josie Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 An excellent read. Also a bit of a long read. Scary as all hell. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one Very good read. Seems very thorough with just enough utter fear/sensationalism to make people keep reading/think a little. I asked a geologist friend of mine what her take is on it, and she has yet to dig into that particular article, but her colleagues seem to be of the "nod head in agreement, then shrug" persuasion. Not too much to be done about it, just awareness that it's a possibility, like the Yellowstone caldera eruption. A bit more likely than that one, especially since the 2011 Japanese quake is so close in memory. I absolutely loved the section dealing with the discovery of the 1699/1700 earthquakes/tsunamis. Love me some science-y detective work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Very good read. Seems very thorough with just enough utter fear/sensationalism to make people keep reading/think a little. I asked a geologist friend of mine what her take is on it, and she has yet to dig into that particular article, but her colleagues seem to be of the "nod head in agreement, then shrug" persuasion. Not too much to be done about it, just awareness that it's a possibility, like the Yellowstone caldera eruption. A bit more likely than that one, especially since the 2011 Japanese quake is so close in memory. I absolutely loved the section dealing with the discovery of the 1699/1700 earthquakes/tsunamis. Love me some science-y detective work. What haunts me about that is that this scenario is - with a high degree of scientific certainty - a when not an if. And that "when" appears to be in the "could happen any day now" territory. The volcano stuff is less predictable (or maybe just less well understood), as far as I can tell. And I agree with that -- outstanding stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 (edited) What haunts me about that is that this scenario is - with a high degree of scientific certainty - a when not an if. And that "when" appears to be in the "could happen any day now" territory. The volcano stuff is less predictable (or maybe just less well understood), as far as I can tell. And I agree with that -- outstanding stuff. Not as much that volcano's aren't as predictable, but in the case of the Yellowstone caldera, the cycle is far too long worry about it in my lifetime. It erupts every 700,000-ish years, so even a 1% variance is 7000 years. The interesting part about the Cascadia Fault stuff is apparently its cycle is less than 300 years, and we're already past that. I'd put even money that it happens in my lifetime (50 years, if I'm lucky). The caldera is over due too, maybe the Cascadia Fault "adjustment" will trigger the caldera, and we're all screwed. Edited July 14, 2015 by MattPie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 An excellent read. Also a bit of a long read. Scary as all hell. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one Why is everywhere except Upstate NY in some kind of apocalyptic danger zone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Why is everywhere except Upstate NY in some kind of apocalyptic danger zone? If that caldera blows, it's an extinction type event. Upstate will be in danger. It may be worse for us here. Our end will take a little more time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Not as much that volcano's aren't as predictable, but in the case of the Yellowstone caldera, the cycle is far too long worry about it in my lifetime. It erupts every 700,000-ish years, so even a 1% variance is 7000 years. U.S. Geological Survey, University of Utah, and National Park Service scientists with the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) see no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future. Recurrence intervals of these events are neither regular nor predictable. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josie Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Why is everywhere except Upstate NY in some kind of apocalyptic danger zone? This area is legitimately the safest place I have ever lived. No major earthquakes, no drought, no catastrophic flooding, no hurricanes, few/weak tornadoes, and a fairly basic understanding of survival in snowstorms. Honestly, all I have to fear is alcohol poisoning from waiting out a blizzard. U.S. Geological Survey, University of Utah, and National Park Service scientists with the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) see no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future. Recurrence intervals of these events are neither regular nor predictable. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/ Yeah, this scenario scared the pants off me a couple years ago when everyone got all riled up/learned about it. The Cascadia situation seems to be a much more tangible threat. But again, I rather felt that way with the caldera when info came out as well. Great, now I have yet another thing to sit around and read about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 To Mattpie's point, the Cascadia subduction threat appears far more real and imminent because its interval rate is far smaller and based on much more recent activity - about once every 240 years or so for the last 10,000 years. The caldera stuff goes back millions of years and has 3 occurrences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 An excellent read. Also a bit of a long read. Scary as all hell. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one Thanks for sharing this Smell, that was a very interesting read. Very often when I read scientific articles I find myself realizing that nature and its power is so much stronger than anything we as humans can understand, and there is very little to nothing we can do as a species to stop natural disasters from occurring. I love living in Western New York btw. No worry about hurricanes/tsunamis/earthquakes/tornadoes etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 (edited) WNY has a significant fault line in it, FYI. Little writeup. Edited July 14, 2015 by IKnowPhysics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 (edited) The LHC will go down in history as one of, if not the, most important creation in the history of man. It continues to have huge success. LHCb spokesperson Guy Wilkinson commented: "The pentaquark is not just any new particle… It represents a way to aggregate quarks, namely the fundamental constituents of ordinary protons and neutrons, in a pattern that has never been observed before in over fifty years of experimental searches. "Studying its properties may allow us to understand better how ordinary matter, the protons and neutrons from which we're all made, is constituted." http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33517492 Edited July 14, 2015 by WildCard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Pluto! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Cool. Do you have a link to the article? I'd be interested in reading it. Here's one... http://www.iflscience.com/physics/new-particle-discovery-lhc-could-reveal-what-we-are-made Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josie Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Huh. Found this somewhat overly dramatic documentary on the Cascadia subduction... Pretty much exactly the New Yorker article, even has the same experts interviewed. It was posted on youtube back in 2011. If you can ignore the dramatic music and silly screen shakes, there are some nice visualizations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yukp0bPkQxs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Good find. Looks like it has the National Geographic imprimatur on it. I think it's a little odd that the author didn't acknowledge this piece (?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Huh. Found this somewhat overly dramatic documentary on the Cascadia subduction... Pretty much exactly the New Yorker article, even has the same experts interviewed. It was posted on youtube back in 2011. If you can ignore the dramatic music and silly screen shakes, there are some nice visualizations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yukp0bPkQxs Good find. Looks like it has the National Geographic imprimatur on it. I think it's a little odd that the author didn't acknowledge this piece (?). While you're at it, there's an OK docudrama on a Yellowstone Caldera explosion on Netflix. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano_%28film%29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 Thanks, man. Interesting stuff. As guess as they are able to move particles at faster and faster speeds it should be able to help us detect smaller and smaller sub particles as they get smashed together. We could have had it built in the US too but in the end it's probably for the best that it isn't. I could see the tea party stopping the funding for it in order to give rich people another tax cut or something. Actually, we probably couldn't have built it in the US, because the place it SHOULD have been built (Nevada) was in serious NIMBY mode and the place that wanted it (Texas) and where it started getting built was unsuitable for it. Cost overruns unfortunately made it easy for the politicians (who didn't care about it anyway) to kill it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 14, 2015 Report Share Posted July 14, 2015 I think it'd be best to save political pot-shots for that other thread. Certainly not thread policing though, just my opinion. I like my science to be awe-inspiring, not headache-inducing : P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted July 15, 2015 Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 New horizon signal is 400 million miles from home. Should know in about 15m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted July 15, 2015 Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 New Horizons phoned home USA! USA! We are the only country to visit all nine planets. Space stuff brings out my inner geek. What an incredible achievement. All systems are nominal on the craft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 15, 2015 Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 New Horizons phoned home USA! USA! We are the only species to visit all nine planets. Space stuff brings out my inner geek. What an incredible achievement. All systems are nominal on the craft. : ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabills Posted July 15, 2015 Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 New Horizons phoned home USA! USA! We are the only country to visit all nine planets. Space stuff brings out my inner geek. What an incredible achievement. All systems are nominal on the craft. I get like physically giddy about this stuff. I was watching the Philae comet landing with bated breath. There was less chance of all out "failure" with this one, but still. That last photo was taken from something like 400,000 miles out, the newest ones we get will be from 8,000. Thats about the diameter of the earth. Can't wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted July 15, 2015 Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 Suck it Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted July 15, 2015 Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 Nation States are dumb. I'm so proud of us. I re-watched Interstellar to celebrate, was my family's first time seeing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted July 15, 2015 Report Share Posted July 15, 2015 ((alright)^(alright))^(alright) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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