What has to happen to turn the ship around this season?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Let's say for argument's sake that the Sabres have it in them to make a run for a playoff spot.  With 52 games remaining the Sabres will need to earn at least 68 points to get to 95 points and a possible playoff spot.  That is a 32-16-4 record the rest of the way.

The 2010-11 Sabres were 12-14-4 after 30 games and finished 43-29-10 for 96 points.  Their record for the last 52 games was 31-15-6.  So obviously it's possible to make such a run.

What has to happen for the Sabres to turn it around?

1) Levi and UPL must be consistently good to excellent every night.  While unlikely, especially given our flat starts and lousy D so far this season, it's not out of the realm of possibility.  Levi has had a .913 or better save % in his last 3 starts.  UPL, despite 2 awful starts vs STL and Colorado (he received zero help in this game), has had a .923 save % or better in 6 of his last 8 appearances.

2) The forward group needs to get healthy and start scoring.  Skinner hitting the IR doesn't help this cause, but Tuch and TNT are back in the lineup and Quinn and Greenway seem very near to returning.  Adding them should allow DG to play 4 full lines for the first time this season.  

It might look something like this

Benson TNT Tuch

JJP Mitts Quinn

Greenway Cozens VO

Robinson Krebs KO

3) The defense must be better.  They need to cut down on mistakes, simplify their games, and just clear the zone.  The quicker they clear the zone the quicker we transition to offense.  Ryan Johnson should be playing nightly.  Whoever isn't carrying their weight needs to sit. 

4) KA needs to make a few bold moves to reinvigorate the team.   The moves could be firing a coach (or 2).  Trading out someone who needs a change of scenery (Joki or VO) and bringing in a least one center to at worst replace Krebs or who will push Cozens to the wing if he doesn't find his game.  We also still need to find a top 4 D to pair with Power.  Joki was on my trade list this summer and nothing this season has changed my opinion.  

5) Last but not least is fixing the PP.  Maybe it rights itself with the return of guys like Quinn, TNT, and Tuch.  However, I doubt it.  I'll say this, if they don't fix the PP, the first 4 steps probably won't be enough to get this team to the playoffs.  On average we'll need to score at least once a game on the PP for this run to happen.

Edited December 15, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Pimlach]

Yours is a big list and there are interdependencies for every item in it.  

Does this team have the players, the coaching, and the heart to play .570 hockey the rest of the way?  

Players - probably not

Coaching - No 

Heart - No 

It will take a fortunate coaching change, on the scale of when Berube took over the Blues, for this group to even seriously compete for a wildcard.  

Will  TP want to pay DG not to coach?   No

Will Adams have the gumption to hire a strong and experienced NHL coach right now?   No 

[buffaloboy]

Well thought out post and I like the optimism but 4 is the one that won’t happen Atleast not in enough time to save this season. For us to get to the playoffs I think we need Atleast two 5-6 game winning streaks and we haven’t even had a three gamer yet so I’m really struggling to see that happening but I too am a numbers guy and like the math you laid out to get us to the promised land. Go Sabres.

Edited December 15, 2023 by buffaloboy

[Scottysabres]

I'll just leave this here and see myself to the door........

Oh, and post script......

Does anyone have a bad attitude, nasty as hell, live rooster? Asking for Cozens......

Edited December 15, 2023 by Scottysabres

[mjd1001]

1.) Above average goaltending.  Doesn't have to be great, but all goalies have to play close to thier best.

2.) Injuries have to stop. This team needs to be close to full strength.

3.) Tage has to start scoring at the rate he did the last 2 years.

4.)  Whatever demon is possessing Cozens needs to be exorcised.  OR, if this is what Cozens is...then we need the deal he made with the devil that turned him into a 30+ goal scorer to be extended to this season.

Thats it. Not that complicated. Better goaltending than last year, a fully healthy roster and everyone who has taken a step back to get back to where they were last year. If that were to start now, they would still have a chance. (that is basically what they had last year and got to the mid 90's in points with below average goaltending).

Do I think we are going to get all that? of course not.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

1.) Above average goaltending.  Doesn't have to be great, but all goalies have to play close to thier best.

2.) Injuries have to stop. This team needs to be close to full strength.

3.) Tage has to start scoring at the rate he did the last 2 years.

4.)  Whatever demon is possessing Cozens needs to be exorcised.  OR, if this is what Cozens is...then we need the deal he made with the devil that turned him into a 30+ goal scorer to be extended to this season.

Thats it. Not that complicated. Better goaltending than last year, a fully healthy roster and everyone who has taken a step back to get back to where they were last year. If that were to start now, they would still have a chance. (that is basically what they had last year and got to the mid 90's in points with below average goaltending).

Do I think we are going to get all that? of course not.

Would add they also need the PP to actually become useful.  They did try changing up the scheme last game and they're changing up personnel this game, so theres a slight hope.  But just have no faith that the coaches actually understand WHY they're making the changes they're making.  Or, at a minimum, if THEY understand why don't expect they understand why well enough to explain it to the team.

And the last thing they need to do is maintain gaps on the transition back into the zone to theoretically prevent some zone entries into their end and then play structured in their own end in all phases of the game.  We're getting told that they're getting taught the new system.  Should it actually start clicking with them that would help them play at the level they need to down the stretch to keep this from being a lost season.

Not giving up on them, but it is shocking that they have but a single 2 game winning streak through 30 games.

[pi2000]

The players have to decide that losing is unacceptable.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

The players have to decide that losing is unacceptable.

Which is why KO needs to go.  

[DarthEbriate]

It’s possible, however unlikely, they might find a weakness in the opposition and exploit it. 

Really, this team would need a 15-5 run to get back into the running, and then maintain a playoff pace the rest of the way.

The only way they’re getting this type of run is with some sort of galvanizing event. Capital E Event. Tage goes off (back-to-back hat tricks), they wear the goatheads each game, Quinn returns and is a point-per-game and ignites the power play to a 23%+ for the rest of the season, Levi puts up back-to-back shutouts followed by .930sv% hockey the rest of the way, or they get some sort of team-uniting line brawl where they win some fights and have each others’ back and realize they don’t have to take bantha fodder from anybody. Or they fire the coaches. 

[mjd1001]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Would add they also need the PP to actually become useful.  They did try changing up the scheme last game and they're changing up personnel this game, so theres a slight hope.  But just have no faith that the coaches actually understand WHY they're making the changes they're making.  Or, at a minimum, if THEY understand why don't expect they understand why well enough to explain it to the team.

And the last thing they need to do is maintain gaps on the transition back into the zone to theoretically prevent some zone entries into their end and then play structured in their own end in all phases of the game.  We're getting told that they're getting taught the new system.  Should it actually start clicking with them that would help them play at the level they need to down the stretch to keep this from being a lost season.

Not giving up on them, but it is shocking that they have but a single 2 game winning streak through 30 games.

I agree on the PP, but if Tage and Cozens would simply pick up the pace, there is the difference in PP between this year and last year.

Thompson at this point last year had 11 PP goals, and 24 goals overall.  Cozens at this point last year had 11 overall goals.  This year, Thompson is at 11 overall with only 1 on the PP, and Cozens is at 4.  You "fix" Thompson and Cozens simply getting them to match last years production, and you have a top 10 PP in the league at this point.

I didn't realize it was this bad, but how many players on the Sabres have more than 1 PP goal this entire season?  Skinner, and Dahline (who has 2). Thats it.

Edited December 15, 2023 by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Really, this team would need a 15-5 run to get back into the running, and then maintain a playoff pace the rest of the way.

The bad part is....IF they did go 15-5 in the next 20 games, they would be at 57 points through 50 games....or 57% of available points. That STILL would likely have them on the outside looking up at the playoffs...8th best team in the conference now is Detroit with 58.6% of available points.

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What has to happen for the Sabres to turn [the ship] around?

Tagebacca, lock in the auxiliary power. 
Lock in the auxiliary power!

Just now, mjd1001 said:

The bad part is....IF they did go 15-5 in the next 20 games, they would be at 57 points through 50 games....or 57% of available points. That STILL would likely have them on the outside looking up at the playoffs...8th best team in the conference now is Detroit with 58.6% of available points.

Exactly. That’s just to get back into contention. Then, they need to sustain  6-4 every 10 thereafter. 

[French Collection]

46 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

The players have to decide that losing is unacceptable.

Right on, hating to lose is not the same as wanting to win. Ratcheting up the compete level in DG lingo.

Hate stirs the urge to win battles. Hating other teams is OK, the animosity only needs to be on the ice.

46 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which is why KO needs to go.  

At the very least the players need to return their participation trophies to him.

[#freejame]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

The players have to decide that losing is unacceptable.

This is what I don’t understand. I know you played a lot of hockey. These are all obviously hockey player. Why do they refuse to play like a hockey team? They must know what’s not working. They must know they aren’t as strong. The only logical answer to me is they are scared. That’s not a knock, I’ve been scared plenty of times playing hockey. But you either play through it and go to the tough spots or you refuse to adapt. Our players have refused to adapt for years. It’s unhockeylike. One of the few things that makes sense is fear. They play like a team that knows they’re outsized and weaker every night. They don’t want to finish checks because someone else might finish a check on them. Losing is more acceptable than winning through punishment. 

[Marvin]

They need their version of St. Louis's "Gloria" moment.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, #freejame said:

This is what I don’t understand. I know you played a lot of hockey. These are all obviously hockey player. Why do they refuse to play like a hockey team? They must know what’s not working. They must know they aren’t as strong. The only logical answer to me is they are scared. That’s not a knock, I’ve been scared plenty of times playing hockey. But you either play through it and go to the tough spots or you refuse to adapt. Our players have refused to adapt for years. It’s unhockeylike. One of the few things that makes sense is fear. They play like a team that knows they’re outsized and weaker every night. They don’t want to finish checks because someone else might finish a check on them. Losing is more acceptable than winning through punishment. 

The Sabres don’t “play the right way” because the Sabres are only one side of the equation: the other team wants to play THEIR game, too.

Zero sum game.

It’s not an issue of will. The issue has been the same for 13 years and KA is the latest to take a big ol’ swing and a miss by theorizing cUltUre was the issue and turning the Sabres into a country club. 

It’s talent. It’s our collection of talent. (Talent includes ability to fight along the boards for pucks, sick snipes, all of it. I’m talking all around ability). We have less overall ability top down team wide and have for over a decade. We didn’t have cancerous players, we had players that became cancerous because we slotted Marcus Johansson at 2C.

It’s a GM issue. 

[Goldseatsaud]

Leadership

[Thorny]

Better question is probably “when”. There’s almost certainly a late season stretch with our name on it where we rack up a bunch of wins against teams that don’t take us seriously. But that will only be a mirage: key is for ship to be righted while we actually have a realistic chance of making the playoffs 

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Let's say for argument's sake that the Sabres have it in them to make a run for a playoff spot. 

What has to happen for the Sabres to turn it around?

Have you ever seen "Angels in the Outfield"? 

 

[Weave]

I have never been so unsure of what needs to happen to turn this team around.

In years past you could point to a defensive center, or a #2 PP QB, or a #2 goalie.  This team is such an enigma, that I am unsure of what the real need is.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Weave said:

I have never been so unsure of what needs to happen to turn this team around.

In years past you could point to a defensive center, or a #2 PP QB, or a #2 goalie.  This team is such an enigma, that I am unsure of what the real need is.

Gotta have heart. Miles and miles of heart.

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Have you ever seen "Angels in the Outfield"? 

 

I thought it was going to be Gene Hackman when I clicked into the thread 

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Gotta have heart. Miles and miles of heart.

Ah.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I thought it was going to be Gene Hackman when I clicked into the thread 

Ah.

Well, I wouldn't want to disappoint you. 

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I thought it was going to be Gene Hackman when I clicked into the thread 

Ah.

 

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Well, I wouldn't want to disappoint you. 

There was never much hope...

[Thorny]

48 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

There was never much hope...

But we have the White Liger - that has to count for something