Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Carolina being the favourites to beat Detroit surprises me. They could play that game on the moon and I'm picking the Wings all day. I may be off on that. It's easier setting conference matchups because they play often and you have a history to set with. Nashville was a 45% chance @ Buffalo and a 48% chance at home against Det. Carolina was just a 44% chance @Buf So you may be right.....Detroit may be a slight favorite and Carolina is more like 47% or so. But like others say....a few extra factors hit in, but these are pretty good rough estimates 3 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamsuperdave Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Also take into account that the Wings are banged up and may rest some of the vets in those final games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 the sabres have 1.5 games on the canes with 10 to go or for the canes 8.5 games to make up ground. 4 wins for us and 4 losses for them would decide it pretty much so lets do this! 10games - 1.5 - 4 = 5.5 minus then the 4 wins the sabres need and you get 1.5 games as the differential here of wins and losses. Just some ideas about how this can go. If we win tonight and the canes lose than thats +4 for us at this point. I wanna see playoff hockey so Lets Go Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R_Dudley Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I know this will not happen and may be considered heresy by some but after the way Enroth played in Montreal last time I would actually consider playing him tonight. My fear is that Ryan is a little tense right now and mistakes made could be magnified and a meltdown ensue. Lets hope the anger channeling works or Rip better have extra water bottles and have players hose him down to cool Ryans reactor if he starts overheating. Let's go Buff 'a' lo. I'll take 2 tonight please. but Buffalo really hasn't improved it's chances much on a real basis. Miller is spent. You can tell this because at the end of the year his head looks like the Great Gazoo. He starts losing so much weight that his forhead is 2x the size of his lower face. Check out his recent interviews compared to his file photos. Does Lindy have the nads to start Enroth down the stretch for 1 or 2? Would love to see Enroth tonight but I don't think Ruff has the balls. He'll ride Miller like a 2 bit whor-e down the stretch. Despite the gaffs by the team against Nashville Miller made some incredible saves but I agree with others on the board Millers worn out. GO SABRES! Okay to be clear I did not originally nor am I now intending this as a Miller or Sabre bash. He is not the issue, however I thought I have been seeing some crispiness around the edges and it looks like others may as well. Everybody is talking about the players being perfect and making all the right plays. I understand this is a tough situation to be in fighting for a playoff berth down the stretch. Ruffs track record here for goalie substitution leaves a lot to be desired but now more than ever he has to do his part here as well. I really hope he has a pulse where Ryans at and gets it right in these last 10 games with 4 back to backs. As tight as it is it's not just the players mistakes that should get magnified but also coaches that have to make the best game decisions down the stretch to help their team as well. aka, Meyers and Sekera out on the ice to start the OT when they were on the ice for the last 2 NSH goals. Every body needs to accountable. Now go out and win one for the Ruffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROC Sabres Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Carolina being the favourites to beat Detroit surprises me. They could play that game on the moon and I'm picking the Wings all day. I would pick Detroit too but I'm just curious how Carolina would have an advantage if the game was played on the moon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROC Sabres Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 the sabres have 1.5 games on the canes with 10 to go or for the canes 8.5 games to make up ground. 4 wins for us and 4 losses for them would decide it pretty much so lets do this! 10games - 1.5 - 4 = 5.5 minus then the 4 wins the sabres need and you get 1.5 games as the differential here of wins and losses. Just some ideas about how this can go. If we win tonight and the canes lose than thats +4 for us at this point. I wanna see playoff hockey so Lets Go Buffalo! Does this logic include if Canes win on Rape and Pillage day? Just curious since that would be a 4 point game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think the boys will rebound strongly tonight. As for the recent barrage of Miller criticism: it has to be said that Vanek, whom seemingly everyone wants to be made captain, has 3 goals in his last 18 games as his team scratches and claws to make the playoffs. 2 of those goals were against Ottawa. Pommer has 1 goal in his last 7 games. That goal was in the blowout vs. Atlanta. Stafford has 2 goals in his last 15 games. Thankfully, the smurfs have really stepped up to make up for the latest crunch-time disappearing act from the "top 6." Also, Boyes has continued his amazing knack for getting the tap-in goals at the doorstep. I'm hoping for a good bounceback game from both Myers and Sekera -- I thought Reggie especially was quite shaky vs. Nashville. I want to see Myers playing a hard physical game tonight. I also need the Sabres to light up Price for fantasy league purposes. Go Sabres. Yep. As usual, "The Core" isn't producing when the heat is on. Thank you youth and exuberence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresMojo Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well here we are, another playoff game. Good news; it is not a single elimination game, it is on the road where we have done well, the team has been playing some good hockey and getting lots of quality scoring chances. The bad news; It's Montreal and Price that has been playing some good hockey of their own, the Sabs best scoring chances haven't been hitting the back of the net. I know this will not happen and may be considered heresy by some but after the way Enroth played in Montreal last time I would actually consider playing him tonight. My fear is that Ryan is a little tense right now and mistakes made could be magnified and a meltdown ensue. Lets hope the anger channeling works or Rip better have extra water bottles and have players hose him down to cool Ryans reactor if he starts overheating. Let's go Buff 'a' lo. I'll take 2 tonight please. We would have beaten Nashville if we had our scoring chances converted. Soon enough we'll score...hopefully soon enough and we should be good..keyword: SHOULD Two would def. be nice! I've given up on the Rangers. As far as I'm concerned, the season is down to the Sabres and the Hurricanes for the 8th seed and the pleasure of facing Philly. According to: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Sabres.html Top 7 teams in the East have a 96.1% or greater chance of making the playoffs, and the bottom 6 teams have a 2% or less chance. Buffalo has a 75.1% chance, and Carolina is at 25.6%. At the risk of being overly dramatic, I will say that the entire season comes down to this game. If these idiots can't get it up for this one after Sunday's debacle, there is no pulse and you can go ahead and stick a fork in them and get ready for the July renovation project. Why? Despite them being on a four game win streak and ONLY 3pts away, I think we can catch them...if we win tonight and then be within point or two of them come the end of March, I think we can overtake the Rangers if we catch some fire. They are still within reach. It's funny how that web site is getting so much mention in Sabre circles. WGR quotes it in their sportscasts. The gap between Buffalo and Carolina seems way too wide, especially considering that the odds are good Carolina gains on Buffalo tonight. Carolina is in a similar position as us...they need to win. Buffalo needs to win and hopes Carolina loses...simple as that. It's not valid. Even though I think NY makes it, I would take 25-1 that says they don't make it.....all day. There are sports futures markets where you can trade contracts in various sports teams tied to winning the championship. Granted it isn't tied to making the playoffs, but real money is on the line. Hockey is harder to find liquid markets, but Buffalo really hasn't improved it's chances much on a real basis. I look at it this way....you have to assume Carolina beats us. Sabres probably win tiebreak on wins, so Carolina needs to make up 2 points in those other 9 games. If the Sabres pick up even 10 of those 18 points which is realistic, Carolina needs to get 12 of 18. That's how I would coach that team. Miller is spent. You can tell this because at the end of the year his head looks like the Great Gazoo. He starts losing so much weight that his forhead is 2x the size of his lower face. Check out his recent interviews compared to his file photos. Does Lindy have the nads to start Enroth down the stretch for 1 or 2? Will Lindy do it? No...Should he? Yes! Enroth has proven he can win, esp against the Habs. As for the points...Carolina needs to beat us AND gain two more points than us...it's makeable, but difficult for them. Buffalo wins, we're looking more promising for the playoffs. It's an interesting site - my kind of site - but it's not perfect. While the "weighted" version adjust for some factors, it doesn't account for a lot of other things. Basically, if a team is higher in the standing and playing at home, then it will have a better than 50/50 chance of winning. However, this does not weight recent games more strongly, nor does it look at historical head-to-head performance, nor does it look at whether a team actual does do better at home (for example, the stats would suggest that the Sabres actually have a much better chance playing the Rangers at MSG than they do playing at HSBC), nor does it look at current length of road trip, nor does it look at days since previous game, nor does it look at if either team traveled in the last 24 hours, etc. The more games that remain, the smaller these differences would likely be, but down the stretch, they will become more important. That said, even the worst match-ups probably wouldn't be all that different than 50/50. I'd say, at best, a game would be 67/33 (roughly 2:1) for win/loss, which is then diluted by the OT/SO wins. Roughly 1/8 of games (12.5%) go to OT. So, worst case scenario (Sabres play a tough opponent; Carolina plays a weak opponent), you are looking at about a 53% chance that the Sabres do as well (39.5% chance of W/W, OL/OL, L/L) or better (3.8% chance of L/OL, OL/W, and 9.7% chance of L/W), plus another 8% chance that Carolina only gains 1 point (OL/L, W/OL). This leaves just a 39% chance that Carolina gains 2, which would still put them 1 point behind with 9 to go. Even "as well as" would increase the Sabres' chances, because there would be one less game. Also, even if Caroline gains one point, the difference in effect as compared to gaining two points is big (using Sports Club Stats' numbers, it's less than a 4% change, as compared to roughly an 11% swing for gaining 2; only 9% if they win in the SO.) the sabres have 1.5 games on the canes with 10 to go or for the canes 8.5 games to make up ground. 4 wins for us and 4 losses for them would decide it pretty much so lets do this! 10games - 1.5 - 4 = 5.5 minus then the 4 wins the sabres need and you get 1.5 games as the differential here of wins and losses. Just some ideas about how this can go. If we win tonight and the canes lose than thats +4 for us at this point. I wanna see playoff hockey so Lets Go Buffalo! :thumbsup: :clapping: I think the boys will rebound strongly tonight. As for the recent barrage of Miller criticism: it has to be said that Vanek, whom seemingly everyone wants to be made captain, has 3 goals in his last 18 games as his team scratches and claws to make the playoffs. 2 of those goals were against Ottawa. Pommer has 1 goal in his last 7 games. That goal was in the blowout vs. Atlanta. Stafford has 2 goals in his last 15 games. Thankfully, the smurfs have really stepped up to make up for the latest crunch-time disappearing act from the "top 6." Also, Boyes has continued his amazing knack for getting the tap-in goals at the doorstep. I'm hoping for a good bounceback game from both Myers and Sekera -- I thought Reggie especially was quite shaky vs. Nashville. I want to see Myers playing a hard physical game tonight. I also need the Sabres to light up Price for fantasy league purposes. Go Sabres. Myers and Sekera NEED to put some points on the board or else they'll have to be called out. Vanek, Staff and Pommers need to be putting more points up if we expect to get W's It's as simple as that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 If the Sabres can play a bunch of 3 point games down the stretch they will be fine (starting tonight in Montreal). Wins are the key of course but regulation losses will be killer. Just dig deep in these late game battles and at least get the thing to OT. Then take your chances for the 2 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yep. As usual, "The Core" isn't producing when the heat is on. Thank you youth and exuberence. Vanek isn't having a bad month. not lighting the lamp....but certainly producing. http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/3344/gamelog;_ylt=Ak91FikEpwj.zo5Z_RfNANBivLYF And as much as we might have ambivelent feelings about it....Tim is having a decent run of late and has really opened his skating stride. http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/1941/gamelog;_ylt=Ak91FikEpwj.zo5Z_RfNANBivLYF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan_in_raleigh Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 This all comes down to 4/3 as long as my beloved Canes dont choke before then. so u decided to come over and learn about how we rape, pillage and baby eat :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvelo Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I could see Stafford and Vanek folding down the stretch (and getting traded in the offseason...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assquatch Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3613/3373432364_75d6b76ff5.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I would pick Detroit too but I'm just curious how Carolina would have an advantage if the game was played on the moon? Well then you're taking gravity out of the equation which would help the weaker team in theory. But since the Wings are loaded with experience, they'll figure out the "new NHL" quicker. Don't think that makes any sense :blink: and I'm just rambling now awaiting to go home and bust open a nice cold beer for the game. :clapping: :beer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Sabres WILL win tonight by at least 2 goals..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Will Lindy do it? No...Should he? Yes! Enroth has proven he can win, esp against the Habs. I'm not sure his 5 career NHL wins and 1 against the Habs qualifies as "proven he can win, esp against the Habs." Just ask Ron Wilson about using his back up goaltenders. Last week he started Gigure I think against Florida because it was a back to back and Reimer had played like 15 straight. J.S got lit up like a firecracker and Wilson in turn got lit up by the media for not playing his starter at this time of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foligno's Nose Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's an interesting site - my kind of site - but it's not perfect. While the "weighted" version adjust for some factors, it doesn't account for a lot of other things. Basically, if a team is higher in the standing and playing at home, then it will have a better than 50/50 chance of winning. However, this does not weight recent games more strongly, nor does it look at historical head-to-head performance, nor does it look at whether a team actual does do better at home (for example, the stats would suggest that the Sabres actually have a much better chance playing the Rangers at MSG than they do playing at HSBC), nor does it look at current length of road trip, nor does it look at days since previous game, nor does it look at if either team traveled in the last 24 hours, etc. The more games that remain, the smaller these differences would likely be, but down the stretch, they will become more important. That said, even the worst match-ups probably wouldn't be all that different than 50/50. I'd say, at best, a game would be 67/33 (roughly 2:1) for win/loss, which is then diluted by the OT/SO wins. Roughly 1/8 of games (12.5%) go to OT. So, worst case scenario (Sabres play a tough opponent; Carolina plays a weak opponent), you are looking at about a 53% chance that the Sabres do as well (39.5% chance of W/W, OL/OL, L/L) or better (3.8% chance of L/OL, OL/W, and 9.7% chance of L/W), plus another 8% chance that Carolina only gains 1 point (OL/L, W/OL). This leaves just a 39% chance that Carolina gains 2, which would still put them 1 point behind with 9 to go. Even "as well as" would increase the Sabres' chances, because there would be one less game. Also, even if Caroline gains one point, the difference in effect as compared to gaining two points is big (using Sports Club Stats' numbers, it's less than a 4% change, as compared to roughly an 11% swing for gaining 2; only 9% if they win in the SO.) Holy ######! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kishoph Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 They can't keep swapping wins and loses, if that trend keeps up there won't be no playoffs. They're going to have to put together a streak of at least 3 wins to keep in the 8th spot. I think MILLER has been great at times, but he has to be more consistent, he can't be giving up these 3 - 4 goal games and expect to go far. I think it's going to be a tight one tonight and MILLER is going to have to be sharp to get the win. Go Sabres :clapping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OverPowerYou Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 They can't keep swapping wins and loses, if that trend keeps up there won't be no playoffs. They're going to have to put together a streak of at least 3 wins to keep in the 8th spot. I think MILLER has been great at times, but he has to be more consistent, he can't be giving up these 3 - 4 goal games and expect to go far. I think it's going to be a tight one tonight and MILLER is going to have to be sharp to get the win. Go Sabres :clapping: there won't be no playoffs? Sounds like a double negative to me. Just kidding, I know what ya mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assquatch Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 2 points, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assquatch Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I would pick Detroit too but I'm just curious how Carolina would have an advantage if the game was played on the moon? I think the OP was saying the wings would have an advantage but I don't know. It's hard for either a wing or a hurricane to be much good with no atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROC Sabres Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think the OP was saying the wings would have an advantage but I don't know. It's hard for either a wing or a hurricane to be much good with no atmosphere. I know, just giving him sh!t. Although I'm sure if the same refs were at that game as on Sunday night, they wouldn't call icing if the puck ended up hitting Mars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I know, just giving him sh!t. Although I'm sure if the same refs were at that game as on Sunday night, they wouldn't call icing if the puck ended up hitting Mars. Hahhahaha nice. :clapping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron Crotch Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Isn't it obligatory for at least one poster to write "this is a must win game?" I can't remember NOT seeing this statement somewhere in the pre-game thread for quite some time... :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROC Sabres Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Isn't it obligatory for at least one poster to write "this is a must win game?" I can't remember NOT seeing this statement somewhere in the pre-game thread for quite some time... :D Last one I think was a pre-season game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.