spndnchz Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Sabres at Canadiens 3-22-11 7:30 PM start Last 10 -- Buffalo 5-3-2; Montreal 7-3-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan_in_raleigh Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Just Win Baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted March 22, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Injury updates: Kaleta- attempted to skate but still has major swelling Hecht - may be back by the weekend, upper body but not his finger again Montador - not today, maybe the weekend LaLime- could practice fully in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assquatch Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 LaLime have another infected splinter in his backside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 As it will be every game down the stretch....This is a BIG game! Not sure we're going to get any help from Florida or Ottawa tonight so let's get the Dubya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R_Dudley Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well here we are, another playoff game. Good news; it is not a single elimination game, it is on the road where we have done well, the team has been playing some good hockey and getting lots of quality scoring chances. The bad news; It's Montreal and Price that has been playing some good hockey of their own, the Sabs best scoring chances haven't been hitting the back of the net. I know this will not happen and may be considered heresy by some but after the way Enroth played in Montreal last time I would actually consider playing him tonight. My fear is that Ryan is a little tense right now and mistakes made could be magnified and a meltdown ensue. Lets hope the anger channeling works or Rip better have extra water bottles and have players hose him down to cool Ryans reactor if he starts overheating. Let's go Buff 'a' lo. I'll take 2 tonight please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnRobertEichel Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 As it will be every game down the stretch....This is a BIG game! Not sure we're going to get any help from Florida or Ottawa tonight so let's get the Dubya. I've given up on the Rangers. As far as I'm concerned, the season is down to the Sabres and the Hurricanes for the 8th seed and the pleasure of facing Philly. According to: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Sabres.html Top 7 teams in the East have a 96.1% or greater chance of making the playoffs, and the bottom 6 teams have a 2% or less chance. Buffalo has a 75.1% chance, and Carolina is at 25.6%. At the risk of being overly dramatic, I will say that the entire season comes down to this game. If these idiots can't get it up for this one after Sunday's debacle, there is no pulse and you can go ahead and stick a fork in them and get ready for the July renovation project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASabreFan Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I've given up on the Rangers. As far as I'm concerned, the season is down to the Sabres and the Hurricanes for the 8th seed and the pleasure of facing Philly. According to: http://www.sportsclu...ast/Sabres.html Top 7 teams in the East have a 96.1% or greater chance of making the playoffs, and the bottom 6 teams have a 2% or less chance. Buffalo has a 75.1% chance, and Carolina is at 25.6%. At the risk of being overly dramatic, I will say that the entire season comes down to this game. If these idiots can't get it up for this one after Sunday's debacle, there is no pulse and you can go ahead and stick a fork in them and get ready for the July renovation project. It's funny how that web site is getting so much mention in Sabre circles. WGR quotes it in their sportscasts. The gap between Buffalo and Carolina seems way too wide, especially considering that the odds are good Carolina gains on Buffalo tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnRobertEichel Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's funny how that web site is getting so much mention in Sabre circles. WGR quotes it in their sportscasts. The gap between Buffalo and Carolina seems way too wide, especially considering that the odds are good Carolina gains on Buffalo tonight. It's simple statistics, my friend, and statistics NEVER lie! :) It's true that Buffalo is only 3 points ahead of Carolina with 20 points each up for grabs, but I think the 3/4 chance seems plausible when you consider that Carolina is not really a good team. Buffalo will most likely try their hardest to choke in these last 10 games, but Carolina hasn't exactly been clutch either in the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's funny how that web site is getting so much mention in Sabre circles. WGR quotes it in their sportscasts. The gap between Buffalo and Carolina seems way too wide, especially considering that the odds are good Carolina gains on Buffalo tonight. It's not valid. Even though I think NY makes it, I would take 25-1 that says they don't make it.....all day. There are sports futures markets where you can trade contracts in various sports teams tied to winning the championship. Granted it isn't tied to making the playoffs, but real money is on the line. Hockey is harder to find liquid markets, but Buffalo really hasn't improved it's chances much on a real basis. I look at it this way....you have to assume Carolina beats us. Sabres probably win tiebreak on wins, so Carolina needs to make up 2 points in those other 9 games. If the Sabres pick up even 10 of those 18 points which is realistic, Carolina needs to get 12 of 18. That's how I would coach that team. Miller is spent. You can tell this because at the end of the year his head looks like the Great Gazoo. He starts losing so much weight that his forhead is 2x the size of his lower face. Check out his recent interviews compared to his file photos. Does Lindy have the nads to start Enroth down the stretch for 1 or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's simple statistics, my friend, and statistics NEVER lie! :) It's true that Buffalo is only 3 points ahead of Carolina with 20 points each up for grabs, but I think the 3/4 chance seems plausible when you consider that Carolina is not really a good team. Buffalo will most likely try their hardest to choke in these last 10 games, but Carolina hasn't exactly been clutch either in the past month. You don't think that a valid argument saying Buffalo is not really a good team can be made? I'm not comfortable with Buffalo's chances tonight. IMO Montreal represents a bad matchup for Buffalo, mostly because of Price, but also because Montreal plays with so much speed. It causes alot of problems for our defence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Miller is spent. You can tell this because at the end of the year his head looks like the Great Gazoo. He starts losing so much weight that his forhead is 2x the size of his lower face. Check out his recent interviews compared to his file photos. Does Lindy have the nads to start Enroth down the stretch for 1 or 2? You would think Tpegs would buy him some steak dinners or something? Anyways, Ottawa is on a 2 game win streak so they could win tonight to help us out.(rangers have won 4btw...) I feel like no matter what happens, that last game against carolina is going to be the ultimate decider and that tonight the sabres should focus on playing strong defensively, hopefully Myers and Sekera sat down and watched some film together and were like "oooo my bad". Every game for the sabres is a must win if they want to get some playoff experience in. If they do play philly I would be exstatic if they make it out of the round. If they lose tonight however and carolina wins, it will be an Epic Fail on the whole teams part not just ryan miller. (again someone give the man a sandwich, aka 14" fully loaded weggies sub) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnRobertEichel Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 You don't think that a valid argument saying Buffalo is not really a good team can be made? I'm not comfortable with Buffalo's chances tonight. IMO Montreal represents a bad matchup for Buffalo, mostly because of Price, but also because Montreal plays with so much speed. It causes alot of problems for our defence. Oh I definitely do. I was simply providing an interpretation of the statistics. Trust me, if any team is capable of blowing a 75% chance of making the playoffs, it's these current Sabres. They are proven choke artists, from Ruff right on down to Miller to Vanek to Connolly to Pominville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bleedblueandgold Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I don't wanna see Miller first into the dressing room like on Sunday when he speed skated ahead of everyone!! A point would be nice, but 2 would be great!! Let's go Sabres!!! Gerbe and Ennis are stepping up, let's see some of the elders do the same....pommenville, grier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunomatic Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Would love to see Enroth tonight but I don't think Ruff has the balls. He'll ride Miller like a 2 bit whor-e down the stretch. Despite the gaffs by the team against Nashville Miller made some incredible saves but I agree with others on the board Millers worn out. GO SABRES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpandean Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's funny how that web site is getting so much mention in Sabre circles. WGR quotes it in their sportscasts. The gap between Buffalo and Carolina seems way too wide, especially considering that the odds are good Carolina gains on Buffalo tonight. It's an interesting site - my kind of site - but it's not perfect. While the "weighted" version adjust for some factors, it doesn't account for a lot of other things. Basically, if a team is higher in the standing and playing at home, then it will have a better than 50/50 chance of winning. However, this does not weight recent games more strongly, nor does it look at historical head-to-head performance, nor does it look at whether a team actual does do better at home (for example, the stats would suggest that the Sabres actually have a much better chance playing the Rangers at MSG than they do playing at HSBC), nor does it look at current length of road trip, nor does it look at days since previous game, nor does it look at if either team traveled in the last 24 hours, etc. The more games that remain, the smaller these differences would likely be, but down the stretch, they will become more important. That said, even the worst match-ups probably wouldn't be all that different than 50/50. I'd say, at best, a game would be 67/33 (roughly 2:1) for win/loss, which is then diluted by the OT/SO wins. Roughly 1/8 of games (12.5%) go to OT. So, worst case scenario (Sabres play a tough opponent; Carolina plays a weak opponent), you are looking at about a 53% chance that the Sabres do as well (39.5% chance of W/W, OL/OL, L/L) or better (3.8% chance of L/OL, OL/W, and 9.7% chance of L/W), plus another 8% chance that Carolina only gains 1 point (OL/L, W/OL). This leaves just a 39% chance that Carolina gains 2, which would still put them 1 point behind with 9 to go. Even "as well as" would increase the Sabres' chances, because there would be one less game. Also, even if Caroline gains one point, the difference in effect as compared to gaining two points is big (using Sports Club Stats' numbers, it's less than a 4% change, as compared to roughly an 11% swing for gaining 2; only 9% if they win in the SO.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamsuperdave Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 This all comes down to 4/3 as long as my beloved Canes dont choke before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rox11 Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 You don't think that a valid argument saying Buffalo is not really a good team can be made? I'm not comfortable with Buffalo's chances tonight. IMO Montreal represents a bad matchup for Buffalo, mostly because of Price, but also because Montreal plays with so much speed. It causes alot of problems for our defence. I expect to get reemed for my optimism ... BUT ... Montreal is out with some top players - D men, too. Buffalo goes HIGH on Price and for all the times he's down in the butterfly, something'll go in. Vanek is LONG overdue - to GET the bounces - and I see Ennis getting #20. As far as Enroth? There's no reason why he can't play at least 2 games before the end. He's done a more than fair job. No Kaleta tonight means - IMO - the anger from Sunday SHOULDN'T result in penalties ... oh wait, they're in Montreal. Go Sabres ... get 2 points based on 60 solid minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think the boys will rebound strongly tonight. As for the recent barrage of Miller criticism: it has to be said that Vanek, whom seemingly everyone wants to be made captain, has 3 goals in his last 18 games as his team scratches and claws to make the playoffs. 2 of those goals were against Ottawa. Pommer has 1 goal in his last 7 games. That goal was in the blowout vs. Atlanta. Stafford has 2 goals in his last 15 games. Thankfully, the smurfs have really stepped up to make up for the latest crunch-time disappearing act from the "top 6." Also, Boyes has continued his amazing knack for getting the tap-in goals at the doorstep. I'm hoping for a good bounceback game from both Myers and Sekera -- I thought Reggie especially was quite shaky vs. Nashville. I want to see Myers playing a hard physical game tonight. I also need the Sabres to light up Price for fantasy league purposes. Go Sabres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm going to try and give it a shot.... Using vegas odds and historical odds this year...and weighing recent odds. Carolina is slightly prefered over Buffalo in Vegas line making. Sabres: @ Montreal 46% FLA 70% NJ 54% @TOR 48% NYR 55% @Was 41% @Car 45% TB 52% Phil 45% @Col 52% This gets you a 4-5-1 record in my opinion.... Carolina: Ott 66% @TB 46% TB 54% @Was 43% MON 53% @Isles 58% Buf 55% Det 52% @Atl 54% Tam 54% More like a 5-3-2 area Rangers: FLA 70% OTT 72% @Bos 43% @Buf 45% @Isles 58% @Phil 38% Bos 48% Atl 64% NJ 54% maybe 5-3-1 area Forget about NY in my opinion.....they are looking at 92-94 pts Carolina and Buffalo are going to be neck and neck according to the odds. I may be off 1-3% on a few of these games.....but not much. Carolina SHOULD do a little better than Buffalo on the way out. It may be as simple as whoever wins the game between those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm going to try and give it a shot.... Using vegas odds and historical odds this year...and weighing recent odds. Carolina is slightly prefered over Buffalo in Vegas line making. Sabres: @ Montreal 46% FLA 70% NJ 54% @TOR 48% NYR 55% @Was 41% @Car 45% TB 52% Phil 45% @Col 52% This gets you a 4-5-1 record in my opinion.... Carolina: Ott 66% @TB 46% TB 54% @Was 43% MON 53% @Isles 58% Buf 55% Det 52% @Atl 54% Tam 54% More like a 5-3-2 area Rangers: FLA 70% OTT 72% @Bos 43% @Buf 45% @Isles 58% @Phil 38% Bos 48% Atl 64% NJ 54% maybe 5-3-1 area Forget about NY in my opinion.....they are looking at 92-94 pts Carolina and Buffalo are going to be neck and neck according to the odds. I may be off 1-3% on a few of these games.....but not much. Carolina SHOULD do a little better than Buffalo on the way out. It may be as simple as whoever wins the game between those two. We are all Tampa Fans this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 hoo-rah Hoo-Rah HOO-RAH YEA! Over the Habs with the swords of a thousand men! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamsuperdave Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 We are all Tampa Fans this month. Canes lose tonight and Tampa wont matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm going to try and give it a shot.... Using vegas odds and historical odds this year...and weighing recent odds. Carolina is slightly prefered over Buffalo in Vegas line making. Sabres: @ Montreal 46% FLA 70% NJ 54% @TOR 48% NYR 55% @Was 41% @Car 45% TB 52% Phil 45% @Col 52% This gets you a 4-5-1 record in my opinion.... Carolina: Ott 66% @TB 46% TB 54% @Was 43% MON 53% @Isles 58% Buf 55% Det 52% @Atl 54% Tam 54% More like a 5-3-2 area Rangers: FLA 70% OTT 72% @Bos 43% @Buf 45% @Isles 58% @Phil 38% Bos 48% Atl 64% NJ 54% maybe 5-3-1 area Carolina being the favourites to beat Detroit surprises me. They could play that game on the moon and I'm picking the Wings all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamsuperdave Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Carolina being the favourites to beat Detroit surprises me. They could play that game on the moon and I'm picking the Wings all day. After seeing what the Wings did to the Pens last night in a matter of 1 period, I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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