GDT: Sabres @ Blue Jackets 10/25/17 8PM EST

[That Aud Smell]

Yes. It passed the eye test. If it's one game in a good season, you don't blink or remember it for more than 24 hours. The problem is that it's another loss in a very poor season so far. It will be looked at differently.

 

Very much agree.

 

I'll admit, I'm still working through this unpleasant feeling:

 

 

I'm not sure where I'll end up, or where the team will be, by mid-December.

[Doohickie]

The Sabres have played 11 games:

 

3:  soundly beaten by 3 or more goals.

2:  lost by 2 goals due to EN goal at the end

1:  lost by 1 goal in regulation

2:  lost in SO or OT

1:  won in OT

2:  won in regulation

 

So in 8 of 11 games, the Sabres were in the game until the last half minute of the game.

 

If the Sabres get a break or two in those middle 6 close losses, we're in a playoff position; we're only 2 points out.

 

We're not winning the close games, but by no means does this team suck.  It's just that it stings more when they lose because for the first time in a long time, these games could actually mean something again.

[Thorny]

^ It's admirable optimism, but it's tough to get behind that kind of reasoning, as the same logic can be applied to the wins. Maybe the one goal losses could be wins, but just as easily the wins could swing to losses. Think of the Boston comeback.

 

I think in this case, as in general, you are what your record says you are.

[Pokey Jones]

There were a lot of close losses last year too, but they were still losses. Same problem as always, they do not score/finish in too many games. Some decent play here and there, but not much rebound work, jamming it home or sustained pressure. The core players aside from Eichel just don't have it with the possible exception of ROR (still undecided on him). Kane on occasion, but mostly he just shoots from a distance. Guys like Bailey could develop it, but they need examples to learn from. 

[Randall Flagg]

Being close to "playoff position" doesn't mean much when every team around us has played 2-4 fewer games - 3-6-2, whenever teams catch up, can only be described as "close" because so few games have been played.

[Pokey Jones]

Interesting you pick Reinhart to single out, the player on the roster with a significant history of screening goalies and tipping pucks in front of the net. Much more so than any other player on this roster.

Missed this earlier. Reinhart does in fact go to all the right places, and will get a tip now and again but watch more closely at how little he actually does there and how easily he is moved out most of the time. If he wasn't he'd have a lot more goals no? 

[Doohickie]

Assume the teams with 2 fewer games get 3 points.... so we're 5 points out.  Big deal.  Play .500 hockey for a while, then push it up to .600 and .700 and get into the playoffs.

 

Some of the teams that are ahead of us are as good as they're going to be this season.  I think the Sabres will continue to improve.  Playoffs aren't really out of the question by any stretch of the imagination.

[Randall Flagg]

Assume the teams with 2 fewer games get 3 points.... so we're 5 points out.  Big deal.  Play .500 hockey for a while, then push it up to .600 and .700 and get into the playoffs.

 

Some of the teams that are ahead of us are as good as they're going to be this season.  I think the Sabres will continue to improve.  Playoffs aren't really out of the question by any stretch of the imagination.

It sounds nice now but that paces us for finishing 20 points out of a playoff spot haha. 

 

I know your second point addresses that, but it's likely all speculation and wishful thinking. We have no idea which teams will get better and which are playing their best hockey now.

[Wyldnwoody44]

What if buffalo is playing their best hockey right now...

 

If our D looks good, our Offense scores 1....if our Offense scores a few, our goalies turn into SpongeBob SquarePants. If it doesn't come together in the same game, we're going to be unhappy here in the ol SS

[MattPie]

Interesting you pick Reinhart to single out, the player on the roster with a significant history of screening goalies and tipping pucks in front of the net. Much more so than any other player on this roster.

 

The mind sees what it wants to see.

 

Assume the teams with 2 fewer games get 3 points.... so we're 5 points out.  Big deal.  Play .500 hockey for a while, then push it up to .600 and .700 and get into the playoffs.

 

Some of the teams that are ahead of us are as good as they're going to be this season.  I think the Sabres will continue to improve.  Playoffs aren't really out of the question by any stretch of the imagination.

 

The Sabres need to play ~.600 (points%) for the rest of the season to get to 94 points. That's a 99 point pace, 6 points out of every 5 games. Least year, a 99-point season is 6th place in the East. It's not hopeless, but if this goes on for too much longer it's going to be tough sledding. If they play .500 for the next 10, they'll need 1.25 points per game for the rest of the season, a 102-point pace, or 4-5th in the East last year. Unless the system really starts to click, I have a tough time seeing this team run at a 102-point pace for 5 months. And that's just to get to 94 points; 94 points missed last year, 8th was 95.

 

Math is an unforgiving mistress. I was always a believer that you could come back from early season woes (Lindy's teams conditioned me), but I'm mostly turned around on that now.

Edited October 27, 2017 by MattPie

[LGR4GM]

so we aren't making the playoffs is what u r saying

[MattPie]

so we aren't making the playoffs is what u r saying

 

I'm saying much will depend on the next 10 games. I'd put it as unlikely given what has happened so far, but there's still hope that the team will build up a head of steam as the players get more comfortable with the system and each other. If the next 10 are .500 or worse (currently, .364), I abandon (almost) all hope.

Edited October 27, 2017 by MattPie

[PASabreFan]

so we aren't making the playoffs is what u r saying

Unfortunately, we've had to have this discussion several times in recent years. It is hard to come back. It's not so much the number of points you're behind, but the number of teams you have to pass. It's way too early to say they're out of it, but it's tough to overcome the kind of start they've had. OTOH, they've crawled back into the conversation.

[Doohickie]

Assume the teams with 2 fewer games get 3 points.... so we're 5 points out.  Big deal.  Play .500 hockey for a while, then push it up to .600 and .700 and get into the playoffs.

 

Some of the teams that are ahead of us are as good as they're going to be this season.  I think the Sabres will continue to improve.  Playoffs aren't really out of the question by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Well the first part has come to pass.  We're even in games played with the Flyers, and only 5 points behind.  (Pay no attention to the fact that we're dead last in the conference.)  We all acknowledge that Housley is taking the team in a different direction with a lot of different people and that there's a learning curve.  It's still perfectly plausible that the Sabres will outperform several of the teams ahead of them from here on out.

 

If we were 5 points out with a month and a half to go, we'd still be considered in the playoff hunt.  We've got a LOT more of season than that left to go; there's plenty of time to make a run.  But they have to stop playing crap hockey and rack up a few Ws.