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2018 NHL draft


Crusader1969

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So mid march spreadsheet update.

 

Not much change at the top, but more uncertainty at the bottom. Universal support means appeared on all 15 ballots to date with a 1st rd grade

 

(1-7) Top prospects remain the same and separated from the rest of the field

Dahin, Svechnikov and Zadina

Boqvist and Tkachuk

Hughes and Wahlstrom 

 

(8-11) Personally I think both Boqvist and Hughes fall during the draft in favor of two guys from this next group.

Bouchard, Dobson, Smith and Farabee

 

(12-17) Last group with universal support and all these guys are basically interchangeable in order

Veleno, Lundstrom, Kupari, Kotkaniemi, Wildes and Hayton

 

(18-21) Group with near universal support (13 or more ballots)

Denisenko, McLoed, McIssac and Thomas

 

(22-26) Next group (10 or more ballots)

Merkley, Noel, Bokk, Olofsson, Groulx

 

(27-31) Group under 67% support (8-9 ballots)

Sandin, Miller, Woo, Samuelsson and Kaut

 

(32-36) Group w a 1/3 or greater support (5-7 ballots)

Addison, McBain, Krastov, Alexeyev and Tychonick

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Button - Oliver Wahlstrom may have the best release in the #NHLDraft. He's a sharpshooter. He gets off good, quality shots. He's got qualities to his game like Brock Boeser #SabresNHL_2017_2018_Buff_Sabres.png

 

 

I don't agree with Buttons rankings because he overvalues Canadian players IMPO. That said this is a really solid take on Wahlstrom. Let's compare Wahlstrom to Tkachuk...

 

Tkachuk was born on September 16 of 1999, one day short of being 2017 draft eligible. I feel comfortable then looking at what he did in the USHL and comparing to Wahlstrom's USHL season this year. Wahlstrom for the record was born on June 13 of 2000. Wahlstrom is almost exactly 9 months younger than Tkachuk which is why I am doing that comparison.

 

Tkachuk: 61games, 25g, 54pts - 0.410gpga, 0.475apga, 0.885ppga

Wahlstrom: 51gms, 39goals, 78pts - 0.765gpga, 0.765apga, 1.530ppga

 

Now I know someone will be like, LIGER! Tkachuk has a year of college under his belt! He is obviously better and this that and the other thing. You might be right. But when I see a player who is essentially 9 months younger than Tkachuk putting up better numbers than what Tkachuk did at the same age, I have to question how much Tkachuk's year of college matters. Tkachuk produced .211 goals per game and only .76 points per game his freshmen year. Mittelstadt who is a year older than Tkachuk and on a worse team, produced 0.324gpg and 0.882ppg as a freshman. It isn't as though Tkachuk's college production is bad, it just isn't where I thought it would be. That said if you look at Mittelstadt's USHL numbers he is also below Wahlstrom, the caveat being he split the year between the USHL and the High School league. So with Mittelstadt as a reference and looking at Tkachuk versus Wahlstrom, it just seems that Wahlstrom has the opportunity to be better than Tkachuk.

 

Outside the numbers I have watched tape on both. Highlight packages aren't the best but I got a good feel. Tkachuk he gets the puck low and makes good passes to teammates, he battles in front of the net. He is a big body. His skating has improved and I would say he is faster than Reinhart. On the down side I think his shot is mediocre and he isn't always quick. Wahlstrom is in the same realm of speed, I think his shot is much better as is his quickness. He isn't as physical as Tkachuk but he is as smart and can shield the puck. I think both possess a good 2-way game. Neither of them are Guhle fast but both are above Reinhart/ROR level. In the end I favor Wahlstrom because his production leads me to believe he can be a better pro than Tkachuk. Wahlstrom's finishing ability is more vital to Eichel than Tkachuk's physicality. At least that is how I see it. Either way I still have Wahlstrom ahead of Tkachuk.

 

Dhalin

 

Svechnikov

Zadina

 

Wahlstrom

Tkachuk

Boqvist

 

Bouchard

Hughes/Quinn

 

Edited by Skurk Liger
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Quoting Liger:

 

Dhalin

 

Svechnikov

Zadina

 

Wahlstrom

Tkachuk

Boqvist

 

Bouchard

Hughes/Quinn

 

 

 

Looked at Wahlstrom today. We almost have the same draft board, except I switch Bouchard with Zadina and put Boqvist in the 3rd round.

 

I have:

Dahlin

 

Bouchard

Svechnikov

Wahlstrom

 

 

 

Tkachuk

 

 

Hughes

Dobson

Zadina

Edited by utsvävande
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If I knew Nylander was going to be a success at the NHL level, I would think Tkachuk is exactly the type of player they need to create space for the skilled players.

 

Since Nylander is still very much a wild card, I can get on board with placing Wahlstrom ahead of Tkachuk.

 

How much longer to the lottery?

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If I knew Nylander was going to be a success at the NHL level, I would think Tkachuk is exactly the type of player they need to create space for the skilled players.

 

Since Nylander is still very much a wild card, I can get on board with placing Wahlstrom ahead of Tkachuk.

 

How much longer to the lottery?

If I have to draft someone else to make Nylander, I trade Nylander before the draft. I'm sick of drafting players who need some mythical other for them to be good. Nylander right now is at the top of my trade list. He's an offensive passenger and this team already has enough passengers to fill a plane.

 

Quoting Liger:

 

Dhalin

 

Svechnikov

Zadina

 

Wahlstrom

Tkachuk

Boqvist

 

Bouchard

Hughes/Quinn

 

 

Looked at Wahlstrom today. We almost have the same draft board, except I switch Bouchard with Zadina and put Boqvist in the 3rd round.

 

I have:

Dahlin

 

Bouchard

Svechnikov

Wahlstrom

 

 

 

Tkachuk

 

 

Hughes

Dobson

Zadina

I'm inching closer to putting wahlstrom over zadina but I'm not quite there. Wahlstrom plays a more complete game but zadina skates better.

 

Boqvist is a sliver away from being below Bouchard. Boqvist is a potential, Bouchard is a known quantity.

Edited by Skurk Liger
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Dahlin, Zadina, Dobson, Svechnikov, Bouchard, Wahlstrom, Boqvist, Tkachuk, Smith/Hughes.  I'm really low on Hughes.  I love the skating, but I really question the decision making/vision, work away from the puck, defensive game. He screams Derrick Pouliot to me, though that is really low bar.  He's a much more precision more svelte skater than Derrick.  I just see too much bust in it.  I would take Kale Makar over him.  Regardless of whom we take in the top ten, I still greedily want McIsaac in the worst way possible. 

Edited by TheCerebral1
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At this point, its likely that the Sabres end up in last and draft 4th. (50.65%)

 

Assume the draft goes as expected - Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina.

 

Who do you take at 4?  Im leaning Hughes at this time. PP Qb, Offensive Dman who may be the best skater in the draft. Still has much to work on in his own end but not many 18 year olds don't.

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If we are at 4, unless Jbot has his heart set on someone, I might trade down from 4 to 6 or 7. I like Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Dobson and Bouchard over Hughes and Boqvist.

Then you draft one of them at 4. You don't have to take Hughes or Boqvist. For example Boqvist right now is below Bouchard for me. While I acknowledge Boqvist potential, the Sabres have bet too much on potential and not enough on actual talent. 

 

Keep in mind hockey isn't football and there are very few trade up in the first round. 

Edited by Skurk Liger
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If we are at 4, unless Jbot has his heart set on someone, I might trade down from 4 to 6 or 7. I like Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Dobson and Bouchard over Hughes and Boqvist.

I'd rather try to trade up from 4 to 2 or 3 to get Svechnikov or Zadina than trade down. If we can't do that I'd prefer to stay at #4 and take whomever is highest on their board (probably Tkachuk).

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If we are at 4, unless Jbot has his heart set on someone, I might trade down from 4 to 6 or 7. I like Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Dobson and Bouchard over Hughes and Boqvist.

 

Why trade down?  I see that you would probably have the Sabres acquiring more picks, but it's better to take the best available player at 4.

 

Then you draft one of them at 4. You don't have to take Hughes or Boqvist. For example Boqvist right now is below Bouchard for me. While I acknowledge Boqvist potential, the Sabres have bet too much on potential and not enough on actual talent. 

 

Keep in mind hockey isn't football and there are very few trade up in the first round. 

 

It would be hard to go from 4 to 2, or even 3.

 

I'd rather try to trade up from 4 to 2 or 3 to get Svechnikov or Zadina than trade down. If we can't do that I'd prefer to stay at #4 and take whomever is highest on their board (probably Tkachuk).

 

ZADINA!!

 

Find a way JBOT!!

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If we are at 4, unless Jbot has his heart set on someone, I might trade down from 4 to 6 or 7. I like Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Dobson and Bouchard over Hughes and Boqvist.

 

 

i really really like Dobson but he doesn't skate like Hughes. Think Hughes skating is a dimension that the Sabres desperately lack at the moment.

 

That still leaves Jack without any wingers but that can be solved when Mittelstadt leaves Minnesota.

I should have added the Caveat, assume the pick isn't traded. 

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The Sabres need to build a pipeline. To me after the top 3, guys 4-9 are fungible, with guys 4-7 almost ranked the same. Since all 6 guys would be a great asset for the organization I don’t have preference. Since I don’t have a preference, I’d rather get more assets to help rebuild the pipeline. My spreadsheet says there are 33 guys with 1st rd grades. If I can get a pick of equal quality from 4-9 and pick up someone like Samuelsson, McBain, Miller, Sandin, Kaut and Tychonick, Noel or Bokk at the end of the first, I think the we’d be better off long-term.

 

That said, if Jbot really has a big separation from 4 to 5, then he should take the player he has at 4.

 

As I’ve said before, I tier the prospects.

Tier 1 - Dahlin

Tier 2- Zadina and Svechnikov

Tier 3 - Boqvist, Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Hughes

Tier 4 - Bouchard, Dobson

Tier 5- Smith, Farabee

After Farabee, the tiers are larger.

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Now I know someone will be like, LIGER! Tkachuk has a year of college under his belt! He is obviously better and this that and the other thing. You might be right. But when I see a player who is essentially 9 months younger than Tkachuk putting up better numbers than what Tkachuk did at the same age, I have to question how much Tkachuk's year of college matters. Tkachuk produced .211 goals per game and only .76 points per game his freshmen year. Mittelstadt who is a year older than Tkachuk and on a worse team, produced 0.324gpg and 0.882ppg as a freshman. It isn't as though Tkachuk's college production is bad, it just isn't where I thought it would be. That said if you look at Mittelstadt's USHL numbers he is also below Wahlstrom, the caveat being he split the year between the USHL and the High School league. So with Mittelstadt as a reference and looking at Tkachuk versus Wahlstrom, it just seems that Wahlstrom has the opportunity to be better than Tkachuk.

 

So where are you pulling this thought that Minnesota was a worse team?  BU was only in the tournament because they won their auto-bid.  Minnesota was ranked higher in everything that matters.  I realize it has very little to do with your point as a whole, but I had to throw it out there.  This is a time of the year where so many oddities are thrown out there about the college game.

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So where are you pulling this thought that Minnesota was a worse team?  BU was only in the tournament because they won their auto-bid.  Minnesota was ranked higher in everything that matters.  I realize it has very little to do with your point as a whole, but I had to throw it out there.  This is a time of the year where so many oddities are thrown out there about the college game.

 

Welcome home, my friend.

 

You have been offline for a while, so I feel the need to update you on my latest quest, in case you have not lurked your way around the draft thread.

 

ZADINA!!

 

:flirt:

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So where are you pulling this thought that Minnesota was a worse team?  BU was only in the tournament because they won their auto-bid.  Minnesota was ranked higher in everything that matters.  I realize it has very little to do with your point as a whole, but I had to throw it out there.  This is a time of the year where so many oddities are thrown out there about the college game.

Offensively, 124 team goals versus 102 teams goals. When comparing production the over all production of the team matters. Offensively Mittselstadt played on a team that had less goals scored than Tkachuk. That was my line of thinking. 

Edited by Skurk Liger
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At this point, its likely that the Sabres end up in last and draft 4th. (50.65%)

 

Assume the draft goes as expected - Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina.

 

Who do you take at 4?  Im leaning Hughes at this time. PP Qb, Offensive Dman who may be the best skater in the draft. Still has much to work on in his own end but not many 18 year olds don't.

 

 

Now that Mitelstadt is in the fold, im even stronger in my conviction to draft either Boqvist or Hughes at 4.

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No desire to see Mittelstadt reunited with Tkachuk?

 

I won't be unhappy with whomever they choose (unless they go way off the draft board).

 

If Nylander wasnt a big "maybe" i could see drafting Tkachuk. I don't see Tkachuk helping the Sabres biggest need - skill and speed.

 

I feel confident that Mittestadt will help make any of his wingers really good. Though, I can see him being on Jack's wing next season.

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