Hockey Analytics

[WildCard]

Maybe this has been posted here, but this website offers any metric you could ever want. It basically links you to any site with the stat you desire, very handy. Seriously, any stat. Salary, heat-maps for players on the ice, war-on-ice, TOI, per game stats, per season stats, line mates, shooting%...just name it, it's on there

http://www.nicetimeonice.com/?game=2015020088&game_order=desc&game_type=2&season=2015&team=BUF

Edited October 22, 2015 by WildCard

[That Aud Smell]

I enjoy #fancystats very much, but I can't say I disagree with this sentiment:

 

"Brian Burke to @BNN: 'Analytics are like a lamppost to a drunk. They’re good for support, but not for illumination.'"

 

This is not unlike what GM TM had said (paraphrasing): The less you know about the game, the more useful the advanced stats are. The more you know about the game ... well, the less useful (or necessary) they are.

[WildCard]

HERO Charts, takes a player and tells you what line they should be playing on based on various stats, the role they play, and their pace. This just in, Gionta belongs on the 3rd line in every single category.

http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/2015/02/horizontal-evaluative-rankings-optic.html

[TrueBlueGED]

I enjoy #fancystats very much, but I can't say I disagree with this sentiment:

 

"Brian Burke to @BNN: 'Analytics are like a lamppost to a drunk. They’re good for support, but not for illumination.'"

 

This is not unlike what GM TM had said (paraphrasing): The less you know about the game, the more useful the advanced stats are. The more you know about the game ... well, the less useful (or necessary) they are.

 

My simple response is this: then why do teams (some of the best) have analytics departments at all? The answer, of course, is they do more than confirm existing hockey hypotheses. But they do confirm some things, such as Burke is just an old bitter dinosaur. I dare say, some of the resistance to analytics is because the numbers have challenged some existing beliefs about what's effective.

[JJFIVEOH]

I enjoy #fancystats very much, but I can't say I disagree with this sentiment:

 

"Brian Burke to @BNN: 'Analytics are like a lamppost to a drunk. They’re good for support, but not for illumination.'"

 

This is not unlike what GM TM had said (paraphrasing): The less you know about the game, the more useful the advanced stats are. The more you know about the game ... well, the less useful (or necessary) they are.

 

Uh oh, I'm taking cover...... 

[That Aud Smell]

My simple response is this: then why do teams (some of the best) have analytics departments at all? The answer, of course, is they do more than confirm existing hockey hypotheses. But they do confirm some things, such as Burke is just an old bitter dinosaur. I dare say, some of the resistance to analytics is because the numbers have challenged some existing beliefs about what's effective.

Can't even disagree about Burke.

 

And you're right about there being real value in the #fancystats, of course.

 

What did you make of GM TM's take on them? Not that far off from Burke's, I'd say.

[TrueBlueGED]

Can't even disagree about Burke.

 

And you're right about there being real value in the #fancystats, of course.

 

What did you make of GM TM's take on them? Not that far off from Burke's, I'd say.

Murray's words are very similar to Burke's, for sure. But his actions and words since that statement say he values them much more. My take? His uncle didn't use them much and what Ottawa had is more rudimentary than what he's been exposed to here. Edited November 10, 2015 by TrueBlueGED

[That Aud Smell]

Do his actions really indicate that he supports analytics, or does his own eyeball test and hockey acumen simply make his decisions match what the advanced statistics say?

 

I'm asking.

 

Also, this post is fully talk to text.

[TrueBlueGED]

Do his actions really indicate that he supports analytics, or does his own eyeball test and hockey acumen simply make his decisions match what the advanced statistics say?

 

I'm asking.

 

Also, this post is fully talk to text.

No way to know for sure. Being a stats guy I'd like to think these things frequently match up.

 

The way I hear his interviews and things like being willing to give O'Reilly an expensive long term commitment and signing Franson (the stats lime him a lot more than the eye test does), I think it's clear the stats are in there and matter. I'm also aware I could he guilty of seeing/hearing what I want to, especially when he does things like the Lehner trade.

 

Bottom line for me is I think he uses them and they play a fairly important role in his decision making process. But I don't think he makes choices based purely on numbers, nor would anyone argue he should. I love me some Tim Murray.

 

Edit: Ultimately, I think he'se more into the stats than he wants to lead on publicly.

Edited November 10, 2015 by TrueBlueGED

[That Aud Smell]

The way I hear his interviews and things like being willing to give O'Reilly an expensive long term commitment and signing Franson (the stats like him a lot more than the eye test does), I think it's clear the stats are in there and matter. 

....

Edit: Ultimately, I think he's more into the stats than he wants to lead on publicly.

 

Good stuff, especially those two items.

[LGR4GM]

Murray's words are very similar to Burke's, for sure. But his actions and words since that statement say he values them much more. My take? His uncle didn't use them much and what Ottawa had is more rudimentary than what he's been exposed to here.

I thought we had an entire analytics department (2-3 guys) who work for the Sabres.

[darksabre]

I would just note that analytics is probably much more useful to coaches than to GMs. A GM evaluating a player is typically focusing just on that player. Statistics on the whole are far too likely to be influenced by the rest of the team. Isolating a player really takes a lot of the meaningful statistics and breaks them. 

[That Aud Smell]

I thought we had an entire analytics department (2-3 guys) who work for the Sabres.

 

I think they do have that. Ongoing question is how that work product feeds into the player eval process.

 

I would just note that analytics is probably much more useful to coaches than to GMs. A GM evaluating a player is typically focusing just on that player. Statistics on the whole are far too likely to be influenced by the rest of the team. Isolating a player really takes a lot of the meaningful statistics and breaks them. 

 

Well, now, that surprises me a little. I thought #fancystats were much more the province of GMs, scouts.

 

Also, I'm not sure I comprehend what you're saying at the end there.

[darksabre]

I think they do have that. Ongoing question is how that work product feeds into the player eval process.

 

 

Well, now, that surprises me a little. I thought #fancystats were much more the province of GMs, scouts.

 

Also, I'm not sure I comprehend what you're saying at the end there.

This is likely my own bias about how I see stats being useful. I think stats are great for analyzing game flow, strategy, and breaking down how other teams play together. I don't think I care about them at the individual player level. I think I prefer watching a player to see his habits, skills, etc. That evaluation I don't believe can be done with stats. 

[TrueBlueGED]

Successfully separating the player from the team is the most significant challenge for statistical analysis, but it's getting there. Of course, I think that's a huge challenge for traditional scouting as well. My most basic view is that trying to evaluate individual players with only one tool is a grave mistake, and how David Clarkson contracts happen.

Edited November 10, 2015 by TrueBlueGED

[darksabre]

Successfully separating the player from the team is the most significant challenge for statistical analysis, but it's getting there. Of course, I think that's a huge challenge for traditional scouting as well. My most basic view is that trying to evaluate individual players with only one tool is a grave mistake, and how David Clarkson contracts happen.

Right. And I think that where analytics is at right now is not good enough for someone like GMTM. Stats have to get better first, and from what we saw at the conference, there are a lot of people out there who know this and are working very hard at it. 

[That Aud Smell]

Huh.

 

Good stuff. Thanks.

[TrueBlueGED]

Right. And I think that where analytics is at right now is not good enough for someone like GMTM. Stats have to get better first, and from what we saw at the conference, there are a lot of people out there who know this and are working very hard at it.

I'd give a testicle (the smaller one) to see what teams like the Blackhawks and Kings have internally. I really wonder how much more advanced they are than what we have publicly.

[darksabre]

I'd give a testicle (the smaller one) to see what teams like the Blackhawks and Kings have internally. I really wonder how much more advanced they are than what we have publicly.

I have this hunch that we might be shocked by how little they're actually doing. 

[TrueBlueGED]

I have this hunch that we might be shocked by how little they're actually doing.

I dunno, Stan Bowman has been pretty open that they have proprietary stuff that not only won't he give the specifics on, but he won't even disclose generally what they're about. That tells me the use is pretty significant.

[darksabre]

I dunno, Stan Bowman has been pretty open that they have proprietary stuff that not only won't he give the specifics on, but he won't even disclose generally what they're about. That tells me the use is pretty significant.

Interesting. 

 

I admit, Chicago has been really good at plugging the right players into their system time and time again. There's gotta be something to that, even if it's just a way of scouting for other players that they can just plug in, traditional game stats be damned. 

[dudacek]

Last interview with Murray on WGR he dropped a specific #fancystats reference, then joked about how he could "go on about this stuff all day long" or words to that effect.

He pays more attention to this stuff than his old-time Canadian hockey persona would like to have you believe.

[Hoss]

Last interview with Murray on WGR he dropped a specific #fancystats reference, then joked about how he could "go on about this stuff all day long" or words to that effect.

He pays more attention to this stuff than his old-time Canadian hockey persona would like to have you believe.

I've always thought Murray gave off the impression he was a fancy stats enthusiast.

[Eleven]

So the NHL is populating its stats databases with random numbers?

 

http://yosttravis.tumblr.com/post/133148427661/sap-nhl-and-the-long-con

[TrueBlueGED]

So the NHL is populating its stats databases with random numbers?

 

http://yosttravis.tumblr.com/post/133148427661/sap-nhl-and-the-long-con

To be precise, SAP is populating the NHL's site with random numbers :p