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Chad D: expect a Byram trade at or around the draft

dudacek

By dudacek
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ska-T Palmtown Third Liner

ska-T Palmtown

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Great post. Anecdotally I had perceived them to be front runners, seems there’s some statistical backing 

I am fascinated by the Sabres going 33-17 when scoring 3 or more. I know few teams average 3 a game, but the Sabres did it FIFTY times. 

50 games, 218 goals ... so for 61% of the season they averaged just over 4 goals per game.

The other 32 ... 3-29 ... WTF? 47 goals ... or a paltry 1.5 (if you round up) ... 🤮 Scoring 2 or fewer 32 times and having your goalie bail you out (checks notes ...) THRICE!?!?! We can rag on the defense all we want - but ladies and gentlemen of the jury, we need look no further than between the pipes. Nothing further your honor.

 

edit: tagging @stenbaro since they did the original work - I don't want to take credit!

Edited by ska-T Palmtown
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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
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Posted

I like Helenius but no one has more mystery box appeal than a 1st-rounder a year after being picked.

Truism: 

29 of 32 1st-round picks would get taken higher in a redraft one year later, just ask their fans.

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CTJoe Top Prospect

CTJoe

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mr Peabody said:

If Byram gets traded don’t we revert to needing a top 4 D man again?  Unless we get an offer that knocks our socks off there’s no need to trade him.  

Yep - that's what makes it make no sense.  Unless he has and Ekblad type plan in UFA - and why would an Ekblad type come to a place with taxes and only cold weather trees.

 

Turbo44 Top Prospect

Turbo44

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, stenbaro said:

Does anyone have an opinion on why Ryan Johnson isnt talked about playing d with the big club? I thought he played well when he was up

I like him better than Bryson or that other terrible bottom pair guy who’s name I’ve forgotten.

Rasmus_ Second Liner

Rasmus_

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Regardless of our personal feelings on the value and utility of Rust as an asset I think we also need to consider some things about Rust as a player:

He is veteran Stanley Cup winner and a veteran leader and a dog on the ice, capable of giving you more value than his $5M contract. 

And he is probably at this moment a better (not more skilled, better) player than the man we just traded, a man whose departure just left a Rust-sized hole in the lineup.

Such things seem to be important to our management right now.

I actually agree with everything you say here, and if he's 28 I do it in a heartbeat.  The problem is, he's 34.  You want to trade preimum assets for a guy who has predominantly put up numbers along Crosby or Malkin.  He's a good player away from the puck and if you can get him for a 2nd, Rosen, and or other prospects sure.  I like the player, but find the cost ridiculous. 

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mjd1001 First Liner

mjd1001

Posted
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Mr Peabody said:

If Byram gets traded don’t we revert to needing a top 4 D man again?  Unless we get an offer that knocks our socks off there’s no need to trade him.  

I think the logic is that almost anyone playing with Dahlin will do well, he doesn't need a high-end partner.

Connor Clifton, Jokiharju, even Ryan Johnson all had many metrics (Fenwick, Corsi, Shots for, Scoring chances, High danger chances), in the positive territory (above 50%) when paired with Dahlin the last 2 years.   Of course you don't want to put him with a borderline 6/7 Dman all the time, but I think they believe a partner for Dahlin is not someone they need to overspend on.

Other than him having a good cup run with Colorado and having a high pedigree (draft status), is there really anything we have seen from Bryam that shows us he is really good and actually a top pair guy? 

-His metrics WITH Dahlin aren't much better than some of the above mentioned players.

-His metrics/analytics WITHOUT Dahlin on the Sabres are pretty bad (most well below 50%)

-When I watch him play with my own eyes, I don't see someone who is particularly anything better than 'slightly below average' in his own zone.

-Offensively he LOOKS to have skills, but he played a full 82 game season and had a lot of ice time and still got in the single digits in goals.

He has raw talent, and he's young, but i'm not quite sure his overall game is even what you could consider simply above average.

Edited by mjd1001
Turbo44 Top Prospect

Turbo44

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I think the logic is that almost anyone playing with Dahlin will do well, he doesn't need a high-end partner.

Connor Clifton, Jokiharju, even Ryan Johnson all had many metrics (Fenwick, Corsi, Shots for, Scoring chances, High danger chances), in the positive territory (above 50%) when paired with Dahlin the last 2 years.   Of course you don't want to put him with a borderline 6/7 Dman all the time, but I think they believe a partner for Dahlin is not someone they need to overspend on.

You also don’t want to underspend on a guy who by playing with Dahlin will play 20 minutes a night

Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, stenbaro said:

Does anyone have an opinion on why Ryan Johnson isnt talked about playing d with the big club? I thought he played well when he was up

He certainly deserves more conversation.  I'm not sure he'll crack the lineup, but he should be discussed more.  Good call.  And thanks for getting rid of the banana.

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Jorcus Fourth Liner

Jorcus

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I think the logic is that almost anyone playing with Dahlin will do well, he doesn't need a high-end partner.

Connor Clifton, Jokiharju, even Ryan Johnson all had many metrics (Fenwick, Corsi, Shots for, Scoring chances, High danger chances), in the positive territory (above 50%) when paired with Dahlin the last 2 years.   Of course you don't want to put him with a borderline 6/7 Dman all the time, but I think they believe a partner for Dahlin is not someone they need to overspend on.

Other than him having a good cup run with Colorado and having a high pedigree (draft status), is there really anything we have seen from Bryam that shows us he is really good and actually a top pair guy? 

-His metrics WITH Dahlin aren't much better than some of the above mentioned players.

-His metrics/analytics WITHOUT Dahlin on the Sabres are pretty bad (most well below 50%)

-When I watch him play with my own eyes, I don't see someone who is particularly anything better than 'slightly below average' in his own zone.

-Offensively he LOOKS to have skills, but he played a full 82 game season and had a lot of ice time and still got in the single digits in goals.

He has raw talent, and he's young, but i'm not quite sure his overall game is even what you could consider simply above average.

 

On the Byram points. 

The only argument against the metrics point I have is that it is a big challenge to play with Byrson and Clifton or even Power and help carry them. Maybe the metrics are right but there a lot of permutations that I question about using them to write a player off.

In the D zone he is better at defending the rush, (makes good use of his speed to get back and drive attackers wide) than playing in a box and pushing out or blocking shots. A lot of times the results of defending around the net depend on the communication with the other players on the ice. The Sabres in general had a problem with this. It could be a Lindy thing but not knowing what the other player is going to do will have you make mistakes or make you cover for theirs. If nothing else Byram seems more than willing to work on his flaws and certainly has the skill set to improve. 

In the O zone I don't think he is a better pure shooter than Power or Dahlin but I might be the best passer on the team, especially on the breakouts. Playing next to Dahlin he was expected to be more stay at home guy which limits his chances to score. He did not rotate down behind the net very often. He also had limited power play time limiting his scoring.

At 246 games he is right in the zone to take a big step forward. Where ever he ends up playing I am pretty confident he will be very good. 

 

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JP51 Fourth Liner

JP51

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, stenbaro said:

Does anyone have an opinion on why Ryan Johnson isnt talked about playing d with the big club? I thought he played well when he was up

Always liked the kid not sure what the coaches saw to make him part time I am sure it was something 

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

So what's more likely with Byrum at this point? A trade or a bridge deal?

Certainly isn't ppl spelling his name correctly. 

Edited by LGR4GM
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