BREAKING: WAWROW: BOTTERILL SLAMMED A DOOR

[That Aud Smell]

There's something to this, though.

 

The idea that Bylsma's vision/system had a high(er) floor and low ceiling of wins, success.

 

The idea that Housley's vision/system has a low(er) floor and higher ceiling of wins, success.

 

Now, mind you: I'm not sure whether Housley is capable of delivering on anything. But that was the idea, I think.

It's not unlike a Bills fan saying they want to move on from 8 or 9 win teams and Tyrod Taylor, and see the team take a shot at becoming a team capable of hanging 11 or 12 wins. There are more risks associated with the latter path -- but more upside as well.

Apparently the "better, more modern system" has a much lower floor as well.  

 

Um, yeah.

 

That's often always how risk works.

[PASabreFan]

Talking out my ass as usual here, but hasn't just about every other team in the league (and in major NA team sports) done exactly that at least ONCE in the last seven years? Get good, that is. What's the problem here? What's wrong with Dad?

You have no evidence to back this up!

You have no evidence to back this up!

FU.

 

 

Best season by franchise, last six seasons

 

Cup: 3 teams

 

LA (2)

 

Chicago (2)

 

Pittsburgh (2)

 

 

Cup runnerup: 6

 

Nashville

 

San Jose

 

Tampa Bay

 

NYR

 

Boston

 

NJ

 

 

Conference runnerup: 5

 

Montreal

 

Ottawa

 

Phoenix

 

Anaheim

 

St. Louis

 

 

Winner of one round: 8

 

Washington

 

Philly

 

Detroit

 

Minnesota

 

Calgary

 

Islanders

 

Dallas

 

Edmonton

 

 

Playoff berth: 6

 

Florida

 

Vancouver

 

Toronto

 

Columbus

 

Colorado

 

Winnipeg

 

---

 

Buffalo: 89 point regular season

 

Carolina: 87 point regular season

[PASabreFan]

P.S. Carolina is one point out of the playoffs this season.

[woods-racer]

Let’s just see what happens at trade deadline and going forward into next season

There have been enough comments about the toxic nature of this teams dressing room that both new coach and General Manager inherited, its not just idle gossip .

Lets hope the GM will do his job and just maybe the Coach will have opportunity to work with more than a dysfunctional mess .

 

There is talk of this around the league?

 

You've been hearing this from some creditable sources? I'm asking this because I don't feel talking hockey heads around Toronto are creditable.

[dudacek]

There is talk of this around the league?

 .

Well he does read this board pretty regularly.

[Rasmus_]

I haven't watched any games since Jack got hurt, but overall, after the initial sting of realizing how depleted the lineup is, I've definitely enjoyed watching them more this year. And it's not because of the tank or because I'm a loser who likes losing, the losing part sucks. But the levels of frustration that came with watching this all game:

 

 

Left me in a state of rage that you all probably remember, and they were enough to fire a coach after just two seasons of a five year mega deal, the second biggest contract ever given to a coach, with complete understanding by all Sabres fans that don't get approximated to 3 by engineers. 

 

Why is this dreary season easier on the eyes for me? Because watching a hockey game isn't an instantaneous zip to the end and a peek at the score tally. There are 3 hours of ups and downs that string together and give the final result that we love so much that we talk about it on here all summer. Most of those highs and lows come at even strength, where the fluidity of our play has (up til Jack's injury) gotten better and better as the season has gone on. I think Phil finally has them learning to play structured team hockey, and I think part of the reason it took so long is because of those video clips above. He complained earlier this year that he didn't realize how far they had to come, that they had to literally go back to basics like "how to catch a pass of the boards" and how to pass to a moving target 5 feet away, and so on. Things that should have been coached into the group of players that largely stayed the same throughout the previous 162 games. Things that I and many others complained about the lack practicing or incorporating into the dreaded "systemmmmm" (I know y'all missed that word) for months on end last year. I think most of the time my opinions are crap but this is one I stand firmly next to. 

 

And I think the standings misery we see correlates to different things than our 5v5 play, which Phil has improved structurally. The 5v5 goal scoring is slightly down overall, but I attribute that to lack of depth, and here's why:

 

Our stars are having better 5v5 seasons than ever before.

 

Evidence: ROR is pacing for 38 even strength points this year, had 29 last year. If possession metrics are your thing, even though his dzone start rate and quality of competition are higher and roughly the same as last year, his possession stats are the best they've been as a Sabre.

 

Jack had 38 ES points in 53 games after 33 in 61 the year before. He also was nearly a positive possession player, sitting well above his previous high in these metrics.

 

Kyle is pacing for 28 even though he's clearly a step slower than last year when he had 22, after being in ICU for a while. 

 

Sam is doing worse, because he regressed for half of a season independent of anyone else's influence. I will neither extrapolate his season total or his last 8 weeks, but he'll probably end up about the same production at even strength, with much better possession numbers, downright good ones actually. The team has the puck and shoots the puck more when he's on the ice than the other team does, and my eye test of Samson over the last 8 weeks agrees with this. This didn't happen with any Sabre forward during the last two seasons that wasn't a ridiculously sheltered Moulson, or Carrier. 

 

Kane is Kane. He plays the same no matter the system, and is in line for a roughly 3 point increase at even strength on last year, a year in which he was top 5 in ES goals for most of the season. And he's gone. These are our "scorers" and they've all been better outside of Sam being in a rut centering Seth Griffith and Pouliot for 20 games. Since coming out of that rut, Sam is a better ES player than he's ever been.

 

So with this uniform increase in production from all of our key guys at the most critical state of a hockey game, why has the scoring dipped? The answer is simply depth. I often snarked that Bylsma hockey is why Gionta practically kept pace with freaking Eichel in scoring at even strength during their time here together, but Gionta was still a legitimately good even strength 3rd line player while he was here. For large swaths of 15-16, Foligno-Larsson-Gionta took tough minutes and scored as much as either of ROR or Jack's line did. in 2015-16, we received 192 points from guys not listed above. Last year was 162. This year we're pacing for 130 points from players that aren't those guys. Our depth is producing at 68% of what it was when we last felt like this team was going in the right direction, and that was still a mediocre number even THEN. 68% of mediocrity. We have Rodrigues and Wilson in our top six at the same time and Nolan playing 10 minutes a night, with Larsson incapable of basic muscle skills in his left arm because he destroyed his wrist and elbow last year. This is where our even strength scoring went. And even with this, our ES play is still better than it has been. Even in the defensive zone, where our shot suppression has risen from 28th in the NHL last year to 13th this year. Phil actually does teach his guys things, at least. I don't mean to whitewash everything he has done, there are several major problems I have had with him since his hiring, but ES play is not one of them. It's just so nice seeing them attempt to use 5 guys and to set things back up when they break down: 

 

 

I don't have big long clips like last year, I just don't have the time. That last project took me 50 hours. But I grabbed the above clip because I thought it was emblematic of this season. It was something we saw nothing of previously, an honest emphasis on keeping the puck the way good teams to, with a mistake by Pominville in the form of a bad pass, but always several options available and trying their best to keep the puck. Less of what Phil called "cheating" and what I call "hitting the opposing blue line to tip in the stretch pass", and more support. This type of hockey, when perfected and supplemented with talent, is what allows teams like Chicago and LA to win cups while taking literally 60% of all shot attempts that happen in their games. This isn't even a fancy stat. If you have the puck more and shoot it more over 82 games you will simply win more. We were never going to win by averaging 20 failed stretch passes per game and riding the 5th best power play in the last two decades. Because when that power play had us climb to within 4 points of a playoff position in mid February, and then faltered slightly, at the most critical time of the year, we finished the last 30% of the season pacing for WORSE than we're going to finish THIS year. Get gud at ES because they don't call penalties in the playoffs. 

 

I really think that our woes this year compared to last are because of goaltending and the power play. We're going to lose about 17 goals for from last year power playing, which, for a team that's lost the league-most one goal games, probably accounts for at least 8 wins on its own. We have gone from .921 to .905 in save percentage despite allowing fewer shots in general (remember, 28th in the league -> 13th in the league) and from high-danger areas. We're pacing to allow 2066 shots on goal. With last year's save percentage this would have allowed 163 goals. This year it's going to give us 196. These two aspects of our game have swung 58 goals in the wrong direction relative to last season. Our penalty kill will be about the same, give or take 5 goals, when this year is done. 

 

So if you just give us last season's non-ES elements, instead of looking to be -73, our goal differential would be -15. This is twice as good as last season, and this is why we "sorta look better" as I've often seen remarked in GDTs, despite our record being so poor. It makes sense. It only took us 51 games to outshoot the other team more than we did in 82 last year. The Blues and Bruins recently commented on our improved structure being tougher to play against when paired with effort. The challenge for Phil is now a.) getting guys healthy and b.) keeping this effort up in a group of players now known for often abandoning it, and the challenge for Jason is now filling in the grand canyon gaps in our roster, which, as Swamp just stated, is a much taller task than any Sabres fan or worker ever wanted to believe it is (###### the tank). 

 

There have been promising signs but we done goofed and are going to continue to pay for a long time.

 

Randall, this is a piece that could be published.  It was amazing.  Spot on and precise!   Thank you.

[SwampD]

I haven't watched any games since Jack got hurt, but overall, after the initial sting of realizing how depleted the lineup is, I've definitely enjoyed watching them more this year. And it's not because of the tank or because I'm a loser who likes losing, the losing part sucks. But the levels of frustration that came with watching this all game:

<snip>

 

 

Left me in a state of rage that you all probably remember, and they were enough to fire a coach after just two seasons of a five year mega deal, the second biggest contract ever given to a coach, with complete understanding by all Sabres fans that don't get approximated to 3 by engineers.

 

Why is this dreary season easier on the eyes for me? Because watching a hockey game isn't an instantaneous zip to the end and a peek at the score tally. There are 3 hours of ups and downs that string together and give the final result that we love so much that we talk about it on here all summer. Most of those highs and lows come at even strength, where the fluidity of our play has (up til Jack's injury) gotten better and better as the season has gone on. I think Phil finally has them learning to play structured team hockey, and I think part of the reason it took so long is because of those video clips above. He complained earlier this year that he didn't realize how far they had to come, that they had to literally go back to basics like "how to catch a pass of the boards" and how to pass to a moving target 5 feet away, and so on. Things that should have been coached into the group of players that largely stayed the same throughout the previous 162 games. Things that I and many others complained about the lack practicing or incorporating into the dreaded "systemmmmm" (I know y'all missed that word) for months on end last year. I think most of the time my opinions are crap but this is one I stand firmly next to.

 

And I think the standings misery we see correlates to different things than our 5v5 play, which Phil has improved structurally. The 5v5 goal scoring is slightly down overall, but I attribute that to lack of depth, and here's why:

 

Our stars are having better 5v5 seasons than ever before.

 

Evidence: ROR is pacing for 38 even strength points this year, had 29 last year. If possession metrics are your thing, even though his dzone start rate and quality of competition are higher and roughly the same as last year, his possession stats are the best they've been as a Sabre.

 

Jack had 38 ES points in 53 games after 33 in 61 the year before. He also was nearly a positive possession player, sitting well above his previous high in these metrics.

 

Kyle is pacing for 28 even though he's clearly a step slower than last year when he had 22, after being in ICU for a while.

 

Sam is doing worse, because he regressed for half of a season independent of anyone else's influence. I will neither extrapolate his season total or his last 8 weeks, but he'll probably end up about the same production at even strength, with much better possession numbers, downright good ones actually. The team has the puck and shoots the puck more when he's on the ice than the other team does, and my eye test of Samson over the last 8 weeks agrees with this. This didn't happen with any Sabre forward during the last two seasons that wasn't a ridiculously sheltered Moulson, or Carrier.

 

Kane is Kane. He plays the same no matter the system, and is in line for a roughly 3 point increase at even strength on last year, a year in which he was top 5 in ES goals for most of the season. And he's gone. These are our "scorers" and they've all been better outside of Sam being in a rut centering Seth Griffith and Pouliot for 20 games. Since coming out of that rut, Sam is a better ES player than he's ever been.

 

So with this uniform increase in production from all of our key guys at the most critical state of a hockey game, why has the scoring dipped? The answer is simply depth. I often snarked that Bylsma hockey is why Gionta practically kept pace with freaking Eichel in scoring at even strength during their time here together, but Gionta was still a legitimately good even strength 3rd line player while he was here. For large swaths of 15-16, Foligno-Larsson-Gionta took tough minutes and scored as much as either of ROR or Jack's line did. in 2015-16, we received 192 points from guys not listed above. Last year was 162. This year we're pacing for 130 points from players that aren't those guys. Our depth is producing at 68% of what it was when we last felt like this team was going in the right direction, and that was still a mediocre number even THEN. 68% of mediocrity. We have Rodrigues and Wilson in our top six at the same time and Nolan playing 10 minutes a night, with Larsson incapable of basic muscle skills in his left arm because he destroyed his wrist and elbow last year. This is where our even strength scoring went. And even with this, our ES play is still better than it has been. Even in the defensive zone, where our shot suppression has risen from 28th in the NHL last year to 13th this year. Phil actually does teach his guys things, at least. I don't mean to whitewash everything he has done, there are several major problems I have had with him since his hiring, but ES play is not one of them. It's just so nice seeing them attempt to use 5 guys and to set things back up when they break down:

 

<snip>

 

I don't have big long clips like last year, I just don't have the time. That last project took me 50 hours. But I grabbed the above clip because I thought it was emblematic of this season. It was something we saw nothing of previously, an honest emphasis on keeping the puck the way good teams to, with a mistake by Pominville in the form of a bad pass, but always several options available and trying their best to keep the puck. Less of what Phil called "cheating" and what I call "hitting the opposing blue line to tip in the stretch pass", and more support. This type of hockey, when perfected and supplemented with talent, is what allows teams like Chicago and LA to win cups while taking literally 60% of all shot attempts that happen in their games. This isn't even a fancy stat. If you have the puck more and shoot it more over 82 games you will simply win more. We were never going to win by averaging 20 failed stretch passes per game and riding the 5th best power play in the last two decades. Because when that power play had us climb to within 4 points of a playoff position in mid February, and then faltered slightly, at the most critical time of the year, we finished the last 30% of the season pacing for WORSE than we're going to finish THIS year. Get gud at ES because they don't call penalties in the playoffs.

 

I really think that our woes this year compared to last are because of goaltending and the power play. We're going to lose about 17 goals for from last year power playing, which, for a team that's lost the league-most one goal games, probably accounts for at least 8 wins on its own. We have gone from .921 to .905 in save percentage despite allowing fewer shots in general (remember, 28th in the league -> 13th in the league) and from high-danger areas. We're pacing to allow 2066 shots on goal. With last year's save percentage this would have allowed 163 goals. This year it's going to give us 196. These two aspects of our game have swung 58 goals in the wrong direction relative to last season. Our penalty kill will be about the same, give or take 5 goals, when this year is done.

 

So if you just give us last season's non-ES elements, instead of looking to be -73, our goal differential would be -15. This is twice as good as last season, and this is why we "sorta look better" as I've often seen remarked in GDTs, despite our record being so poor. It makes sense. It only took us 51 games to outshoot the other team more than we did in 82 last year. The Blues and Bruins recently commented on our improved structure being tougher to play against when paired with effort. The challenge for Phil is now a.) getting guys healthy and b.) keeping this effort up in a group of players now known for often abandoning it, and the challenge for Jason is now filling in the grand canyon gaps in our roster, which, as Swamp just stated, is a much taller task than any Sabres fan or worker ever wanted to believe it is (###### the tank).

 

There have been promising signs but we done goofed and are going to continue to pay for a long time.

When you need to use this many words to convince me we're better,... I know we're not.

 

 

Jk. Good post.

[Randall Flagg]

When you need to use this many words to convince me we're better,... I know we're not.

 

 

Jk. Good post.

:lol: 

 

I don't think we're "Better" overall as a hockey team because the stuff like power plays and goaltending and PK obviously is a part of who you are as a team, and we aren't GOOD yet 5v5, just better than we have been (and it is just as reasonable to blame the tank for that as any previous coaching regime). Obviously there's going to be a 15 point gap between this season and last and that's not nothing. I just have a little hope in that we may have started to right some fundamental things that will make us a more sound hockey team in the future. 

 

It's really hard to get excited about next year at this point though which sucks. We'd have to have an AMAZING offseason to compete for a playoff spot next year IMO. As in, adding 2 top 6 guys, 4 new better bottom 6 guys, a top 4 D and 2-3 guys that should be playing third pair over McCabe/Beaulieu/whatever. 

 

I'd love to go after Pateryn and 2-3 other D like him.

[R_Dudley]

I haven't watched any games since Jack got hurt, but overall, after the initial sting of realizing how depleted the lineup is, I've definitely enjoyed watching them more this year. And it's not because of the tank or because I'm a loser who likes losing, the losing part sucks. But the levels of frustration that came with watching this all game:

 

 

Left me in a state of rage that you all probably remember, and they were enough to fire a coach after just two seasons of a five year mega deal, the second biggest contract ever given to a coach, with complete understanding by all Sabres fans that don't get approximated to 3 by engineers. 

 

Why is this dreary season easier on the eyes for me? Because watching a hockey game isn't an instantaneous zip to the end and a peek at the score tally. There are 3 hours of ups and downs that string together and give the final result that we love so much that we talk about it on here all summer. Most of those highs and lows come at even strength, where the fluidity of our play has (up til Jack's injury) gotten better and better as the season has gone on. I think Phil finally has them learning to play structured team hockey, and I think part of the reason it took so long is because of those video clips above. He complained earlier this year that he didn't realize how far they had to come, that they had to literally go back to basics like "how to catch a pass of the boards" and how to pass to a moving target 5 feet away, and so on. Things that should have been coached into the group of players that largely stayed the same throughout the previous 162 games. Things that I and many others complained about the lack practicing or incorporating into the dreaded "systemmmmm" (I know y'all missed that word) for months on end last year. I think most of the time my opinions are crap but this is one I stand firmly next to. 

 

And I think the standings misery we see correlates to different things than our 5v5 play, which Phil has improved structurally. The 5v5 goal scoring is slightly down overall, but I attribute that to lack of depth, and here's why:

 

Our stars are having better 5v5 seasons than ever before.

 

Evidence: ROR is pacing for 38 even strength points this year, had 29 last year. If possession metrics are your thing, even though his dzone start rate and quality of competition are higher and roughly the same as last year, his possession stats are the best they've been as a Sabre.

 

Jack had 38 ES points in 53 games after 33 in 61 the year before. He also was nearly a positive possession player, sitting well above his previous high in these metrics.

 

Kyle is pacing for 28 even though he's clearly a step slower than last year when he had 22, after being in ICU for a while. 

 

Sam is doing worse, because he regressed for half of a season independent of anyone else's influence. I will neither extrapolate his season total or his last 8 weeks, but he'll probably end up about the same production at even strength, with much better possession numbers, downright good ones actually. The team has the puck and shoots the puck more when he's on the ice than the other team does, and my eye test of Samson over the last 8 weeks agrees with this. This didn't happen with any Sabre forward during the last two seasons that wasn't a ridiculously sheltered Moulson, or Carrier. 

 

Kane is Kane. He plays the same no matter the system, and is in line for a roughly 3 point increase at even strength on last year, a year in which he was top 5 in ES goals for most of the season. And he's gone. These are our "scorers" and they've all been better outside of Sam being in a rut centering Seth Griffith and Pouliot for 20 games. Since coming out of that rut, Sam is a better ES player than he's ever been.

 

So with this uniform increase in production from all of our key guys at the most critical state of a hockey game, why has the scoring dipped? The answer is simply depth. I often snarked that Bylsma hockey is why Gionta practically kept pace with freaking Eichel in scoring at even strength during their time here together, but Gionta was still a legitimately good even strength 3rd line player while he was here. For large swaths of 15-16, Foligno-Larsson-Gionta took tough minutes and scored as much as either of ROR or Jack's line did. in 2015-16, we received 192 points from guys not listed above. Last year was 162. This year we're pacing for 130 points from players that aren't those guys. Our depth is producing at 68% of what it was when we last felt like this team was going in the right direction, and that was still a mediocre number even THEN. 68% of mediocrity. We have Rodrigues and Wilson in our top six at the same time and Nolan playing 10 minutes a night, with Larsson incapable of basic muscle skills in his left arm because he destroyed his wrist and elbow last year. This is where our even strength scoring went. And even with this, our ES play is still better than it has been. Even in the defensive zone, where our shot suppression has risen from 28th in the NHL last year to 13th this year. Phil actually does teach his guys things, at least. I don't mean to whitewash everything he has done, there are several major problems I have had with him since his hiring, but ES play is not one of them. It's just so nice seeing them attempt to use 5 guys and to set things back up when they break down: 

 

 

I don't have big long clips like last year, I just don't have the time. That last project took me 50 hours. But I grabbed the above clip because I thought it was emblematic of this season. It was something we saw nothing of previously, an honest emphasis on keeping the puck the way good teams to, with a mistake by Pominville in the form of a bad pass, but always several options available and trying their best to keep the puck. Less of what Phil called "cheating" and what I call "hitting the opposing blue line to tip in the stretch pass", and more support. This type of hockey, when perfected and supplemented with talent, is what allows teams like Chicago and LA to win cups while taking literally 60% of all shot attempts that happen in their games. This isn't even a fancy stat. If you have the puck more and shoot it more over 82 games you will simply win more. We were never going to win by averaging 20 failed stretch passes per game and riding the 5th best power play in the last two decades. Because when that power play had us climb to within 4 points of a playoff position in mid February, and then faltered slightly, at the most critical time of the year, we finished the last 30% of the season pacing for WORSE than we're going to finish THIS year. Get gud at ES because they don't call penalties in the playoffs. 

I really think that our woes this year compared to last are because of goaltending and the power play. We're going to lose about 17 goals for from last year power playing, which, for a team that's lost the league-most one goal games, probably accounts for at least 8 wins on its own. We have gone from .921 to .905 in save percentage despite allowing fewer shots in general (remember, 28th in the league -> 13th in the league) and from high-danger areas. We're pacing to allow 2066 shots on goal. With last year's save percentage this would have allowed 163 goals. This year it's going to give us 196. These two aspects of our game have swung 58 goals in the wrong direction relative to last season. Our penalty kill will be about the same, give or take 5 goals, when this year is done. 

So if you just give us last season's non-ES elements, instead of looking to be -73, our goal differential would be -15. This is twice as good as last season, and this is why we "sorta look better" as I've often seen remarked in GDTs, despite our record being so poor. It makes sense. It only took us 51 games to outshoot the other team more than we did in 82 last year. The Blues and Bruins recently commented on our improved structure being tougher to play against when paired with effort. The challenge for Phil is now a.) getting guys healthy and b.) keeping this effort up in a group of players now known for often abandoning it, and the challenge for Jason is now filling in the grand canyon gaps in our roster, which, as Swamp just stated, is a much taller task than any Sabres fan or worker ever wanted to believe it is (###### the tank). 

There have been promising signs but we done goofed and are going to continue to pay for a long time.

This is why I come to this board.

Great analysis and presented well.

Thanks for the work and keeping the faith.

[dudacek]

I look at it as needing a good middle pairing defenceman and four middle-six forwards to be in the playoff hunt.

 

It seems a lot more doable when you look at it that way, especially when you consider we have the Kane trade (return and cap space) a likely top-five pick and Casey Mittelstadt to work with.

 

We have four top six forwards, plenty of fourth liners and Bogo McCabe Antipin Nelson Beaulieu to fill out the bottom three on D.

 

It’s the middle of the roster that’s most lacking.

[nfreeman]

And goaltending!!

[Randall Flagg]

How would we feel about a Grubauer-Ullmark pairing next year?

[darksabre]

How would we feel about a Grubauer-Ullmark pairing next year?

I would be fine with that.

[Cityo'Rasmii]

How would we feel about a Grubauer-Ullmark pairing next year?

I'm in

[dudacek]

I'm in

Hell, yeah.

Grubauer wouldn’t come cheap.

[Thorny]

How would we feel about a Grubauer-Ullmark pairing next year?

I’d feel good.

[TrueBlueGED]

How would we feel about a Grubauer-Ullmark pairing next year?

Sign me up.