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How far are the Sabres from a playoff berth this year?


PromoTheRobot

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45 games into the season we have 40 points. That's a pace to finish with 73, a 19-point improvement from last year. We are 10 points out of a wild card berth.

 

Montreal has 50 points in 45 games. They are on a pace to hit 91 points. That means the Sabres need to go 26-11 (.702) in the remaining 37 games to get 91 points. Lat year Pittsburgh was the #8 seed with 98 points. By whatever measure the Sabres are pretty much out of it barring a miracle run.

Edited by PromoTheRobot
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This season isn't about the playoffs.  Obviously it is for the players, but as far as the fans and team management are concerned this particular level of play was to be expected.

 

Now that Eichel, Risto and Reinhart all have their feet thoroughly wet, I'll be disappointed if we aren't competitive in the division next season.  Biggest x-factor is whether or not Lehner will emerge as a consistent starter...and if not, will the team give somebody else a fair shake.

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This season isn't about the playoffs.  Obviously it is for the players, but as far as the fans and team management are concerned this particular level of play was to be expected.

 

Now that Eichel, Risto and Reinhart all have their feet thoroughly wet, I'll be disappointed if we aren't competitive in the division next season.  Biggest x-factor is whether or not Lehner will emerge as a consistent starter...and if not, will the team give somebody else a fair shake.

I honestly don't view Lehner as an x-factor at all, or really even a factor. Goalies are a dime a dozen in this league, and unless you're one of the top 5 (Price, Henrik, Crawford, Rask, Holtby) then there really isn't a gap between the rest. Even if Lehner flames out, I'm more than confident Ullmark can become a top 5 goalie, or we can find someone Johnson-esk at any time to suffice.

 

X-factor for me next year is all about if our 5 young guys can take it to the next level. 

Edited by WildCard
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I honestly don't view Lehner as an x-factor at all, or really even a factor. Goalies are a dime a dozen in this league, and unless you're one of the top 5 (Price, Henrik, Crawford, Rask, Holtby) then there really isn't a gap between the rest. Even if Lehner flames out, I'm more than confident Ullmark can become a top 5 goalie, or we can find someone Johnson-esk at any time to suffice.

 

X-factor for me next year is all about if our 5 young guys can take it to the next level.

You included Crawford in that group?!?! Maybe you're not worthy of watching Die Hard.

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Thanks to the poster here who put me onto this guy (not sure who - but you posted his thing about the 12-22-82 line's Corsi last night). 

 

Anyhoo, here's something he Tweeted about playoffs in the east:

 

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For those eternally optimistic Sabres fans in the crowd, Buffalo needs to go 20-9-7 to reach 89 points.

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Here's something odd... There are currently 3 teams in playoff positions projected to finish with fewer than 90 points. 89 could get you in!

 

+++ 

 

Twas Randall.

 

"5-on-5 shot attempts with Gionta on the ice: Sabres 15, Coyotes 5; with Foligno 14-5; Larsson 15-8. Their O-zone start %'s were under 30."

@DaveDavisHockey

 
Edited by That Aud Smell
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If the Sabres had their act together all year like they have since Christmas, they'd be on a playoff pace.  And the first part of this season was a throw-away while DD instilled his system and the young guys learned how to NHL.  I think it's reasonable to assume that every single roster spot will be the same or better (by players improving and moving marginal players off the team to be replaced by better ones), so, they're close this year but no cigar.  Next year..... cigar.

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I think unless we go on a unforeseen role to end the season, there are just too many teams in front of us to be able to push on thru to the playoffs this year. Having said that, the top 5 teams in the West...Chicago, LA, Minnesota, St.Louis and Dallas, we have already played them 8 of the 10 times we'll see them this year. Of the top 6 teams in the East presently, Florida, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Washington, NYI and the Rangers, we have played 14 times and have only 7 games left with these teams. So we have already played presumably the best teams in the NHL at total of 22 times in our first 46 games.

 

The schedule does get a lot easier in that scenario but that means we have to win a big majority of our games against the teams that are still in front of us. The rosy part of this scenario is we are presently playing our best hockey of the season right now, not just in winning 4 or our last 5 but our overall play. The kids are starting to understand their roles and have gained confidence plus they appear to have gained a new found confidence in themselves and their teammates.

 

I can only think of 2 games out of our last 15-20 that we've looked bad, the Florida game and the Boston game a few games back. All the rest we've at the very least have been very competitive in even when we lost. So there's hope until Melissa McCarthy starts singing.

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We're at 2.2% chance of making the playoffs right now.  I'd say this season will be a huge success if they can merely make the playoff chase interesting...as in getting within 5 pts of the last spot within the last 10-15 games.  I'll be optimistic and put the chances of that happening at 20%.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

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