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Trade: Myers, Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, + Low 1st for Kane, Bogosian, and Kasdorf


dudacek

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My Myers jersey is now obsolete.  :censored:  And I hate the trade if it is indeed done. I think we overpaid.

 

I have a Stafford jersey but it was already obsolete... Slug logo.  Actually, a Stafford jersey with a slug logo seems kind of appropriate.

anybody listenting to the WPG radio guys?  they're drooling over Stafford, lol

 

Good luck to him.  I think he may be a solid player wherever he lands next season, but not with Buffalo.

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I don't think we can agree on anything at this point, since we just don't know how all of this is going to shake out in the years to come.

 

Honestly. I just don't get the hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth. The team is terrible. Awful. This trade is a clear signal that GM TM is charting a course to improve sooner rather than later. While he had promised that he'd do that, this is the first action in that regard. How can this be viewed or received as anything but welcome news?

 

Does that all mean I know it will all work out? No. Certainly not. But it very well might, and if GM TM is the man I think he is, I like our chances.

Fair enough. 

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Interesting POVs on the radio, certainly making me think about all of this, of course, combined with the opinions here.

 

I'm starting to think that if Kane is everything all of the pro-Kane folk say he is, then this was a pretty good deal. But, again, I'm not sold on him.

 

The point I really wanted to make, though, is that I so hate Mike Schopp. He's such a d*ckhead. The guy's emotional maturity is stunted and is stuck at 17 years old.

In regards to Schopp, there's something most of us can agree on. 

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And, it's a go for setting expectations higher than reasonable. Apparently the radio folks were talking about 40 goals today.  (not picking on you, dudacek, just trying to head this off at the pass)

 

I'll put this in bold. And caps: PATRICK Kane didn't score 30 last year. We should be hoping that he'll be top-10 in goals for LW (#9 last year scored 30 exactly), but if he doesn't net 30 he's not a bust. K? #28-30 at LW scored 19 goals each. 40 goals puts him ahead of everyone not named Ovechkin. Let's not go crazy when he puts up 25 on a mediocre team.

I hear you, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 25 to 35 goals for Kane as an all-situations guy on the first line with Reinhart or McEichel. Murray didn't pay that price for him to be a 20/20 Drew Stafford who can hit.

 

Just tuned into Winnipeg radio to get their perspective. Sounds like they are happy with the return.

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The first question I would ask prospects, is if we drafted you, do you think there is a reason you wouldn't sign with us

And they would all say the same thing, "no" because their agents will have already prepped them.

 

Also even though Kris Baker retweeted that I have not seen it confirmed by anyone so readers be wary of it's actuality. 

Edited by LGR4GM
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Alright.  The shock is starting to subside.  Let's calm it down a bit and try to take an objective view of this, if that's possible.

 

Let's review:

 

Sabres acquire:

Evander Kane, signed through 2018 at $5.25 million per season.

Zach Bogosian, signed through 2019 at $5.14 million per season.

Unsigned prospect Jason Kasdorf.

 

Jets acquire:

Tyler Myers, signed through 2019 at $5.5 million per season.

Drew Stafford, signed through 2015 at $4 million per season.

Joel Armia, signed through 2016 at $894,167 per season.

Unsigned prospect Brendan Lemieux.

Lowest BUF 1st rounder.

 

  • Bogosian is a former 3rd overall pick from 2008.  He's a seven year NHL veteran.  According to this year's player usage, he's a two-way defenseman that plays the toughest minutes among the WPG D.  And astats say he succeeds at it.  He's been playing 22-24 minutes per game, regularly putting him 3rd-4th on WPG in minutes (behind Bfugliendsan mostly).  Hockey's Future noted that at one point he looked like he may underachieve, but only because the 2008 1st round was so star-studded- he would show his worth in the 2011-12 campaign (the first year of hockey back in WPG and Bogosian's career year with 30 points in 65 games).  I believe him to be a highly-capable 2nd-pair defenseman on an elite contender or a top-pair defender on a middle-of-the-road team.
  • Kasdorf is a former 6th round pick from 2011.  Hockey's Future describes him as a hometown pick for WPG, but his freshman year at RPI appears impressive, as he posted a 1.62GAA and a 0.935%.  He helped RPI go to the NCAA regional semifinals with an at-large bid that year.  He had a season-ending shoulder injury last year, from which he's worked his way back.  I believe him to be an AHL goalie, but he's a few years from developing.  His senior year at RPI will unfold the tale.
  • Kane is a former 4th overall pick from 2009.  In 2009, Hockey's future described Kane: "A superb skater with excellent acceleration. With his quick release, Kane is a threat to score every time he steps on the ice. NHL scouts say he has pure goal scoring instincts... He handles the physical rigors well, in part because he is a difficult target to lock on to. ... Skill set is reminiscent of a young Mike Modano..."  I believe Kane is capable of being an elite NHL forward.

Let's break the trade down, so we can swallow it.  This is roughly two trades:

 

Myers <-> Bogosian and Kasdorf

Fair.  Myers' NTC clause would have kicked in this summer, which would have severely limited our trade options and partners if we wanted to move him in the future.  Bogosian is a good defenseman with similar terms to Myers.  When we considered trading Myers away for picks and prospects, some of us were concerned with maintaining a stout defense, especially over the next two years.  This concern is addressed.  There's no longer a hole left by the movement of Myers.  Bonus: we fill out the goalie stable a little.

 

Kane <-> Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, and 1st:

  • First, Stafford's a rental.  But he addresses WPG's winger issue, especially with the loss of Kane, while they make a run at the playoffs.
  • Second, that first rounder, while hard to predict, is probably in the 24-28 range.
  • HF describes Armia: "A budding power forward, Armia is one of Finland’s most heralded young players. He has a rare combination of size and goal-scoring ability, using his 6’3 to shield the puck and soft hands to stickhandle and shoot. He needs to work on his defensive play, especially 1-on-1, and his skating ability."  But when we look at Armia's performance in Rochester, he's simply not producing numbers that translate into NHL performance.  I know he was injured, but he still has a big question mark or possibly a long development path.  When we talk of an accelerated turn-around, it's not clear that Armia, who was supposed to be among the top winger prospects for Buffalo, fits that timeline.
  • EP describes Lemieux: "Perfectly fits the cliche has a player you hate to play against but love to have on your team. Like his father Claude, Brendan will drive the opposing team crazy as he is the perfect agitator. Lemieux also has the ability to burn you offensively as he is a top 5 scorer on Barrie. He showed the ability to both agitate and score in the CHL Top Prospects Game."  Moving Lemieux stings a little, because he was drafted in a time when we needed to become tougher to play against.  But he's likely not elite talent, and on a contender, he may well end up a third liner- or fourth if he doesn't develop his two-way game at the highest level.  Keep in mind that Zack Kassian had better numbers in juniors and presented more tenacity. edit: Now it turns out that Lemiuex may not have been interested in signing. If that's the case, he's absolutely must-sell.

This second part of the trade is a real gem of uniqueness.  You almost never see it.  It is a true "quantity package for quality talent" deal.  You have a few months of Stafford, a late 1st, a slow-developing RW prospect, and a Kassian-like prospect, all for a 4th overall winger potentially capable of being elite.  Again, that's a rental and unproven prospects for a real NHL talent under contract.  It's a gamble that Kane works out as hoped, although GMTM's, apparently been hot about him for years.  It's also a gamble that Armia and Lemiueux won't turn around and blow up into a missed opportunity, but I think the odds of that are well-assessed by GMTM.  If you consider that Winnipeg was likely asking for a roster player, a top prospect, and a pick, and we give them a rental, two ok prospects, and a pick, I think we're getting a discount on that asking price by a little bit while better meeting Winnipeg's immediate needs than most other teams.  Fair.

 

Strategy:

From a front office mentality perspective, I love it.  It's aggressive.  And we need aggressive to turn this heap over.  For now, we have to take on faith that it's not aggressively stupid.  But GMTM's starting down the road to make this the team he envisions, the team that walks down the path towards playoffs, contention, and parades.  He's acquiring the winger he knows he needs next to the centers he has drafted and will draft.  He's selling Myers at the highest value he's had so far.  He's accelerating the rebuild by turning prospects into players.  I didn't think he would start this process until the summertime, but by then, many more teams would have been competing for Kane.

 

Tactics:

GMTM just armored the tank.  Kane's out for the season and we moved Stafford, who was 3rd on the team in points.

Edited by IKnowPhysics
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I think its about as equal as trades get.  Lots of neutral fans think buffalo won, a lot of neutral fans think winnipeg won.  Buffalo fans hate losing those guys, same with winnipeg fans.

 

We added two core pieces to our top 6 and top 4.  We gave up one core piece and traded away assets.  It is what it is.  Getting a 23 year old top 6 players and a 24 year old top 4 player who both have a lot of potential doesnt come cheap

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Kane better fix his attitude and quick. He's too good to be a prick and a douchebag. And I don't want to see the drama that seems to constantly follow him anywhere near this team.

 

Other than that, sayonara to Myers who hasn't sniffed his rookie campaign and Stafford who was languishing in Sabres purgatory. 

Edited by TheMatrix31
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I don't know if it's a good thing or not that Drane can't post right now. On the one hand, he'd probably be entitled to the biggest "I told you so" since I've been a member of this board with respect to Myers being traded. On the other hand, he'd have to reconcile one of his favorite building teams (Winnipeg) acquiring one of his least favorite pieces (Myers) in a blockbuster trade. On second thought, watching Drane self-combust might be pretty entertaining.

 

I think the most exciting part of this is we're starting to see Murray's vision for the Sabres come into focus. He wants big guys who play the body but can skate and have skill. This is of course what many around here have wanted for ages, but I've always feared adding size and grit and ending up big and slow without enough offense. Luckily, that doesn't appear to be happening right now. Kane can skate like the wind and obviously has offensive ability, and Bogosian may not bring offense but he's not exactly an anchor like Regehr out there. Just trying to piece next year's roster together with what we have:

 

Kane-Reinhart-Ennis

Moulson-McEichel-Hodgson (sorry haters, I don't think he's getting bought out)

Grigorenko-Girgensons-Gionta

Deslauriers-McCormick/Larsson-Foligno

 

Zadorov-Ristolainen

Gorges-Bogosian

XXX-Pysyk

 

That's not terrible. Too many LWs and could use some right-side help, but that is not a 50 point team. I'm excited.


And, it's a go for setting expectations higher than reasonable. Apparently the radio folks were talking about 40 goals today.  (not picking on you, dudacek, just trying to head this off at the pass)

 

I'll put this in bold. And caps: PATRICK Kane didn't score 30 last year. We should be hoping that he'll be top-10 in goals for LW (#9 last year scored 30 exactly), but if he doesn't net 30 he's not a bust. K? #28-30 at LW scored 19 goals each. 40 goals puts him ahead of everyone not named Ovechkin. Let's not go crazy when he puts up 25 on a mediocre team.

 

Not really directed at you in particular, but I see goal stats used in Kane (Patrick) comparisons a lot and I really don't like it. He's more playmaker than goal scorer and a huge amount of his value is going to reside in assists.

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I don't know if it's a good thing or not that Drane can't post right now. On the one hand, he'd probably be entitled to the biggest "I told you so" since I've been a member of this board with respect to Myers being traded. On the other hand, he'd have to reconcile one of his favorite building teams (Winnipeg) acquiring one of his least favorite pieces (Myers) in a blockbuster trade. On second thought, watching Drane self-combust might be pretty entertaining.

 

I think the most exciting part of this is we're starting to see Murray's vision for the Sabres come into focus. He wants big guys who play the body but can skate and have skill. This is of course what many around here have wanted for ages, but I've always feared adding size and grit and ending up big and slow without enough offense. Luckily, that doesn't appear to be happening right now. Kane can skate like the wind and obviously has offensive ability, and Bogosian may not bring offense but he's not exactly an anchor like Regehr out there. Just trying to piece next year's roster together with what we have:

 

Kane-Reinhart-Ennis

Moulson-McEichel-Hodgson (sorry haters, I don't think he's getting bought out)

Grigorenko-Girgensons-Gionta

Deslauriers-McCormick/Larsson-Foligno

 

Zadorov-Ristolainen

Gorges-Bogosian

XXX-Pysyk

 

That's not terrible. Too many LWs and could use some right-side help, but that is not a 50 point team. I'm excited.

I think this is exactly what Murray wants.  I noticed that every player he gets seems to be a good skater with size.  Deslauriers is and Kane is obviously.  To me I wonder if we are going to see a team that is comprised of guys with those core attributes of Size/Skating/Grit with various levels of skill.  Kane is obviously at the top end of that spectrum right now.

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What are your thoughts on this trade, good sir?

 

Thanks for asking! I like the move. I would have been happy with Kane for Myers straight up. 

 

Evander Kane is the best player in this deal. For all the griping about his off-ice behavior, has he broken any laws?  I've never really seem him let up on the ice. He hits. He's a hellava fighter, and a straight ahead hockey player. As for his attitude and off-ice issues - I dunno...He's what? 23? Charges straight to the net. He's fearless, not always productive, but fearless. 

 

Bogosian I think will really surprise a lot of people. He's not really  a drop-off from Myers IMO, a bit more compact, a more explosive hitter and skating stride. I think Buffalo will love him. 

 

So Murray has added a top 6 forward, and a top 4D.  And has parted with Myers and a rental. 

 

The pot-sweeteners.......Armia, Lemieux, and Pick. C'est la vie. The Sabres pool of prospects, already too big,  is really just that, collateral for the real business deals. 

 

I don't really see that Buffalo has lost that much here other than the ability to package and move up in the draft. 

 

Myers, I'm confident will be a better player away from Buffalo. 

 

This makes Buffalo a much tougher team next year. 

 

 

Gorges-Bogosian

Risto-Zads  is going to turn into a pretty mobile and tough D. 

 

Scotty Bowman always used to say that the team that gets the best player wins the trade. 

I think Buffalo got the best player in Kane. But that remains to be seen. 

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I think this is exactly what Murray wants.  I noticed that every player he gets seems to be a good skater with size.  Deslauriers is and Kane is obviously.  To me I wonder if we are going to see a team that is comprised of guys with those core attributes of Size/Skating/Grit with various levels of skill.  Kane is obviously at the top end of that spectrum right now.

 

More thinking about this, the pieces are really starting to fit together nicely. One thing I found interesting in Murray's presser was his emphasis on Kane's willingness to go to the neck, that he plays around the net in the Ozone, and so on. While Moulson can't skate, all of his goals pretty much come in that net-front area. Get some creative distributors in the center of the ice (Reinhart and McEichel) and let them get the puck to the skilled guys in tight windows in front of the net. I'm excited! I've gone from liking the trade to loving it in two hours!

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More thinking about this, the pieces are really starting to fit together nicely. One thing I found interesting in Murray's presser was his emphasis on Kane's willingness to go to the neck, that he plays around the net in the Ozone, and so on. While Moulson can't skate, all of his goals pretty much come in that net-front area. Get some creative distributors in the center of the ice (Reinhart and McEichel) and let them get the puck to the skilled guys in tight windows in front of the net. I'm excited! I've gone from liking the trade to loving it in two hours!

I am warming up to it.

 

I did shake in the corner for about 2 hours first though.

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Alright.  The shock is starting to subside.  Let's calm it down a bit and try to take an objective view of this, if that's possible.

 

Let's review:

 

Sabres acquire:

Evander Kane, signed through 2018 at $5.25 million per season.

Zach Bogosian, signed through 2019 at $5.14 million per season.

Unsigned prospect Jason Kasdorf.

 

Jets acquire:

Tyler Myers, signed through 2019 at $5.5 million per season.

Drew Stafford, signed through 2015 at $4 million per season.

Joel Armia, signed through 2016 at $894,167 per season.

Unsigned prospect Brendan Lemieux.

Lowest BUF 1st rounder.

 

  • Bogosian is a former 3rd overall pick from 2008.  He's a seven year NHL veteran.  According to this year's player usage, he's a two-way defenseman that plays the toughest minutes among the WPG D.  And astats say he succeeds at it.  He's been playing 22-24 minutes per game, regularly putting him 3rd-4th on WPG in minutes (behind Bfugliendsan mostly).  Hockey's Future noted that at one point he looked like he may underachieve, but only because the 2008 1st round was so star-studded- he would show his worth in the 2011-12 campaign (the first year of hockey back in WPG and Bogosian's career year with 30 points in 65 games).  I believe him to be a highly-capable 2nd-pair defenseman on an elite contender or a top-pair defender on a middle-of-the-road team.
  • Kasdorf is a former 6th round pick from 2011.  Hockey's Future describes him as a hometown pick for WPG, but his freshman year at RPI appears impressive, as he posted a 1.62GAA and a 0.935%.  He helped RPI go to the NCAA regional semifinals with an at-large bid that year.  He had a season-ending shoulder injury last year, from which he's worked his way back.  I believe him to be an AHL goalie, but he's a few years from developing.  His senior year at RPI will unfold the tale.
  • Kane is a former 4th overall pick from 2009.  In 2009, Hockey's future described Kane: "A superb skater with excellent acceleration. With his quick release, Kane is a threat to score every time he steps on the ice. NHL scouts say he has pure goal scoring instincts... He handles the physical rigors well, in part because he is a difficult target to lock on to. ... Skill set is reminiscent of a young Mike Modano..."  I believe Kane is capable of being an elite NHL forward.

Let's break the trade down, so we can swallow it.  This is roughly two trades:

 

Myers <-> Bogosian and Kasdorf

Fair.  Myers' NTC clause would have kicked in this summer, which would have severely limited our trade options and partners if we wanted to move him in the future.  Bogosian is a good defenseman with similar terms to Myers.  When we considered trading Myers away for picks and prospects, some of us were concerned with maintaining a stout defense, especially over the next two years.  This concern is addressed.  There's no longer a hole left by the movement of Myers.  Bonus: we fill out the goalie stable a little.

 

Kane <-> Stafford, Armia, Lemieux, and 1st:

  • First, Stafford's a rental.  But he addresses WPG's winger issue, especially with the loss of Kane, while they make a run at the playoffs.
  • Second, that first rounder, while hard to predict, is probably in the 24-28 range.
  • HF describes Armia: "A budding power forward, Armia is one of Finland’s most heralded young players. He has a rare combination of size and goal-scoring ability, using his 6’3 to shield the puck and soft hands to stickhandle and shoot. He needs to work on his defensive play, especially 1-on-1, and his skating ability."  But when we look at Armia's performance in Rochester, he's simply not producing numbers that translate into NHL performance.  I know he was injured, but he still has a big question mark or possibly a long development path.  When we talk of an accelerated turn-around, it's not clear that Armia, who was supposed to be among the top winger prospects for Buffalo, fits that timeline.
  • EP describes Lemieux: "Perfectly fits the cliche has a player you hate to play against but love to have on your team. Like his father Claude, Brendan will drive the opposing team crazy as he is the perfect agitator. Lemieux also has the ability to burn you offensively as he is a top 5 scorer on Barrie. He showed the ability to both agitate and score in the CHL Top Prospects Game."  Moving Lemieux stings a little, because he was drafted in a time when we needed to become tougher to play against.  But he's likely not elite talent, and on a contender, he may well end up a third liner- or fourth if he doesn't develop his two-way game at the highest level.  Keep in mind that Zack Kassian had better numbers in juniors and presented more tenacity. edit: Now it turns out that Lemiuex may not have been interested in signing. If that's the case, he's absolutely must-sell.

This second part of the trade is a real gem of uniqueness.  You almost never see it.  It is a true "quantity package for quality talent" deal.  You have a few months of Stafford, a late 1st, a slow-developing RW prospect, and a Kassian-like prospect, all for a 4th overall winger potentially capable of being elite.  Again, that's a rental and unproven prospects for a real NHL talent under contract.  It's a gamble that Kane works out as hoped, although GMTM's, apparently been hot about him for years.  It's also a gamble that Armia and Lemiueux won't turn around and blow up into a missed opportunity, but I think the odds of that are well-assessed by GMTM.  If you consider that Winnipeg was likely asking for a roster player, a top prospect, and a pick, and we give them a rental, two ok prospects, and a pick, I think we're getting a discount on that asking price by a little bit while better meeting Winnipeg's immediate needs than most other teams.  Fair.

 

Strategy:

From a front office mentality perspective, I love it.  It's aggressive.  And we need aggressive to turn this heap over.  For now, we have to take on faith that it's not aggressively stupid.  But GMTM's starting down the road to make this the team he envisions, the team that walks down the path towards playoffs, contention, and parades.  He's acquiring the winger he knows he needs next to the centers he has drafted and will draft.  He's selling Myers at the highest value he's had so far.  He's accelerating the rebuild by turning prospects into players.  I didn't think he would start this process until the summertime, but by then, many more teams would have been competing for Kane.

 

Tactics:

GMTM just armored the tank.  Kane's out for the season and we moved Stafford, who was 3rd on the team in points.

Thanks for this, IKP... between my being absurdly overtired and less knowledgeable about the other Jets players acquired, the news earlier today had me seriously pissed off and thinking Murray overpaid.  I still share your concern about the move potentially being "aggressively stupid" and a lot hinges on Kane deciding to act like a professional, but (for now) I'm stepping back off the ledge.

Thanks for asking! I like the move. I would have been happy with Kane for Myers straight up. 

 

Evander Kane is the best player in this deal. For all the griping about his off-ice behavior, has he broken any laws?  I've never really seem him let up on the ice. He hits. He's a hellava fighter, and a straight ahead hockey player. As for his attitude and off-ice issues - I dunno...He's what? 23? Charges straight to the net. He's fearless, not always productive, but fearless. 

 

Bogosian I think will really surprise a lot of people. He's not really  a drop-off from Myers IMO, a bit more compact, a more explosive hitter and skating stride. I think Buffalo will love him. 

 

So Murray has added a top 6 forward, and a top 4D.  And has parted with Myers and a rental. 

 

The pot-sweeteners.......Armia, Lemieux, and Pick. C'est la vie. The Sabres pool of prospects, already too big,  is really just that, collateral for the real business deals. 

 

I don't really see that Buffalo has lost that much here other than the ability to package and move up in the draft. 

 

Myers, I'm confident will be a better player away from Buffalo. 

 

This makes Buffalo a much tougher team next year. 

 

 

Gorges-Bogosian

Risto-Zads  is going to turn into a pretty mobile and tough D. 

 

Scotty Bowman always used to say that the team that gets the best player wins the trade. 

I think Buffalo got the best player in Kane. But that remains to be seen. 

And thanks to you as well, XB.

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I don't know if it's a good thing or not that Drane can't post right now. On the one hand, he'd probably be entitled to the biggest "I told you so" since I've been a member of this board with respect to Myers being traded. On the other hand, he'd have to reconcile one of his favorite building teams (Winnipeg) acquiring one of his least favorite pieces (Myers) in a blockbuster trade. On second thought, watching Drane self-combust might be pretty entertaining.

 

I think the most exciting part of this is we're starting to see Murray's vision for the Sabres come into focus. He wants big guys who play the body but can skate and have skill. This is of course what many around here have wanted for ages, but I've always feared adding size and grit and ending up big and slow without enough offense. Luckily, that doesn't appear to be happening right now. Kane can skate like the wind and obviously has offensive ability, and Bogosian may not bring offense but he's not exactly an anchor like Regehr out there. Just trying to piece next year's roster together with what we have:

 

Kane-Reinhart-Ennis

Moulson-McEichel-Hodgson (sorry haters, I don't think he's getting bought out)

Grigorenko-Girgensons-Gionta

Deslauriers-McCormick/Larsson-Foligno

 

Zadorov-Ristolainen

Gorges-Bogosian

XXX-Pysyk

 

That's not terrible. Too many LWs and could use some right-side help, but that is not a 50 point team. I'm excited.

 

Not really directed at you in particular, but I see goal stats used in Kane (Patrick) comparisons a lot and I really don't like it. He's more playmaker than goal scorer and a huge amount of his value is going to reside in assists.

Good post.

 

And I think Drane would love this deal. Got two physical, type A personalities, while giving up one, and that one is only 18.

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