Randall Flagg Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 (edited) Here is Lehner in back to back situations for the Sabres. 16-17 Team wins 4-1 versus Dallas, Lehner makes 31 saves on 32 shots, .969 save percentage. the next day team loses to Toronto, Lehner gives up 3 goals on 16 shots in 29 minutes, for a .813 save percentage before getting yanked halfway through the second. Team wins 3-1 at Toronto, Lehner makes 43 saves on 44 shots, .977 save percentage. the next day team loses to Vancouver at home, Lehner doesn't get pulled but he allows 4 goals on 31 shots for a .871 save percentage. That was the game he got clipped by Burrows I think and Falk body slammed him. Then Lehner spazzed on the team in the post-game. Happy times. Apparently we hadn't learned our lesson, because one week after the Lehner meltdown, we did it again: Team wins 3-2 versus St. Louis, Lehner makes 37 saves on 39 shots for a .949 save percentage. We were talking playoffs. the next day the team loses to Chicago, Lehner allowing 5 goals on 37 shots, .865 save percentage. Then Buffalo beats Detroit, Lehner makes 34 saves on 35 shots for a .971 save percentage. the following day he's actually not bad, but he allows 3 goals on 34 shots for a .912 save percentage in a loss. That was the game we had a 3-0 lead on Pittsburgh and lost. Finally, we started Lehner versus the Islanders in a game we lost. He allowed 4 goals on 26 shots for a .846 save percentage. Yikes.The next day we started him against the Leafs and he let in the squeaker and 3 goals total on 5 shots in 5 minutes, .400 save percentage, and was yanked before the clock said 14 minutes left in the first period. At this point posters in the GDT were calling this before it even happened because we had caught onto Lehner's handling of this situation.15-16 We did not start Lehner in any back-to-backs in 2015-16 between the injury and Chad having a good year that year. The conclusion: Starting Lehner in a back-to-back has literally never worked out for us even one time. We've lost every game, he's never allowed less than 3 goals in the follow up, and his save percentage drops from a .949 in the first night to a .853 the second night. I know coaches think they can read their goalies and know what they're doing. I know the temptation is there after a shutout. But if you make the decision to go to your backup consistently, you will win more games in the end than if you pick and choose because you think you're an enlightened goalie-whisperer. Especially if your goalie is Lehner, whose save percentage drops literally 5 times as much as the average NHL goalie's does in the same situation. Edited October 25, 2017 by Randall Flagg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustache of God Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 (edited) Here is Lehner in back to back situations for the Sabres. 16-17 Team wins 4-1 versus Dallas, Lehner makes 31 saves on 32 shots, .969 save percentage. the next day team loses to Toronto, Lehner gives up 3 goals on 16 shots in 29 minutes, for a .813 save percentage before getting yanked halfway through the second. Team wins 3-1 at Toronto, Lehner makes 43 saves on 44 shots, .977 save percentage. the next day team loses to Vancouver at home, Lehner doesn't get pulled but he allows 4 goals on 31 shots for a .871 save percentage. That was the game he got clipped by Burrows I think and Falk body slammed him. Then Lehner spazzed on the team in the post-game. Happy times. Apparently we hadn't learned our lesson, because one week after the Lehner meltdown, we did it again: Team wins 3-2 versus St. Louis, Lehner makes 37 saves on 39 shots for a .949 save percentage. We were talking playoffs. the next day the team loses to Chicago, Lehner allowing 5 goals on 37 shots, .865 save percentage. Then Buffalo beats Detroit, Lehner makes 34 saves on 35 shots for a .971 save percentage. the following day he's actually not bad, but he allows 3 goals on 34 shots for a .912 save percentage in a loss. That was the game we had a 3-0 lead on Pittsburgh and lost. Finally, we started Lehner versus the Islanders in a game we lost. He allowed 4 goals on 26 shots for a .846 save percentage. Yikes. The next day we started him against the Leafs and he let in the squeaker and 3 goals total on 5 shots in 5 minutes, .400 save percentage, and was yanked before the clock said 14 minutes left in the first period. At this point posters in the GDT were calling this before it even happened because we had caught onto Lehner's handling of this situation. 15-16 We did not start Lehner in any back-to-backs in 2015-16 between the injury and Chad having a good year that year. The conclusion: Starting Lehner in a back-to-back has literally never worked out for us even one time. We've lost every game, he's never allowed less than 3 goals in the follow up, and his save percentage drops from a .949 in the first night to a .853 the second night. I know coaches think they can read their goalies and know what they're doing. I know the temptation is there after a shutout. But if you make the decision to go to your backup consistently, you will win more games in the end than if you pick and choose because you think you're an enlightened goalie-whisperer. Especially if your goalie is Lehner, whose save percentage drops literally 5 times as much as the average NHL goalie's does in the same situation. So you're saying he's due for a win? :flirt: Edited October 25, 2017 by mustacheofgod Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Here is Lehner in back to back situations for the Sabres. 16-17 Team wins 4-1 versus Dallas, Lehner makes 31 saves on 32 shots, .969 save percentage. the next day team loses to Toronto, Lehner gives up 3 goals on 16 shots in 29 minutes, for a .813 save percentage before getting yanked halfway through the second. Team wins 3-1 at Toronto, Lehner makes 43 saves on 44 shots, .977 save percentage. the next day team loses to Vancouver at home, Lehner doesn't get pulled but he allows 4 goals on 31 shots for a .871 save percentage. That was the game he got clipped by Burrows I think and Falk body slammed him. Then Lehner spazzed on the team in the post-game. Happy times. Apparently we hadn't learned our lesson, because one week after the Lehner meltdown, we did it again: Team wins 3-2 versus St. Louis, Lehner makes 37 saves on 39 shots for a .949 save percentage. We were talking playoffs. the next day the team loses to Chicago, Lehner allowing 5 goals on 37 shots, .865 save percentage. Then Buffalo beats Detroit, Lehner makes 34 saves on 35 shots for a .971 save percentage. the following day he's actually not bad, but he allows 3 goals on 34 shots for a .912 save percentage in a loss. That was the game we had a 3-0 lead on Pittsburgh and lost. Finally, we started Lehner versus the Islanders in a game we lost. He allowed 4 goals on 26 shots for a .846 save percentage. Yikes. The next day we started him against the Leafs and he let in the squeaker and 3 goals total on 5 shots in 5 minutes, .400 save percentage, and was yanked before the clock said 14 minutes left in the first period. At this point posters in the GDT were calling this before it even happened because we had caught onto Lehner's handling of this situation. 15-16 We did not start Lehner in any back-to-backs in 2015-16 between the injury and Chad having a good year that year. The conclusion: Starting Lehner in a back-to-back has literally never worked out for us even one time. We've lost every game, he's never allowed less than 3 goals in the follow up, and his save percentage drops from a .949 in the first night to a .853 the second night. I know coaches think they can read their goalies and know what they're doing. I know the temptation is there after a shutout. But if you make the decision to go to your backup consistently, you will win more games in the end than if you pick and choose because you think you're an enlightened goalie-whisperer. Especially if your goalie is Lehner, whose save percentage drops literally 5 times as much as the average NHL goalie's does in the same situation. You know, it is stuff like this that makes me wonder if the fanbase is sometimes just smarter than the new management team. I hope Housley reads the forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I wanted to get more numbers and go into his Ottawa days but my lunch break is ovah. Maybe later tonight because I can sleep in tomorrow!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyldnwoody44 Posted October 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Strong work!!!! I love this place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I'm curious to know what the SV% comparison for goalies who play back-to-back games after posting a shutout in game 1. I think there's something to be said for confidence levels and being in "the zone". I wouldn't even know where to begin to find a stat like that. Interesting theory. I too would like to know those #s. Here is Lehner in back to back situations for the Sabres.-snip- Now that is some PhD level work right there. Gracias. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Well maybe we should start chad then , but I'm still inclined to go with Lehner :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 (edited) I'm curious to know what the SV% comparison for goalies who play back-to-back games after posting a shutout in game 1. I think there's something to be said for confidence levels and being in "the zone". I wouldn't even know where to begin to find a stat like that. I could try and go through the game logs of 30 goalies to look for shutouts. It would take some time. I'll give it a whirl if I find the time, because I enjoy doing that - with Hockey Reference still up, it's not a lot of clicks. And obviously that would only give me a season's worth of data and not many points. Through all this discussion...I may have missed it, but do we know if Lehner is starting tonight? Edited October 25, 2017 by Randall Flagg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Evander Kane -- Jack Eichel -- Kyle Okposo Benoit Pouliot -- Ryan O'Reilly -- Jason Pominville Jordan Nolan - Sam Reinhart -- Justin Bailey Matt Moulson -- Johan Larsson -- Seth Griffith Marco Scandella -- Rasmus Ristolainen Jake McCabe -- Taylor Fedun Victor Antipin -- Matt Tennyson Chad Johnson Robin Lehner Seems to be Johnson if I have to believe nhl.com predicitions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I could try and go through the game logs of 30 goalies to look for shutouts. It would take some time. I'll give it a whirl if I find the time, because I enjoy doing that - with Hockey Reference still up, it's not a lot of clicks. And obviously that would only give me a season's worth of data and not many points. Through all this discussion...I may have missed it, but do we know if Lehner is starting tonight? Nothing confirmed anywhere that I can see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swedesessed Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I'm stoked to watch the game, but sad to say I am feeling a 4-1 loss brewin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 This is definitely a game where we have been conditioned to expect a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottysabres Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Alrighty ladies and gentlemen, I'm pumped about this team coming together. I have a GOOD feeling about tonight. I think ROR, Eichel, Reinhart and Bailey are going to have a great game, but I believe Antipin will be the star tonight. GO SABRES!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Alrighty ladies and gentlemen, I'm pumped about this team coming together. I have a GOOD feeling about tonight. I think ROR, Eichel, Reinhart and Bailey are going to have a great game, but I believe Antipin will be the star tonight. GO SABRES!!! Antipin's Debutante Ball! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottysabres Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Antipin's Debutante Ball! :D Haha :D I love this kids game. He's got hands, cycles good up high and I more than notices his quickness to jump to the slot last game. He had several times where he was open as he glided in to the slot where his team mates did not feed him for various reasons. And he wasn't caught on it because of the teams play. But I did notice it and I'm sure its going to pay off once the team does to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winston Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 “Home” game for me.. I’ll be there in my blue ROR jersey! My wife is going to rock a blue Myers :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Johnson in net Zemgus will play tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Good news on Zemgus. Play him with Jack! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Good news on Zemgus. Play him with Jack! :lol: You funny, Randy. That experiment has been tried & failed. :huh: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Johnson in net Zemgus will play tonight Trust the stats Phil, trust the stats! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 :lol: You funny, Randy. That experiment has been tried & failed. :huh: Roooooooooar I do wonder how long it will go on. If their scoring picks up again, there's no reason to expect Phil to change that combo..this season. And since I've fully embraced the side of switching them, and all of the hyperbole and biased conclusions that could possibly come with it, I don't know if I can handle that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I wonder who sits for Zemgus. It's gotta be Moulson or Griffith right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokey Jones Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 This will be a tough one and I wouldn't be too down on them if they lost as long as they gave a solid effort. Columbus can be a physical team and their PP shouldn't be as anemic as the Detroit one was. So don't take stupid penalties and try to beat them with speed. Also our PP has to be better to win this one. I think the usual unwritten rule is you play a shutout goalie in the next game if he wants to or is able to play. So I'd be surprised if Johnson started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I’m kinda surprised it’s Ocho. And I think it’s because JBott and Howie are well aware that Sparkles has stunk in the 2nd half of back to backs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millbank Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just maybe it’s time for Jack to have a special game . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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