The offseason so far - Are the Sabres better?

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I wonder if Lindy is going to roll the clock back to 1999 and deploy:

• Byram Dahlin like he did Zhitnik Smehlik
• Samuelsson Kesselring like Warrener McKee
• Power Timmins like Woolley Shannon

Keep in mind they behave as if they like Timmins and Samuelsson more than we do.

Adams mentioned putting Byram with Dahlin and “you can have a different pair of bigger shutdown guys”.

Adams also talked earlier about wanting a guy for Power who was “safe with a lot of clean puck touches”. To me that sounds a lot more like Timmins than it does Kesselring.

Probably guilty of overthinking things, but it’s something that crossed my mind.

 

I recognize you are speculating. Power at $8.35 million in the sheltered Jason Woolley role, would be...something. 

If this is the sort of combinations and usage that Ruff is looking at, then I think they would be better to package Byram and a forward for a big upgrade upfront, and put Power with Dahlin, and play Zac Jones with Timmins.  Jones is more analogous to Woolley than Power is, I think. Or sign Byram and trade Power in the package for the big forward upgrade. The Rangers tried hard to make Zac Jones and Schneider a thing.  We might be sleeping on him a bit as an option for the 3rd pair.

Of course, Woolley's value was that he was a better PP option than any of the top-4 at the time.  That won't be the case for anyone like Jones in our current lineup.

Byram and Norris for Pettersson and Forbort would be very risky, but I'm not sure if it would be more risky than Norris at $7.95 million + Byram at whatever a long-term extension would cost.

EDIT: I keep forgetting that Pettersson now has a full NMC; so we can scratch him as being an option for the Sabres for the foreseeable future (to the relief of many!). 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Archie Lee

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I recognize you are speculating. Power at $8.35 million in the sheltered Jason Woolley role, would be...something. 

If this is the sort of combinations and usage that Ruff is looking at, then I think they would be better to package Byram and a forward for a big upgrade upfront, and put Power with Dahlin, and play Zac Jones with Timmins.  Jones is more analogous to Woolley than Power is, I think. Or sign Byram and trade Power in the package for the big forward upgrade. The Rangers tried hard to make Zac Jones and Schneider a thing.  We might be sleeping on him a bit as an option for the 3rd pair.

Of course, Woolley's value was that he was a better PP option than any of the top-4 at the time.  That won't be the case for anyone like Jones in our current lineup.

Byram and Norris for Pettersson and Forbort would be very risky, but I'm not sure if it would be more risky than Norris at $7.95 million + Byram at whatever a long-term extension would cost.

EDIT: I keep forgetting that Pettersson now has a full NMC; so we can scratch him as being an option for the Sabres for the foreseeable future (to the relief of many!). 

 

Good stuff.

I wouldn’t expect Power to be playing 17 minutes a night. That set-up,is more of a base.

On Lindy’s good New Jersey team, they kinda ran 5 guys at 20 minutes and the 6th guy at 12.

i think the Sabres would be something like Dahlin 24, Byram Power 22, Kesselring 18, Samuelsson 16 Timmons 14.

[Pimlach]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

I already gave my feelings about the Sabres off-season as a whole - that at best they’ve maintained themselves as a 79-point team.

These are my opinions individually on their moves so far:

Signing Jones: I guess I like it on some Intellectual level - you can’t have too many defencemen - but honestly I don’t care much who the stopgap 8 is. Maybe he still has some untapped upside, but really I don’t see this player ever being more than a tweener. Especially as an offensive puckmover on a team that doesn’t really need any right now.

Signing Lyon: This was a solid move. In a market bereft of goalie talent, adding a guy capable of hot streaks and of being a tandem starter for back-up money felt like a bit of a coup. He’s nothing special, but he’s competition that is capable of actually being competition and better than what I thought would happen.

Re-signing McLeod: I expect some regression from McLeod, but this is a good contract for a good 40-point 3C, especially with the rising cap, and he could give you more. Glad they’ve locked him up for his best years.

Signing Danforth: I like the player and I also like that we added the type of player in terms of both his work ethic on the ice and his underdog mentality off it. He’s a go-to-the-net forechecker on a team that needs more of that. Maybe we’ll get the 4th line right this time.

Trading Lafferty for a late pick: I think he’s a better player than we saw, but he was completely useless last year and clearly wasn’t Ruff’s kinda guy. Just clearing the salary and the roster spot was a win.

Signing Geertsen: guy sounds like a total plug on the ice and I don’t care. Glad that he’s available the next time we need someone with that specific set of skills.

Re-signing Johnson and Kozak: good, no-risk moves as far as I can see. Great value if they make the NHL, no damage if they don’t. 

Not qualifying Bernard-Docker: He’s probably not as good as he played down the stretch and I understand the logic in how Adams explained it. I’d shrug my shoulders if I thought they were going to spend to the cap. But they won’t and you can’t have enough defencemen. Pennywise and pound-foolish.

Re-signing Quinn: The dollar value was a little high for 2 years and I might have pushed for a 1-year prove-it deal, but there’s a chance this could be a home run if Jack plays to his potential. With Cozens and Peterka already out the door, he’s the last best hope for a skilled scorer in the system. He’s got a lot to prove.

Trading Clifton and a 2nd for Conor Timmins: I almost drove off the road when the friend I was with read it to me off his phone. My immediate reaction was “we traded one ***** defenceman for another ***** defenceman and we gave them our 2nd pick? WTF?” I now understand the cap and analytic reasons why this trade was made. I still won’t like it until I see Timmons play significantly better than Clifton did and I see the Sabres put the cap savings to good use. If somebody took Lafferty for free, why not Clifton? Why not use the 2nd to trade for someone better than Timmons? I still hate this trade.

Trading Peterka for Kesselring and Doan: I’ve warmed to this one after an immediate reaction of “that’s it?” Trading skill with the puck for effectiveness without it was my goal for the summer. Using Peterka as the best way to make it impactful was my strategy. I’m willing to gamble on the concept of what we got over the concept of what we gave up because it was the type of trade we needed. It becomes a clear win if they use the reality of the extra cap space, but I’m not confident they will.

What they haven’t done: I wanted them to move skill for will and add a goalie, which they’ve done in some form. I also wanted them to reshape the D-core by moving on from Clifton and Samuelsson and keeping Byram. One yes, one no, one work in progress. Instead, they moved on from Clifton and JBD, kept Mule and got their shutdown RHD at an unexpectedly cheap salary. And finally I wanted them to move some futures for some immediate help. They’re still set up to do exactly that once the Byram situation plays out. It will be incredibly frustrating if they don’t use all the resources at their disposal to make that happen. But it’s what they’ve taught us to expect.

 

 

Good summary.   Generous IMO but very comprehensive. 

Lyon was a good move given what was out there.  We have to hope for a UPL recovery and that UPL/Lyon are a decent 1A/1B.   Otherwise we bring up Levi.  

My view is Peterka was better than Quinn, we lost Peterka and kept Quinn.   Another really good player that we developed is gone and it is hard to be happy about it or about the return.   Right now, unless a top 6 F is obtained, Quinn may end up top 6.  This does not improve the top 6 and it is the exact kind of gamble that Adams makes every off season.  The goal of improving the top 6 will most likely not be met, Adams still has time but so far the top 6 looks worse and a key goal is not met.  

Peterka for Kesselring and Doan is key.   Peterka will play on the top line in Utah and he will score goals.  Kesselring has yet to show he is a shut down defenseman, which was another key goal of the off season.  Our management loves puck movers.   I like Kesselring but where he fits and if he is the guy to help Power is TBD.  Doan is someone I am high on (and I must  disclose that I really liked the way his father played so I have a bias).  

Owen Power is a big key to the season.  It is time for him to grow up and play better defense.  Either he does it on his own or he gets help from Kesselring or Timmins but it has to happen, especially if Byram gets traded. 

Timmins for Clifton plus a 2nd was hard to get excited about.  I am not going to ooohh and aaahh at Adams for managing the potential offer sheet stuff, it is an expectation that a GM knows the rules and can do that simple arithmetic.   We shall see what Timmins gets for a salary and if he is any better than what we have.  

Adding Danforth/Timmins/Doan plus deleting Lafferty should improve the fringes of the roster but this team finished with only 79 points so that alone is not enough and the top line players need to be better.  

It goes without saying that the Sabres will need good health and big years out of Tage, Dahlin, Tuch, Power, and Norris to compete.  

So are they better?   Nothing they did moves the needle very much but if everything aligns then they are slightly better.   How they react to Lindy and his staff will be a telling factor.   Lindy's first season back was a disappointment and no coaching changes seems wrong to me.  

[tom webster]

I believe they are better because;

1) they will be better defensively

2) UPL will have a shorter leash, and

3) They have plenty of offense, especially if they figure the power play out. They were one of the better 5 on 5 teams, albeit with a high shooting percentage. I think Quinn, Benson, Doan, Kulich, McLeod and Danforth will outscore last years numbers of JJP, Quinn, Benson, Kulich, McLeod and Lafferty

 

All that said, I still want Bryan signed and another top 6 forward (Rust?) brought in.

[Dr. Who]

13 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I believe they are better because;

1) they will be better defensively

2) UPL will have a shorter leash, and

3) They have plenty of offense, especially if they figure the power play out. They were one of the better 5 on 5 teams, albeit with a high shooting percentage. I think Quinn, Benson, Doan, Kulich, McLeod and Danforth will outscore last years numbers of JJP, Quinn, Benson, Kulich, McLeod and Lafferty

 

All that said, I still want Bryan signed and another top 6 forward (Rust?) brought in.

Given the lack of change in the assistant coaches, how confident can one be that the anemic power play will at least achieve mediocrity? Shorter leash for UPL is good. Let's hope Lyon or Levi is a valid alternative.

I do think they are marginally better. Resign Byram, bring in Roslovic,  or trade for a better top 6. I'd like to spend futures on the latter, but I am skeptical about that happening.

[tom webster]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

Given the lack of change in the assistant coaches, how confident can one be that the anemic power play will at least achieve mediocrity? Shorter leash for UPL is good. Let's hope Lyon or Levi is a valid alternative.

I do think they are marginally better. Resign Byram, bring in Roslovic,  or trade for a better top 6. I'd like to spend futures on the latter, but I am skeptical about that happening.

Power Plays are almost as unpredictable as goaltending and I’ve always felt coaching in hockey is a little overrated. They really need a playmaking forward more than better coaching but I think they can improve with what they got. 

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Given the lack of change in the assistant coaches, how confident can one be that the anemic power play will at least achieve mediocrity? Shorter leash for UPL is good. Let's hope Lyon or Levi is a valid alternative.

I do think they would arguably be marginally better if they Resign Byram, bring in Roslovic,  or trade for a better top 6. I'd like to spend futures on the latter, but I am skeptical about that happening.

 

Ftfy

[mjd1001]

One more interesting stat to back up my "Quinn was awful last year" argument:

Quinn was a semi-regular on the Power Play last year (about 164 minutes).  

When Quinn was on the ice, the team allowed 6 shorthanded goals (1 every 27.3 minutes, or one every 13-14 powerplays.)

When Quinn wasn't on the PP, the team allowed 2 total SH goals  (2 every 215 minutes, or one every 54 power plays)

Edited 14 minutes ago by mjd1001