Connor Timmins filed for arbitration; Bo Byram did not

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

JBD signed w Det for 875K.  We paid a 2nd to get JBD but wouldn't part with 875K to keep him. Pure genius.  

Maybe re-sign JBD, who played well in his 15 games, and also trade for Timmins. Guess what, you'd have depth behind Kesselring and maybe real competition for jobs.  G-d forbid.   I defer to Adams guaranteed roster spot system because that has worked so well.

That’s what some people concluded at the time because they wanted to believe Cozens and Norris had equal value and that made them feel better about the trade.

Subsequent events have shown Gilbert and JBD were inconsequential filler and the trade was basically Cozens and a 2nd for Norris. Reports out of Vancouver indicate the Sabres added the 2nd to outbid the Canucks who were aggressively targeting Norris. Those same reports also indicate that the 2nd may have not been necessary because the Sens liked Cozens better than any of the individual pieces in the Vancouver offer.

Again, none of this suggests Adams made good decisions in the Norris trade, the Timmons trade, or the JBD qualifier. Just helping you point your wrath in the proper direction.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

That’s what some people concluded at the time because they wanted to believe Cozens and Norris had equal value and that made them feel better about the trade.

Subsequent events have shown Gilbert and JBD were inconsequential filler and the trade was basically Cozens and a 2nd for Norris. Reports out of Vancouver indicate the Sabres added the 2nd to outbid the Canucks who were aggressively targeting Norris. Those same reports also indicate that the 2nd may have not been necessary because the Sens liked Cozens better than any of the individual pieces in the Vancouver offer.

Again, none of this suggests Adams made good decisions in the Norris trade, the Timmons trade, or the JBD qualifier. Just helping you point your wrath in the proper direction.

2nd or no, it doesn't matter.  To not re-sign him for 875K and create some internal competition is frankly stupid.  

[Pimlach]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not sure why it’s easier to believe Adams is too stupid to know the the rules than it is to believe he’s too stupid to judge the difference between Timmins and JBD.

I’m not aware of other examples of him screwing up the rules, but I’ve seen plenty of bad player evaluations. This is right in line with “Clifton is worth $10M over 3 years, and Beck Malenstyn is worth pick #43.

As others have said, few of those who elect arbitration ever get there; they usually select it to force the other side to get serious about negotiations, so they can avoid it.

No doubt he knows the rules.  Lots of doubt on both his player evaluations and his contracts.  

He has recently used a 2nd on Malenstyn, a 2nd to secure Norris and JBD, and a 2nd to dump Clifton (and salary) and get Timmins.  You would think that he knew what he would pay for Timmins and would work that out in advance?   Especially as part of clearing space for a Byram offer sheet.   

So, using your explanation, Timmins is forcing negotiations to get serious and Adams offer was too low.   Again, I would think they would have worked it out in advance.  
 

[GoPuckYourself]

This does not bode well for Terry's Yacht upgrades.

[triumph_communes]

3 hours ago, kas23 said:

If that’s what they believe, then that’s one thing. But, Timmons as a top 4? Really?

Both RHD they signed they want to play up top. Not any PO time, but hold the fort. Timmins made Karlsson look good defensively; there’s precedence 

3 hours ago, kas23 said:

If that’s what they believe, then that’s one thing. But, Timmons as a top 4? Really?

Both RHD they signed they want to play up top. Not any PO time, but hold the fort. Timmins made Karlsson look good defensively; there’s precedence 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

As others have said, few of those who elect arbitration ever get there; they usually select it to force the other side to get serious about negotiations, so they can avoid it.

Tell that to Jeremy Swayman.

[Trettioåtta]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

2nd or no, it doesn't matter.  To not re-sign him for 875K and create some internal competition is frankly stupid.  

Or even trade him for a 7th rounder if he doesn't want to sign here

[shrader]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

As others have said, few of those who elect arbitration ever get there; they usually select it to force the other side to get serious about negotiations, so they can avoid it.

It’s pretty much something along those lines. Both sides are very new to each other. Quite honestly, I think it’s a smart approach for a guy just acquired in a trade. They haven’t had much time to talk yet and this move establishes a very defined timeline and makes it more of a priority for both sides. 
 

It is interesting though to see how much the number of players filing for arbitration has shrunk in the last couple years. I’d imagine that the increasing cap plays a big role in that. More money is available but arbitration results are going to be based off of the older less expensive contracts. 

[HOUSE]

[LGR4GM]

JBD: 144 games, 24pts, -1, 241 blocks, 122 hits, -5.9relcf%, -7.6xgf and he just turned 25

Timmins: 159 games, 46pts, +21, 167 blocks, 137 hits, 2.2relcf%, +16.5xgf and he will be 27 when the season starts

Power: 242 games, 111pts, +8, 319 blocks, 99 hits, 0.5relcf%, -21.4xgf and is 22 turning 23 in November

Kesselring: 156 games, 53pts, +14, 133 blocks, 205 hits, 3.6relcf%, +8.4xgf and is 25

 

They're certainly looking at xgf% and relative cf% when making decisions. Looking at this, I think they believe timmins has more upside than JBD did. Hard to say but none of these guys have deep NHL resumes. Outside of Power, they've basically played 2 seasons worth of games. Will be curious to see Timmins salary. 

And for fun...

Byram: 246 games, 110pts, +26, 313 blocks, 337 hits, -1.7relcf%, -5.9xgf and just turned 24

Bryson: 254 games, 43pts, -38, 276 blocks, 153 hits, -4.7relcf%, -31.6xgf and will be 28 in November

Samuelsson: 212 games, 43pts, +3, 341 blocks, 438 hits, -10.8relcf%, -26xgf and he's 25

Rasmus Dahlin: 509 games, 360pts, -58, 637 blocks, 771 hits, +11.4relcf%, +17.9xgf and is 25

Edited 2 hours ago by LGR4GM

[LabattBlue]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

JBD: 144 games, 24pts, -1, 241 blocks, 122 hits, -5.9relcf%, -7.6xgf and he just turned 25

Timmins: 159 games, 46pts, +21, 167 blocks, 137 hits, 2.2relcf%, +16.5xgf and he will be 27 when the season starts

Power: 242 games, 111pts, +8, 319 blocks, 99 hits, 0.5relcf%, -21.4xgf and is 22 turning 23 in November

Kesselring: 156 games, 53pts, +14, 133 blocks, 205 hits, 3.6relcf%, +8.4xgf and is 25

 

They're certainly looking at xgf% and relative cf% when making decisions. Looking at this, I think they believe timmins has more upside than JBD did. Hard to say but none of these guys have deep NHL resumes. Outside of Power, they've basically played 2 seasons worth of games. Will be curious to see Timmins salary. 

And for fun...

Byram: 246 games, 110pts, +26, 313 blocks, 337 hits, -1.7relcf%, -5.9xgf and just turned 24

What about Bryson?  When you play 40-50 games, he matters…despite some(not you) who say he is a #7 and spends most of his time in the press box so who cares. 

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

What about Bryson?  When you play 40-50 games, he matters…despite some(not you) who say he is a #7 and spends most of his time in the press box so who cares. 

I added him... he's bad. They would be better off dumping him and keeping Docker or probably even bringing up Ryan Johnson 

Bryson and Samuelsson aren't playing above replacement level. Both of them need to be replaced and we can only hope that Novikov, Johnson,  and Komarov develop quicker because Adams won't be rid of his favorites and bring in better players.

Edited 2 hours ago by LGR4GM

[JoeSchmoe]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

JBD: 144 games, 24pts, -1, 241 blocks, 122 hits, -5.9relcf%, -7.6xgf and he just turned 25

Timmins: 159 games, 46pts, +21, 167 blocks, 137 hits, 2.2relcf%, +16.5xgf and he will be 27 when the season starts

Power: 242 games, 111pts, +8, 319 blocks, 99 hits, 0.5relcf%, -21.4xgf and is 22 turning 23 in November

Kesselring: 156 games, 53pts, +14, 133 blocks, 205 hits, 3.6relcf%, +8.4xgf and is 25

 

They're certainly looking at xgf% and relative cf% when making decisions. Looking at this, I think they believe timmins has more upside than JBD did. Hard to say but none of these guys have deep NHL resumes. Outside of Power, they've basically played 2 seasons worth of games. Will be curious to see Timmins salary. 

And for fun...

Byram: 246 games, 110pts, +26, 313 blocks, 337 hits, -1.7relcf%, -5.9xgf and just turned 24

Bryson: 254 games, 43pts, -38, 276 blocks, 153 hits, -4.7relcf%, -31.6xgf and will be 28 in November

Samuelsson: 212 games, 43pts, +3, 341 blocks, 438 hits, -10.8relcf%, -26xgf and he's 25

Rasmus Dahlin: 509 games, 360pts, -58, 637 blocks, 771 hits, +11.4relcf%, +17.9xgf and is 25

With larger sample sizes, I feel like actual GF% is a better metric to measure a player's skill as some of the randomness of shooting (and other intangibles not accurately factored into the model) usually work themselves out over time. 

[LGR4GM]

21 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

With larger sample sizes, I feel like actual GF% is a better metric to measure a player's skill as some of the randomness of shooting (and other intangibles not accurately factored into the model) usually work themselves out over time. 

+/- captures even strength goals for and against

0 would be 50% gf/ga and so positive is above and negative below. 

Edited 1 hour ago by LGR4GM

[JP51]

I guess if we lament and cry wolf everything KA breathes it really loses its proper meaning when he really does behave insanely. That said I would have preferred if we were trading for a player and giving up an extra 2 for them that we would have had an agreement in place. Bottom line i wait and see how this plays out. Maybe KA feels like arbitration will be a better financial deal... who knows... I reserve my KA is a clown show comment for IF he goes thru arbitration AND we dont sign him... then gloves off... until then let's see

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I added him... he's bad. They would be better off dumping him and keeping Docker or probably even bringing up Ryan Johnson.

Agree with all this. Player evaluation (and development) has been questionable at best with this regime of coaches and GM.  How is JBD worse than Bryson?  Plus he is a right handed shot. To your point, Johnson or Novikov could fill that role of #6.  And if, if you somehow extricate the AAV for Mr.Glass, then you might have been able to plugged in an even better partner for Power. But we all know if Adams was to able to move his $4.4m cap number, it’s doubtful they spend it elsewhere.  Something like

Dahlin/Weegar

Power/Kesselring

JBD/ Novikov. 
 

That group would be ~$1m more than what the Sabres ice after Timmins raise and keeping Samuelsson.  I would love to know if Adams actively tried to move JBD and received no offer.  Like every GM said hard pass.  

 

Edited 58 minutes ago by Broken Ankles

[krakensabr56390]

Not to be repetitive, but this is such a non-story it’s hilarious. I mean malynstein applied for arb last year too. It’s a very typical ploy for mid to low level rfa free agents to give them some negotiating power. Has nothing to do with the team and his agent would’ve done this no matter if he was traded or not most likely.

11 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Agree with all this. Player evaluation (and development) has been questionable at best with this regime of coaches and GM.  How is JBD worse than Bryson?  Plus he is a right handed shot. To your point, Johnson or Novikov could fill that role of #6.  And if, if you somehow extricate the AAV for Mr.Glass, then you might have been able to plugged in an even better partner for Power. But we all know if Adams was to able to move his $4.4m cap number, it’s doubtful they spend it elsewhere.  Something like

Dahlin/Weegar

Power/Kesselring

JBD/ Novikov. 
 

That group would be ~$1m more than what the Sabres ice after Timmins raise and keeping Samuelsson.  I would love to know if Adams actively tried to move JBD and received no offer.  Like every GM said hard pass.  

 

The issue is people assigned some type of second round value to JBD. It’s pretty obvious in retrospect that this was just a false thinking because people did not like the idea of adding to cozens to get Norris. 
 

It should’ve been obvious to us when looking at his history that he was waived last year and no one claimed him. Do we really think Buffalo, despite how negative everyone is about their management, would pay a second round draft pick for a player that was on waivers a couple month earlier? 
 

If no one else claimed him when he was free, why would they pay a draft pick for him now? It’s not like he did anything remarkable like Fabbro 

[Broken Ankles]

12 minutes ago, krakensabr56390 said:

Not to be repetitive, but this is such a non-story it’s hilarious. I mean malynstein applied for arb last year too. It’s a very typical ploy for mid to low level rfa free agents to give them some negotiating power. Has nothing to do with the team and his agent would’ve done this no matter if he was traded or not most likely.

The issue is people assigned some type of second round value to JBD. It’s pretty obvious in retrospect that this was just a false thinking because people did not like the idea of adding to cozens to get Norris. 
 

It should’ve been obvious to us when looking at his history that he was waived last year and no one claimed him. Do we really think Buffalo, despite how negative everyone is about their management, would pay a second round draft pick for a player that was on waivers a couple month earlier? 
 

If no one else claimed him when he was free, why would they pay a draft pick for him now? It’s not like he did anything remarkable like Fabbro 

All valid.  And I did not suggest that JBD is worthy of the second round pick.  Maybe closer to the Gilbert return than the second.  But in between. My point is how Adams said he was #8.  Bryson was also waived, and previously not qualified.  Maybe he is a much better teammate than we imagine. But I’ve seen enough to know he’s probably the #7 LD in the system.  A few more random thoughts.  If JBD was waived, why is Adams worried about what an arbitration might yield?  What is the max award he might receive? $1.5m? That’s the ceiling right?  He signed for under $900k.  And probably closer to $1.25m.  My point is, with a lack of right handed D available, I would rather keep him over Bryson.  I can be persuaded that he might not in the top 6, but for an additional $250k, I’d rather him, than Jacob.