Jost, Krebs and the Bottom 6 Problem!

[Pimlach]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The issue with that is how do you integrate 4 rookies forwards (a 25% forward turnover) on a team expected to compete for a Cup? Do you create a 4th line of rookies? Do you sprinkle one on each of the 4 lines?  If management views these guys as top 9 players which returning vets do you drop to the 4th line?  

I’m not saying this won’t happen, but that would take the NHL’s youngest team and make it significantly younger.  

I can see KA bringing in 2 of the kids.  The two will be Kulich and Rosen.  IMHO they will be the two most ready to play in the NHL.  

I know Savoie and Benson might have the most upside.  However, I am still of the opinion that both return to Juniors at some point this season and both start next year in Rochester.  This is likely a minority point of view, especially given how the Sabres have handled both players recently.  I think KA will want to delay part of the next waves arrival and allow these two to get stronger.  

 

The answer is you don’t bring up 4 rookie forwards and give them the 4th line or distribute them on all the lines.  They are not entitled to play in the NHL.   When one of them beats out a player higher on the depth chart then that one move up.  

[Pimlach]

Just now, Doohickie said:

Makar said that the fall was his fault in the postgame interview.

It was his fault.  I dont think he heard or felt Kyle coming, he was skating back in a routine manor and may have lost his edge once he felt the pressure of Kyle on him.  He could have been blasted, he is lucky Kyle is a good guy.   There was a ref right there, and he saw nothing to call.   The Avs were upset but there was nothing in the way of a penalty.  
 

McKinnon managed to get 14 minutes. 

[JustOneParade]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is a very fair question.  It may depend on how DG plans to deploy the 4th line. Is it going to be a traditional physical checking line or just another speedy scoring line. 

With Z, KO, VO and Jost all UFAs after this season (Mitts & Krebs are RFAs), KA will have a great deal of leeway to decide how many of these kids really get a shot next year.  That could easily work in Krebs' favor.  

8 of the top 9 for next year are probably written in stone (TNT, Skinner, Tuch, Quinn, Cozens, JJP, Mitts and Greenway).  That doesn't leave much room for more than one of the top 4 kids (Savoie, Benson, Kulich and Rosen) or Krebs.

This is really the overarching question, isn't it? It will provide clarity to this discussion. If its a scoring line then there's lots of room for the kids along with some issues already mentioned. If its a defensive/checking line, then there won't be many roster spots available for the prospects ill-suited for that role. And I'm getting an AHL.TV subscription because ROC may have one of the all-time great AHL teams with all those high end prospects. 

[inkman]

29 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Girgs was in a fight already this season, almost two.  Okposo had half the Avs after him for the “push” to Mekar who basically lost an edge due to his own carelessness.  

I like our guys.  I just think we could add to it.  

[Doohickie]

58 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

It was his fault.  I dont think he heard or felt Kyle coming, he was skating back in a routine manor and may have lost his edge once he felt the pressure of Kyle on him.  He could have been blasted, he is lucky Kyle is a good guy.   There was a ref right there, and he saw nothing to call.   The Avs were upset but there was nothing in the way of a penalty.  

That is pretty much what Makar said in the postgame.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

The answer is you don’t bring up 4 rookie forwards and give them the 4th line or distribute them on all the lines.  They are not entitled to play in the NHL.   When one of them beats out a player higher on the depth chart then that one move up.  

While I agree generally, KA’s approach has been to open up NHL roster spots for kids when he thinks they are ready to contribute.  While I agree it’s unlikely that 4 rookies make the team next season, KA has 4 UFA forwards and 2 RFA forwards to make decisions on at season’s end. We already know that VO is moving on and it’s also reasonable to think that KO also retires at season’s end.  That’s two roster forwards KA will likely replace with internal candidates.  

While the kids aren’t entitled to play in the NHL cap issues often trump other considerations.

[French Collection]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While the kids aren’t entitled to play in the NHL cap issues often trump other considerations.

Mitts’ contract may change the make up of the team. People were saying 4x$5M before the season but it will be more if he keeps his play up to the current level.

Paying guys like Girgs, KO and Jost good money might be tough to manage if Casey pushes for Cozens $$.

Krebs under team control and ELC guys may become a thing on the 4th line.

[Drag0nDan]

19 hours ago, SDS said:

You’re not gonna get any argument with me. Krebs has broken out of his turnover machine habits, but he has appeared to a level off as a JAG.

He may be a better player someday, but that may show on his sixth NHL team.

He doesn't shoot well or often enough to be anywhere near a teams top 6.  He brings some juice and forecheck/backcheck that you want to see in a bottom 6 forward, but the lack of any scoring touch is going to hurt him even if he has some playmaking chops.  Playmaking chops don't go that far when the shooters are guys like Girgs and Okposo.  

[SabresBaltimore]

I think if Krebs wants to remain in Buffalo, he needs to turn himself into a shutdown center. DG has been playing him in key defensive zone face offs already. 

[Crusader1969]

14 hours ago, Curt said:

I’m not talking about the penalty kill though……..

2005 4C was Gaustad.  The wingers were not that consistent.  None of the lines were particularly consistent.  Ruff shifted guys a lot.  They also had Drury who would do a lot of that heavy lifting defensively.

Could cozens not fulfil the Drury role in due time? 

[Weave]

41 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Could cozens not fulfil the Drury role in due time? 

Although Cozens was touted as having a solid 200’ game when drafted, has he really shown that since he’s made the show?  I’m starting to think he’s better suited to a typical 2C role than to the 2C role Drury and ROR epitomized.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Although Cozens was touted as having a solid 200’ game when drafted, has he really shown that since he’s made the show?  I’m starting to think he’s better suited to a typical 2C role than to the 2C role Drury and ROR epitomized.

Overall, not really, but he's still only 22.  In 2-3 years, with Quinn and Benson as his W's, that could be a very good 2 way line.

And he has shown it in spurts.  His 1st game against McDavid standing out as the prime example of it.  

It's hard to say how much of his getting a bit lost in his own end and over chasing the puck was due to him not being able to play a defensive game and how much of it was his coach wanting him to be agressive at both ends of the ice.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, French Collection said:

Mitts’ contract may change the make up of the team. People were saying 4x$5M before the season but it will be more if he keeps his play up to the current level.

Paying guys like Girgs, KO and Jost good money might be tough to manage if Casey pushes for Cozens $$.

Krebs under team control and ELC guys may become a thing on the 4th line.

Cozens money for Mitts will make Mitts unaffordable for the long term cap situation but it might happen. 

So yes, the 4th line will have to be CHEAP like most teams. Most teams go for tough guys partly because they play for less. It at least gives your bottom line a purpose and identity. Krebs imo fits between 2 tough guys or grit guys because of his style and attitude, but he'd have to be signed cheap as well. Ultimately, the 4th line likely becomes a revolving door and isn't a huge issue. 

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

Could cozens not fulfil the Drury role in due time? 

Maybe, but he doesn’t right now.

[Curt]

25 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Cozens money for Mitts will make Mitts unaffordable for the long term cap situation but it might happen. 

So yes, the 4th line will have to be CHEAP like most teams. Most teams go for tough guys partly because they play for less. It at least gives your bottom line a purpose and identity. Krebs imo fits between 2 tough guys or grit guys because of his style and attitude, but he'd have to be signed cheap as well. Ultimately, the 4th line likely becomes a revolving door and isn't a huge issue. 

It’s not true.  The money could still work long term.

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Overall, not really, but he's still only 22.  In 2-3 years, with Quinn and Benson as his W's, that could be a very good 2 way line.

And he has shown it in spurts.  His 1st game against McDavid standing out as the prime example of it.  

It's hard to say how much of his getting a bit lost in his own end and over chasing the puck was due to him not being able to play a defensive game and how much of it was his coach wanting him to be agressive at both ends of the ice.

you mean Quinn and JJP as his wingers I think 😜

[Taro T]

31 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

you mean Quinn and JJP as his wingers I think 😜

Peterka may become a good player in his own end, but both Quinn and Benson were known for that prior to getting to the NHL.  JJ, not so much.

And, yeah, until Frick and Frack aren't a thing, should probably expect them to continue to be joined at the hip when both are healthy.  But expect Quinn-Cozens-Benson could be a very good line in its own end once they are all 'all growed up.'

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

It’s not true.  The money could still work long term.

That's debatable and probably a whole other topic. They just put a lot of money into their D, they have Skinner, Cozens, Thompson costing a fair amount together. There's good value in Cozens and Thompson if they put up top line numbers but that total is still a fair amount, so if you now give Mitts Cozens money (and term I would assume goes with that) you're going to be in trouble when Quinn and Peterka and Levi or whoever want/earn new deals. So yes, you can pay Mitts that for a few years but that window will be really small on a team that hasn't even started winning yet. The 4th line money will have to be minimal. 

[Porous Five Hole]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

Peterka may become a good player in his own end, but both Quinn and Benson were known for that prior to getting to the NHL.  JJ, not so much.

And, yeah, until Frick and Frack aren't a thing, should probably expect them to continue to be joined at the hip when both are healthy.  But expect Quinn-Cozens-Benson could be a very good line in its own end once they are all 'all growed up.'

I’m not saying JJP has developed into some two-way stud, but he’s been much better in his own end this year (+1 after nine games on a team that is even in GF/GA). 

[Curt]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's debatable and probably a whole other topic. They just put a lot of money into their D, they have Skinner, Cozens, Thompson costing a fair amount together. There's good value in Cozens and Thompson if they put up top line numbers but that total is still a fair amount, so if you now give Mitts Cozens money (and term I would assume goes with that) you're going to be in trouble when Quinn and Peterka and Levi or whoever want/earn new deals. So yes, you can pay Mitts that for a few years but that window will be really small on a team that hasn't even started winning yet. The 4th line money will have to be minimal. 

1) The cap margins will be small, because they eventually are for any decent team.

2) By the time Quinn, Peterka, Levi, or anyone younger than that really need to be paid, not only will the cap be more than $10M higher, but Skinner will also be off the books.  It will be possible to have like 4-5 other players on $6M+ long term contracts, in addition to Thompson, Cozens, Dahlin, and Power.

3) Yup, the 4th line money will probably have to be minimal, but that’s true of pretty much any team that’s been decent for a while.

It’s a choice, just like anything else.  If you give Mitts a $7M 6 yr contract, yeah, maybe (MAYBE) that forces you to trade someone 4-5 years from now, but if Mitts is worth it, then I just don’t care.  Any team that has too many good players comes to points like that.  If the Sabres get good, that’s an inevitability.

What’s the alternative?  Trade away your good players before they need to get paid because of a hypothetical cap crunch 4-5 years down the road?  

 

[PerreaultForever]

12 hours ago, Curt said:

1) The cap margins will be small, because they eventually are for any decent team.

2) By the time Quinn, Peterka, Levi, or anyone younger than that really need to be paid, not only will the cap be more than $10M higher, but Skinner will also be off the books.  It will be possible to have like 4-5 other players on $6M+ long term contracts, in addition to Thompson, Cozens, Dahlin, and Power.

3) Yup, the 4th line money will probably have to be minimal, but that’s true of pretty much any team that’s been decent for a while.

It’s a choice, just like anything else.  If you give Mitts a $7M 6 yr contract, yeah, maybe (MAYBE) that forces you to trade someone 4-5 years from now, but if Mitts is worth it, then I just don’t care.  Any team that has too many good players comes to points like that.  If the Sabres get good, that’s an inevitability.

What’s the alternative?  Trade away your good players before they need to get paid because of a hypothetical cap crunch 4-5 years down the road?  

 

That's not wrong, but I guess my problem is ending up with a tight cap number BEFORE we've even gotten any good. What then? There's an assumption we will be a "decent team" and I'm still waiting to see that. We're right where we always are right now, near bottom. I'd suggest the mix of "star scorers" (for lack of a better description) and hard working muckers is a little off. 

Skinner off the books and a rising cap might make it all okay, but that's a ways down the road and a lot can happen before then. I just hate to make assumptions of success before they happen on the ice. We already went through that with Eichel and Reinhart.

To the last bolded point, yes, maybe. If the mix of players in terms of style and what they bring is wrong there is nothing wrong with trading a scoring forward for checkers and PK guys or a tough D man or a solid goalie etc etc.  It's not that I hate Mitts. He's improved a lot. But $7 million for your 3C (if that's what he is) seems wrong. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's not wrong, but I guess my problem is ending up with a tight cap number BEFORE we've even gotten any good. What then? There's an assumption we will be a "decent team" and I'm still waiting to see that. We're right where we always are right now, near bottom. I'd suggest the mix of "star scorers" (for lack of a better description) and hard working muckers is a little off. 

Skinner off the books and a rising cap might make it all okay, but that's a ways down the road and a lot can happen before then. I just hate to make assumptions of success before they happen on the ice. We already went through that with Eichel and Reinhart.

To the last bolded point, yes, maybe. If the mix of players in terms of style and what they bring is wrong there is nothing wrong with trading a scoring forward for checkers and PK guys or a tough D man or a solid goalie etc etc.  It's not that I hate Mitts. He's improved a lot. But $7 million for your 3C (if that's what he is) seems wrong. 

I don’t really like the “7 million for a 3C?” argument. Imagine the Pens lowballing Malkin because “hey actually you are our 2C”. Position they play is merely semantics if the actual production is representative of more 

[PerreaultForever]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I don’t really like the “7 million for a 3C?” argument. Imagine the Pens lowballing Malkin because “hey actually you are our 2C”. Position they play is merely semantics if the actual production is representative of more 

Maybe, but Malkin helped win them cups. Mitts hasn't gotten us to the playoffs yet. No comparison. 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Maybe, but Malkin helped win them cups. Mitts hasn't gotten us to the playoffs yet. No comparison. 

I don’t expect their salaries to be very comparable either, though, so I’m going to hold serve on this one 

[Curt]

37 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's not wrong, but I guess my problem is ending up with a tight cap number BEFORE we've even gotten any good. What then? There's an assumption we will be a "decent team" and I'm still waiting to see that. We're right where we always are right now, near bottom. I'd suggest the mix of "star scorers" (for lack of a better description) and hard working muckers is a little off. 

Skinner off the books and a rising cap might make it all okay, but that's a ways down the road and a lot can happen before then. I just hate to make assumptions of success before they happen on the ice. We already went through that with Eichel and Reinhart.

To the last bolded point, yes, maybe. If the mix of players in terms of style and what they bring is wrong there is nothing wrong with trading a scoring forward for checkers and PK guys or a tough D man or a solid goalie etc etc.  It's not that I hate Mitts. He's improved a lot. But $7 million for your 3C (if that's what he is) seems wrong. 

Forgive me if I overstep by picking at your inner feelings, but I don’t think it’s really the 1st bolded that bothers you.  Both Ottawa and Detroit spent to the cap before they were any good and you liked it.

I think it’s actually the second bolded that bothers you.  You want more hard nosed players.  That’s fine, I don’t entirely disagree.  I do think it can be done by bringing in a couple more Greenway/Clifton/E Johnson type of additions though.  Guys who are affordable and fill a role.

I don’t really ASSUME that they will be a great team, but that’s the hope, right.  That’s what we plan for.  If it doesn’t happen for this group, the group will get blown up at some point.  These guys don’t have NTCs.  So if they fail and the group changes significantly, then any cap projections are out the window.  I can only project based upon what is here now.

If it makes you feel any better, the Sabres shouldn’t be tight to the cap next season either, based on the players who are currently in the organization.  If they are, it will be because they spent $8M+ on players coming in from the outside.