Prospect pool, summer 2023

[Taro T]

50 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The biggest surprise for me has been Cederqvist.  I thought of him as a guy who would be a solid AHLer and then eventually return to Sweden to play a middle 6 role there.  

However, after watching him play some, and seeing his size and skill level, I'm now wondering if he has a future as a good 4th line NHLer.  I can see him on a line with Greenway in 2024-25 playing tough physical hockey while chipping in the type of offense we got from the Gaustad line back in the day. 

In general, I'm also seeing guys who need another year of seasoning before making the NHL. Lots of positives from Benson, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Johnson, and Metsa, but also more work is needed.  That said, there will be a ton of guys trying to force their way onto the Sabres after this coming season.  I don't envy KA the task of determining which guys to keep, which to move, and which guys to sign long-term.  Some really hard decisions are coming.  

One other quick thought; Kulich playing center.  I believe Sabres management thinks of him as the 3rd line center long-term.  I suspect he'll play in Rochester this coming season primarily at center.  

Which is another part of why missing the playoffs by 2 points last year was such a disappointment.  (Yes, they were 1 point behind 8 but needed 2 because they didn't hold the tiebreaker.)

Sneaing into the playoffs last year with the equivalent of a 9-7 season would've allowed them to really drive home the systems they want to play when they actually add defensive responsibilities to the overall system and would allow any growing pains Levi experiences to not be as devastating as they'll seem should those cause the team to take a small step back.  (And even if they gain 6 or so points over last year; the odds are 92 isn't going to be enough to get in and they could still miss the playoffs with 97 which would feel like a step back.)

Am very much looking forward to this season, as am expecting the team to get into the 100's and finally clinch a playoff spot and get back to relevance.  But that next season could be extremely special.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Which is another part of why missing the playoffs by 2 points last year was such a disappointment.  (Yes, they were 1 point behind 8 but needed 2 because they didn't hold the tiebreaker.)

Sneaing into the playoffs last year with the equivalent of a 9-7 season would've allowed them to really drive home the systems they want to play when they actually add defensive responsibilities to the overall system and would allow any growing pains Levi experiences to not be as devastating as they'll seem should those cause the team to take a small step back.  (And even if they gain 6 or so points over last year; the odds are 92 isn't going to be enough to get in and they could still miss the playoffs with 97 which would feel like a step back.)

Am very much looking forward to this season, as am expecting the team to get into the 100's and finally clinch a playoff spot and get back to relevance.  But that next season could be extremely special.

Since I wrote my post I’ve been trying to visualize how the forward group will evolve after this coming season for 2024-25 and beyond.  While a discussion of that is probably not appropriate in this thread and possibly premature, it is in interesting to project who stays and who goes.

[bob_sauve28]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Since I wrote my post I’ve been trying to visualize how the forward group will evolve after this coming season for 2024-25 and beyond.  While a discussion of that is probably not appropriate in this thread and possibly premature, it is in interesting to project who stays and who goes.

And what we get for who goes...

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

And what we get for who goes...

Agreed.

[JustOneParade]

16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Since I wrote my post I’ve been trying to visualize how the forward group will evolve after this coming season for 2024-25 and beyond.  While a discussion of that is probably not appropriate in this thread and possibly premature, it is in interesting to project who stays and who goes.

Its very appropriate I believe. Because if the Sabres intend to deploy a 'checking line' beyond this year, who in the current top tier of prospects can fit in that role? And if a checking line is in the plans, where are the openings that his top tier fits in? Hence, @bob_sauve28's comment above.

[LabattBlue]

2 hours ago, Quint said:

I'd love to see Josh Fleming make it.

A lot of people felt the same way out Suchanek the last couple of years, but as far as I know he is still undrafted. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Its very appropriate I believe. Because if the Sabres intend to deploy a 'checking line' beyond this year, who in the current top tier of prospects can fit in that role? And if a checking line is in the plans, where are the openings that his top tier fits in? Hence, @bob_sauve28's comment above.

I started a thread for that discussion.

[JohnC]

57 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Which is another part of why missing the playoffs by 2 points last year was such a disappointment.  (Yes, they were 1 point behind 8 but needed 2 because they didn't hold the tiebreaker.)

Sneaing into the playoffs last year with the equivalent of a 9-7 season would've allowed them to really drive home the systems they want to play when they actually add defensive responsibilities to the overall system and would allow any growing pains Levi experiences to not be as devastating as they'll seem should those cause the team to take a small step back.  (And even if they gain 6 or so points over last year; the odds are 92 isn't going to be enough to get in and they could still miss the playoffs with 97 which would feel like a step back.)

Am very much looking forward to this season, as am expecting the team to get into the 100's and finally clinch a playoff spot and get back to relevance.  But that next season could be extremely special.

With the additions of Johnson and Clfiton our PK should be better? Maybe adding 4 to 6 points? There should be better team defense from all our lines. Maybe adding another 6 points within the season? Will our netminding be better with Levi as the primary goalie and the other two as backups, however it shakes out? I think so. Is it 4-6 pts better within the season? That's not a stretch to believe. The Sabres had three separate eight game segments in the season where they didn't get a win. It's not unreasonable to believe that a couple more tie/loser and added winning points within the 3 segments could add another 3-6 points within the season. I don't expect to have as good a road record as we had last year. But I do expect a much better home record. And it should be noted that when the arena was filled or near filled, and the fans were engaged, this team did play well at home. 

Everything I have suggested is of course theoretical but also very doable. The unknown is the ability to stay healthy and the ability for this team to slightly modify their style of player to playing a little bit better two-way brand of game. A projection of 98 pts is not outlandish. 

[Hank]

I don't see any way that Kulich, Savoie and Benson are not on the team next year. Then there's Rosen who might force his way in. I see no reasonable way for Cedar to Crack the lineup. Maybe the plan might be to try to outscore everyone?

 

Skinner Thompson Tuch

JJP Cozens Quinn

Benson Kulich Savoie

Mitts Krebs Greenway

[inkman]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The biggest surprise for me has been Cederqvist.  I thought of him as a guy who would be a solid AHLer and then eventually return to Sweden to play a middle 6 role there.  

However, after watching him play some, and seeing his size and skill level, I'm now wondering if he has a future as a good 4th line NHLer.  I can see him on a line with Greenway in 2024-25 playing tough physical hockey while chipping in the type of offense we got from the Gaustad line back in the day. 

In general, I'm also seeing guys who need another year of seasoning before making the NHL. Lots of positives from Benson, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Johnson, and Metsa, but also more work is needed.  That said, there will be a ton of guys trying to force their way onto the Sabres after this coming season.  I don't envy KA the task of determining which guys to keep, which to move, and which guys to sign long-term.  Some really hard decisions are coming.  

One other quick thought; Kulich playing center.  I believe Sabres management thinks of him as the 3rd line center long-term.  I suspect he'll play in Rochester this coming season primarily at center.  

His size gives him something that none of the prospects ahead of him have.  

[Quint]

Buffalo seems to draft smallish skilled players year after year. And so the Sabres are usually last in the league in hits. I'd like to see at least one draft where they draft all thugs. Rob Ray, Barnaby, May and all those guys had a significant positive impact on the Sabres winning when they played.

[bob_sauve28]

11 minutes ago, Quint said:

Buffalo seems to draft smallish skilled players year after year. And so the Sabres are usually last in the league in hits. I'd like to see at least one draft where they draft all thugs. Rob Ray, Barnaby, May and all those guys had a significant positive impact on the Sabres winning when they played.

Would you call our top six small? I think they are kind of on bigger side, aside from Skinner. Mitts has turned into a bull, too

Maybe they are just small when we draft them and they just grow into man bodies later. 

[Quint]

4 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Would you call our top six small? I think they are kind of on bigger side, aside from Skinner. Mitts has turned into a bull, too

Maybe they are just small when we draft them and they just grow into man bodies later. 

The whole team doesn't hit, that's been fairly established. With Tuch-Thompson-Skinner and Cozens-Quinn-Peterka we have maybe one guy who hits, Cozens, and he's more known for finesse. We have to trade for hitters. Why can't we draft them? Rob Ray was 6' 220 in his playing days. You don't have to be huge to hit, you just have to have the hitting mentality, which our guys don't have. Even Clifford, who seems to be a designated hitter for the defense, to make up for our other d-men who are more known for their finesse game, is only 5'11 175. 

Edited September 19, 2023 by Quint

[tom webster]

3 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Would you call our top six small? I think they are kind of on bigger side, aside from Skinner. Mitts has turned into a bull, too

Maybe they are just small when we draft them and they just grow into man bodies later. 

If you watch the embedded show, Adams even jokes that they will be accused of leaning toward smaller players. 
They draft highly competitive, talented players. Size is overrated anyway, almost as much as hits. Besides, Ray, Barnaby and May aren’t exactly big guys either.

2 minutes ago, Quint said:

With Tuch-Thompson-Skinner and Cozens-Quinn-Peterka we have maybe one guy who hits, Cozens. The whole team doesn't hit, that's been fairly established. We have to trade for hitters. Why can't we draft them?

Again, hits are so overrated. 

[bob_sauve28]

29 minutes ago, Quint said:

The whole team doesn't hit, that's been fairly established. With Tuch-Thompson-Skinner and Cozens-Quinn-Peterka we have maybe one guy who hits, Cozens, and he's more known for finesse. We have to trade for hitters. Why can't we draft them? Rob Ray was 6' 220 in his playing days. You don't have to be huge to hit, you just have to have the hitting mentality, which our guys don't have. Even Clifford, who seems to be a designated hitter for the defense, to make up for our other d-men who are more known for their finesse game, is only 5'11 175. 

Rob Ray? We don't need another Ray. His role is obsolete in this NHL 

[LGR4GM]

Did you know that hits are one of the worst recorded metrics in the NHL. In fact they vary wildly between NHL rinks. 

https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/01/30/breaking-down-the-inconsistencies-in-counting-hits-between-different-nhl-arenas/

Quote

On the flip side, let’s take a closer look at the Buffalo Sabres. They have the most significant negative hits bias in the division at -11.6. Their hits leader is Rasmus Ristolainen, and his home and away splits paint a similar picture.

At home, Ristolainen has 11 hits over four games, compared to 18 over four road games. He averages 2.75 hits in each home game and 4.5 hits in every away game. That’s a very significant difference.

This was from 2021

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, Quint said:

Buffalo seems to draft smallish skilled players year after year. And so the Sabres are usually last in the league in hits. I'd like to see at least one draft where they draft all thugs. Rob Ray, Barnaby, May and all those guys had a significant positive impact on the Sabres winning when they played.

Wahlberg and Mediema are 6’3-6’4.

Strabek and McCarthy are 6’2-6’3

They don't just draft small guys.

And size and hitting don’t really correlate anyways.

Leafs signed Ryan Reeves. Do you think he will play a big part for the Leafs?

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Flashsabre said:

Wahlberg and Mediema are 6’3-6’4.

Strabek and McCarthy are 6’2-6’3

They don't just draft small guys.

And size and hitting don’t really correlate anyways.

Leafs signed Ryan Reeves. Do you think he will play a big part for the Leafs?

I don't worry too much about their size. Outside of Savoie and Benson, they really haven't drafted small in terms of height and personally weight matters so little for 18yr olds because some of them add anywhere from 20-40lbs in muscle by the time they hit 22. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

 

https://theathletic.com/4869485/2023/09/19/nhl-rookie-tournament-prospects-standouts/

Quote

 

Matt Savoie, C/RW, Buffalo: It didn’t take long watching the games in Buffalo this week to come to the conclusion that the host team was the most talented. Isak Rosen (two goals and four points in two games) was one of the best players on the ice in both of the Sabres’ first two games of the tournament, knifing up coverage on the puck (and as a passer). Zach Benson (a goal and an assist in two games) didn’t look the least bit out of place as an 18-year-old. Jiri Kulich looked like a player who did what he did in the AHL last year. Nikita Novikov’s 100-plus games of KHL experience showed.

But Savoie’s pace and work ethic were just so noticeable, right up until he appeared to hurt his shoulder on his first shift of Monday night’s finale. He routinely looked like he had a half step on the opposition, both in jump and in raw speed whenever he turned on the jets. He plays the game with such drive that his size never once felt like a factor (he has always been sneaky-strong, too).

 

https://theathletic.com/4876049/2023/09/18/sabres-prospect-matt-savoie-injury/

Besides Savoie's excellent play and very unfortunate injury, here are Fairburn's thoughts on the young Sabres

1. Rosen - "But he might have been the best of the bunch in this tournament." (bunch = Savoie, Benson, Kulich and Rosen)

2. Kulich - "His shot is already NHL caliber, and he’s probably strong enough to play in the NHL, too." "He looks like he could step into the league and play on Buffalo’s second power play right now if asked."

The real question for these two is are they ready to win jobs in camp.

3. Benson - "Benson didn’t take over this tournament the way Connor Bedard took over the rookie tournament for the Chicago Blackhawks, but he showed why the Sabres were so excited to get him at No. 13. He plays a fast game without being the fastest skater on the ice because he thinks the game so well."

4. Neuchev -  “His hockey intelligence is extremely strong,” Appert said. “Very good offensive instincts. He can play the game we want to play organizationally, which is give-and-go hockey and making quick plays, thinking fast.”

5. Novikov - 5 assists in the first 2 games. "He’s 6 foot 4 and willing to use that size to separate forwards from the puck. But his offensive instincts continued to stand out in this tournament. He was pushing the play up the ice and showed off what his teammates described as “elite” passing skills."

6. Kozak - "He was a mainstay on the penalty kill and is showing more and more offensive touch. It’s not out of the question that he develops into a bottom-six NHL forward at some point in the next few years."

7. Johnson -  According to Appert "Johnson is going to get to the NHL by being an effective player at five-on-five and improving in his own end. Those will be the areas of focus for Johnson in Rochester this season."

8. Metsa - "He’s only on an AHL contract right now, but the way he’s played, he may get more than that before too long."

 

[LGR4GM]

Novikov having 5 assists in 2 games is pretty solid. I think there is a ton of offensive potential just begging to be unlocked in his game. He's going to end up getting tons of minutes in Rochester once the coaches realize what they've got. Good news is he will be getting way more minutes and opportunities than he did in the KHL. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Novikov having 5 assists in 2 games is pretty solid. I think there is a ton of offensive potential just begging to be unlocked in his game. He's going to end up getting tons of minutes in Rochester once the coaches realize what they've got. Good news is he will be getting way more minutes and opportunities than he did in the KHL. 

 I think Appert already knows what he has in Novikov and Johnson.  It's pretty clear from his interviews that he has a development plan in place to help get both guys to the NHL.  He was very specific on Johnson saying he could run the Amerks PP, but with Dahlin and Power in Buffalo already, Johnson's road to the NHL will be as a D first guy who uses his excellent skating to get the puck out quickly.  My guess is he'll have something similar in mind for Novikov.  That said, both guys are going to pick up 5 on 5 points pretty easily as their skating will help them on the rush 5 on 5.

[bob_sauve28]

29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 I think Appert already knows what he has in Novikov and Johnson.  It's pretty clear from his interviews that he has a development plan in place to help get both guys to the NHL.  He was very specific on Johnson saying he could run the Amerks PP, but with Dahlin and Power in Buffalo already, Johnson's road to the NHL will be as a D first guy who uses his excellent skating to get the puck out quickly.  My guess is he'll have something similar in mind for Novikov.  That said, both guys are going to pick up 5 on 5 points pretty easily as their skating will help them on the rush 5 on 5.

Novikov may have not gotten drafted so high because of the war and not knowing if and when he would become available

[RochesterExpat]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Novikov may have not gotten drafted so high because of the war and not knowing if and when he would become available

Novikov was a 6th round pick in 2021 so that was before the war in Ukraine started. I swear Kris Baker said Novikov gave teams an impression that he might not sign to play in North America and that's partly why he fell to his position. I can understand from the player perspective about choosing to play in your home country given the success rate of later-round players actually breaking into the NHL. KHL salaries will exceed basic AHL ones. So it's not outlandish to believe he might have said something to this effect.

Regardless, this was the COVID draft where there wasn't a lot of data on players and so it's hard to tell what his "real" draft position should have been. Craig Button had him as an early 3rd round pick. On the other hand, NHL Central Scouting had him at 137 of 150 for international skaters. Keep in mind, while he's played 100+ KHL games, he only played in the MHL prior to his draft and his paper stat lines weren't all the impressive. 

Because the draft age cutoff is September 15th, if he'd been born 2 1/2 months 7 weeks later, his draft season would have been spent in the KHL which would have helped his draft stock immensely. Hell, scouts were surprised to see him practicing with the KHL squad a month after the draft in the KHL version of training camp. The fact no one expected him to even get an invite a month after the draft says a lot about how overlooked he was. A month later he scored his first KHL goal. That turned heads. It's not to say he didn't struggle his first season in the KHL. He was sent down at one point. He was also scratched during the final game of the playoffs. But, again, he was 18 playing in the KHL. That's still impressive. He built off that by getting PK and PP time at 19 at which point he was hard to ignore for anyone who follows prospects or international hockey.

Buffalo benefited substantially from being in a position of patience and being able to draft and wait on players, but also just some luck. I assume Buffalo figured they'd be looking at him in 4-5 years. Not two.

I want to add that his NHL draft evaluation had him as a below average skater. This perception has carried through and stuck with him. The KHL actually records player speeds (top speed and average) in the box score. More often than not, he had the highest average speed of all D-men. His top speed frequently was the highest on the ice--for all skaters. Yeah, multiple times he's been the fastest skater on the ice in a KHL game. At 19. As a D-man. That's wild.

Edited September 19, 2023 by RochesterExpat
fixed my maths

[Flashsabre]

I think Novikov, Johnson And Metsa are going to be really fun to watch on that Amerks backend this season. And I think Metsa signs an NHL deal real quick. Add Nicholas Savoie and that’s 4 prospect dmen that will be playing roles on the Amerks.

They really have turned the Amerks into a true development team.

And Appert has been so impressive with the way he interacts with the media and knowledge of his players. They all speak about their interactions with him during the season. Guy will be an NHL coach down the line.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Flashsabre

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

And Appert has been so impressive with the way he interacts with the media and knowledge of his players. They all speak about their interactions with him during the season. Guy will be an NHL coach down the line.

Sadly for the Amerks, but good for him, I think he'll get an NHL opportunity soon.  This past season he lost his top 2 assistants.  How long until teams realize he is ready for an NHL gig?