TrueBlueGED Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 True but often misunderstood and misrepresented by both sides. I always want to know variables used, P values and sample sizes. Even then they must taken as a piece of a larger picture. Then hockey analytics must leave you awfully disappointed, since full-blown statistical models aren't exactly the name of the game here--as far as I know, publicly available models focus on point projections for teams/players (such as Hockey Prospectus' VUKOTA). I'd expect the more advanced teams to have cooler stuff internally, but what we mostly have access to is pretty rudimentary in the grand statistical landscape. Raw data availability is still a mountain being climbed, and it has largely been a fan/blogger-fueled effort because the NHL sucks (things like the zone entry project and passing project are awesome, but they're happening largely due to the NHL's lackluster stat tracking). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Got my email this morning. Check your inboxes. Got mine too, but I've already got other plans. I'd love it if someone would send me the materials afterwards, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) Then hockey analytics must leave you awfully disappointed, since full-blown statistical models aren't exactly the name of the game here--as far as I know, publicly available models focus on point projections for teams/players (such as Hockey Prospectus' VUKOTA). I'd expect the more advanced teams to have cooler stuff internally, but what we mostly have access to is pretty rudimentary in the grand statistical landscape. Raw data availability is still a mountain being climbed, and it has largely been a fan/blogger-fueled effort because the NHL sucks (things like the zone entry project and passing project are awesome, but they're happening largely due to the NHL's lackluster stat tracking). Not so disappointed, but skeptical when I see someone quoting stats as implying as the reason a team is playing bad or good. Some of the newer stats are interesting and as you and I implied incomplete. Though not without some value... I would love, since I don't have the time, to have someone explain both the limitations as well as the positive correlations of some of the newer stats coming out.., ie to get a better sense of their overall value Edited October 8, 2015 by North Buffalo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Not so disappointed, but skeptical when I see someone quoting stats as implying as the reason a team is playing bad or good. Some of the newer stats are interesting and as you and I implied incomplete. Though not without some value... I would love, since I don't have the time, to have someone explain both the limitations as well as the positive correlations of some of the newer stats coming out.., ie to get a better sense of their overall value I think those who are intimately involved in the stats are acutely aware of the strengths/weaknesses of what's currently available and how best to draw meaningful inferences from it. Anecdotally, people with at best a cursory interest tend to be those who consistently over/under state the value of what's available. Honestly, the best recommendation I can make is to fork over $8 and carve out time to read the Hockey Abstract 2015 Update: http://store.payloadz.com/details/2329945-ebooks-sports-rob-vollmans-hockey-abstract-2015-update.html Like a good college textbook, it's a really nice scattershot of what's out there right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 I think those who are intimately involved in the stats are acutely aware of the strengths/weaknesses of what's currently available and how best to draw meaningful inferences from it. Anecdotally, people with at best a cursory interest tend to be those who consistently over/under state the value of what's available. Honestly, the best recommendation I can make is to fork over $8 and carve out time to read the Hockey Abstract 2015 Update: http://store.payloadz.com/details/2329945-ebooks-sports-rob-vollmans-hockey-abstract-2015-update.html Like a good college textbook, it's a really nice scattershot of what's out there right now. TY right after I get done passing my MRI licensing exam... but sounds interesting maybe during a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 TY right after I get done passing my MRI licensing exam... but sounds interesting maybe during a game. Just read about statistics instead of watching the game. That's what all of us nerds do anyway, or so I'm told :ph34r: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=782338&navid=DL|NHL|home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 So final rollcall is myself, Taro and TBGED tomorrow right? Blue, Dave and I already know each other, but if you're trying to find us tomorrow morning, here's a visual guide. Dave: Myself: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 That is eerily somewhat accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 If you two could print giant versions of those pictures and place them on your backs, that'd be swell. I'm going to be a zombie until probably 10, so the most ridiculous visual cues possible would be appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 Bwahhahahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 If you two could print giant versions of those pictures and place them on your backs, that'd be swell. I'm going to be a zombie until probably 10, so the most ridiculous visual cues possible would be appreciated. If I speak at a reasonable volume you will feel my voice deep in your mind. So that should guide you easily as well as wake you from your comatose state. Also you could just PM me your info and I could just text you when I get there like a grown adult. I bet we're gonna have name tags. I bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 If you two could print giant versions of those pictures and place them on your backs, that'd be swell. I'm going to be a zombie until probably 10, so the most ridiculous visual cues possible would be appreciated. d4rk is the most obviously obvious person in the world. shant be difficult Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) Not so disappointed, but skeptical when I see someone quoting stats as implying as the reason a team is playing bad or good. I'm no stat head. Barely understand them. [edit: Both stats and stat heads.] But I don't think anyone would ever say the stats are the reason a team is playing poorly. It's the other way around, to be sure. "That team stinks, and here, take a lot at their relative Corsi. Totally confirms it." That was last year's Sabres, for sure. Man. Just awful. What interests me more are when the #fancystats people will say things like "Calgary is a mirage. They won't sustain this level of success. The imbalance reflected in the stats [note: NOT the stats themselves] will catch up with them." That sorta did not happen last year, nah? I mean, eventually it did. But Calgary outplayed their #fancystats assessment by a good margin, IIRC. Edited October 9, 2015 by That Aud Smell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josie Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 d4rk is the most obviously obvious person in the world. shant be difficult I dunno. He's been dressing nicer lately and it's super weird. I don't know who he is anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 I remember blue telling me that the Avalanche are a mirage, and he was right. I dunno. He's been dressing nicer lately and it's super weird. I don't know who he is anymore. Did he weave his beard into a sweater? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josie Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 Did he weave his beard into a sweater? :w00t: Thankfully no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 Did he weave his beard into a sweater? I'm confused, are you asking if he used his beard to make a new sweater, or woven his beard into an existing sweater to make a permanent man/sweater hybrid. Also, it's it "we've' now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 If I speak at a reasonable volume you will feel my voice deep in your mind. So that should guide you easily as well as wake you from your comatose state. Also you could just PM me your info and I could just text you when I get there like a grown adult. I bet we're gonna have name tags. I bet. How dare you try to get me to act like an adult. Never again. I'm no stat head. Barely understand them. [edit: Both stats and stat heads.] But I don't think anyone would ever say the stats are the reason a team is playing poorly. It's the other way around, to be sure. "That team stinks, and here, take a lot at their relative Corsi. Totally confirms it." That was last year's Sabres, for sure. Man. Just awful. What interests me more are when the #fancystats people will say things like "Calgary is a mirage. They won't sustain this level of success. The imbalance reflected in the stats [note: NOT the stats themselves] will catch up with them." That sorta did not happen last year, nah? I mean, eventually it did. But Calgary outplayed their #fancystats assessment by a good margin, IIRC. Every year you're going to have a team or two that outperform what we'd expect based on the underlying numbers. But that still leaves 26 teams conforming. Most will fall in line with the numbers within the course of a single season, but not always. Assuming the correlation we see is accurate and predictive (the overwhelming evidence says yes on both counts) it's really the exact pattern we'd expect to see. More to the point, I can't think of any examples of teams "beating" the numbers for consecutive seasons. Toronto a couple years ago? Crash and burn the following season. Colorado the same. A few years back Minnesota did the same thing, only they did it from the first half of the season to the second half. Hell, just look back at the freak outs last year when the Sabres won 10/13, and what happened after that. The Flames this year are the next test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 I'm confused, are you asking if he used his beard to make a new sweater, or woven his beard into an existing sweater to make a permanent man/sweater hybrid. Also, it's it "we've' now? Thanks for having my back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted October 10, 2015 Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 My most fervent wish is that by now Blue, Taro and d4rk have realized this was all a MLM scam. Several co-attendees are suffering brutal egg farts, the circulation in the room is non existent, and when our threesome tried to leave, they discovered doors locked from the outside. They did allow d4rk to leave the room to go to the bathroom to vomit, but he was followed by a strange dude who wanted to pet his beard. Is that too much to ask? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted October 10, 2015 Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 My farts are pretty bad today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted October 11, 2015 Report Share Posted October 11, 2015 My farts are pretty bad today. I spent the whole second half of the conference suppressing pizza-induced farts. Could've gotten ugly quick without such restraint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted October 11, 2015 Report Share Posted October 11, 2015 How was the conference guys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted October 11, 2015 Report Share Posted October 11, 2015 How was the conference guys? Did you not read the last 2 posts? It was awful. :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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