2018 - 2019 Lineup

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

But I'll flesh things out a little more too w.r.t. vets in the lineup to start. LTS mentioned he doesn't think there's a meaningful difference on the ice but I simply do. I think having Kyle and Jason in is fine, but if the "vets" push Tage, Alex, Casey/Rasmus down to Rochester, then the bottom six will be flush with Girgs, Larsson, Wilson, Sobotka etc which pushes Kyle and Pommers above where they should be, and then tell me with a straight face how that's any different than our core problems last year? I can find posts from every single member of this forum describing how we need youth, speed, and depth to push half those guys out. Well, let's get at it, we did the hard part of that process already, acquiring the pieces!!

Whereas, Tage, Alex, one of Casey/Rasmus, have done enough to make the team and play effective NHL hockey, and to skate fast with guys we need playing fast, and pushing other players down into more proper positions. The lack of this has been a core tenant of my take on why we were so bad last year, so that's why it would be so mind-numbingly thick and counterproductive for them to do that, in my eyes

I can't see Mittelstadt/Dahlin as an either/or thing. They'll both be here. To me, it could be an either/or between Alex and Tage, though I really think both have earned a spot, as well. 

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

I disagree with this outright. And for the record, it was an absolute. #1 picks, especially of his talent, play in the NHL right away. It's just what happens, it's best for his development, as others have outlined.

The bolded seems to just be wrong, in my opinion. How many other defenders make the perfect outlet pass to Eichel that he converted into a goal yesterday? Sure he's making some mistakes, but if Dahlin is hypothetically our 6th D man right now (he's not), who is this 7th (and 8th? You said others, plural) defenceman who would give the Sabres a better chance of success? Beaulieu? Nelson? Bogosian? Hunwick? Tennyson? Benoit? Meszaros?

Dahlin makes the team on ability right now, everything else aside, full stop. 

This so much, and it cuts right to the heart of my fears upthread about Housley and Botterill being too "safe" in their roster selections.

Dahlin has looked bad with the puck on four or five occasions. But he has also made a number of plays that literally no one else on this team can make. He has Reinhart's head for the game and Eichel's talent.

Ignoring those plays because of the youthful mistakes that come with them is like punting from mid-field on 4th and 1.

I want to enjoy hockey games. We've got some horses. Let them run.

 

Edited September 26, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I can't see Mittelstadt/Dahlin as an either/or thing. They'll both be here. To me, it could be an either/or between Alex and Tage, though I really think both have earned a spot, as well. 

Rasmus Asplund I mean. I have to think that at least one of the two has shown they should stick, I think the chances both do or both don't are very low, which is why I've been grouping them together.

Dahlin is one of our 4 best defensemen and our defense is bad enough that it is unquestionable to think about sending him down even if he wasn't Rasmus freaking Dahlin

Edited September 26, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Rasmus Asplund I mean. 

Dahlin is one of our 4 best defensemen and our defense is bad enough that it is unquestionable to think about sending him down even if he wasn't Rasmus freaking Dahlin

Oh damn that makes so much more sense, I'm dumb. You mentioned something similar in another thread and I think and I was confused there, too. Derp. 

[shrader]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Oh damn that makes so much more sense, I'm dumb. You mentioned something similar in another thread and I think and I was confused there, too. Derp. 

So what you’re saying is that all Rasmuses look alike?  

[Randall Flagg]

At this point there are four kids we're talking about in the forward group, right? With realistic chances to make it?

Probably in order: Tage, Casey, Nylander, Asplund? Maybe switch the last two?

I want three on the team, and wouldn't make a stink about 2. I'd be a little worried with just Tage, and the rage would set in if zero of them make it. But like I've said, I'm 100% convinced at least one makes it, and 80% convinced two of them do, so I don't see it being an issue. 

Just, if they all start in Roch, we're looking at what, 

Skinner - Jack - Sam
Sheary - Berglund - Kyle
Zemgus - Sobotka - Rodrigues
Wilson - Larsson - Pominville? 

I'm not missing anyone right? That is disgusting. It's probably barely an upgrade to what we started last year with, and not at all an upgrade to our best roster at some point last year. This possibility (which again I think is zero) would indeed launch me off the deep end the way I described earlier. I can vividly taste what it felt like last October 20th, knowing there was a full calendar year before we could even hope for a season. It was awful and I believe this lineup, for zero good reason, would cement that happening again. We'd get buried doing this. 

Three good young forwards added to that roster, plus net-negative players subtracted (statistically speaking, that lineup above has like six players who are drags and objectively "bad" by any hockey thing you can measure) and the speed upgrade (both in skating and in play) that are represented can make a difference and it WILL make a difference towards us having a fun season.
 

[Hoss]

4 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

It sounds like Skinner - Jack - Sam has looked good, but they have one ES goal in their 3 games, right? If that continues, it doesn't justify keeping it together when Skinner has shown an ability to lift any teammate to a tilted ice while he's out there, if he's the focal point of the line. With Jack and Sam there's less puck for him and what he's doing for a possible relative lack of goals is better used elsewhere. 

 

Even if they have one ES goal in three games it’s THREE GAMES. You’re drowning yourself in stats. It’s three preseason games.

[DarthEbriate]

40 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Just, if they all start in Roch, we're looking at what,

I think if all of them go down to Rochester to play big minutes and dominate...  then we've got to be keeping one of Bailey/Baptiste just for 4th line speed. I'm a Baptiste Separatist apologist, but I haven't seen anything from either B saying they need to remain a Sabre, nor that another team would immediately snap them up off waivers. But someone has to be able to forecheck with more speed and tenacity than Pominville.

[Randall Flagg]

17 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Even if they have one ES goal in three games it’s THREE GAMES. You’re drowning yourself in stats. It’s three preseason games.

I've already clarified this, but I'm making a broad point as something to watch out for. I very explicitly stated that I'm not calling to break it up now, and that I shouldn't have even mentioned their games to date because it's not relevant to th epoint, just an example of what I don't want when the real ones start. I went on further to say that I want to see super line production from them, or else our depth scoring is enough of a problem to not justify keeping it together. In the lineup thread.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

So for injuries we're currently looking at:

Sheary - Day-to-day

Bogosian - Day-to-day

Hunwick - Indefinitely

Larsson - To be determined

Edited September 27, 2018 by Thorny

[LTS]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

I disagree with this outright. And for the record, it was an absolute. #1 picks, especially of his talent, play in the NHL right away. It's just what happens, it's best for his development, as others have outlined.

The bolded seems to just be wrong, in my opinion. How many other defenders make the perfect outlet pass to Eichel that he converted into a goal yesterday? Sure he's making some mistakes, but if Dahlin is hypothetically our 6th D man right now (he's not), who is this 7th (and 8th? You said others, plural) defenceman who would give the Sabres a better chance of success? Beaulieu? Nelson? Bogosian? Hunwick? Tennyson? Benoit? Meszaros?

Dahlin makes the team on ability right now, everything else aside, full stop. 

Many defenders make that pass, I've made that pass and I suck at hockey.  It happened once and you are acting like he's going to always make the play.  He's made a LOT of mistakes.  He has a TON of talent.  Finally, for the record, I didn't put him in Rochester, I just didn't put him in the starting lineup.  I've already said that he will start due to injuries to Bogosian.  I would honestly consider playing Pilut or Nelson before Dahlin right now.  I would expect them to rotate the 5/6/7 defensemen for now.

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

But I'll flesh things out a little more too w.r.t. vets in the lineup to start. LTS mentioned he doesn't think there's a meaningful difference on the ice but I simply do. I think having Kyle and Jason in is fine, but if the "vets" push Tage, Alex, Casey/Rasmus down to Rochester, then the bottom six will be flush with Girgs, Larsson, Wilson, Sobotka etc which pushes Kyle and Pommers above where they should be, and then tell me with a straight face how that's any different than our core problems last year? I can find posts from every single member of this forum describing how we need youth, speed, and depth to push half those guys out. Well, let's get at it, we did the hard part of that process already, acquiring the pieces!!

Whereas, Tage, Alex, one of Casey/Rasmus, have done enough to make the team and play effective NHL hockey, and to skate fast with guys we need playing fast, and pushing other players down into more proper positions. The lack of this has been a core tenant of my take on why we were so bad last year, so that's why it would be so mind-numbingly thick and counterproductive for them to do that, in my eyes

The bottom line question, and the thing I pointed out, was that in the first 10 games of the season, do you think there's an appreciable difference in the number of wins that the Sabres will have if they ice the veteran lineup over the younger players?  I don't think there is.  As such, given that the first 8th of the season will end up roughly the same and given that the younger players will still develop in the AHL, I can see why they would ice the veteran lineup to start the season.

The STRATEGIC (i used the word twice) play is to see if you can move the veterans before the youth forces their way into the starting lineup.  They will make the strategic play.  Why?  Because there is no difference in the first 10 games in my opinion.  They may look faster, they may play faster, the mistakes will cost them games.  Whether they lose by giving up 6 goals or 3 goals it won't matter because at the end of the season it's still a loss.

These younger players will belong in the lineup before the end of the season.  At the moment, I don't think it matters if they are in the lineup, not from a Wins and Losses perspective.

At the moment they are serviceable... but they are also not playing against a full NHL roster.  They look good against their peers and that's all they've proven.  They DO need to push those players out of the roster spots, but I don't think they've been so amazingly good in the pre-season to make it happen.  At this point it would be change, just to change, and while I understand the desire to get that line-up on the ice, it does not offer the opportunity to maximize the value of all assets for the future.

The only time a team makes moves for the NOW is when they are pushing for the Cup or pushing for last place.

It would be damn near unprecedented for a GM to insert that much youth into the opening night lineup when there were veterans who could still fulfill the role at nearly the same level.  Botterill has no history of being a guy who rushes youth into a lineup.  As such, I think it's likely that the veterans are there to start, I hope they are not there for long.

 

[dudacek]

^^^^

I have romantic and unrealistic hopes for the 85 Canadiens or the 05 Sabres.

[WildCard]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

^^^^

I have romantic and unrealistic hopes for the 85 Canadiens or the 05 Sabres.

The 2005-2006 Sabres?

[Thorny]

I'd settle for 03-04 Sabres.

[Randall Flagg]

51 minutes ago, LTS said:

Many defenders make that pass, I've made that pass and I suck at hockey.  It happened once and you are acting like he's going to always make the play.  He's made a LOT of mistakes.  He has a TON of talent.  Finally, for the record, I didn't put him in Rochester, I just didn't put him in the starting lineup.  I've already said that he will start due to injuries to Bogosian.  I would honestly consider playing Pilut or Nelson before Dahlin right now.  I would expect them to rotate the 5/6/7 defensemen for now.

The bottom line question, and the thing I pointed out, was that in the first 10 games of the season, do you think there's an appreciable difference in the number of wins that the Sabres will have if they ice the veteran lineup over the younger players?  I don't think there is.  As such, given that the first 8th of the season will end up roughly the same and given that the younger players will still develop in the AHL, I can see why they would ice the veteran lineup to start the season.

The STRATEGIC (i used the word twice) play is to see if you can move the veterans before the youth forces their way into the starting lineup.  They will make the strategic play.  Why?  Because there is no difference in the first 10 games in my opinion.  They may look faster, they may play faster, the mistakes will cost them games.  Whether they lose by giving up 6 goals or 3 goals it won't matter because at the end of the season it's still a loss.

These younger players will belong in the lineup before the end of the season.  At the moment, I don't think it matters if they are in the lineup, not from a Wins and Losses perspective.

 At the moment they are serviceable... but they are also not playing against a full NHL roster.  They look good against their peers and that's all they've proven.  They DO need to push those players out of the roster spots, but I don't think they've been so amazingly good in the pre-season to make it happen.  At this point it would be change, just to change, and while I understand the desire to get that line-up on the ice, it does not offer the opportunity to maximize the value of all assets for the future.

 The only time a team makes moves for the NOW is when they are pushing for the Cup or pushing for last place.

 It would be damn near unprecedented for a GM to insert that much youth into the opening night lineup when there were veterans who could still fulfill the role at nearly the same level.  Botterill has no history of being a guy who rushes youth into a lineup.  As such, I think it's likely that the veterans are there to start, I hope they are not there for long.

  

This sounds well and good but I have it burned into my brain from last year just how bad our bad vets are, and to see ALL of them back and playing above where they should be, when a guy like Tage, I mean, how can you say that the best place for Tage isn't the NHL? The guy was a key part of Crosby's few minutes spent in his defensive zone tonight. This sounds like the perfect description of the team that offseason time has dulled the memories of, but if it comes to play with the specific players and roster I describe above, none of them, the team, the fans, or the young kids who simply have shown NHL readiness (mostly Tage, but also apparently Nylander has pushed strong lately and Casey supposedly had his best game tonight) will benefit. 

The season is now. it starts in October. I dunno. That conversation makes sense if you're talking about Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou on the St. Louis Blues, and Jason Pominville and Derek Roy on a Sabres team whose vets owned the shot and goal shares. Ours TANK our shot and goal shares.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[mjd1001]

The more I watch the more I think Middlestadt isn't ready for the NHL yet and should spend some time in Rochester, where he will get more minutes against competition that is better than he has faced in college.  Trust me, I WANT him to be on the Sabres and WANT him to be good now, but I just don't see it.  He looks lost in the D-zone and he hasn't shown much in the offensive zone all camp or in preseason.

 

I think Thompson has looked a lot better, but he also has his ups and downs.  I'd almost like to see him in Rochester for a few weeks...with him pissed that he got sent down...and being the first callup after he lights up the AHL for a few weeks.

 

Edited September 27, 2018 by mjd1001

[Thorny]

Another argument in favor of playing the kids, who are less "safe" than some of the incumbent vets, yet prone to taking more chances (and who have the skill to sometimes convert) is the presence of Carter Hutton. There's a non-negligible chance that Hutton will continue to demonstrate the ability to "bail them out" when they make mistakes. He bailed Dahlin out several times early in the Leafs game. He might be able to cancel out a decent sized portion of the "risk" side of the equation. We can hope.

With all the Larssons and the Girgensons in, we may suffer less odd-man rushes against, but are less likely to mine the full value of the Hutton upgrade.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Thorny

[JohnRobertEichel]

This makes the most sense to me:

 

G1: Hutton

G2: Ullmark

D1: Ristolainen - Scandella

D2: Dahlin - McCabe

D3: Bogosian - Beaulieu

F1: Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

F2: Sheary - Berglund - Okposo

F3: Nylander - Mittelstadt - Thompson

F4: Rodrigues - Sobotka - Pominville

Extra: Nelson, Wilson, Girgensons

Injury: Hunwick, Larsson

Rochester: Baptiste, Bailey, Guhle, Pilut, Smith, Asplund

 

My only question is whether Baptiste and Bailey will clear waivers. I haven't quite given up on them, though I don't blame anyone who already has.

[Sabre1974]

10 minutes ago, FuhrUrsinne said:

This makes the most sense to me:

 

G1: Hutton

G2: Ullmark

D1: Ristolainen - Scandella

D2: Dahlin - McCabe

D3: Bogosian - Beaulieu

F1: Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

F2: Sheary - Berglund - Okposo

F3: Nylander - Mittelstadt - Thompson

F4: Rodrigues - Sobotka - Pominville

Extra: Nelson, Wilson, Girgensons

Injury: Hunwick, Larsson

Rochester: Baptiste, Bailey, Guhle, Pilut, Smith, Asplund

 

My only question is whether Baptiste and Bailey will clear waivers. I haven't quite given up on them, though I don't blame anyone who already has.

Pretty much agree with those lines

[Marions Piazza]

2 minutes ago, Sabre1974 said:

Pretty much agree with those lines

 

13 minutes ago, FuhrUrsinne said:

This makes the most sense to me:

 

G1: Hutton

G2: Ullmark

D1: Ristolainen - Scandella

D2: Dahlin - McCabe

D3: Bogosian - Beaulieu

F1: Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

F2: Sheary - Berglund - Okposo

F3: Nylander - Mittelstadt - Thompson

F4: Rodrigues - Sobotka - Pominville

Extra: Nelson, Wilson, Girgensons

Injury: Hunwick, Larsson

Rochester: Baptiste, Bailey, Guhle, Pilut, Smith, Asplund

 

My only question is whether Baptiste and Bailey will clear waivers. I haven't quite given up on them, though I don't blame anyone who already has.

 

3 minutes ago, Sabre1974 said:

Pretty much agree with those lines

Agree on the lines, although I do think that we see Sheary and Skinner possibly switch unless Skinner and Eichel figure out who carries the puck and drives the play.

[shrader]

12 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I've already clarified this, but I'm making a broad point as something to watch out for. I very explicitly stated that I'm not calling to break it up now, and that I shouldn't have even mentioned their games to date because it's not relevant to th epoint, just an example of what I don't want when the real ones start. I went on further to say that I want to see super line production from them, or else our depth scoring is enough of a problem to not justify keeping it together. In the lineup thread.

What's your time window for allowing them to get used to each other?  Ideally it clicks right away, but when was the last time the ideal actually happened for anything Buffalo Sabres?  Since Eichel and Reinhart should know each other's games very well at this point, I would think that cuts a couple games off of the "getting to know each other" phase.

[bob_sauve28]

11 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

The more I watch the more I think Middlestadt isn't ready for the NHL yet and should spend some time in Rochester, where he will get more minutes against competition that is better than he has faced in college.  Trust me, I WANT him to be on the Sabres and WANT him to be good now, but I just don't see it.  He looks lost in the D-zone and he hasn't shown much in the offensive zone all camp or in preseason.

 

 

Sending him down won't hurt him. He was in high school not that long ago for christ sake. 

[LTS]

11 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

This sounds well and good but I have it burned into my brain from last year just how bad our bad vets are, and to see ALL of them back and playing above where they should be, when a guy like Tage, I mean, how can you say that the best place for Tage isn't the NHL? The guy was a key part of Crosby's few minutes spent in his defensive zone tonight. This sounds like the perfect description of the team that offseason time has dulled the memories of, but if it comes to play with the specific players and roster I describe above, none of them, the team, the fans, or the young kids who simply have shown NHL readiness (mostly Tage, but also apparently Nylander has pushed strong lately and Casey supposedly had his best game tonight) will benefit. 

The season is now. it starts in October. I dunno. That conversation makes sense if you're talking about Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou on the St. Louis Blues, and Jason Pominville and Derek Roy on a Sabres team whose vets owned the shot and goal shares. Ours TANK our shot and goal shares.

Here's the point that I think you keep glossing over.  I am not saying that Thompson is NOT ready for the NHL.  I am saying that Thompson isn't so much better than the vets that it will translate into wins within the first 10 games of the season.  As such, Thompson can be sent down to the AHL (and it won't kill him) while the Sabres front office tries to move a few veterans to try and maximize their value to better the team for the future. The Sabres can retain salary in 3 trades right now... I would expect them to use that to their advantage in moving pieces off this roster to make room for the younger players.

I remember last year, I remember pointing out how bad the Sabres secondary scoring was relative to other teams in the NHL.  This years veterans are more to the middle.  While the Sabres don't have O'Reilly and Kane they also don't have Nolan and Pouliot (8 and 19pts).  They have Skinner, Berglund and Sobotka (26 and 31pts). No one is replacing O'Reilly's totals out of the gate.

Let me try one other way of stating this...

Last season the Sabres gave up roughly 1.4 goals for every 1 goal scored.

Over the early part of this season playing the veteran roster I would expect they would give up roughly the same.

Over the same stretch playing the younger players I would expect they would give up roughly 1.7 goals for every 1 goal scored.

Please note that those numbers are only being used to demonstrate the relative changes and I am not trying to predict actual scoring rates.  Essentially, I think with the younger players will score more and give up more goals and the ratio to goals against to goals for will be higher than with the vets.

Later in the season I would expect that the younger players will improve such that they might even begin scoring more goals than giving up on average.

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, FuhrUrsinne said:

This makes the most sense to me:

 

G1: Hutton

G2: Ullmark

D1: Ristolainen - Scandella

D2: Dahlin - McCabe

D3: Bogosian - Beaulieu

F1: Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

F2: Sheary - Berglund - Okposo

F3: Nylander - Mittelstadt - Thompson

F4: Rodrigues - Sobotka - Pominville

Extra: Nelson, Wilson, Girgensons

Injury: Hunwick, Larsson

Rochester: Baptiste, Bailey, Guhle, Pilut, Smith, Asplund

 

My only question is whether Baptiste and Bailey will clear waivers. I haven't quite given up on them, though I don't blame anyone who already has.

As much as we would like to see this line of kids, I highly doubt it will happen so flip KO/Thompson and I would agree with this roster.

One other exception.....I don't see Pilut going down to Roch and if he does it won't be long.

[nfreeman]

LTS -- I see your point, but I don't agree.  I think the value that can be extracted by keeping vets like Zemgus, Larsson, Pommer, Baptiste, Bailey and Bogo on the Sabres' roster with an eye towards trading them is negligible -- and does not outweigh the cost of loss of team morale that would result from seeing guys who have earned roster spots not get them.