LGR4GM Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 (edited) Mitch Marner has scored 90 points in 42 games so far for the Knights this season, which equates to roughly 51 points over 82 games. It'd be very surprising (like MacKinnon surprising) if he actually accomplished that, for lots of reasons (usage in the NHL, playing more than nine games and burning a year of ELC, developing his two way game), but it appears possible and his scoring has definitely accelerated in juniors. A couple more, for fun. These are some rarer cases where NHLe fails and guys make a big leap forward, thus proving themselves indispensable prospects to their clubs. The departure from the predicted value is caused not just by the players' development, but by the increase in minutes and the quality linemates they've earned, compared to an average rookie: From his work in Grand Rapids in the AHL, Tomas Tatar could've expected to reasonably score 26 points in his 73 games last season for Detroit. But he busted open in the NHL with 39 points last year. He's on pace for 37 goals and 60 points this season and he's currently the Red Wings' leading scorer. Maybe that's why Babcock doesn't want to move him. Similarly, Gustav Nyquist also lit up the A, and should've posted about 27 points in his 57 games with the Red Wings last year. Instead, he put up 48. Aaron Ekblad should have about 12 points in his 44 games, but he's put up 25 points. This demonstrates one of the things that's exciting about McDavid. Based on his 60 points in 23 games so far this season with Erie, you might expect he could post 62 points in the NHL using NHLe. BUT he could earn opportunities to play more than the average rookie, if he doesn't have gaping developmental holes in his game. He could be playing big minutes with great linemates and lots of powerplay time, which, like Tomas Tatar, could allow him to post 50% more points than NHLe predicts. Then you're having conversations about a possible 93-point rookie, in which his statistical colleagues are Malkin, Yzerman, Bossy, Niuewendyk, Trottier, Crosby, Hawerchuk, Ovechkin, etc. If Eichel were able to play right away and get on the great side of some great minutes, his NHLe could boost 50% from 58 points towards 87 points. But that could be asking a lot of his usage and playing opportunities. Nevertheless, it shows why Eichel could be considered a #1 overall in other years. My only question about them having that 50% jump in points to say get into the 80point range is that in recent years only about 5 players score 80 or more points when everything is said and done so I wonder with scoring deflation occurring if the 60's point range is actually what we should be expecting from our players. Last year there were only 7 NHL players with 80pts or more. 4 players had 79. Edited January 21, 2015 by LGR4GM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresFuture Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 At this point I may be more worried about Arizona - they are awful and will probably sell more parts off. The good news is that their ROW right now is 13 vs. ours at 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresBillsFan Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 At this point I may be more worried about Arizona - they are awful and will probably sell more parts off. The good news is that their ROW right now is 13 vs. ours at 8. That's what I have been telling people. I just have this strange feeling that no matter where they finish they are going to win that draft lottery. Arizona doesn't have any really great offensive players coming besides Domi and could use a player like McDavid to fill seats in an already shaky market. God I hope I'm wrong though but that's why I want Buffalo to finish last overall at least they would be guarnteed Eichel and I would be more than happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 At this point I may be more worried about Arizona - they are awful and will probably sell more parts off. The good news is that their ROW right now is 13 vs. ours at 8. LeBrun reported that they likely won't sell off much in season. They'll wait to move Yandle and don't want to do a major tear down... So Vermette, Moss and one other UFA I can't remember will likely be moved. We can likely match that (Vermette is better than our UFAs but the gap won't close enough after we both sell off our expiring deals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanny Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 Michalek was the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresBillsFan Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 The only good thing about Arizona is that Tippet always has them play hard. The games I have watch them play he gets max effort out of his team almost every night. Unlike Nolan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woods-racer Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just want to say THANKS! to IKP for taking the time out to enlighten me on the statistical theory of hockey stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 And McDavid wasn't even the "Top Line Center" during WJCs. Reinhart was the first first over the boards during PK and PP and drew toughest assignments for Team Canada. Eichel did the same thing for the US. Being a year older makes a lot of difference when you're talking 17/18 years old, but that is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 The only good thing about Arizona is that Tippet always has them play hard. The games I have watch them play he gets max effort out of his team almost every night. Unlike Nolan. I just don't think effort has really been a problem minus a couple of bad eggs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 My only question about them having that 50% jump in points to say get into the 80point range is that in recent years only about 5 players score 80 or more points when everything is said and done so I wonder with scoring deflation occurring if the 60's point range is actually what we should be expecting from our players. Last year there were only 7 NHL players with 80pts or more. 4 players had 79. You're probably right. Trying to predict what these top end players are capable of is really an extrapolation of the data, and is almost by definition unreliable. And there's so many real life factors that could pare that 50 percent boost down to 25, 15, 5 percent. Or in the case of a team that's facing a lot of statistical adversity, it could be lower, and player may not meet their NHLe. When I get a couple more minutes, I'll do a comprehensive look at top-two (or more) picks and whether they were able to meet the expectations calculated by this method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 Being a year older makes a lot of difference when you're talking 17/18 years old, but that is encouraging. Agree wholeheartedly on the difference between 17/18yo Hockey Players , but McDavid isn't a typical 17yo. McDavid is best player in the draft, however if he used his WJC Performance to separate himself from Eichel should he have drawn Reinhart's Assignment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 Agree wholeheartedly on the difference between 17/18yo Hockey Players , but McDavid isn't a typical 17yo. McDavid is best player in the draft, however if he used his WJC Performance to separate himself from Eichel should he have drawn Reinhart's Assignment? It could just be that Team USA didn't have a better center, while Team Canada did (negating things like chemistry with other players and matchups). It doesn't surprise me too much that Reinhart would be better at this stage since he's a year older and has gotten a taste of the NHL, which would only go to show him how much better he needs to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodork Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 (edited) You guys aren't gonna like this article from Puck Daddy (not that I do): Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid must go to Carolina and Arizona Edited January 21, 2015 by biodork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 You guys aren't gonna like this article from Puck Daddy (not that I do): Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid must go to Carolina and Arizona http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/22566-official-2015-nhl-draft-thread/page__st__1400#entry644714 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodork Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://forums.sabres...400#entry644714 :oops: Go figure... one of the 3 or so threads I don't bother with! There's so many damn tank threads I never know where to post this stuff anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I am Defecting Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://forums.sabres...400#entry644714 Happy Birthday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted January 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 :oops: Go figure... one of the 3 or so threads I don't bother with! There's so many damn tank threads I never know where to post this stuff anymore. That'll learn ya. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 (edited) [if someone more organized than me wants to pull these NHLe posts into a new thread, I'm fine with that.] I compiled all of the relevant NHLe data on the top five drafts of each year going back to 2005 (Crosby draft). Using the NHLe factors I posted above, I calculated the expected NHLe of every top five draft pick had for their first 30+ game NHL season. I compared this NHLe to their actual production in that first 30+ game season. Top five draft picks, regardless of position, on average, scored 19% more points in their first 30+ game NHL season than what NHLe predicted they would. Forwards scored on average 12% more. Defense scored 34% more. 1st overall picks scored a whopping 53% more. 2nd overall picks scored 28% more. 3rd overall picks scored 5% more.. 4th overall picks scored 22% more. 5th overall picks scored 1% less. The forward to most exceed expectations was Bobby Ryan (98% percent more points than NHLe). The defenseman to most exceed expectations has been Aaron Ekblad (114% percent more points than NHLe so far this season). Jack Johnson was the defenseman to least meet expectations (67% fewer points) in their first 30+ game season. Brayden Schenn was the forward to least meet expectations (41% fewer points) in their first 30+ game season. Nino Neiderreiter was so bad with the Islanders (1 point in 55 games), that I gave him a pass as an outlier and used the stats from his transition in Minnesota, where he beat expectations by 49%. It appears that, on average, NHLe underrates elite prospects. This is because NHLe normally averages every player that makes the jump from whichever league to the NHL, and it seems like elite players are getting more ice time, better usage, power play time, better linemates, etc, than the average prospect making the jump, which enhances elite prospects' point production. This new knowledge can be applied to the upcoming draft (using players in the CSS rankings): 1st overall Connor McDavid 2.61 PPG in OHL NHLe: 62 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 70-95 points. 2nd overall Jack Eichel 1.70 PPG in NCAA NHLe: 57 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 63-73 points. 3rd overall Noah Hanifin 0.59 PPG in NCAA NHLe: 20 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 20-27 points. 4th overall Lawson Crouse 0.77 PPG in OHL NHLe: 18 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 20-22 points. Remember that this kid is 6'4" 212lbs at age 17. 5th overall Dylan Strome 1.86 PPG in OHL NHLe: 44 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 44-49 points. Edited January 21, 2015 by IKnowPhysics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's some awesome info, IKP. Good work. Seeing that first overall picks perform over 50% above expectations on a consistent basis makes me hope even more than I already was that we win the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 (edited) 2nd overall from 2014 Sam Reinhart 1.8 PPG in OHL NHLe: 43 points in 82 NHL games. New NHLe: 48-55 points. Note that Ennis is leading the pace year towards 48 points. Edited January 21, 2015 by IKnowPhysics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted January 21, 2015 Report Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great work IKP, few questions though. How did you calculate the new NHLe? Crosby scored 102 points his rookie campaign, playing with Mario for 26 games until he got hurt. Do we envision McEichel being the top line center on the fist night? I'm assuming we are, so does that leave Reinhart/Girgs battling for the second line, or can we put them together? If you have the numbers for all of the top 5 picks going back to Crosby, would you mind posting them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 (edited) Great work IKP, few questions though. How did you calculate the new NHLe? Crosby scored 102 points his rookie campaign, playing with Mario for 26 games until he got hurt. Do we envision McEichel being the top line center on the fist night? I'm assuming we are, so does that leave Reinhart/Girgs battling for the second line, or can we put them together? If you have the numbers for all of the top 5 picks going back to Crosby, would you mind posting them? Thanks. I took the "classic" NHLe and mulitplied by the average amount that the group of players have historically exceeded their NHLe. Example: Forwards picked in the top five exceed their NHLe on average about 12% (a factor of 1.12). First overall picks exceeded their NHLe on average about 53% (a factor of 1.53). So looking at McDavid again, who had 2.61PPG in the OHL (NHLe factor 0.29)... 2.61PPG x 0.29 x 82 NHL games = 62 points 62 points x 1.12 = 70ish points 62 points x 1.53 = 95ish points Using the boost from the new NHLe, it's possible that McDavid could score 70-95 points, depending on whether he plays like a "top five pick forward" or a "number one overall pick" historically has. Edited January 22, 2015 by IKnowPhysics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Due to my laziness, there's technically a few minor errors in this, but the results are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thanks. I took the "classic" NHLe and mulitplied by the average amount that the group of players have historically exceeded their NHLe. Example: Forwards picked in the top five exceed their NHLe on average about 12% (a factor of 1.12). First overall picks exceeded their NHLe on average about 53% (a factor of 1.53). So looking at McDavid again, who had 2.61PPG in the OHL (NHLe factor 0.29)... 2.61PPG x 0.29 x 82 NHL games = 62 points 62 points x 1.12 = 70ish points 62 points x 1.53 = 95ish points Using the boost from the new NHLe, it's possible that McDavid could score 70-95 points, depending on whether he plays like a "top five pick forward" or a "number one overall pick" historically has. Again, solid work, thanks. I would honestly expect McDavid to put up more than Crosby's 102 points his rookie year. Everything we've heard about him suggests a better player than Crosby is, and more physically adaptable for the NHL (bigger kid). Though Crosby played in post-lockout NHL when the Sabre's small/speed guys were even getting it done, so I'm not sure how that factors in. I spent a solid 20 minutes looking at that table; really interesting stuff. I don't know enough about the early years of those players (i.e. line mates of Crosby and others in the mid 2000's) but looking at some of the later guys, such as MacKinnon, Hall, Drasaitl, etc. it's pretty clear which players were able to come in to a talented roster and which weren't. Drouin vs Barkovs' deviation confused me for a second as they are -26% and -9% respectfully while being projected at mid 24 and 26 points, but a second look tells me Drouin still has 18 games to up his current point total from 18---->24 to reach his NHLe. I thought his NHLe would be much higher given the talent he's coming into on the Lightening. I thought it could be lower because of people doubting his skill without MacKinnon, but he stayed in juniors without him last year and put up even a better year, so it can't be that. Quick search tells me it's because he gets 4th line minutes. Makes the expected value that much more impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calti Posted January 22, 2015 Report Share Posted January 22, 2015 McDavid really expected to be better than Crosby???/ Holy S batman!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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