2013 - 2014 Sabres Prospects

[26CornerBlitz]

@SabresProspects

2/16 Recap: Sunday Funday http://www.sabresprospects.com/2014/02/216-recap-sunday-fun-day.html …

 

#Sabres

[Hoss]

So are we worried about Armia at all? He never showed year-to-year improvement with Ässät and hasn't shown much in Rochester this year. At one point I really thought he was on his way to stardom, but he hasn't done much to instill any confidence in his development.

 

He had 18-11-29 in 48 games as a 17 year old which is where his stock really blew up. That's a .6 PPG pace.

Had 18-20-38 in 54 games as an 18 year old. That's a .7 PPG pace.

19-14-33 in 47 games last year. Same .7 PPG pace.

 

He's got 5-9-13 in 32 games in Rochester this year. .4 PPG pace. Adjustment to new ice can come into play there.

Edited February 17, 2014 by Tankalicious

[26CornerBlitz]

So are we worried about Armia at all? He never showed year-to-year improvement with Ässät and hasn't shown much in Rochester this year. At one point I really thought he was on his way to stardom, but he hasn't done much to instill any confidence in his development.

 

Simply not the case. Too early to worry about him adjusting in his first NA year and also being plagued by injury.

[Hoss]

Simply not the case. Too early to worry about him adjusting in his first NA year and also being plagued by injury.

 

See edit to previous post. Absolutely the case. His real improvement in production came in international play, which is why I am not too nervous about him yet. He'll have to show major improvement next year, in my opinion, to keep his stock up.

Edited February 17, 2014 by Tankalicious

[26CornerBlitz]

See edit to previous post. Absolutely the case.

 

Numbers do not tell the entire story. Over reliance on them to judge a prospect's development progress is a mistake. You're also ignoring the fact that he was playing against men in Europe.

Edited February 17, 2014 by 26CornerBlitz

[Hoss]

Numbers do not tell the entire story. Over reliance on them to judge a prospect's development progress is a mistake. You're also ignoring the fact that he was playing against men in Europe.

 

Not ignoring that, at all. I also know that stats don't tell the story. But at some point you have to talk about production. I posed a question. Didn't say anything definite, just provided the numbers to show why I posed the question.

It's not over reliance. It's just looking at the numbers. He shows flashes of his talent with the puck on his stick sometimes in Rochester. Has made a few highlight reel plays in Rochester, but he doesn't seem to really know how to use his skill just yet. At least not on the smaller ice.

 

He's still my favorite prospect we have. I'm really REALLY pulling for him. I just think that he'll need to produce at a much higher clip next year or he'll start falling a bit.

Edited February 17, 2014 by Tankalicious

[dudacek]

I think it is interesting that Armia is older and was drafted in a similar spot in the draft, yet Grigorenko is the one people are ready to write off. His talent is there, but I'm not sure if he gets it. Next year will be pivotal for him.

[Eleven]

I think it is interesting that Armia is older and was drafted in a similar spot in the draft, yet Grigorenko is the one people are ready to write off. His talent is there, but I'm not sure if he gets it. Next year will be pivotal for him.

 

You have a very good point, here. Armia, to me, is starting to look like the next Zagrapan.

[Lanny]

Armia's been a bit banged up, hopefully that has contributed to his mediocre season.

[Derrico]

I think if you were to rerank 2013 this offseason based on the seasons that the prospects have had the top ten would look like this:

 

1. Nathan MacKinnon.

2. Seth Jones

3. Aleksander Barkov

4. Jonathan Drouin

5. Valeri Nichushkin

6. Anthony Mantha

7. Darnell Nurse

8. Sean Monahan

9. Nikita Zadorov

10. Rasmus Ristolainen

 

I didn't think nurse was having a great season.

[inkman]

So are we worried about Armia at all? He never showed year-to-year improvement with Ässät and hasn't shown much in Rochester this year. At one point I really thought he was on his way to stardom, but he hasn't done much to instill any confidence in his development.

 

He had 18-11-29 in 48 games as a 17 year old which is where his stock really blew up. That's a .6 PPG pace.

Had 18-20-38 in 54 games as an 18 year old. That's a .7 PPG pace.

19-14-33 in 47 games last year. Same .7 PPG pace.

 

He's got 5-9-13 in 32 games in Rochester this year. .4 PPG pace. Adjustment to new ice can come into play there.

Interesting you post this on the night he notches 2 assists. Girgensons scored 17 points in 62 games last year. First year pro can be a difficult transition for players, especially is they don't come from Canadian Juniors which seems to be the smoothest transition for players. I'll worry if there is no improvement next year.

[Hoss]

Interesting you post this on the night he notches 2 assists. Girgensons scored 17 points in 62 games last year. First year pro can be a difficult transition for players, especially is they don't come from Canadian Juniors which seems to be the smoothest transition for players. I'll worry if there is no improvement next year.

 

Fair assessment, but Girgensons isn't necesarilly expected to produce at a high clip. Armia is. His strengths show when the puck is on his stick.

[Robviously]

Fair assessment, but Girgensons isn't necesarilly expected to produce at a high clip. Armia is. His strengths show when the puck is on his stick.

Plus Girgensons was 2 years younger during this first season in the AHL, and he made the jump straight from the USHL (not the top pro league in Finland).

 

Armia's underwhelming North American debut is disconcerting.

[TrueBlueGED]

I think it is interesting that Armia is older and was drafted in a similar spot in the draft, yet Grigorenko is the one people are ready to write off. His talent is there, but I'm not sure if he gets it. Next year will be pivotal for him.

 

I think a lot of this has to do with most haven't seen Armia play yet. Grigorenko has played and flopped at the NHL level to this point. Even if Armia is having many of the same problems and is older...seeing is believing and all that jazz.

[inkman]

I think a lot of this has to do with most haven't seen Armia play yet. Grigorenko has played and flopped at the NHL level to this point. Even if Armia is having many of the same problems and is older...seeing is believing and all that jazz.

I also think Grigs will be forever haunted with the label of "being a top 2-3 talent level" in his draft class. As soon as those words were uttered, he was doomed.

[North Buffalo]

Watched McNabb play with the AHL All Stars against a Swedish elite team on NHL network late nite. It seemed like he never came off the ice. That being said, late in the game he seemed to lose interest and had a couple bad turnovers. Didn't like his discipline. Guess it was played last week. But the game was a blowout.

Edited February 17, 2014 by North Buffalo

[Rasmus_]

^{Also to take into consideration with Edmonton a large portion of their defensive prospects took a step back. Regardless of their current standing that is their main area of need. Whether they trade Gagner, Yakupov or whomever.}

[LGR4GM]

If I were Edmonton, I would be looking at my roster for 2 needs. 1) Grit and 2) Defense. They require both and I personally think that if they did draft 1st they would be better served with Ekblad or Bennett than they would with Reinhart. Reinhart strikes me as somewhere between RNH and a Chris Drury type of player. He isn't super gritty or super whimpy.

 

Now if I actually were Edm and I had the 1st overall pick, I would take Bennett. The reason is I think he is a little more gritty than Reinhart. It would also appear he is more of a natural shooter and scorer. Realistically Edm doesn't need another forward who can distribute the puck they need a solid 2 way guy who can get the puck on the wing and score.

[Derrico]

Going to see zadorov this afternoon!! Very pumped to see how he looks live. Taking my 9 month old son and 2 year old nephew, hopefully we make it through the whole game.

[Derrico]

Going to see zadorov this afternoon!! Very pumped to see how he looks live. Taking my 9 month old son and 2 year old nephew, hopefully we make it through the whole game.

 

So zadorov looked like a man amoungst boys out there. He must have played half the game and boy he is a big kid. He scored very early in the second period but I ofcourse missed it while getting snacks for everyone. He jumped into the offensive zone a number of times and really joined the rush at every chance. He has some huge offensive upside IMO. Overall it looks very promising. Also dal colle scored for the gens but he didn't have a great game.

[sabre snipe]

@SabresProspects: Nikita Zadorov 1+1, Brady Austin five-game point streak snapped as London double Oshawa 6-3. Zadorov: 10-13-23 +20 in 25gp. Austin now +42.

 

@SabresProspects: Nick Baptiste gets two more goals plus an assist to lead Sudbury past Mississauga 4-1. Baptiste: 37-36-73, 17 goals in last 18gp. #Sabres

 

Baptiste on fire! Zadorov keeps it up. Exciting stuff ????

[dudacek]

I'm curious to see how Baptiste's numbers stack up against others in his draft year. Remember, this kid is an August birthday, he's actually closer to Reinhart in age than to Risto.

 

EDIT

He's 14th in OHL points. The 1996 birthdays ahead of him are Dal Colle, Bennett, McDavid, and ho-Sang. He's seven points behind max Domi, the only prominent 2013 pick on the list. And he has more goals than any of those guys.

 

You can read too much into points, but I think it is safe to say this kid is outplaying his draft position.

Edited February 17, 2014 by dudacek

[Hoss]

I'm curious to see how Baptiste's numbers stack up against others in his draft year.

 

As far as OHL players drafted last year he has more goals than anybody else at 37. The next closest is Andre Burakovsky with 31. To be fair, Burakovsky actually has a higher goals per game average by .3, though.

 

In assists he is seventh with 36 assists.

 

Overall points he is second behind Max Domi. Domi has 80, he has 73.

 

 

In the entire CHL, he is eighth overall in points over the three leagues. The players ahead of him, by league, with their draft position listed:

QMJHL: Anthony Mantha (20th overall), Anthony Duclair (80th overall), Jonathan Drouin (3rd overall), Emile Poirier (22nd overall).

WHL: Nic Petan (43rd overall), Oliver Bjorkstand (89th overall).

OHL: Max Domi (12th overall).

Edited February 17, 2014 by Tankalicious

[Hoss]

I'm curious to see how Baptiste's numbers stack up against others in his draft year. Remember, this kid is an August birthday, he's actually closer to Reinhart in age than to Risto.

 

EDIT

He's 14th in OHL points. The 1996 birthdays ahead of him are Dal Colle, Bennett, McDavid, and ho-Sang. He's seven points behind max Domi, the only prominent 2013 pick on the list. And he has more goals than any of those guys.

 

You can read too much into points, but I think it is safe to say this kid is outplaying his draft position.

 

I try to ignore points a lot of times in the CHL because almost every year you'll see a guy in the top three in each league that wasn't draft or was draft in a late round. However, when you make a HUGE jump like Baptiste after you've been drafted then it's definitely notable.

[dudacek]

I think if you were to rerank 2013 this offseason based on the seasons that the prospects have had the top ten would look like this:

 

1. Nathan MacKinnon.

2. Seth Jones

3. Aleksander Barkov

4. Jonathan Drouin

5. Valeri Nichushkin

6. Anthony Mantha

7. Darnell Nurse

8. Sean Monahan

9. Nikita Zadorov

10. Rasmus Ristolainen

 

I'm pretty sure this doesn't include guys who have already made it, like MacKinnon, but the scouts think there may at least one guy you missed.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/future-watch-2014-update-alex-wennberg-rockets-near-top-5/

Always look forward to that issue, eager to see if the Sabres are rated as strongly as we would hope.