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Where Are We in the Crease Right Now?

Porous Five Hole

By Porous Five Hole
in The Aud Club

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Where Are We in the Crease Right Now?  

55 members have voted

  1. 1. Who should start Tuesday?

  2. 2. Who should start Thur in Boston?

  3. 3. What’s best for UPL’s long term development?

    • The majority of the starts in Buffalo
      14
    • AHL stint to reset
      25
    • One head of a three headed crease monster
      16

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Drag0nDan Fourth Liner

Drag0nDan

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, French Collection said:

Anderson’s body can’t handle enough games. Play him as much as he can handle.

Comrie is still trying to get his footing, needs more starts. They need more games to see what he can do.

UPL wins quite a few but makes me flinch on every shot. Do not anoint him #1

There are less than 30 games left and Anderson is the best we have.  I still carry 3 because i'd rather UPL start than comrie, but Anderson should get 2/3 starts the rest of the way.  He's already retiring after the year, just play your ass off and leave it on the ice. 

Are we going to really roll 3 different goalies out in a playoff series?  

Edited by Drag0nDan
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Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

The names being thrown around right now are Gibson, Demko, Talbot. Vejmelka. Whether they are really available and whether Sabres are interested is another matter.

Rumors are Gibson already nixed a trade to the Sabres this past summer.  Would be shocked if Adams were still interested in obtaining him.

The rest ?????

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John Tucker Fourth Liner

John Tucker

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Don't know if there are stats out there, but how many Grade A scoring chances have we given up per game?  Permanently remove Bryson and Clague and I would venture to guess our team save percentage increases.  My concern with trading for a "quality" goaltender would make the boys on the back end more loosy-goosy.

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nfreeman Hall of Famer

nfreeman

Posted
Posted

UPL certainly hasn't shown enough to be comfortable that he's a good NHL starter, but I think it's worth remembering that he's 23 and has had 38 NHL starts.  Ullmark didn't become a starter until he was 25, and he wasn't a good NHL starter at that point.  But he improved a bit each year and now, at 29, he's a Vezina candidate.

UPL's story isn't written yet.  Of course, that doesn't help us decide who should play this year.

I think they're going to continue to play Anderson once every 3 games or so, and let UPL and Comrie fight it out for who gets the bulk of the other starts.

I will be pretty surprised if they trade for a goalie.

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RochesterExpat Fourth Liner

RochesterExpat

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, nfreeman said:

UPL certainly hasn't shown enough to be comfortable that he's a good NHL starter, but I think it's worth remembering that he's 23 and has had 38 NHL starts.  Ullmark didn't become a starter until he was 25, and he wasn't a good NHL starter at that point.  But he improved a bit each year and now, at 29, he's a Vezina candidate.

UPL's development curve has also been hampered by injuries. This year, thankfully, he's been healthy, but he's done nowhere close to a starting goalie's workload since the OHL and he still won't this season because the 3-headed goalie rotation. Since he was was drafted in 2017:

2017-18: 46 games (Liiga + WJC)

2018-19: 78 games (OHL, AHL (one game), WJC)

2019-20: 33 games (10 AHL, 23 ECHL)

2020-21: 31 games (Liiga for 13, AHL for 14, 4 in the NHL)

2021-22: 44 games (9 in NHL, 35 in AHL)

2022-23: 33 games (24 NHL, 9 AHL) -- 24 total games remaining of which I'd guess at most he gets 12 starts bringing him to 45 games

Linus Ullmark's development curve since joining the league was 48, 56, 52, 37, 34, and 20 games during his tenure with Buffalo. Injuries obviously hurt him toward the end, but his initial seasons here were frontloaded. The opposite of UPL.

UPL turns 24 in a couple days and goalies are just plain weird for development. The problem is the Sabres are ahead of schedule on the rebuild. If we were 15 points outside a playoff spot, everyone would be clamoring for UPL to start every game so he could get experience, but we aren't. The irony is that we're playing for wins at this point and the concern that UPL isn't reliable in net (which is completely valid because he isn't) runs counter to the stats: Craig Anderson is 9-7-2 this season, Eric Comrie is 7-8-0 and UPL is 15-8-2. If you want points you play UPL. 

Also, to preempt the argument about the losing streak when our D-men all decided to get hurt affecting goalie stats, we hit a losing streak from 11/4 (Anderson) that lasted until 11/23 (UPL). During that time, UPL lost one, Comrie lost 4, and Anderson lost 3. If we take those games out, the goal tending is all about even and it doesn't make Anderson a clear frontrunner. So yes we should be starting UPL still if we choose to cherry pick the season.

image.thumb.png.fc5569415b2ad25d18fc3415e60b1706.png

So how bad is UPL? 

When Craig is on the ice, the xGAA is 3.21 and his real GAA is 2.70 which puts him at .51 which is enough for 7th in the league for goalies with 15+ starts which is good for those of you keep track at home. More interestingly, the xGAA for both UPL and Comrie is worse. UPL is 3.47 and Comrie is 3.30 for a GAA better than expected of -.10 and -.30, respectively. UPL's xGAA better than expected is basically "average" by the model and Comrie's is bad.

The difference between the xGAA for Andy and UPL is .26 and for Comrie and Andy it's .09. So what's up with the Andy and UPL numbers? When Andy is in net, the Sabres are blocking more shots (quite a bit more per 60) and aren't allowing the same high-danger scoring chances they are against UPL and Comrie. They're playing more defensively. The team is also playing more defensively with Comrie than UPL which is telling of Comrie's play and not in a good way.

What other teams have deltas this large between goalies? Only teams with clear frontrunners in net (Colorado: .44, Calgary: .29, Islanders: .23) come close to Buffalo. It's a cheap and easy metric for how much players trust their goalies. The problem in Buffalo's case is the goalie the players trust to make saves is playing basically league-average goaltending. He's not a superstar. He's just marginally worse than the model's "average" goalie.

Also, for the record, last season the difference between Tokarski and Anderson (the only two goalies with 15+ starts) was .04. 

Point of order on xGAA: rebounds can negatively effect the score because those tend to be "high danger" chances, but UPL is handling rebounds better than both Comrie and Anderson this season so, if anything, it makes the argument about the defense in front of him more apparent.

So how bad is the defense in front of UPL that's allowing these shots? Well, the only goalies ahead of him are with Anaheim, Montreal, Arizona, Columbus and Chicago. So, yeah, when we play like a bottom tier team, we let in a lot of goals. I realize that's a simplification, but the generality holds true. And the goaltending in front of Comrie and Andy isn't much better but it is still better.

So to summarize my totally unpopular opinion: UPL is not a good goalie but he's not as bad as people think either because the team doesn't play defense in front of him like they do Andy or even Comrie. This hurts his stats. No one would think twice about this if we weren't pushing for a playoff spot ahead of schedule which, funny enough, is largely because of UPL's play. Craig is a better goalie, yes, but the team doesn't win games at the same rate as they do under UPL so someone call a sports psychologist to explain that one. Do you want wins or good goaltending? Because in Buffalo you don't get both.

At the end of the day, we need to ask ourselves if we want to try and accelerate the timeline to make a playoff spot only to get absolutely hammered in the first round when our lack of defensive play and goaltending becomes apparent. Also, adding another defensemen isn't the solution to the issue when we have a good chunk of the middle six that's a defensive liability on 5v5. The cost of playing more defense in front of Andy comes at the cost of wins. With UPL in net, the team's attitude is "score more, win more" and with Craig it's more of a complete style of hockey (which just further shows the issues in our current roster). We're not a team that can play a complete game yet. That's something that needs to be fixed in the off-season and not at the overpriced trade deadline. Keep playing UPL so he gets reps. Stop worrying about the playoffs--we weren't supposed to make it this year anyway. Be happy we are team chaos and just embrace it.

Edited by RochesterExpat
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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

For those if you who had Anderson for tonight, Meatballs agrees with you.  
 

It is pretty clear that Comrie is the least trusted guy right now.  

Which is the way it should be based on performance.

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Pimlach All Star

Pimlach

Posted
Posted

I picked Comrie for tonight.   Seems like it was his time in the rotation, game at home, against a lesser opponent and leaves Anderson for the Broons. 

 

Hmmm.   

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Which is the way it should be based on performance.

He beat Tampa and only let in 5.    LOL 

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Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, dudacek said:

Which is the way it should be based on performance.

Since the 1st of January, Anderson in games against teams below the Sabres in the Standings  

Otters - L

Phlyers - L

Chicago - OTL

BJ's - L

Stop playing him against the cruddy teams.  He's supposed to guarantee the win against them, but he's a big part of the problem against them.  He gave up a goal a minute into the Otter game setting the tone.  Gave up a goal 2 mintues in setting the tone in the Filly game.  Gave up a goal 1 minute into the 3rd giving a horrible team a reason to not quit and the team wasted another point against the Hawks.  Lyubushkin set a screen against him on the 1st goal last night, but he probably should've had that and he definitely should've had the 2nd goal.

Yes, he played great in the 1st against Dallas and was the biggest reason why they won that game.  Yes, he played very well against the Swamp Cats as well.

But against the bottom feeders he is not providing that timely save the team needs to get past whatever mental block they have when playing them.  And, IMHO his play is causing part of that mental block.  (Note, said part, not in any way is he entirely responsible for that.)

Though his best play is better than either UPL or Comrie, he doesn't bring that every game.  They should be in a 3 man rotation until somebody takes control of the crease or until Levi is available, whichever comes first.

All 3 goalies have major flaws and though everybody here has their whipping boy not one of these guys deserves the support their adherents give to them.

Edited by Taro T
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Quint Fourth Liner

Quint

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Posted

This will probably be Anderson's last year so I'd trade him to a top contender to give him a chance to win a cup. I'd probably trade UPL as well to clear the way for Levi. Not overly impressed with Comrie either. Ultimately, I'd like to see a duo of Levi and Vejmelka.

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nucci Second Liner

nucci

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Quint said:

This will probably be Anderson's last year so I'd trade him to a top contender to give him a chance to win a cup. I'd probably trade UPL as well to clear the way for Levi. Not overly impressed with Comrie either. Ultimately, I'd like to see a duo of Levi and Vejmelka.

which top contenders would trade for Anderson?

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Quint Fourth Liner

Quint

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Posted
3 minutes ago, nucci said:

which top contenders would trade for Anderson?

Can't think of everything but the Leafs, the Kings and Edmonton seem to be spots. So might Calgary and Florida. (Might be getting off the "top contenders" idea). I'd like to see Anderson win a cup. I know he's old but he's having a great season. He's just not part of the future.

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Marvin First Liner

Marvin

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Posted
2 hours ago, Quint said:

Can't think of everything but the Leafs, the Kings and Edmonton seem to be spots. So might Calgary and Florida. (Might be getting off the "top contenders" idea). I'd like to see Anderson win a cup. I know he's old but he's having a great season. He's just not part of the future.

The only reason not to is that I don't think he wants to be traded.

Reminder to self: UPL is still only 23; he could still be a couple of years away.

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DarthEbriate All Star

DarthEbriate

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Quint said:

Can't think of everything but the Leafs, the Kings and Edmonton seem to be spots. So might Calgary and Florida. (Might be getting off the "top contenders" idea). I'd like to see Anderson win a cup. I know he's old but he's having a great season. He's just not part of the future.

If you move Anderson then you sell the season and any chance of the playoffs. You'd need to also send Okposo with retention (for cap floor and also a higher pick in return), Girgs for... a 2nd?, and Hino... for a 5th? out immediately.

edit: Check that. If you retain all 50% on Girgs you might be able to get a 1st for him as a rental. There are contenders who'd love his game and it's worth the late, late 1st and the deflation of draft picks this season. The circle would be complete: Gaustad -> 1st -> Girgs -> 1st

Edited by DarthEbriate
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