LastPommerFan Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 9 is a good magic number, it is the minimum required to guarantee a playoff birth. The magic number is affected by Sabres wins and losses by whoever is currently closest. if the Sabres earn 9 points, they are in. 4-0-1 = playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 And there's the problem with magic numbers, that one ignores both Washington and Winnipeg. Here's a scenario: -Ottawa loses out -Buffalo takes 3 points -Washington and Winnipeg win out Washington: 94 points Winnipeg: 90 Buffalo: 89 Ottawa: 88 Leaving both Buffalo and Ottawa on the outside looking in. Magic numbers are ridiculously complicated if you want to try to factor in all teams within reach. Which is why you've gotta use this site, which calculates each team's magic number against each individual competitor: http://zorak.best.vwh.net/nhl/ Sabres are a 9 vs. WAS, 5 vs. WIN, and 4 vs. TB (I'm ignoring CAR and NYI) Ottawa is a 9 vs. BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 And there's the problem with magic numbers, that one ignores both Washington and Winnipeg. Here's a scenario: -Ottawa loses out -Buffalo takes 3 points -Washington and Winnipeg win out Washington: 94 points Winnipeg: 90 Buffalo: 89 Ottawa: 88 Leaving both Buffalo and Ottawa on the outside looking in. Magic numbers are ridiculously complicated if you want to try to factor in all teams within reach. Not really. The Sabres need a combination of 9 points gained by them and lost by the Caps currently to get in. That is the smallest permutation of positive Sabres points required for the Sabres to get in. That the Sabres have 10 points available to them, makes the 9 truly a 'magic #' as they don't need any help to reach that. Failing to get 9 points via themselves and Washington, 13 positive Sabres points via the Otters works also. In your scenario, the Sabres failed to get to 9 vs Washington and failed to get to 5 vs the Jest. Just because they reached 13 vs the Otters doesn't negate 9 having been the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiredsounds Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Fleury left the game and didn't come back in the 3rd. I don't know if that was due to score/performance or injury. If Thiessen starts Friday, I think we win. Fleury didnt play the third because he let in five goals, he said that he feels fine physically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Let's not have any parades yet. The Sabres have a pretty tough last 5 games ahead of them. If they win 3 of their last 5 and Washington wins 4, the Sabres will miss the party. The Sabres need to keep their feet firmly on the gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Fleury didnt play the third because he let in five goals, he said that he feels fine physically. on some nights the puck or your d can be invisible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Let's not have any parades yet. The Sabres have a pretty tough last 5 games ahead of them. If they win 3 of their last 5 and Washington wins 4, the Sabres will miss the party. The Sabres need to keep their feet firmly on the gas. Yep. And with Ehrhoff on the sidelines too...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 And there's the problem with magic numbers, that one ignores both Washington and Winnipeg. Here's a scenario: -Ottawa loses out -Buffalo takes 3 points -Washington and Winnipeg win out Washington: 94 points Winnipeg: 90 Buffalo: 89 Ottawa: 88 Leaving both Buffalo and Ottawa on the outside looking in. Magic numbers are ridiculously complicated if you want to try to factor in all teams within reach. The magic number doesn't ignore anyone. The magic number is the lowest number of the team-specific magic numbers that guarantees an 8th spot for Buffalo. Here are Buffalo's current magic numbers: Boston-------20 New Jersey---16 Florida------15 Ottawa-------13 Washington---9 Winnipeg-----5 Tampa Bay----4 Carolina-----2 NY Islanders-2 So, right now, Washington's magic number happens to be the magic number, because that's the one that currently guarantees an 8th spot. Now, things will change as the season progresses. Washington and Ottawa may switch places, for example. In that case, the magic number would then be whatever our magic number against Ottawa is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude_Verret Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Let's not have any parades yet. The Sabres have a pretty tough last 5 games ahead of them. If they win 3 of their last 5 and Washington wins 4, the Sabres will miss the party. The Sabres need to keep their feet firmly on the gas. Agreed. I'm just happy the Sabres have meaningful playoff like games at this juncture of the season. This is fun. Who would've thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apuszczalowski Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 Fleury left the game and didn't come back in the 3rd. I don't know if that was due to score/performance or injury. If Thiessen starts Friday, I think we win. I heard he was bumped in the head by his own player after one of the goals and thats why he left, Possible concussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I don't even want to think about combos of points or magic numbers. We are in control of 8th place. Just keep a grip on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I heard he was bumped in the head by his own player after one of the goals and thats why he left, Possible concussion? He wasn't 'bumped.' He was run over. The D-man's knee crashed right into his head and spun him around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 The Sabres are the only team with a losing record(8-9-2) against the remaining teams on their schedule. Washington is 12-6-1. Florida is 9-5-2 and Ottawa is 7-6-4. I ain't skeered. The Sabres of Nov., Dec., and Jan. are gone. Losses from that period don't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I think the Sabres, at worst, go 3-2 (losses to Philly/Boston). In that scenario the Caps have to go 4-1....this isn't the Caps team of the last few years, I'd say their chances of going 4-1 are lower than the Sabres going 5-0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 What's the magic number for the Leafs. Oh ya :beer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 What's the magic number for the Leafs. Oh ya :beer: In about 2 months, 45 and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 What's the magic number for the Leafs. Oh ya :beer: Par is 72 on most courses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I don't like that the Caps may play a Florida team late with nothing at stake. Was hoping FLA would stay back in the pack so that Wash would still be a threat for that game. And of course the NYR may not bring their A game either to that last game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico7 Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 What's the magic number for the Leafs. Oh ya :beer: Isn't par on the golf course usually 72? Par is 72 on most courses. ' Damn, beat me too it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dEnnis the Menace Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I don't like that the Caps may play a Florida team late with nothing at stake. Was hoping FLA would stay back in the pack so that Wash would still be a threat for that game. And of course the NYR may not bring their A game either to that last game. Until Pitt and Philly are both out of reach of that top spot, I guarantee that NYR will bring their top game as much as they possibly can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZBills7 Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 One thing to clarify about magic numbers is that "the" magic number for a team to make the playoffs is not permanently tied to one opponent, but is the number that corresponds to whatever opponent is the closest to knocking you out at the time. For example, here are the magic numbers for the Sabres to finish ahead of the key competitors and vice versa: [5 spots going to NYR, BOS, PIT, PHI, NJ] 6th spot - Buffalo 16, Florida 7 7th spot - Buffalo 13, Ottawa 8 8th spot - Buffalo 9, Washington 12 ------------------------------- Buffalo 5, Winnepeg 18 So, you would say the Sabres' magic number is currently 9 because that is what it would take to beat the team that is currently the biggest threat to take the final spot. However, in order to make the playoffs, Buffalo needs to get their magic number to zero against two of the listed teams. It's possible (but unlikely) that the Sabres number vs. the Caps could drop below their number vs. the Jets, in which case the number vs. the Jets becomes "the" magic number. The bottom line is that, considering how far back teams 10-15 are from the pack, the number vs. the Caps' will very likely ultimately be the deciding number. 4 wins for the Sabres would just about seal the deal, while 3 wins and 2 regulation Ls would require the Caps to get 7 out of 10 points. After the past several weeks, and especially after last night, who's betting on the Caps here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 The magic number doesn't ignore anyone. The magic number is the lowest number of the team-specific magic numbers that guarantees an 8th spot for Buffalo. Here are Buffalo's current magic numbers: Boston-------20 New Jersey---16 Florida------15 Ottawa-------13 Washington---9 Winnipeg-----5 Tampa Bay----4 Carolina-----2 NY Islanders-2 So, right now, Washington's magic number happens to be the magic number, because that's the one that currently guarantees an 8th spot. Now, things will change as the season progresses. Washington and Ottawa may switch places, for example. In that case, the magic number would then be whatever our magic number against Ottawa is. So what you're saying is that any combination of points gained by Buffalo and points lost by Washington that sum up to at least 9 guarantee the Sabres make the playoffs. That is not true. Take this scenario: -Buffalo loses out (0 points gained) -Washington loses out (10 points lost) -Winnipeg wins out So Buffalo finishes at 86 points and Washington finishes at 84. But Winnipeg finishes with 90 points, passing Buffalo for the final playoff spot. So the Sabres reach that magic number with Washington, yet they do not make the playoffs. The moral of the story, screw magic numbers and keep winning points. Problem solved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdexchange Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 My head is spinning. Just win Friday! :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 So what you're saying is that any combination of points gained by Buffalo and points lost by Washington that sum up to at least 9 guarantee the Sabres make the playoffs. That is not true. Take this scenario: -Buffalo loses out (0 points gained) -Washington loses out (10 points lost) -Winnipeg wins out So Buffalo finishes at 86 points and Washington finishes at 84. But Winnipeg finishes with 90 points, passing Buffalo for the final playoff spot. So the Sabres reach that magic number with Washington, yet they do not make the playoffs. The moral of the story, screw magic numbers and keep winning points. Problem solved. That's NOT what he's saying. He's saying that 9 Sabres positive points amongst the Sabres and Caps will keep the Sabres ahead of the Caps. The Sabres also have a non-magic number (5) to stay ahead of the Jets. As that number is lower than 9, reasonable people ignore that number. If the Jets go on a tear and the Sabres and Caps both tank, at some point the Sabres magic number would fall to 5 (as the Caps continue to miss points, and the Jets continue to keep available points) and at that point it would be 5 points against the Jets that would be the relevant number. Conversely, if the Caps thrive and the Sens tank, that current value of 13 to beat out the Otters could fall below the 9 (or whatever future smaller value) it takes to beat out the Caps and the Otters revised number could be the magic number. The reason 9 is the magic number is that there is no combination of points available to Sabres relative to any of the teams behind them that is smaller than that. And if the Sabres take the 9 points themselves, there is nothing anybody can do about it. When a team's magic number is equal to or less than the remaining points available to them, they control their own destiny. When it is larger, they need help. They control their own destiny against the Caps, Jets, Bolts, Isles, Canes, Loafs, and Habs. They need help to catch the Otters, Devils, Cats, and Bruins. There is no permutation of points that will allow the Sabres to catch the Rags, Pens, or Phlyers. If the Sabres take 9 points, there is nothing anybody can do to keep them out of the playoffs; it is their magic number. Conversely, if the Caps take 12 points (yes, I know, they can only take 10 themselves) then they can clinch a playoff spot. Because they can only take 10, they need help. I'm not sure why you are being intentionally daft in this matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'm not sure why you are being intentionally daft in this matter. Who said it was intentional? (Kidding, shrader...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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