How to fill the O’Reilly hole?

[dudacek]

It feels like there hasn’t been a lot of conversation about how we will fill his 21 minutes a night.

• Who takes the important OZone draws?
• Who takes the important DZone draws?
• Who fills in on the PK?
• Who plays the right half-wall on the PP?
• Who matches up against the top offensive players at even strength?
• Who centres the second line at ES?

O’Reilly played in every critical situation: up a goal late, down a goal late, overtime...

Those are some big skates to fill.

[Hoss]

• Who takes the important OZone draws? The DEC. I mean, this is hard to answer. Ideally it’s sometbing Eichel learns quickly. I feel like I’ve heard Okposo is good on the dot but I don’t know if he should even be on the ice in important situations.

 

• Who takes the important DZone draws? Berglund or Sobotka, I imagine.

 

• Who fills in on the PK? Same as above.

 

• Who plays the right half-wall on the PP? I think Reinhart could fill this role immediately.

 

• Who matches up against the top offensive players at even strength? Again, I’m thinking the hope is Berglund is able to keep up early on then later it depends on who steps up.

 

• Who centres the second line at ES? I think this is between Reinhart, Mittelstadt and Berglund right now.

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It feels like there hasn’t been a lot of conversation about how we will fill his 21 minutes a night.

• Who takes the important OZone draws?
• Who takes the important DZone draws?
• Who fills in on the PK?
• Who plays the right half-wall on the PP?
• Who matches up against the top offensive players at even strength?
• Who centres the second line at ES?

O’Reilly played in every critical situation: up a goal late, down a goal late, overtime...

Those are some big skates to fill.

1. Eichel

2. Hopefully Berglund w/ a little support from Eichel & 4C (either Larsson or Sobotka @ this point.  If Berglund isn't up to task, this will be a long season.

3.  Not as worried about this one.  Likely filled by committee.

4.  Either Sheary or Okposo.  The #1 PP was at it's best w/ Okposo on the wall & O'Reilly in the high slot distributing.  Would like to see how Mittelstadt works out in that high slot role.

5.  On the road, likely Eichel.  At home, likely Berglund.  Again, hope he's up for it.

6.  By December, hopefully Mittelstadt.  Prior to that ... ????

[Randall Flagg]

You force Phil to do a more extreme version of what he should have done when ROR was here - split it up among several players. 

Berglund and Sobotka can both take draws. Berglund is a low-event player which suggests he should get d-zone draws. What I mean by that is, when he's on the ice, both his team and the opposing team take fewer shots than they do otherwise. You don't want this happening in the offensive zone, but you absolutely want it happening in the defensive zone. Offensively, just hope Jack gets better at them. 

I never wanted ROR on the PK anyway, but I'm not sure who is good at that, that's not something I know much about 

My take on the power play switch is that we should let Dahlin and Mittelstadt compete on that side of the ice. If Dahlin wins it, you do a more traditional 2-point-men power play setup, with everyone else exactly the same (unless Okposo sucks, then Mitts can just have that spot). If Mittelstadt wins it, continue the same umbrella thing they did with ROR. 

This should be Berglund's 3rd line and whatever 4th line we cobble together, unless that's a line of kids. But it's going to be Jack - as outlined elsewhere, the player he played the most against last year is Sidney Crosby, and everyone behind Crosby on the list was a top line player for their team. Other teams like the matchup because they view Jack as not-great defensively, and Phil appears to be fine with letting Jack learn against the best.

That depends what you call the second line, but if you're referring to offensive line #2, it'll be Casey/ERrod with Okposo, cuz Sam is riding with Jack. But I could see a Berglund line 3 getting more minutes at least at ES.

Edited July 23, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Doohickie]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

 

• Who plays the right half-wall on the PP? I think Reinhart could fill this role immediately.

 

 

• Who centres the second line at ES? I think this is between Reinhart, Mittelstadt and Berglund right now.

If Thompson makes the team, I think he assumes Reino's role as the Guy In Front Of The Net and Reino takes the half-wall.  But I don't think you move Reino from the slot unless there is a good replacement.

 

Second line at ES will be Mittelstadt.  I think the ROR trade indicates that JBot thinks Casey is ready.  If not, Berglund plays those minutes at the beginning of the season until Casey can be worked in.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Rodrigues and Sobotka taking 3 & 4 C until Casey is a full-time 2C.

[dudacek]

I think Dahlin is the logical PP replacement - finding Jack and a Risto for bombs, and Sam and Kyle low.

Another thought: Have we seen Jack on the right side on the PP? I seem to remember we did and it not going well.

The reason I ask is the strongest part of Tage Thompson’s game is supposed to be his bomb from the left circle.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Different payers will play the minute that ROR played in whatever situation.  That will happen.

That said, I don't see anyone on the current roster 'filling' the ROR hole.  He brought a skill set that is not easily replaced.

[dudacek]

I appreciate the Berglund-in-the-defensive-role thoughts, but this board may not realize that the guy has been mostly used as a winger.

I wonder if the braintrust actually pictures him as the boards-working, face-off taking garbage-goal-scoring defensive conscience on one of Jack’s flanks, with Sheary providing the speed on the other. 

In other words, eating up some of O’Reilly’s minutes with a first line that plays against other first lines.

Then maybe some secondary defensive minutes chewed up by a Larsson/Girgensons/Sobotka fourth line?

Edited July 23, 2018 by dudacek

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I appreciate the Berglund-in-the-defensive-role thoughts, but this board may not realize that the guy has been mostly used as a winger.

I wonder if the braintrust actually pictures him as the boards-working, face-off taking garbage-goal-scoring defensive conscience on one of Jack’s flanks, with Sheary providing the speed on the other. 

In other words, eating up some of O’Reilly’s minutes with a first line that plays against other first lines.

Then maybe some secondary defensive minutes chewed up by a Larsson/Girgensons/Sobotka fourth line?

Realize that his primary role in recent years has been on the wing.  But if he isn't pencilled into the 3C role, they are really heading to a world of hurt this year as they are almost forced to use Larsson in that role.  I have more faith in him than others do (really believe the broken bones in his arm affected his game severely last year) but don't want him above 4C on this team (& would prefer to see him beaten out by better players ideally).

And don't want to force Mittelstadt nor Reinhart into a 3C defensive (2 way @ minimum) role.

[bob_sauve28]

You guys are good!

[LGR4GM]

Casey Mittelstadt is better at faceoffs than Jack Eichel. Hopefully that trend continues. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Vodka and Bergy are going to be taking to D zone and PK draws.  Mittelstadt will likely be the pivot on the PP.

I’m imaging by the end of the season, the youngest and highest draft pick PP ever.

Eichel Mittelstadt Reinhart (2nd overall, 8th overall & 2nd overall)

Dahlin & Ristolainen (1st overall and 8th overall)

[spndnchz]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Casey Mittelstadt is better at faceoffs than Jack Eichel. Hopefully that trend continues. 

You do realize that jack took about 800 more faceoffs than Casey right?

[Hoss]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

If Thompson makes the team, I think he assumes Reino's role as the Guy In Front Of The Net and Reino takes the half-wall.  But I don't think you move Reino from the slot unless there is a good replacement.

This is correct, I guess I’m assuming Thompson is going to be asked to do quite a bit. He’s said time and time again he’s going to thrive physically and mentally in an expanded role. I think he’d takenuo a lot of Reinhart’s duties and Reinhart will he asked to step up, as well. Which is a wrinkle in his contract talks but that’s another thread.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think Dahlin is the logical PP replacement - finding Jack and a Risto for bombs, and Sam and Kyle low.

Another thought: Have we seen Jack on the right side on the PP? I seem to remember we did and it not going well.

The reason I ask is the strongest part of Tage Thompson’s game is supposed to be his bomb from the left circle.

His rookie year he probably split his time on either side.:

I believe he only scored one goal from there, versus Detroit in late December/early January. I remember we all hated it and called for Jack to be the trigger man. I don't see an obvious situation where my opinion would differ right now. Jack being on the left and ROR's handedness and positioning were the two main focal points of our power play, with Risto pivoting between them.

Blues fans basically said that Tage was out of his element on their PP, so I wouldn't count on him playing ours until next year or the year after. when he does, I think the obvious position would be the TJ Oshie spot - The Eichel-right-circle is where I want Eichel as a dual passing-shooting threat where Thompson is a pure shooter.

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I appreciate the Berglund-in-the-defensive-role thoughts, but this board may not realize that the guy has been mostly used as a winger.

I wonder if the braintrust actually pictures him as the boards-working, face-off taking garbage-goal-scoring defensive conscience on one of Jack’s flanks, with Sheary providing the speed on the other. 

In other words, eating up some of O’Reilly’s minutes with a first line that plays against other first lines.

Then maybe some secondary defensive minutes chewed up by a Larsson/Girgensons/Sobotka fourth line?

I'm putting together one of those crappy videos I do of Berglund and Sobotka right now, and you're right that his coverage in the d-zone is what a winger does, but  in the games I've watched so far he does take most of the faceoffs. In fact, it appears that they leave him at wing in the NZ, but when he starts in the other two zones they move him because the faceoff is more important, which is interesting. But as far as actual play in the defensive zone from the center position, you just need to hope that you have a guy who is competent at it and put him next to Berglund, IMO. From what we know now I'd have to give it to Zemgus, whose underlying numbers are fine when he has capable linemates, and who only gets hated after stretches with Nolan/Pominville/Larsson etc.

From this same context, I believe it would be a mistake to put him next to Jack, but I'll elaborate on that at a more appropriate time.

19 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

You do realize that jack took about 800 more faceoffs than Casey right?

Yep, that's misleading because the Centers Jack faced the most are, in order:
Crosby 53%
Couturier 52.8%
Trocheck 54.1%
Plekanec 53.3%
Jenner 55.5%
Tavares 52.9%
Hayes 50.5%
Seguin 54.9%
Bergeron 57.3%

Which is not excuse-making for Jack, he needs to get better at those, but that's a tough list. 

Casey had:
Bozak
Vatrano
Fisher
Conacher
White
Nielsen
Mamin?
Haley
Sissons

Bozak is pretty good, but I"m almost positive Erod was center for the whole Toronto game. Same situation with Fisher. The rest of the guys don't strike me as faceoff wizards in the same sense as what Jack built his stats against.

[LGR4GM]

46 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

You do realize that jack took about 800 more faceoffs than Casey right?

Jack has never been noted for being good at faceoffs. And yes I am aware he has played more NHL games than Casey. 

[jsb]

PP.......... Casey takes his spot, the Sabres PP is the only good thing about this team lately. I don't think they're going to change anything. What makes them so good is the versatility of the 4 forwards on it, Casey should be able to hold his own here. If Casey doesn't take his spot, exchange Berglund and Casey for PP1 and 2. I also think Dahlin, Sheary, Berglund, Scandella and Rodrigues will hold down the fort for the 2nd team.

PK..... Sobotka will take his slot

Defensive faceoffs is where we'll miss him the most. This is where Center by committee is our big chance. Housley is going to have to find someone he can trust. Don't be surprised if the wingers take more faceoffs than in the past.

ROR will be missed but he isn't indispensable. They'll be fine.

 

[Huckleberry]

Guys we had a luxury in trading O'Reilly.    Our center depth is amazing coming up.

Eichel - Mittelstadt   and short term we got Berglund - Sobotka.   

Pipeline, Asplund, PU , Malone, Davidson ( this one is supposed to be a real gem)

edit: And we still got Samson if needed, most don't see him as center, I still say he brings good possesion stats and just needs wingers that can finish.

Edited July 24, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Randall Flagg]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Jack has never been noted for being good at faceoffs. And yes I am aware he has played more NHL games than Casey. 

I've literally never heard that said or seen it written about Casey even once in my life. The direct comparison was bizarre given what I outlined a couple posts ago. I'd bet a lot of money that 1v1 Jack would be better at faceoffs than Casey.

35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Guys we had a luxury in trading O'Reilly.    Our center depth is amazing coming up.

Eichel - Mittelstadt   and short term we got Berglund - Sobotka.   

Pipeline, Asplund, PU , Malone, Davidson ( this one is supposed to be a real gem)

edit: And we still got Samson if needed, most don't see him as center, I still say he brings good possesion stats and just needs wingers that can finish.

Our center depth is nothing short of a disaster until Mittelstadt is a capable NHL center AND some prospects hit. Given how every center prospect we've had in the last five decades (note for literalists: this is an exaggeration) besides Eichel has completely floundered at C, I'm stunned at the confidence with which you state this. 

It's Eichel, unknown, and then garbage. 

And before we say Casey is ready now, he played 1.5 periods of official center this period even though the tweeted lineups had him as the "center." In the 1.5 periods he played the full center position his line got scored on and I believe they did not record a single shot attempt for, because they didn't possess the puck in the offensive zone, so Phil swapped him and Rodrigues again. He still took a few faceoffs after that but played LW in game. 

[Huckleberry]

55 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I've literally never heard that said or seen it written about Casey even once in my life. The direct comparison was bizarre given what I outlined a couple posts ago. I'd bet a lot of money that 1v1 Jack would be better at faceoffs than Casey.

Our center depth is nothing short of a disaster until Mittelstadt is a capable NHL center AND some prospects hit. Given how every center prospect we've had in the last five decades (note for literalists: this is an exaggeration) besides Eichel has completely floundered at C, I'm stunned at the confidence with which you state this. 

It's Eichel, unknown, and then garbage. 

And before we say Casey is ready now, he played 1.5 periods of official center this period even though the tweeted lineups had him as the "center." In the 1.5 periods he played the full center position his line got scored on and I believe they did not record a single shot attempt for, because they didn't possess the puck in the offensive zone, so Phil swapped him and Rodrigues again. He still took a few faceoffs after that but played LW in game. 

Yeah its almost August and I'm turning into an optimist again, in two weeks I'll be telling everyone to plan the parade ?

[nfreeman]

This probably won’t happen until the 2nd half of the season if at all, but I’d sure like to see Olofsson opposite Eichel on the PP getting fed for the one-timer.  

[nfreeman]

29 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yeah its almost August and I'm turning into an optimist again, in two weeks I'll be telling everyone to plan the parade ?

 

I’m right there with you sir.  Flagg’s soul has been eaten by the White Walkers.  Dahlin will have to save him.  

[Hoss]

12 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This probably won’t happen until the 2nd half of the season if at all, but I’d sure like to see Olofsson opposite Eichel on the PP getting fed for the one-timer.  

Thompson, Eichel and Olofsson are all noted as having wicked shots. If TT 2.0 and Olofsson pan out our power play should be consistently around the top of the league. And Dahlin will be a huge part of that.

Olofsson - Reinhart - Thompson

Eichel - Dahlin

Reinhart stands in front while everyone else throws the puck at him.

[dudacek]

The second and 3rd line centre positions are huge question marks.

We know Jack can play 1st and Larry 4th.  None of Reinhart, Mittelstadt, Berglund, Girgensons, Sobotka, Rodrigues, Asplund or anyone else is a known commodity in the middle, at least not recently in the NHL.

Edited July 24, 2018 by dudacek

[3putt]

I suspect we are looking at this differently than Sabres management.  We are assumming we are rolling traditonal center wing combos in 2/1 relationship.  Maybe the approach they will be taking is akin to Bylsma’s pair approach but with three guys.  That is find 3 guys who work well together and not worry about positions.  If one is better on left dot draws, they take left dot draws etc.  what I think they are going for is combos that can play at pace together and in sync.  Thus not all the lines will be burners but will need to apply consistent pressure as a unit.  This allows for dmen to push play and remain in the zone to press the issue while a forward rotates back.  Sort of a perpetual power play.  If we are trying to replace RORs production we are going to be disappointed unless we change the approach thus lessening the need that he more than adequately filled.  

Then again maybe they are all in for Hughes who knows.  Tough day. New owners sent in the hatchett men and we lost a third of our people today.  Good people too.  Can’t sleep.  Maybe another walk around the park.