Jack Eichel Contract Extension: Talks Occuring

[Neo]

Wow.  People are dying to overpay Eichel.  I don't blame any of you though, because you lived through DR and TM, and you've only seen JBot deal for a few months, so your not used to seeing what a good contract looks like. :P  But in all seriousness, I'm really glad JBot is negotiating this deal, because it is already obvious this guy knows how to get contracts done without overpaying.  Here is my unsolicited opinion on the matter:

 

Let's start here.

 

[ SNIP for brevity ]

 

I'm excited to see what the actual deal looks like when it's done.

 

I sorta like this ...

[LGR4GM]

Any time I see someone seriously use +/- as to why a player shouldn't get something, I have a profound problem with their argument. 

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

If you want to pay someone like they can carry an organization, they should be able to do it.  Eichel has not done it, or shown that he can do it - yet.  His body of work is small, which skews any statistical analysis when you are trying to apply it over an 8 year term.  Yes Jack is an amazing hockey player and everyone should be excited that he is considering a long term contract with the team, but he still has A LOT to prove.  

[Derrico]

Any time I see someone seriously use +/- as to why a player shouldn't get something, I have a profound problem with their argument.

But what about team adjusted +/-?

[Neo]

Whenever you sign someone, especially someone Jack's age, for long term, you get a portion of "what he is," a portion of "what our assessment predicts he will be," and a dash of "what he conceivably could be."   Forgive my mundane language used to describe the stroll along the certainty continuum.

 

Anything north of $9 million is way too much of the latter two categories for my taste.  McDavid's performance, even at his high number, is significantly more in the foremost two categories.

[Randall Flagg]

I remain confident we can get him under 10. 

[LGR4GM]

I remain confident we can get him under 10. 

I think we will. 

[Thorny]

Prediction: 8yrs $86M They offer 8yrs $82M He wants 8yrs $92M.

We will take the $86M - Puts him above Kane, Price and Toews.

 

I'm with this.

 

mother f#%$&%&^

 

 

hold please

https://www.instagram.com/p/BXWtRShAF8A/

Good stuff. Great work ethic on the kid.

 

Your entire post for not paying him what he deserves is based on a crap supporting cast, a bad head coach, and your notions of him having a 'pouting face'.

 

If you want, we can again go and dig up all of the charts and stats that show how impactful he is.

 

What's better? Paying for future performance like Eichel, or paying for past performance and winding up with a Toews or Brown contract?

This represents the crux of the argument, and I think the league is headed in this direction as a whole. Would much rather pay for future performance, if at all possible. Eichel is as close to a sure thing as you are going to get.

 

Whenever you sign someone, especially someone Jack's age, for long term, you get a portion of "what he is," a portion of "what our assessment predicts he will be," and a dash of "what he conceivably could be." Forgive my mundane language used to describe the stroll along the certainty continuum.

 

Anything north of $9 million is way too much of the latter two categories for my taste. McDavid's performance, even at his high number, is significantly more in the foremost two categories.

And a 10 million dollar per season contract for Jack contact DOES mean that McDavid is making significantly more. Eichel's points pace last season was roughly 80% of what Connor's was. 10 mil a season is 80% McDavid's 12.5. 10 mil a season is an accurate number for Eichel, when comparing and contrasting the 2 players. He's not going to get 9 million, 1m more than Ryan Johansen.

Edited August 4, 2017 by Thorny

[sweetlou]

I think this contract will really tell us what type of person Jack is.  If it is about winning and building a great team to contend for the cup, then he signs for 8-9 million.  If he is all about the money then he wants more than 9 million.

 

I can't justify paying someone who has been in the league for two years more than this list of players.

 

Crosby (3 cups- 8.7 million)

Malkin (3 cups- 9.5 million)

Stamkos  (8.5 million)

Benn (9.5 million)

Kuznetzov (7.8 million)

Tarasenko (7.5 million)

 

All of these guys are signed for at least the next five years.  All of these guys are proven players who carry their team. If Jack wants more than any of these players I think Botts should hold off and wait till next off season. He still would be an RFA so he couldn't go anywhere.  

 

DOn't get me wrong, I want Jack to be on this team for a long time, but I want it at the right price.

 

DON'T OVERPAY JUST BECAUSE HE WANTS A CONTRACT LIKE MCDAVID!!!!!

Edited August 4, 2017 by sweetlou

[3putt]

On July 1, 2018 an unsigned Eichel will get at least one likely more offer sheets.  You can't offer sheet someone under contract.  If the Sabres are trying to save a few pennies or make a statement to Jack to remind him he is not as good as Conner, I think he signs one.  I would.  If your Vegas, Carolina, NYI, or Montreal you would do an instant rebuild.  Little downside.  Comparing market value today to what people signed for 2 and 3 years ago, i.e. Crosby and Malkin, or not considering the tax advantages of Fla, i.e. Stamkos, is just foolish.  McDavid reset the market for superstar players and the rest of the bright young stars will benefit.  Not all will get the same money but as a percentage of cap, they will be paid handsomely.  

[Drunkard]

On July 1, 2018 an unsigned Eichel will get at least one likely more offer sheets.  You can't offer sheet someone under contract.  If the Sabres are trying to save a few pennies or make a statement to Jack to remind him he is not as good as Conner, I think he signs one.  I would.  If your Vegas, Carolina, NYI, or Montreal you would do an instant rebuild.  Little downside.  Comparing market value today to what people signed for 2 and 3 years ago, i.e. Crosby and Malkin, or not considering the tax advantages of Fla, i.e. Stamkos, is just foolish.  McDavid reset the market for superstar players and the rest of the bright young stars will benefit.  Not all will get the same money but as a percentage of cap, they will be paid handsomely.  

 

Not to mention they could offer sheet him something ridiculous like a 4 year offer for max money. Sure we can match it and keep him, but then we're paying him 20% of the cap (or something like that) and he's a UFA at the end of the contract. I don't think it would happen, but it is a possibility.

[LGR4GM]

I think this contract will really tell us what type of person Jack is. If it is about winning and building a great team to contend for the cup, then he signs for 8-9 million. If he is all about the money then he wants more than 9 million.

 

I can't justify paying someone who has been in the league for two years more than this list of players.

 

Crosby (3 cups- 8.7 million)

Malkin (3 cups- 9.5 million)

Stamkos (8.5 million)

Benn (9.5 million)

Kuznetzov (7.8 million)

Tarasenko (7.5 million)

 

All of these guys are signed for at least the next five years. All of these guys are proven players who carry their team. If Jack wants more than any of these players I think Botts should hold off and wait till next off season. He still would be an RFA so he couldn't go anywhere.

 

DOn't get me wrong, I want Jack to be on this team for a long time, but I want it at the right price.

 

DON'T OVERPAY JUST BECAUSE HE WANTS A CONTRACT LIKE MCDAVID!!!!!

So you would pay him less then 7.5mil?

[LGR4GM]

Sure wait till the next off-season and pay him 12-14 mil

[7+6=13]

Sure wait till the next off-season and pay him 12-14 mil

 

I'm with you that you sign him now, he'll get money now and we'll save 16-32 mil.

 

As Drunkard said above, the worst part is if he gets an offer sheet we have to meet that's 4 years.   Then you've cost yourself north of 40 mil.

[dudacek]

Do what it takes to sign him for eight years.

 

Shaught! Has a good take on what it should take.

[pi2000]

But what about team adjusted +/-?

 

Eichel's TRpm (team relative plus minus) was a +6 last season...    Meaning he's a positive contributor when compared to his teammates.   

[WildCard]

If you want to pay someone like they can carry an organization, they should be able to do it.  Eichel has not done it, or shown that he can do it - yet.  His body of work is small, which skews any statistical analysis when you are trying to apply it over an 8 year term.  Yes Jack is an amazing hockey player and everyone should be excited that he is considering a long term contract with the team, but he still has A LOT to prove.  

Again though, this mentality of paying for past performance is just not a good idea. This is how you get stuck with bad contracts and for players out of their primes. Eichel is in his prime, pay him like it

[Pokey Jones]

I don't know what he's actually worth as the team around him was so bad we have no real sense of how good he can be. All I know is they have to lock him down for the long term and hope it works. Myself, I expect his numbers to go way up if Housley can get this team playing with the kind of speed and quick puck movement I know in theory, he wants them to do. Can't count the number of times last year Jack was alone with no one to pass to, no one moving at his deceptive pace. Have to get Reinhart off his wing and find someone who can skate with him and develop chemistry at a higher tempo. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I don't know what he's actually worth as the team around him was so bad we have no real sense of how good he can be. All I know is they have to lock him down for the long term and hope it works. Myself, I expect his numbers to go way up if Housley can get this team playing with the kind of speed and quick puck movement I know in theory, he wants them to do. Can't count the number of times last year Jack was alone with no one to pass to, no one moving at his deceptive pace. Have to get Reinhart off his wing and find someone who can skate with him and develop chemistry at a higher tempo. 

 

Good post and welcome to the board.

[I-90 W]

A couple days ago it seemed like a deal was going to be reached any minute, thought it would have been finalized by now. Either way it's going to happen at 8 years so I'm not concerned, only question obviously is how much still.

[Thorny]

Anyone quoting guys like Benn, Tarasenko, Kuznetsov: completely bogus argument. Saying Jack shouldn't be paid like them, because he hasn't accomplished enough. Ask yourself: Would you seriously take any of those guys over Jack, if you were a GM? The answer is hell no. So why would Botterill be able to pay Jack less and get away with it?

 

Look at the ranking of NHL players thread on this very site. You can basically count the players that should be making more than Jack, value wise, on one hand.

 

These comparable are straw men, no one actually believes that they are better players than Jack. Jack will get more $ and deserves it.

 

On July 1, 2018 an unsigned Eichel will get at least one likely more offer sheets.  You can't offer sheet someone under contract.  If the Sabres are trying to save a few pennies or make a statement to Jack to remind him he is not as good as Conner, I think he signs one.  I would.  If your Vegas, Carolina, NYI, or Montreal you would do an instant rebuild.  Little downside.  Comparing market value today to what people signed for 2 and 3 years ago, i.e. Crosby and Malkin, or not considering the tax advantages of Fla, i.e. Stamkos, is just foolish.  McDavid reset the market for superstar players and the rest of the bright young stars will benefit.  Not all will get the same money but as a percentage of cap, they will be paid handsomely.

 

Yup. Let's low-ball the most talented skater to grace the Sabres logo since Perreault, and watch him get offersheeted. Maybe he'll sign it, we'll lose him, and we can run a narrative that says we didn't want Jack anyways because he's not a team player. After all, he didn't take a discount to stay.

 

Pay da man.

[Pokey Jones]

The thing about Jack that gives me hope is I remember watching so many games last year of dull uninspired hockey, almost always behind and no remote scoring chances outside of that power play (that was pretty good) and then suddenly he'd just make an odd move or take an impossible shot and score and I'd think "holy crap, how'd he do that?"  If we don't sign him long term and build a real team around him we might as well blow it all up now and start yet again. 

[7+6=13]

The thing about Jack that gives me hope is I remember watching so many games last year of dull uninspired hockey, almost always behind and no remote scoring chances outside of that power play (that was pretty good) and then suddenly he'd just make an odd move or take an impossible shot and score and I'd think "holy crap, how'd he do that?"  If we don't sign him long term and build a real team around him we might as well blow it all up now and start yet again. 

 

You don't need to worry about either of these things happening.  Do you not see what they're building?

[sweetlou]

WOW I must be the only one on this thread that is not a complete Homer but pays attention to the entire league.  Jack is awesome and deserves to be paid. But not at McDavid money, or even above 10 mil.  Pittsburgh is prime example of having star players take good contracts and not get overpaid so they can have a competitive team around them.  Chicago on the other hand has faltered the last few years because they don't have enough good players to compliment their stars who are both making over 10mil.  

 

I get the argument that the cap will be going up, but we don't know at what pace.  Again look at LA and Chicago, overpaid and now suffering.

Edited August 7, 2017 by sweetlou

[LGR4GM]

WOW I must be the only one on this thread that is not a complete Homer but pays attention to the entire league. Jack is awesome and deserves to be paid. But not at McDavid money, or even above 10 mil. Pittsburgh is prime example of having star players take good contracts and not get overpaid so they can have a competitive team around them. Chicago on the other hand has faltered the last few years because they don't have enough good players to compliment their stars who are both making over 10mil.

 

I get the argument that the cap will be going up, but we don't know at what pace. Again look at LA and Chicago, overpaid and now suffering.

10 mil is significantly less than 12.5 mil.