dudacek Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 The Sabres have not played better over the course of this year than they did over the course of last year and it is entirely possible Housley is a coach. Dan Bylsma was definitely a coach and it also possible that in order to take two steps forward the Sabres had to first take one step back. The Sabres have played better over the past six weeks than they did over the start of this year and the end of last year. They took more shots allowed fewer shots and were in more games and it is my opinion they were starting to look like a team starting to trust a system. Then they lost Jack so we may never really know if it was progress or a blip. Doesn’t change the fact that what they need more than anything else is more talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 The results speak for themselves. In theory: Bylsma’s ceiling may have been ~90 points. A better, more modern system would have no such ceiling. That’s the theory anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 This is where I'm at. I maintain that (perhaps subconsciously) people want it to be a mental/chemistry issue because it's a heck of a lot easier to swap out a couple pieces than it is to add six major parts. The need to add many significant cogs indicates a longer time line to competitive hockey than a quick culture change. The team stinks. The team doesn't stink because it's unhappy; it's unhappy because it stinks. Edit: this team needs two top-pair defensemen, two top-6 wingers, a goalie, and a 3C. I would expect that the number of players that need to be changed out is going to be many regardless of whether it is a personality issue or a talent issue (and talent HAS to be at least in part to blame either way). There is a significant number of players that are still here from the days of not playing Bylsma's system, and today they are not consistently playing Housley's system. IF it is a locker room issue, I suspect it is something that will need to be removed entirely and supplanted with hockey chemo. So, no small fix there, IMO if that is the issue. Because the irrational hatred of Bylsma around here spurred on by a vocal minority has people actually believing that we're somehow playing better this year with him gone. It's a crock. We're on pace for less wins, less goals, more goals against, less shots per game, and I don't care to look at what else were are worse at this year. How exactly are we better? I'm here as well. It may very well be that Bylsma's system was not conducive to today's NHL, but 1. we very rarely saw the players actually play his system so I don't see how we can judge it when the players refused to use it, and 2. Coaching is NOT about jamming a system down the players throats that they are ill equipped to execute. It is about adapting your system so you can win with the players you've got. I suppose we as a fan base have a ways to go before we are valuing actual wins again. I find it weird that we'll crucify Bills coach after Bills coach for using our players to do things they are ill equipped to do, yet we vilified Bylsma and praised Housley for the exact opposite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 From Elliott Friedman 31 thoughts 25. Some of the scouts/reporters who were watching Los Angeles at Buffalo last weekend said they haven’t seen a general manager all year as upset as Jason Botterill was during that game He was so mad he did nothing at all. Outside of slam a door that is. :flirt: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 haha I meant to write "hot seat." So far, he's been on a seat of sorts. https://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Funforgettable-media-unforgettabletra.netdna-ssl.com%2Fmedia%2Fcatalog%2Fproduct%2Fcache%2F1%2Fimage%2F9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95%2Fu%2Fn%2Funforgettable_product_shoot_day4-870.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unforgettable.org%2Ftoilet-seat-red&docid=NP_B5x-k3p41IM&tbnid=R5aF-7OLfC8MyM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwi9nJWa0bnZAhUICawKHQqDAbQQMwjQASgLMAs..i&w=1000&h=1000&hl=en&bih=637&biw=1366&q=toilet%20seat&ved=0ahUKEwi9nJWa0bnZAhUICawKHQqDAbQQMwjQASgLMAs&iact=mrc&uact=8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 (edited) Yep. It is a crock. The problem is that it doesn't fit the narrative that the players hated Bylsma and that Housley's system and player friendly approach was somehow going to open the floodgates and unleash the true potential of this group. Reality is that they're worse in every single category... and it's not even close. Here's a simpler narrative: I hated the way Bylsma had the team play, and I'd rather see the team struggle with flashes of enjoyable hockey than maybe squeak into the playoffs playing his miserable system. Edited February 22, 2018 by MattiPaj Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Here's a simpler narrative: I hated the way Bylsma had the team play, and I'd rather see the team struggle with flashes of enjoyable hockey than maybe squeak into the playoffs playing his miserable system. Wait, wuh? You'd rather lose with style than win ugly? It's official. The tank has ruined this fan base. They should fold the team just to save us from ourselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 (edited) Here's a simpler narrative: I hated the way Bylsma had the team play, and I'd rather see the team struggle with flashes of enjoyable hockey than maybe squeak into the playoffs playing his miserable system. Wait, wuh? You'd rather lose with style than win ugly? It's official. The tank has ruined this fan base. They should fold the team just to save us from ourselves. There's something to this, though. The idea that Bylsma's vision/system had a high(er) floor and low ceiling of wins, success. The idea that Housley's vision/system has a low(er) floor and higher ceiling of wins, success. Now, mind you: I'm not sure whether Housley is capable of delivering on anything. But that was the idea, I think. It's not unlike a Bills fan saying they want to move on from 8 or 9 win teams and Tyrod Taylor, and see the team take a shot at becoming a team capable of hanging 11 or 12 wins. There are more risks associated with the latter path -- but more upside as well. Edited February 22, 2018 by That Aud Smell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 There's something to this, though. The idea that Bylsma's vision/system had a high(er) floor and low ceiling of wins, success. The idea that Housley's vision/system has a low(er) floor and higher ceiling of wins, success. Now, mind you: I'm not sure whether Housley is capable of delivering on anything. But that was the idea, I think. It's not unlike a Bills fan saying they want to move on from 8 or 9 win teams and Tyrod Taylor, and see the team take a shot at becoming a team capable of hanging 11 or 12 wins. There are more risks associated with the latter path -- but more upside as well. What risks?,... I mean, unless you believe that there is no way we could actually be good so in order to win we have to roll the dice on some all or nothing plan. There are no risks. Just get good. it's pretty simple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 What risks?,... I mean, unless you believe that there is no way we could actually be good so in order to win we have to roll the dice on some all or nothing plan. There are no risks. Just get good. it's pretty simple Talking out my ass as usual here, but hasn't just about every other team in the league (and in major NA team sports) done exactly that at least ONCE in the last seven years? Get good, that is. What's the problem here? What's wrong with Dad? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampD Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Talking out my ass as usual here, but hasn't just about every other team in the league (and in major NA team sports) done exactly that at least ONCE in the last seven years? Get good, that is. What's the problem here? What's wrong with Dad? You know why JBots slammed a door? It was the moment when he realized that the hole the Sabres dug by tanking was so deep, that his job was no longer to climb out, it was to shore up the sides from collapsing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millbank Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 He was so mad he did nothing at all. Outside of slam a door that is. :flirt: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsixspd Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 He was trying to show Lehner what to do Yeah, but unlike Botterill, unfortunately Lehner would probably hurt himself slamming a door, and miss 6 to 8 games. 8-10 if he already had a head cold and had the sniffles too to compound his suffering. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dominator Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 I think there's a parallel between the Sabres and Bills and what fans want as far as an approach to things. Under Bylsma, Sabres took an approach similar to the Bills of the past handful of years... play conservative (ground n' pound), shore up weaknesses (build around QB but not through QB), play things tight and hope that you make less mistakes than the other team. As we saw from the Bills, that will keep you in most games and even potentially squeak into the playoffs, but you aren't a true contender looking to achieve the ultimate goal on a consistent basis. Under Housley, the team is (hopefully) taking an approach of a team like the Steelers/Pats who attack more, potentially leave themselves vulnerable but are always in play to contend for a title. Obviously the Sabres don't have the necessary pieces in place yet to do this successfully, but I think that's the blueprint. It's like going from the wing-t offense to a spread attack. Sorry for the football similes but that's how my noggin works Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millbank Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Let’s just see what happens at trade deadline and going forward into next season There have been enough comments about the toxic nature of this teams dressing room that both new coach and General Manager inherited, its not just idle gossip . Lets hope the GM will do his job and just maybe the Coach will have opportunity to work with more than a dysfunctional mess . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 What risks?,... I mean, unless you believe that there is no way we could actually be good so in order to win we have to roll the dice on some all or nothing plan. There are no risks. Just get good. it's pretty simple What risks? Well, the risks associated with falling flat on your face when you take off the training wheels and try to run with the big dogs. It's a pretty simple risk/benefit analysis: Do we play it safe® so that maybe we squeak out 93 points and sneak into the playoffs, or do we work to play a style that the top teams play and risk being exposed as a talent-poor and/or insufficiently-professional team? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 (edited) I haven't watched any games since Jack got hurt, but overall, after the initial sting of realizing how depleted the lineup is, I've definitely enjoyed watching them more this year. And it's not because of the tank or because I'm a loser who likes losing, the losing part sucks. But the levels of frustration that came with watching this all game: Left me in a state of rage that you all probably remember, and they were enough to fire a coach after just two seasons of a five year mega deal, the second biggest contract ever given to a coach, with complete understanding by all Sabres fans that don't get approximated to 3 by engineers. Why is this dreary season easier on the eyes for me? Because watching a hockey game isn't an instantaneous zip to the end and a peek at the score tally. There are 3 hours of ups and downs that string together and give the final result that we love so much that we talk about it on here all summer. Most of those highs and lows come at even strength, where the fluidity of our play has (up til Jack's injury) gotten better and better as the season has gone on. I think Phil finally has them learning to play structured team hockey, and I think part of the reason it took so long is because of those video clips above. He complained earlier this year that he didn't realize how far they had to come, that they had to literally go back to basics like "how to catch a pass of the boards" and how to pass to a moving target 5 feet away, and so on. Things that should have been coached into the group of players that largely stayed the same throughout the previous 162 games. Things that I and many others complained about the lack practicing or incorporating into the dreaded "systemmmmm" (I know y'all missed that word) for months on end last year. I think most of the time my opinions are crap but this is one I stand firmly next to. And I think the standings misery we see correlates to different things than our 5v5 play, which Phil has improved structurally. The 5v5 goal scoring is slightly down overall, but I attribute that to lack of depth, and here's why: Our stars are having better 5v5 seasons than ever before. Evidence: ROR is pacing for 38 even strength points this year, had 29 last year. If possession metrics are your thing, even though his dzone start rate and quality of competition are higher and roughly the same as last year, his possession stats are the best they've been as a Sabre. Jack had 38 ES points in 53 games after 33 in 61 the year before. He also was nearly a positive possession player, sitting well above his previous high in these metrics. Kyle is pacing for 28 even though he's clearly a step slower than last year when he had 22, after being in ICU for a while. Sam is doing worse, because he regressed for half of a season independent of anyone else's influence. I will neither extrapolate his season total or his last 8 weeks, but he'll probably end up about the same production at even strength, with much better possession numbers, downright good ones actually. The team has the puck and shoots the puck more when he's on the ice than the other team does, and my eye test of Samson over the last 8 weeks agrees with this. This didn't happen with any Sabre forward during the last two seasons that wasn't a ridiculously sheltered Moulson, or Carrier. Kane is Kane. He plays the same no matter the system, and is in line for a roughly 3 point increase at even strength on last year, a year in which he was top 5 in ES goals for most of the season. And he's gone. These are our "scorers" and they've all been better outside of Sam being in a rut centering Seth Griffith and Pouliot for 20 games. Since coming out of that rut, Sam is a better ES player than he's ever been. So with this uniform increase in production from all of our key guys at the most critical state of a hockey game, why has the scoring dipped? The answer is simply depth. I often snarked that Bylsma hockey is why Gionta practically kept pace with freaking Eichel in scoring at even strength during their time here together, but Gionta was still a legitimately good even strength 3rd line player while he was here. For large swaths of 15-16, Foligno-Larsson-Gionta took tough minutes and scored as much as either of ROR or Jack's line did. in 2015-16, we received 192 points from guys not listed above. Last year was 162. This year we're pacing for 130 points from players that aren't those guys. Our depth is producing at 68% of what it was when we last felt like this team was going in the right direction, and that was still a mediocre number even THEN. 68% of mediocrity. We have Rodrigues and Wilson in our top six at the same time and Nolan playing 10 minutes a night, with Larsson incapable of basic muscle skills in his left arm because he destroyed his wrist and elbow last year. This is where our even strength scoring went. And even with this, our ES play is still better than it has been. Even in the defensive zone, where our shot suppression has risen from 28th in the NHL last year to 13th this year. Phil actually does teach his guys things, at least. I don't mean to whitewash everything he has done, there are several major problems I have had with him since his hiring, but ES play is not one of them. It's just so nice seeing them attempt to use 5 guys and to set things back up when they break down: I don't have big long clips like last year, I just don't have the time. That last project took me 50 hours. But I grabbed the above clip because I thought it was emblematic of this season. It was something we saw nothing of previously, an honest emphasis on keeping the puck the way good teams to, with a mistake by Pominville in the form of a bad pass, but always several options available and trying their best to keep the puck. Less of what Phil called "cheating" and what I call "hitting the opposing blue line to tip in the stretch pass", and more support. This type of hockey, when perfected and supplemented with talent, is what allows teams like Chicago and LA to win cups while taking literally 60% of all shot attempts that happen in their games. This isn't even a fancy stat. If you have the puck more and shoot it more over 82 games you will simply win more. We were never going to win by averaging 20 failed stretch passes per game and riding the 5th best power play in the last two decades. Because when that power play had us climb to within 4 points of a playoff position in mid February, and then faltered slightly, at the most critical time of the year, we finished the last 30% of the season pacing for WORSE than we're going to finish THIS year. Get gud at ES because they don't call penalties in the playoffs. I really think that our woes this year compared to last are because of goaltending and the power play. We're going to lose about 17 goals for from last year power playing, which, for a team that's lost the league-most one goal games, probably accounts for at least 8 wins on its own. We have gone from .921 to .905 in save percentage despite allowing fewer shots in general (remember, 28th in the league -> 13th in the league) and from high-danger areas. We're pacing to allow 2066 shots on goal. With last year's save percentage this would have allowed 163 goals. This year it's going to give us 196. These two aspects of our game have swung 58 goals in the wrong direction relative to last season. Our penalty kill will be about the same, give or take 5 goals, when this year is done. So if you just give us last season's non-ES elements, instead of looking to be -73, our goal differential would be -15. This is twice as good as last season, and this is why we "sorta look better" as I've often seen remarked in GDTs, despite our record being so poor. It makes sense. It only took us 51 games to outshoot the other team more than we did in 82 last year. The Blues and Bruins recently commented on our improved structure being tougher to play against when paired with effort. The challenge for Phil is now a.) getting guys healthy and b.) keeping this effort up in a group of players now known for often abandoning it, and the challenge for Jason is now filling in the grand canyon gaps in our roster, which, as Swamp just stated, is a much taller task than any Sabres fan or worker ever wanted to believe it is (###### the tank). There have been promising signs but we done goofed and are going to continue to pay for a long time. Edited February 22, 2018 by Randall Flagg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 You. You're good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 holy jesus. i need to schedule a poop and print the page to read that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 #Snowday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 I love it when Flagg writes a treatise that says my eye test is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Talking out my ass as usual here, but hasn't just about every other team in the league (and in major NA team sports) done exactly that at least ONCE in the last seven years? Get good, that is. What's the problem here? What's wrong with Dad? It rhymes with "spank." You know why JBots slammed a door? It was the moment when he realized that the hole the Sabres dug by tanking was so deep, that his job was no longer to climb out, it was to shore up the sides from collapsing. Yes indeedly. -snip- Why is this dreary season easier on the eyes for me? Because watching a hockey game isn't an instantaneous zip to the end and a peek at the score tally. There are 3 hours of ups and downs that string together and give the final result that we love so much that we talk about it on here all summer. Most of those highs and lows come at even strength, where the fluidity of our play has (up til Jack's injury) gotten better and better as the season has gone on. I think Phil finally has them learning to play structured team hockey, and I think part of the reason it took so long is because of those video clips above. He complained earlier this year that he didn't realize how far they had to come, that they had to literally go back to basics like "how to catch a pass of the boards" and how to pass to a moving target 5 feet away, and so on. Things that should have been coached into the group of players that largely stayed the same throughout the previous 162 games. Things that I and many others complained about the lack practicing or incorporating into the dreaded "systemmmmm" (I know y'all missed that word) for months on end last year. I think most of the time my opinions are crap but this is one I stand firmly next to. -snip- I really think that our woes this year compared to last are because of goaltending and the power play. We're going to lose about 17 goals for from last year power playing, which, for a team that's lost the league-most one goal games, probably accounts for at least 8 wins on its own. We have gone from .921 to .905 in save percentage despite allowing fewer shots in general (remember, 28th in the league -> 13th in the league) and from high-danger areas. We're pacing to allow 2066 shots on goal. With last year's save percentage this would have allowed 163 goals. This year it's going to give us 196. These two aspects of our game have swung 58 goals in the wrong direction relative to last season. Our penalty kill will be about the same, give or take 5 goals, when this year is done. So if you just give us last season's non-ES elements, instead of looking to be -73, our goal differential would be -15. This is twice as good as last season, and this is why we "sorta look better" as I've often seen remarked in GDTs, despite our record being so poor. It makes sense. It only took us 51 games to outshoot the other team more than we did in 82 last year. The Blues and Bruins recently commented on our improved structure being tougher to play against when paired with effort. The challenge for Phil is now a.) getting guys healthy and b.) keeping this effort up in a group of players now known for often abandoning it, and the challenge for Jason is now filling in the grand canyon gaps in our roster, which, as Swamp just stated, is a much taller task than any Sabres fan or worker ever wanted to believe it is (###### the tank). There have been promising signs but we done goofed and are going to continue to pay for a long time. Outstanding. I love it when Flagg writes a treatise that says my eye test is right. Am I crazy or did you just concede that Lehner stinks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Define stinks. Robin Lehner is an unlikable mediocre NHL starter who probably would need to be replaced on a contender and gets blamed too much for the Sabres shittiness. Chad Johnson stinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Define stinks. Robin Lehner is an unlikable mediocre NHL starter who probably would need to be replaced on a contender and gets blamed too much for the Sabres shittiness. Chad Johnson stinks. Not quite the unequivocal concession I was hoping for. If he doesn't win a starting job somewhere next year, I'll be back for an I-told-you-so. (Although I'll admit there's a good chance he is starting somewhere and performs better than he has this year.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 In theory: Bylsma’s ceiling may have been ~90 points. A better, more modern system would have no such ceiling. That’s the theory anyway. Apparently the "better, more modern system" has a much lower floor as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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