Prospect pool, summer 2023

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Is it possible to love too much?

Here's one for you, from Down Goes Brown in the Athletic:

 

It’s August, barely anything is happening, and the casual fans are all focused on baseball, barbecues, “Barbie”, and the occasional NFL preseason games. In the hockey world, only the diehards are still around. If you’re reading this, then that’s you.

Good. We need to talk.

I wouldn’t write this piece during the season because the casual fans would take it personally. They’d probably get upset. But you? You’re still reading hockey content in mid-August, even when you know there’s nothing to read about. You can handle some big kid talk. And that’s what you’re getting today.

We need to talk about you. Specifically, about your fan base. There are some truths that you and your fellow fans need to hear.

No, I don’t know which team you cheer for. That’s the beauty of it — I don’t need to. Because today we’re going to talk about some things that apply to pretty much every fan base. Even yours? Yes. Especially yours.

You may not like them, but it’s better that you hear them from a friend. Here is a hard truth your fan base needs to hear.

You’re overrating your prospects and young players

They’re not that good.

OK, yes, some of them are. Depending on where your team has spent the last few years on the whole contending-to-tanking continuum, they may even be very good.

They’re just not as good as you think they are.

That’s because you’re probably falling into the same trap that virtually all fans do: You’re looking into a future where all your team’s prospects have reached their ceiling. If every one of those guys is as good as the experts say they could be, we’re in great shape! But you’re not because that’s not how prospects work.

A few of them will reach their ceiling. If you’re very lucky, one or two might even go Tage Mode and smash through that ceiling. But other guys will stall out before they reach their full potential, and some will just end up as busts who never make it. That’s true even if your team is especially good at developing. It’s just the nature of how sports work.

And you know this, of course — when it comes to other teams. But when it’s your guys, and you’ve paid close attention to everything said about them, it’s easy to get caught up in the hype and confuse a ceiling with a most-likely outcome. And once you’ve fallen into that trap, you get very mad when somebody comes along and suggests that the future isn’t exceedingly bright. Look at this prospect list, you want to yell, it’s filled with future stars.

Except it isn’t.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The above article is exactly why we can and should move on from some of the forward prospects to fix holes in the NHL roster.  Trading an Östlund or a Rosen to get a legit partner for Levi is the right thing to do and should be done.  KA is taking a huge and unnecessary risk for a playoff contender by relying on 3 goalies with a collective total of 100 games of NHL experience.  

Another point, when you look at the Sabres prospect pool how many of these guys are you sure will play 100+ NHL games (50+ for goalies)?  Right now I think Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Levi are the only ones we can "guarantee" will reach that point.  Could others?  Absolutely, but it's probably only 6 or 7 more (which would still be an amazing result).  Östlund and Rosen top this next tier (obviously), then Johnson, Novikov, Wahlberg, and Neuchev would top my list of most likely to have NHL careers.  After this group, some guys may carve out careers, but valuing them too highly is a mistake and one we have all made.  Remember the hype around Bailey(82 games) and Baptiste (47 games)?  TM liked Hudson Fasching (87 games - 49 came last year) so much that he gave away McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for him.   How did that work out?

Edited August 11, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Eleven]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The above article is exactly why we can and should move on from some of the forward prospects to fix holes in the NHL roster.  Trading an Östlund or a Rosen to get a legit partner for Levi is the right thing to do and should be done.  KA is taking a huge and unnecessary risk for a playoff contender by relying on 3 goalies with a collective total of 100 games of NHL experience.  

Another point, when you look at the Sabres prospect pool how many of these guys are you sure will play 100+ NHL games (50+ for goalies)?  Right now I think Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Levi are the only ones we can "guarantee" will reach that point.  Could others?  Absolutely, but it's probably only 6 or 7 more (which would still be an amazing result).  Östlund and Rosen top this next tier (obviously), then Johnson, Novikov, Wahlberg, and Neuchev would top my list of most likely to have NHL careers.  After this group, some guys may carve out careers, but valuing them too highly is a mistake and one we have all made.  Remember the hype around Bailey(82 games) and Baptiste (47 games)?  TM liked Hudson Fasching (87 games - 49 came last year) so much that he gave away McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for him.   How did that work out?

Fine but what does this have to do with governmental UFO coverups?

[LGR4GM]

41 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The above article is exactly why we can and should move on from some of the forward prospects to fix holes in the NHL roster.  Trading an Östlund or a Rosen to get a legit partner for Levi is the right thing to do and should be done.  KA is taking a huge and unnecessary risk for a playoff contender by relying on 3 goalies with a collective total of 100 games of NHL experience.  

Another point, when you look at the Sabres prospect pool how many of these guys are you sure will play 100+ NHL games (50+ for goalies)?  Right now I think Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Levi are the only ones we can "guarantee" will reach that point.  Could others?  Absolutely, but it's probably only 6 or 7 more (which would still be an amazing result).  Östlund and Rosen top this next tier (obviously), then Johnson, Novikov, Wahlberg, and Neuchev would top my list of most likely to have NHL careers.  After this group, some guys may carve out careers, but valuing them too highly is a mistake and one we have all made.  Remember the hype around Bailey(82 games) and Baptiste (47 games)?  TM liked Hudson Fasching (87 games - 49 came last year) so much that he gave away McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for him.   How did that work out?

The implication here is you can trade Rosen or Östlund for a legit starting or solid backup keeper and I don't think that's true. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The implication here is you can trade Rosen or Östlund for a legit starting or solid backup keeper and I don't think that's true. 

Considering that the vast majority of goalies, starters and good backups, are traded for less than a 1st, I think Östlund or Rosen could easily get a legit goalie for the Sabres or at worst be the key piece of a package to get one.

The most expensive recent goalie trade was Colorado’s acquisition of Kuemper for a late 1st and Clague level prospect Connor Timmins (66 career NHL games).  Kuemper had one year left on his contract when acquired (@ $4.5).  Kuemper backstopped the Avs to the Cup if memory serves and then walked.  

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/4763819/2023/08/11/best-pro-hockey-players-not-nhl/
 

The Athletic’s 5 best pro hockey players not in the NHL by Allan Mitchell and look who is No.2 on his list.

Quote

 

LW Jiri Kulich, Rochester Americans (AHL)

Jiri Kulich is a first-round selection from 2022 (Buffalo Sabres) and is an example of why placing drafted players immediately into the AHL can benefit player and team.

If Kulich had been developed in Canadian junior, he would be hammering lesser competition. However, since he was drafted out of Czechia, he can play in the AHL.

He flourished in his draft-plus-one season and is poised to have an immediate impact when recalled by the Sabres. His 15 even-strength goals give an idea of what kind of scorer he’ll become in the future.

Scott Wheeler at The Athletic gave a rave review in his prospect pool rankings: “I like his positioning off the puck. I like the strength, balance and control of his skating stride. I like how quickly and hard shots come off of his stick.”

 

 

[Weave]

57 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The above article is exactly why we can and should move on from some of the forward prospects to fix holes in the NHL roster.  Trading an Östlund or a Rosen to get a legit partner for Levi is the right thing to do and should be done.  KA is taking a huge and unnecessary risk for a playoff contender by relying on 3 goalies with a collective total of 100 games of NHL experience.  

Another point, when you look at the Sabres prospect pool how many of these guys are you sure will play 100+ NHL games (50+ for goalies)?  Right now I think Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Levi are the only ones we can "guarantee" will reach that point.  Could others?  Absolutely, but it's probably only 6 or 7 more (which would still be an amazing result).  Östlund and Rosen top this next tier (obviously), then Johnson, Novikov, Wahlberg, and Neuchev would top my list of most likely to have NHL careers.  After this group, some guys may carve out careers, but valuing them too highly is a mistake and one we have all made.  Remember the hype around Bailey(82 games) and Baptiste (47 games)?  TM liked Hudson Fasching (87 games - 49 came last year) so much that he gave away McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for him.   How did that work out?

But, but, but, that’s what Murray did and it didn’t work.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Weave said:

But, but, but, that’s what Murray did and it didn’t work.

TM tried to fix an entire roster by that method.  I’m talking about about moving one or two prospects to fill one roster hole. Apples and oranges my friend.  

[Crusader1969]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

TM tried to fix an entire roster by that method.  I’m talking about about moving one or two prospects to fill one roster hole. Apples and oranges my friend.  

That day will come, there is no doubt in my mind.  It’s not quite the middle of August, let’s see how this plays out 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The above article is exactly why we can and should move on from some of the forward prospects to fix holes in the NHL roster.  Trading an Östlund or a Rosen to get a legit partner for Levi is the right thing to do and should be done.  KA is taking a huge and unnecessary risk for a playoff contender by relying on 3 goalies with a collective total of 100 games of NHL experience.  

Another point, when you look at the Sabres prospect pool how many of these guys are you sure will play 100+ NHL games (50+ for goalies)?  Right now I think Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Levi are the only ones we can "guarantee" will reach that point.  Could others?  Absolutely, but it's probably only 6 or 7 more (which would still be an amazing result).  Östlund and Rosen top this next tier (obviously), then Johnson, Novikov, Wahlberg, and Neuchev would top my list of most likely to have NHL careers.  After this group, some guys may carve out careers, but valuing them too highly is a mistake and one we have all made.  Remember the hype around Bailey(82 games) and Baptiste (47 games)?  TM liked Hudson Fasching (87 games - 49 came last year) so much that he gave away McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for him.   How did that work out?

If your examples about Bailey and Fasching are supposed to underscore the argument that because you usually don't know for sure which prospects are going to develop into a bona fide NHL players, then their value isn't as great as one might think. That's a reasonable perspective to take. There is another side to this issue. Because one doesn't know for sure if and when a high draft pick is going to develop, then it might make sense to have a larger pool of these prospects and more patience in waiting to see which players are capable of becoming NHL players. As you well know, prospects develop at different rates. With some prospects you can quickly see the talent, while with others who may be late bloomers. For players in the late bloomer category it just takes more time to make a concluding judgment.

Players such as Tage and Mitts took years before their talents came to fruition. Much of the delayed process can be attributed to physical development. It's apparent that KA values prospects and has collected a pool of them. And it's apparent that he is reluctant to deal his prospects (at least presently so) for more pro ready players. In general, I lean towards how the GM is accumulating and handling his pool of young players. 

 

 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

TM tried to fix an entire roster by that method.  I’m talking about about moving one or two prospects to fill one roster hole. Apples and oranges my friend.  

You need a new sarcasm meter.

[North Buffalo]

I get the sense Adams doesnt want to make a big mistake... still Östlund and Rosen are duplicative... heck Id throw in Ollie too... but he needs a goalie whisperer scout to find another younger version of Anderson... not sure who yet,  goalie is such a hard position to id fit and talent... but like QBs in football you keep trying til you hit on one.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/4763819/2023/08/11/best-pro-hockey-players-not-nhl/
 

The Athletic’s 5 best pro hockey players not in the NHL by Allan Mitchell and look who is No.2 on his list.

 

If they write this again next year, Novikov might be listed. 

Good for Kulich getting recognition. It's gonna be fun when he finally arrives. 

[Crusader1969]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If they write this again next year, Novikov might be listed. 

Good for Kulich getting recognition. It's gonna be fun when he finally arrives. 

The list isn’t ranked, so he is just 1 of the 5 listed but regardless he’s opening eyes across the hockey universe 

[dudacek]

55 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

I get the sense Adams doesnt want to make a big mistake... still Östlund and Rosen are duplicative... heck Id throw in Ollie too... but he needs a goalie whisperer scout to find another younger version of Anderson... not sure who yet,  goalie is such a hard position to id fit and talent... but like QBs in football you keep trying til you hit on one.

For each other? Other than the fact they are smallish forwards, they aren't at all alike as players.

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/4778368/2023/08/16/buffalo-sabres-top-prospects-rankings/
 

Fairburn’s top 5 Sabres prospects.  I think he makes a pretty solid case for his rankings, but his top 5 and everyone else is the same, just the order is a little different.

1. Benson - Highest upside - Sabres scouts said he was the best player on the ice in the games they scouted.  

2. Levi

3. Kulich - projects with similar scoring ability as VO, but with a better all around game

4. Savoie - thinks his tenacity will make him a good Pker.

5. Östlund - more patient development to come.

There has been some discussion above where Östlund fits long-term.  With the top 2 center jobs locked down, and Kulich, Quinn, JJP, Savoie and Benson ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s a legit question.  I do think Benson’s passing skills place him ahead of Östlund as the best playmaker in the system making Östlund a tradable asset in the future.

Edited August 16, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/4778368/2023/08/16/buffalo-sabres-top-prospects-rankings/
 

There has been some discussion above where Östlund fits long-term.  With the top 2 center jobs locked down, and Kulich, Quinn, JJP, Savoie and Benson ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s a legit question.  I do think Benson’s passing skill out him ahead of Östlund as the best playmaker in the system making Östlund a tradable asset  in the future.

I think this really premature.

Tage, Mitts, Cozens, Krebs Savoie, Östlund, Kulich can all likely play centre in your top 9.

Tage, Mitts, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Savoie, Kulich, Benson can all likely play wing in your top 9.

That's 10 players for 9 spots. Mitts is the only one you have to make a decision on significant money any time soon.

Tuch is a UFA in a few years, Skinner shortly after.

While i do see the merits of selling high on the prospects you perceive as least likely to make it, I don't think we've seen enough to be anointing some and trading others. We didn't know how good Thompson or Jokiharju was at 21, and I'm pretty sure we can say the same about Krebs and Savoie and really anyone younger than Tage.

I also see the merits of trading some expensive veterans when there are kids ready to step into their roles as a smart play under the cap, as people have already advocated for Mittelstadt. And this includes Cozens and Thompson, depending on how players throughout the organization develop.

As far as Östlund goes, there is definitely as much of an opportunity for him to grow into a middle six centre as there is Mittelstadt, Kulich, Krebs and Savoie. if he develops as predicted, he will be a middle 6 SHL centre this year, a middle 6 AHL next year and a bottom 6 NHL centre the year after. that's three years before you start to even think about "making room" for him.

Instead of zooming in to Östlund as the tradable asset, and one we should move now, I'm having my analytics and hockey people running cost/benefit analyses on all of them and being open to move any when the timing and opportunity line up.

Edited August 16, 2023 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

one we should move now,

I said in my post he is a tradeable asset in the future.  

That said, we all know that many of the forward stockpiled in our pipeline won't make the NHL and of those that make the NHL, some won't ever suit up for the Sabres.  There are plenty of examples just from recent history from Hagel to Compher to Armia to Lemieux. 

So here is a scenario that could very easily play out a year from now.  Clifton doesn't work playing 20 minutes a night and Joki struggles in that role again.  R Johnson looks NHL ready, but also isn't a 2nd pairing fit.  What is KA to do at that point?  Like Stl going after ROR, KA is going to make to move a prime asset to fill the top 4 D hole in his roster.  What prospects are you making available in trade? Stl protected Thomas and Kyrou, but agreed to move Thompson.    So now you are in KA's shoes, which prospect are you making available? The answers as of today are Östlund and Rosen, with Benson, Savoie, and Kulich off the table.

Let's even move the timetable up a year. What if Wpg comes to KA and says we'll take a good prospect, UPL, and a 2nd for Hellebuyck?  Would you make the deal with Östlund?  I would.

[dudacek]

48 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I said in my post he is a tradeable asset in the future.  

That said, we all know that many of the forward stockpiled in our pipeline won't make the NHL and of those that make the NHL, some won't ever suit up for the Sabres.  There are plenty of examples just from recent history from Hagel to Compher to Armia to Lemieux. 

So here is a scenario that could very easily play out a year from now.  Clifton doesn't work playing 20 minutes a night and Joki struggles in that role again.  R Johnson looks NHL ready, but also isn't a 2nd pairing fit.  What is KA to do at that point?  Like Stl going after ROR, KA is going to make to move a prime asset to fill the top 4 D hole in his roster.  What prospects are you making available in trade? Stl protected Thomas and Kyrou, but agreed to move Thompson.    So now you are in KA's shoes, which prospect are you making available? The answers as of today are Östlund and Rosen, with Benson, Savoie, and Kulich off the table.

Let's even move the timetable up a year. What if Wpg comes to KA and says we'll take a good prospect, UPL, and a 2nd for Hellebuyck?  Would you make the deal with Östlund?  I would.

I don’t agree with the bold: I would trade any of the prospects for the right return and I disagree that Östlund is a significantly less valuable piece than the three you want off the table. He gets underrated around here and he might be the only centre in the bunch.

Rosen, sure. I perceive him as a 2nd line wing ceiling; I think the other prospects are significantly better, we have a lot of other options to fill that role already, and they aren’t that hard to come by.

[PerreaultForever]

On 8/11/2023 at 9:23 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Considering that the vast majority of goalies, starters and good backups, are traded for less than a 1st, I think Östlund or Rosen could easily get a legit goalie for the Sabres or at worst be the key piece of a package to get one.

The most expensive recent goalie trade was Colorado’s acquisition of Kuemper for a late 1st and Clague level prospect Connor Timmins (66 career NHL games).  Kuemper had one year left on his contract when acquired (@ $4.5).  Kuemper backstopped the Avs to the Cup if memory serves and then walked.  

 

While I agree with your general idea and I do think prospects need to be considered assets that can be traded to make you instantly better and not JUST future players for your team, you are being a fan here and offering up the less shiny ones, the ones you don't feel are part of the future. I don't see them as being all that desirable to other GMs. 

eg Hart. Philly might be willing to listen to offers, but there's no way they move him for Östlund AND Rosen, let alone just one. maybe you can find a mediocre b level goalie somewhere but if that's the case why bother? You have to give to get imo. Personally I think we have so many forward prospects we should look at moving one or two for instant success, but definitely not all of them. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don’t agree with the bold: I would trade any of the prospects for the right return and I disagree that Östlund is a significantly less valuable piece than the three you want off the table. He gets underrated around here and he might be the only centre in the bunch.

Rosen, sure. I perceive him as a 2nd line wing ceiling; I think the other prospects are significantly better, we have a lot of other options to fill that role already, and they aren’t that hard to come by.

I see no reason why Kulich can't play 3rd line center.  Also, Mitts and Krebs are still in the picture, and if Krebs breaks out as the 3rd line center this year, the road to the NHL gets even harder for Östlund.  

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

While I agree with your general idea and I do think prospects need to be considered assets that can be traded to make you instantly better and not JUST future players for your team, you are being a fan here and offering up the less shiny ones, the ones you don't feel are part of the future. I don't see them as being all that desirable to other GMs. 

eg Hart. Philly might be willing to listen to offers, but there's no way they move him for Östlund AND Rosen, let alone just one. maybe you can find a mediocre b level goalie somewhere but if that's the case why bother? You have to give to get imo. Personally I think we have so many forward prospects we should look at moving one or two for instant success, but definitely not all of them. 

Go back and look at the ROR deal.  Stl balked at Thomas and Kyrou and Jbot settled on Thompson.  This happens all the time.  If Hellebuyck was more than a rental the price would go up, but he is only a rental at this stage.  Asking KA for any of the top 3 is a non-starter just as it was for Chychrun.  It's also not like Östlund is garbage.  He is the 5th best prospect in arguably the deepest prospect pool in the NHL. He is a mid 1st rd pick and had a fine year in Sweden.  On most teams, he'd be their 1st or 2nd best prospect.  

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I see no reason why Kulich can't play 3rd line center.  Also, Mitts and Krebs are still in the picture, and if Krebs breaks out as the 3rd line center this year, the road to the NHL gets even harder for Östlund.  

Go back and look at the ROR deal.  Stl balked at Thomas and Kyrou and Jbot settled on Thompson.  This happens all the time.  If Hellebuyck was more than a rental the price would go up, but he is only a rental at this stage.  Asking KA for any of the top 3 is a non-starter just as it was for Chychrun.  It's also not like Östlund is garbage.  He is the 5th best prospect in arguably the deepest prospect pool in the NHL. He is a mid 1st rd pick and had a fine year in Sweden.  On most teams, he'd be their 1st or 2nd best prospect.  

I agree entirely with the bold. That was kinda the point of my initial post, seeing what we have in Kulich, Mitts, Krebs and Östlund (and others) before deciding who is disposable. 
 

Also, this is true as well: I see no reason why Savoie can't play 3rd line center.  Also, Mitts and Krebs are still in the picture, and if Peterka breaks out as the 2nd line winger this year, the road to the NHL gets even harder for Kulich.

And this: I see no reason why Östlund can't play 3rd line center.  Also, Mitts and Krebs are still in the picture, and if Krebs breaks out as the 3rd line center this year, the road to the NHL gets even harder for Savoie.

 

[dudacek]

I'm curious if anyone thinks we have any actual stars in the pipeline?

And by stars I mean players who are in the conversation when people are talking about NHL stars, not really good players and local heroes: Dahlin and Thompson last year emerged as stars. Eichel is a star. Miller was a star.  Skinner and Vanek and Reinhart and Pominville and Drury were very good first line players, but not stars. Hasek was a superstar.

I think Power could be a star and if anyone might join him it will be Levi.

I have very high hopes for Quinn reaching that Pominville level and Cozens is already close, but it's no guarantee.

Beyond that, many others could get there, but I suspect most of our best prospects will fall somewhere between Rasmus Asplund and JP Dumont.

[Flashsabre]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm curious if anyone thinks we have any actual stars in the pipeline?

And by stars I mean players who are in the conversation when people are talking about NHL stars, not really good players and local heroes: Dahlin and Thompson last year emerged as stars. Eichel is a star. Miller was a star.  Skinner and Vanek and Reinhart and Pominville and Drury were very good first line players, but not stars. Hasek was a superstar.

I think Power could be a star and if anyone might join him it will be Levi.

I have very high hopes for Quinn reaching that Pominville level and Cozens is already close, but it's no guarantee.

Beyond that, many others could get there, but I suspect most of our best prospects will fall somewhere between Rasmus Asplund and JP Dumont.

Levi, Benson, Kulich should be stars

Savoie and Östlund have the chance to be stars

Everything depends on development. Plenty of star players aren’t perceived as stars as prospects. Jamie Benn, Mark Stone, Marty St. Louis and many more were drafted late or not drafted and developed into star players.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Flashsabre

[Derrico]

50 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm curious if anyone thinks we have any actual stars in the pipeline?

And by stars I mean players who are in the conversation when people are talking about NHL stars, not really good players and local heroes: Dahlin and Thompson last year emerged as stars. Eichel is a star. Miller was a star.  Skinner and Vanek and Reinhart and Pominville and Drury were very good first line players, but not stars. Hasek was a superstar.

I think Power could be a star and if anyone might join him it will be Levi.

I have very high hopes for Quinn reaching that Pominville level and Cozens is already close, but it's no guarantee.

Beyond that, many others could get there, but I suspect most of our best prospects will fall somewhere between Rasmus Asplund and JP Dumont.

Maybe it’s recency bias but I’ll throw my hat in the Zach Benson ring.  His vision is unreal.  His battle and defensive game for his age is very good.  Out of all the prospects it would surprise me least if he becomes a star.