TSN: Sabres 2018 Game Plan

[sweetlou]

So would you trade the 1st in 2019 for Grubauer, or the 2nd in 2018?

 

Grubauer is an RFA, so Sabres would have some control.

Edited May 29, 2018 by sweetlou

[Taro T]

So would you trade the 1st in 2019 for Grubauer, or the 2nd in 2018?

 

Grubauer is an RFA, so Sabres would have some control.

I'd expect it would cost that SJ 1st for Grubauer. Would probably roll the die on that trade. (Especially if, should that pick become a 20-20 lottery pick, the Sabres have the option to keep that pick or their own non-lottery protected 2021 1st.)

[dudacek]

That pick or 32 is probably approximate market value for Grubauer, just as it was for Lehner and Andersen and Jones.

Thing I keep coming back to is we have our young goalie poised to emerge. Let’s see if he does before we pay for another one.

[Derrico]

How much better is Grubauer than Ullmark?  Ullmark is coming off an AHL All-star season and he's looked great the limited time he's played for the Sabres during call ups.

 

Grubauer has an NHL 2.34 and .922 in 102 Games Played

Ullmark has an NHL 2.53 and .917 in 26 Games Played

 

I think the Goals against can be explained away by the quality of the teams they played for.  Sabres barely have had an AHL quality D over the past few years.  I could see many being worried about giving the reigns to Ullmark to be the starter next year.  But isn't there similar uncertainty with Grubauer?  He's never played more than 35 games in a season.

 

Myself, I keep the asset, sign someone like Bernier and hope Ullmark can handle 50 games.  We have been grooming him for this roll for a couple of seasons now.  Hell, JBotts gave Vegas a pick NOT to take Ullmark.  Sign a veteran and see what the kid has.

 

Edit - dudacek, if I wasn't so long winded I would have beat you by that much.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Derrico

[dudacek]

LOL. I’m with you 100 percent.

Veteran short-term safety net is my preferred option: a Biron to play with Ullmarks Miller.

Edited May 29, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

How much better is Grubauer than Ullmark?  Ullmark is coming off an AHL All-star season and he's looked great the limited time he's played for the Sabres during call ups.

 

Grubauer has an NHL 2.34 and .922 in 102 Games Played

Ullmark has an NHL 2.53 and .917 in 26 Games Played

 

I think the Goals against can be explained away by the quality of the teams they played for.  Sabres barely have had an AHL quality D over the past few years.  I could see many being worried about giving the reigns to Ullmark to be the starter next year.  But isn't there similar uncertainty with Grubauer?  He's never played more than 35 games in a season.

 

Myself, I keep the asset, sign someone like Bernier and hope Ullmark can handle 50 games.  We have been grooming him for this roll for a couple of seasons now.  Hell, JBotts gave Vegas a pick NOT to take Ullmark.  Sign a veteran and see what the kid has.

 

Edit - ###### dudacek, if I wasn't so long winded I would have beat you by that much.

Agree,

 

It's time to see what Ullmark has and after looking at our cap situation, I see no reason to mess around trying to unload Bogo.  Instead lets sign someone with experience for a reasonable amount and see what happens.

[Randall Flagg]

Bogosian is more a performance/availability issue than a cap issue. 

 

I'm actually far less interested in Grubauer than I was a few weeks ago. 

[woods-racer]

Didn't Bogo have major hip surgery?

 

The kind of surgery that if it doesn't go almost perfect his career is over?

 

Hasn't he been battling this for a few years?

 

Giving him a shot at getting *good* again and keeping  1st round draft picks is just fine by me. Trading anything for middling goalies is risky and screams desperation. 

[nfreeman]

I would trade the SJ #1 for Holtby or Grubauer in a heartbeat. 

 

Not Rinne though.

[dudacek]

I would trade the SJ #1 for Holtby or Grubauer in a heartbeat. 

 

Not Rinne though.

I can’t remember what your reaction was to the Lehner trade when it happened.

I assume you are OK with Grubauer because you’ve seen enough of him to feel confident he’s not going to be another Lehner?

His resume at this point is pretty similar to Lehners when we made that trade.

 

Also, where does Ullmark fit into your thinking in that trade?

[nfreeman]

I can’t remember what your reaction was to the Lehner trade when it happened.

I assume you are OK with Grubauer because you’ve seen enough of him to feel confident he’s not going to be another Lehner?

His resume at this point is pretty similar to Lehners when we made that trade.

 

Also, where does Ullmark fit into your thinking in that trade?

 

When the Lehner trade happened, I thought it was a slight overpay, but not egregiously so, and I was generally OK with it because I thought GMTM had identified his guy -- who had pretty decent credentials -- and gone out and gotten him.  I was willing to give GMTM the benefit of the doubt on scouting and knowing his guy, which I think is the kind of deference one has to give to a GM.

 

As for Gruby's similarities to Lehner -- this is very true, as I think it would be for any young, rising #2 goalie that the Sabres might acquire -- although Gruby comes from a better organization than Lehner (and GMTM for that matter) came from.  I'd rather get Holtby than Gruby, but if JBott identifies Gruby as his guy, then I'm fine with Gruby.

 

The broader point of course is that I'm OK trading a low first-rounder for the guy that the Sabres' GM thinks is the long-term answer in goal -- understanding that the GM might be wrong on his guy -- as GMTM was about Lehner.  That's just how it goes. 

 

As for Ullmark, I'm strongly against going into the season with him as the clear #1 and only a CJ-like backup for him.  I think there's at least a 50% chance that Ullmark does not have the right stuff, and if that turns out to be the case, it will be another wasted season, filled with losing that seeps even further into Jack, Reino, Risto and everyone else on the roster.  So I'm really hoping for Gruby, Holtby or someone else who will come into camp with at least a strong shot at the #1 job.

[GASabresIUFAN]

When the Lehner trade happened, I thought it was a slight overpay, but not egregiously so, and I was generally OK with it because I thought GMTM had identified his guy -- who had pretty decent credentials -- and gone out and gotten him. I was willing to give GMTM the benefit of the doubt on scouting and knowing his guy, which I think is the kind of deference one has to give to a GM.

 

As for Gruby's similarities to Lehner -- this is very true, as I think it would be for any young, rising #2 goalie that the Sabres might acquire -- although Gruby comes from a better organization than Lehner (and GMTM for that matter) came from. I'd rather get Holtby than Gruby, but if JBott identifies Gruby as his guy, then I'm fine with Gruby.

 

The broader point of course is that I'm OK trading a low first-rounder for the guy that the Sabres' GM thinks is the long-term answer in goal -- understanding that the GM might be wrong on his guy -- as GMTM was about Lehner. That's just how it goes.

 

As for Ullmark, I'm strongly against going into the season with him as the clear #1 and only a CJ-like backup for him. I think there's at least a 50% chance that Ullmark does not have the right stuff, and if that turns out to be the case, it will be another wasted season, filled with losing that seeps even further into Jack, Reino, Risto and everyone else on the roster. So I'm really hoping for Gruby, Holtby or someone else who will come into camp with at least a strong shot at the #1 job.

I think this is the best argument I’ve seen for going out and getting an established goaltender. I don’t think anyone, not Jbot, not PH, not the Pegulas, not the players or the fans want another wasted season.

 

Good goaltending can go along way toward preventing another horror show and there are legit questions as to whether Linus is ready to be the man. I also want a step up from CJ, but I’m still not convinced that spending another 1st for a career backup makes sense. If I’m getting Ullmark insurance I want someone who has No 1 experience.

[Derrico]

When the Lehner trade happened, I thought it was a slight overpay, but not egregiously so, and I was generally OK with it because I thought GMTM had identified his guy -- who had pretty decent credentials -- and gone out and gotten him.  I was willing to give GMTM the benefit of the doubt on scouting and knowing his guy, which I think is the kind of deference one has to give to a GM.

 

As for Gruby's similarities to Lehner -- this is very true, as I think it would be for any young, rising #2 goalie that the Sabres might acquire -- although Gruby comes from a better organization than Lehner (and GMTM for that matter) came from.  I'd rather get Holtby than Gruby, but if JBott identifies Gruby as his guy, then I'm fine with Gruby.

 

The broader point of course is that I'm OK trading a low first-rounder for the guy that the Sabres' GM thinks is the long-term answer in goal -- understanding that the GM might be wrong on his guy -- as GMTM was about Lehner.  That's just how it goes. 

 

As for Ullmark, I'm strongly against going into the season with him as the clear #1 and only a CJ-like backup for him.  I think there's at least a 50% chance that Ullmark does not have the right stuff, and if that turns out to be the case, it will be another wasted season, filled with losing that seeps even further into Jack, Reino, Risto and everyone else on the roster.  So I'm really hoping for Gruby, Holtby or someone else who will come into camp with at least a strong shot at the #1 job.

I can get behind wanting a legit #1.  But our very own GM gave Vegas a (albeit low round) pick to not take Ullmark.  He obviously has to have some belief in him.  I don't get the Gruby love.  He may be a great goalie next year.  But he also has never proven this.  He is no more of a sure thing that Ullmark IMO.

[Randall Flagg]

I think this is the best argument I’ve seen for going out and getting an established goaltender. I don’t think anyone, not Jbot, not PH, not the Pegulas, not the players or the fans want another wasted season.

 

Good goaltending can go along way toward preventing another horror show and there are legit questions as to whether Linus is ready to be the man. I also want a step up from CJ, but I’m still not convinced that spending another 1st for a career backup makes sense. If I’m getting Ullmark insurance I want someone who has No 1 experience.

It's gotta be Holtby then, eh? They've got Grubauer ready to step in, due for a raise, and just brought over their first round pick goalie. They probably want to try to keep Carlson. No other team is in prime position to trade an established goaltender as far as I know.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[nfreeman]

I can get behind wanting a legit #1.  But our very own GM gave Vegas a (albeit low round) pick to not take Ullmark.  He obviously has to have some belief in him.  I don't get the Gruby love.  He may be a great goalie next year.  But he also has never proven this.  He is no more of a sure thing that Ullmark IMO.

 

The bolded is very fair.  My thinking is that getting Gruby would give the Sabres two chances that a young guy will step up and seize the opportunity next year instead of one shot at it.  If it's Ullmark?  Then we may have wasted a low #1 pick next year, but we'll have a good goalie in Ullmark and Gruby will still probably be either a decent #2 for the Sabres or an asset that can be traded.

[dudacek]

When the Lehner trade happened, I thought it was a slight overpay, but not egregiously so, and I was generally OK with it because I thought GMTM had identified his guy -- who had pretty decent credentials -- and gone out and gotten him. I was willing to give GMTM the benefit of the doubt on scouting and knowing his guy, which I think is the kind of deference one has to give to a GM.

 

As for Gruby's similarities to Lehner -- this is very true, as I think it would be for any young, rising #2 goalie that the Sabres might acquire -- although Gruby comes from a better organization than Lehner (and GMTM for that matter) came from. I'd rather get Holtby than Gruby, but if JBott identifies Gruby as his guy, then I'm fine with Gruby.

 

The broader point of course is that I'm OK trading a low first-rounder for the guy that the Sabres' GM thinks is the long-term answer in goal -- understanding that the GM might be wrong on his guy -- as GMTM was about Lehner. That's just how it goes.

 

As for Ullmark, I'm strongly against going into the season with him as the clear #1 and only a CJ-like backup for him. I think there's at least a 50% chance that Ullmark does not have the right stuff, and if that turns out to be the case, it will be another wasted season, filled with losing that seeps even further into Jack, Reino, Risto and everyone else on the roster. So I'm really hoping for Gruby, Holtby or someone else who will come into camp with at least a strong shot at the #1 job.

I agree with every word in this.

And only a day after getting Blue to concede a point.

Strange days for me on Sabrespace ????

 

Also great points in the posts to follow.

Holtby as a cap dump for the Kane pick or 32, with a lesser plus would be fabulous from my perspective.

So probably unlikely. But we need an answer in goal and we need it this year.

Edited May 30, 2018 by dudacek

[Weave]

If the Kane trade ends up being Kane for Gruby or Holtby, it will have been a hockey trade that I can get behind.

[dudacek]

I think the Sabres head into the off-season looking to correct four major issues:

 

It will take a few years to come to fruition, but the first was addressed when Bill Daley flipped the card over with news that we’d got our first-pairing defenceman.

 

The second is the lack of leadership and accountability in the dressing room.

When I hear Sam Reinhart interviewed, I hear someone waiting for somebody else to fix this. I don’t hear someone stepping up to say he is part of the problem and part of the solution. When I hear Ryan O’Reilly interviewed, I hear someone who has no idea how to fix it. I hear someone fixated solely on himself, not on his team.

I think pretty much all of the core falls into one or both of those categories.

 

Leadership is usually fixed by changing the voices, either through trades, or the coach. I think the decision to let go of Kane is part of Botterill's solution and I am certain he is thoroughly exploring a further core shakeup. But I also believe change can come from more maturity in the room. It is incumbent on Botterill and Housley to challenge the current group to man up and to grow up and become a little more Drury - call each other out and show they truly are sick of losing. It doesn’t stop with him, but the person in the best position to make that happen is Jack Eichel.

 

The third issue has been covered off very well in the depth and tank threads: this team gets absolutely nothing from the bottom half of its forward corps. We need at least three real NHL middle-six forwards. Maybe Casey is one. Maybe one of the other kids will step up. We have a lot of them. Maybe we can find a David Perron or an Erik Haula off the cast-off pile. But we cannot afford carrying two Johan Larssons in our bottom six anymore, let alone the eight Johan Larssons we carried last year. We need to be active on this front this summer, with real results. Another Pouliot or Josefson isn’t going to cut it.

 

Finally, our goaltending sucks. Lehner went from mediocre to bad and his obvious problems with confidence and focus are poison to a young team. We’re at too fragile a point in our existence to trust this team to a fragile goaltender. And I don’t remember a worse performance by a Sabre goalie than what we got from Chad. Love Linus, hope he is our future. But asking him to be the post-lockout Ryan Miller is too risky as well. We can’t skimp on his partner. Identify the right guy and go and get him.

 

We have better pieces than the dumpster fire of last year showed. We just need more from them and we need more pieces.

Edited May 31, 2018 by dudacek

[pi2000]

I think the Sabres head into the off-season looking to correct four major issues:

 

It will take a few years to come to fruition, but the first was addressed when Bill Daley flipped the card over with news that we’d got our first-pairing defenceman.

 

The second is the lack of leadership and accountability in the dressing room.

When I hear Sam Reinhart interviewed, I hear someone waiting for somebody else to fix this. I don’t hear someone stepping up to say he is part of the problem and part of the solution. When I hear Ryan O’Reilly interviewed, I hear someone who has no idea how to fix it. I hear someone fixated solely on himself, not on his team.

I think pretty much all of the core falls into one or both of those categories.

 

Leadership is usually fixed by changing the voices, either through trades, or the coach. I think the decision to let go of Kane is part of Botterill's solution and I am certain he is thoroughly exploring a further core shakeup. But I also believe change can come from more maturity in the room. It is incumbent on Botterill and Housley to challenge the current group to man up and to grow up and become a little more Drury - call each other out and show they truly are sick of losing. It doesn’t stop with him, but the person in the best position to make that happen is Jack Eichel.

 

The third issue has been covered off very well in the depth and tank threads: this team gets absolutely nothing from the bottom half of its forward corps. We need at least three real NHL middle-six forwards. Maybe Casey is one. Maybe one of the other kids will step up. We have a lot of them. Maybe we can find a David Perron or an Erik Haula off the cast-off pile. But we cannot afford carrying two Johan Larssons in our bottom six anymore, let alone the eight Johan Larssons we carried last year. We need to be active on this front this summer, with real results. Another Pouliot or Josefson isn’t going to cut it.

 

Finally, our goaltending sucks. Lehner went from mediocre to bad and his obvious problems with confidence and focus are poison to a young team. We’re at too fragile a point in our existence to trust this team to a fragile goaltender. And I don’t remember a worse performance by a Sabre goalie than what we got from Chad. Love Linus, hope he is our future. But asking him to be the post-lockout Ryan Miller is too risky as well. We can’t skimp on his partner. Identify the right guy and go and get him.

 

We have better pieces than the dumpster fire of last year showed. We just need more from them and we need more pieces.

 

 

Well stated, I generally agree with all points.

 

This team isn't as far off as we think.   They lost 20 something games last season by one goal.     It wasn't like they were getting blown out of the building night in and night out.    They would play down to their competition and never push back when they needed to.    Part of that is youth, part of that is leadership and coaching.     I'm willing to give Housley 20 games to show some significant improvement in play because he hasn't shown to be part of the solution.

[R_Dudley]

Good thread and some very good points and idea's floated around on ways to improve.

 

I'm not confident they can fix it all next season so I agree with looking for another potential no 1 Goalie first.

 

I agree that makes the second priority secondary scoring. Here is the biggest unknown. As some of you have said we need some of the kids to step up and I am hoping we use some of the cap not spent on a goalie to bring in another 1 or 2 experienced forwards that actually can contribute.

 

I am hoping the defensive additions already coming Pilut and Dahlin along with someone from the farm will improve the back end. 

 

You put all those ingredients together with some new assistant coaches(PP at least , Goalie? defense?) and shake them up in camp and roll out the best we got and see where that puts us.

 

If the returning players come back in top shape having worked on the things the coaches talked to them about working on over the summer I think we could have a fun competitive team to watch next year on ice. And I could live with that.   

[Randall Flagg]

I'd love to find oooooone more defender too. If Botterill could pull off something like he did for Scandella, add 2 depth forwards, and trade for Holtby, I'd be thrilled. 

The wildcards that can change EVERYTHING about our offseason thread are a core trade (Risto, ROR, Reinhart) or the addition of John Tavares' nephew.

[LGR4GM]

I'd love to find oooooone more defender too. If Botterill could pull off something like he did for Scandella, add 2 depth forwards, and trade for Holtby, I'd be thrilled.

 

The wildcards that can change EVERYTHING about our offseason thread are a core trade (Risto, ROR, Reinhart) or the addition of John Tavares' nephew.

I just read a laughable Twitter account claiming John Tavares is signing for 70-75mil with the Laughs.

[Randall Flagg]

I just read a laughable Twitter account claiming John Tavares is signing for 70-75mil with the Laughs.

I wouldn't even want Tavares if I was a Leafs fan, I don't know why they're still pushing the "Toronto boy coming home" narrative. 

Gotta save that cap space for defense (Doughty)

[Thorny]

When the Lehner trade happened, I thought it was a slight overpay, but not egregiously so, and I was generally OK with it because I thought GMTM had identified his guy -- who had pretty decent credentials -- and gone out and gotten him.  I was willing to give GMTM the benefit of the doubt on scouting and knowing his guy, which I think is the kind of deference one has to give to a GM.

 

As for Gruby's similarities to Lehner -- this is very true, as I think it would be for any young, rising #2 goalie that the Sabres might acquire -- although Gruby comes from a better organization than Lehner (and GMTM for that matter) came from.  I'd rather get Holtby than Gruby, but if JBott identifies Gruby as his guy, then I'm fine with Gruby.

 

The broader point of course is that I'm OK trading a low first-rounder for the guy that the Sabres' GM thinks is the long-term answer in goal -- understanding that the GM might be wrong on his guy -- as GMTM was about Lehner.  That's just how it goes. 

 

As for Ullmark, I'm strongly against going into the season with him as the clear #1 and only a CJ-like backup for him.  I think there's at least a 50% chance that Ullmark does not have the right stuff, and if that turns out to be the case, it will be another wasted season, filled with losing that seeps even further into Jack, Reino, Risto and everyone else on the roster.  So I'm really hoping for Gruby, Holtby or someone else who will come into camp with at least a strong shot at the #1 job.

Agree with everything here. We need someone with at LEAST as good a shot of seizing the starter role as Ullmark.

[nfreeman]

Excellent breakdown from Duda as always.

 

On the leadership/accountability point, which I agree is critical: I know it’s not fair or realistic for this year, but this is another area where I would love to see Dahlin, who it sounds like takes the game very seriously, set a new tone.