Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

As has been said, this is critical.

To compete for the cup, you FIRST have to get players good enough to get to the playoffs

The next part, getting over the top, having 'good' contracts that give you flexibility over who you are competing with is the next step after you get there.

So if those estimates hold, the NHL looks to have the cap increase by about 4-4.5% per year.  Both Cozens and Tage will be in the prime of their careers by the time they get to the mid-point of their deals (year 4) which will be in the 2026-2027 season.

So ask yourself this...how good will Cozens and Tage be in 4 years from now?  Because if the Cap trends show above are true, their deals will be about 7.5% of the cap at that point.  For comparison, Skinner's deal is/was over 10% of the cap at the mid point of his deal. Right now Barkov is 27 and getting paid 12.1% of the cap. Seb Aho is close to 10%. Rantannan is at over 11%. Marner, Tavares and Matthews are over 13 or 14%.  So, if Cozens and Tage don't get any better than they are today, the deals are still 'not bad', but if they keep getting better, they are ABSURD good deals.

Point of clarification. If neither player gets any better and they just maintain their current levels, both deals are good and Tage's is robbery. 

[Skibum]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

70-80 points!? He's at a career high with 43...What are you basing this on?

43 pts/49 games = .8775 * 82 = a 72 point pace now, and he's getting better every day. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Skibum

[Thorny]

I cannot oversell how crazy McDavid just is in general. The Tage deal is an astronomical steal, and when we add in another good value contract to the equation, that insane combined *value* is still being equaled by the BIGGEST contract in the league for the game’s *far and away* best player.

Oilers should be way better.  

McDavid should also be making way more. Any other sport, man 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[Curt]

Great deal.  I love it.

[Brawndo]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I cannot oversell how crazy McDavid just is in general. The Tage deal is an astronomical steal, and when we add in another good value contract to the equation, that insane combined *value* is still being equaled by the BIGGEST contract in the league for the game’s *far and away* best player.

Oilers should be way better.  

McDavid should also be making way more. Any other sport, man 

Just wait until we add 97 as an UFA. 

 

[klos1963]

5 hours ago, msw2112 said:

The Sabres are taking some gambles on these deals, but they are worthy gambles.  You need to identify the young talent with leadership skills early on and get them locked up.  Not doing so cost them guys like Reinhart and Ullmark.  They will swing and miss on some of these deals, but if they hit on most of them (and so far Thompson and Samuelsson look like hits, and Cozens, in my opinion, will be a hit) the team will be in great shape for the foreseeable future.

To add, they did a "bridge" deal with Dahlin and, in hindsight, a longer-term deal would have been the better route.  They need to get him extended again sooner than later.  He's thriving under the current regime and if his recent open letter is to be believed, he wants to be in Buffalo. 

This is one of the better takes on the deal. It's a gamble, but likely a smart gamble. It is odd to reward someone with such a deal after a half season of high level play, but that's how the game is today. It will be a great deal if Cozens continues to improve and that's likely under Granato.

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm really shocked everyone thinks this is a great deal. Why? The first thing I thought was that is was a gross overpayment by over double. I've always seen him as a Girgensons replacement and a 3rd liner. Now he's making Tage Thompson money. Are we really saying he's an elite 2nd line center now?

Horvat at 8.5 seems like a much better deal.

He has already has passed Girgensons.  In 49 games he has 17 goals and 43points, Zemgus never hit that those either of those numbers in a full season.    He is doing this while breaking in two rookies on his line. 

On top of that he is our best faceoff center, our best two way center, he plays on the PP, he plays on the PK, and he is only 21. 

This is a team friendly deal if there was one.  

[Thorny]

Both the Tage and Dylan deals to me appeared to be fair under the context/scenario where both continued to play at the rate they did at time of signing. Ie if either levelled out at ~70 points per, the deals looked good. For this reason to me these deals are “no brainers” from KA’s point of view, if the players were willing to sigh them. 

If you trust your evaluation skills at all, *of course* you’d be happy to pay the guys you like what they’ve already proven to be worth (should it sustain, but again, you HAVE to take some risk or have no chance, anyways) - so the deals at their *baseline* already are reasonable, they don’t need to improve to live up to them, Adams already highlighted the players most deserving of being bet on, when you have to bet on someone, and locked them up to deals where the real real wiggle room can be found in outperforming them, there’s a much more apparent avenue there than the other way. 

[Thorny]

I don’t even include the Samuelsson deal because, like with the Tage deal, I’m comfortable with my analysis at the time: Kudos to KA being “right” on Samuelsson but shrewd evaluation or not, it still seems to have been needlessly risky at the time: as I said then, it’s points that pay and if we just look objectively at the season he’s had, even had we waited and signed him now, looking at his production, the numbers these guys take into negotiations, what these types of players make LT, we’d probably get him for a negligibly different deal this coming summer 

Id guess I’d say distinction is the Tage deal *reveals* Adams potential genius, whereas he “gets away” with what I’d still deem an odd decision at the time on Samuelsson *because of* his potential GM genius. He was right on MS I just don’t think he needed to be, that soon 

it bodes well - the better his evaluation skills are the quicker he’ll have information on players and assets before others attain said knowledge. You can get away with a lot if you are a great judge of talent and how it fits into *what you are building*

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[Crusader1969]

not going to read through the whole thread but I do need to know. 
did someone really say that Cozens is having a career year at 21 years of age??  🤦🏼‍♂️

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I don’t even include the Samuelsson deal because, like with the Tage deal, I’m comfortable with my analysis at the time: Kudos to KA being “right” on Samuelsson but shrewd evaluation or not, it still seems to have been needlessly risky at the time: as I said then, it’s points that pay and if we just look objectively at the season he’s had, even had we waited and signed him now, looking at his production, the numbers these guys take into negotiations, what these types of players make LT, we’d probably get him for a negligibly different deal this coming summer 

Id guess I’d say distinction is the Tage deal makes Adams look like a genius, whereas he “gets away” with what I’d still deem an odd decision at the time on Samuelsson *because of* his potential GM genius. He was right on MS I just don’t think he needed to be, that soon 

But, did signing Samuelsson & doing right by him help factor into Cozens accepting the deal he did?  (Don't know if it did or didn't, thus the question.)

These guys REALLY like being a part of what's being built here.  Does doing right by their teammates & seeing management walk the walk, not just talk it but actually live it, make these guys realize this is the right place for them to be & they want to do their part (w/in reason) to keep the band together?

Personally liked the Samuelsson deal.  He was the only player in the system when he signed the deal w/ his skill set.  (Pretty sure Lyubushkin hadn't yet been signed & he is a significantly different player still.)

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But, did signing Samuelsson & doing right by him help factor into Cozens accepting the deal he did?  (Don't know if it did or didn't, thus the question.)

These guys REALLY like being a part of what's being built here.  Does doing right by their teammates & seeing management walk the walk, not just talk it but actually live it, make these guys realize this is the right place for them to be & they want to do their part (w/in reason) to keep the band together?

Personally liked the Samuelsson deal.  He was the only player in the system when he signed the deal w/ his skill set.  (Pretty sure Lyubushkin hadn't yet been signed & he is a significantly different player still.)

I mean we may get to the point where any evaluation can be swept under the rug with “well, the team is good, any chance if we alter this variable everything changes ala butterfly effect? So I’m happy with it.” ... it’s just a far less interesting breeding ground for discussion. Ya, maybe paying Samuelsson before he earned it, when he still hasn’t done anything to prove he’d get any more upon signing now, help caused such a phenomenal environment it led to Cozens playing well and signing, sure. That’s not snark it’s just me saying “ok”. 

There’s no answer that can really be given or allow the discussion to move forward. We can’t know how the motivation of another random player was affected. I can see that we paid Samuelsson the money players who statistically perform better then him, still, make, but I can’t pretend to guess at or know the internal thinking of all the human beings in range 

If Dahlin DOESN’T sign for a bargain are we blaming the Samuelsson and Tage deals for leading to that thinking? It’s just a messy and murky avenue 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Thorny

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

As @IKnowPhysicspointed out yesterday both Peterka and Quinn should be primed for a breakout offensively soon.

[LGR4GM]

45 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I cannot oversell how crazy McDavid just is in general. The Tage deal is an astronomical steal, and when we add in another good value contract to the equation, that insane combined *value* is still being equaled by the BIGGEST contract in the league for the game’s *far and away* best player.

Oilers should be way better.  

McDavid should also be making way more. Any other sport, man 

Impo this is a bad comparison. McDavid signed his deal in 2017 when the cap was 75mil. So with inflation that same deal signed today is 13.695 million when accounting for inflation only. You'd have to use that number and then compare and you're still comparing the best player in hockey which is always dicey.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Impo this is a bad comparison. McDavid signed his deal in 2017 when the cap was 75mil. So with inflation that same deal signed today is 13.695 million when accounting for inflation only. You'd have to use that number and then compare and you're still comparing the best player in hockey which is always dicey.

I think the guy (me) is saying something just by pointing out that McDavid’s contract by way of value is even *close* to comparable to the value being had within two contracts the whole hockey world is saying represent a massive steal. The fact that the per point cost is in the same ballpark to the best player in the world is my point - McDavid provides not just exceptional play but insane contract value, too

[nfreeman]

28 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I don’t even include the Samuelsson deal because, like with the Tage deal, I’m comfortable with my analysis at the time: Kudos to KA being “right” on Samuelsson but shrewd evaluation or not, it still seems to have been needlessly risky at the time: as I said then, it’s points that pay and if we just look objectively at the season he’s had, even had we waited and signed him now, looking at his production, the numbers these guys take into negotiations, what these types of players make LT, we’d probably get him for a negligibly different deal this coming summer 

Id guess I’d say distinction is the Tage deal *reveals* Adams potential genius, whereas he “gets away” with what I’d still deem an odd decision at the time on Samuelsson *because of* his potential GM genius. He was right on MS I just don’t think he needed to be, that soon 

it bodes well - the better his evaluation skills are the quicker he’ll have information on players and assets before others attain said knowledge. You can get away with a lot if you are a great judge of talent and how it fits into *what you are building*

 

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But, did signing Samuelsson & doing right by him help factor into Cozens accepting the deal he did?  (Don't know if it did or didn't, thus the question.)

These guys REALLY like being a part of what's being built here.  Does doing right by their teammates & seeing management walk the walk, not just talk it but actually live it, make these guys realize this is the right place for them to be & they want to do their part (w/in reason) to keep the band together?

Personally liked the Samuelsson deal.  He was the only player in the system when he signed the deal w/ his skill set.  (Pretty sure Lyubushkin hadn't yet been signed & he is a significantly different player still.)

 

Taro beat me to it -- KA has, correctly IMHO, emphasized culture in building this team.  Locking up Muel, making him rich and making it clear that he was part of the core for the long term was the kind of move that makes everyone buy in.

This isn't fantasy hockey.  It's not just points multiplied by some dollar amount.  The guys have to buy in and have to want to be here.  It all matters.

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Just wait until we add 97 as an UFA. 

 

I could see it .. He was truly heartbroken when we didn't get  him which was exciting as a fan 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Buffalonill

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

 

Taro beat me to it -- KA has, correctly IMHO, emphasized culture in building this team.  Locking up Muel, making him rich and making it clear that he was part of the core for the long term was the kind of move that makes everyone buy in.

This isn't fantasy hockey.  It's not just points multiplied by some dollar amount.  The guys have to buy in and have to want to be here.  It all matters.

Yes, I know. I understand the argument

”Perhaps we can question the specifics of the Samuelsson deal, but a world where Kevyn Adams doesn’t reward his players early isn’t a world with the real Kevyn Adams at all.” That without him operating by those principles with Samuelsson we wouldn’t have got that same operation that led to Thompson being at a bargain.  I get it and it makes sense -

it’s just very boring. 

It’s a boring argument. Rather than an interesting discussion of how Adams’ particular set of skills results in oodles of positives with the trade off being a wonky evaluation here or there, it’s “no move is beyond question because of the sum total”.

low brow message board fodder

he paid a 5 point stay at home defender 4.5 per over a million years before he showed squat. If Samuelsson signed on the *open market* today he wouldn’t get that. It’s a wonky evaluation to pay that early regardless of the fact it looks like he probably will be right one day in a few years. Saying “well I can only assume it aided the culture”, supposing that, what, if Samuelsson was just playing here still but not YET signed we’d somehow be worse, other players would have lost out on something necessary is a massive “can’t prove a negative” stretch 

its “I have a rock that keeps away tigers, do you see any tigers around me right now?” Level stretch 

At least the “what do 5 point stay at home defenders get on the open market” discussion has a basis in provable data. The other discussion is just wading through the weeds. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Thorny

[Buffalonill]

3 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Wait... I saw you post the other day that the Sabres would make the playoffs.  You're losing your edge and there's a new kid in town!

    He needs to get some new material because i called cozens the  Girgensons 2.0 first ..

 

 

@LGR4GM  Was right The opposite happens with my predictions .

 

Peyton Krebs is the next Daniel Paille

 

[Marvin]

5 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

    He needs to get some new material because i called cozens the  Girgensons 2.0 first ..

 

 

@LGR4GM  Was right The opposite happens with my predictions .

 

Peyton Krebs is the next Daniel Paille

 

Keep 'em coming!  Anything helps!

[Thorny]

24 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

 

Taro beat me to it -- KA has, correctly IMHO, emphasized culture in building this team.  Locking up Muel, making him rich and making it clear that he was part of the core for the long term was the kind of move that makes everyone buy in.

This isn't fantasy hockey.  It's not just points multiplied by some dollar amount.  The guys have to buy in and have to want to be here.  It all matters.

But your explanation of the psyche of the players is beyond question, right?We can ONLY suppose “making Samuelsson rich” made other players buy in more, right? It can’t be that, others may look at his deal and say “oh, that guy is making way too much. I should too.” 

Im not saying that’s the case, not at all - but I’m not the guy slotting the unknown variables where I want them to because a negative can’t be proven. 

We do not know that Samuelsson being paid early helped culture. Why? You are just assuming. Its all well and good but it’s a purely “feel” based discussion. By the same token I could say “culture is most improved by players being shown they need to earn it.” Why not? We can say a team’s culture is appropriate, for them, regardless of how it presents itself if the results are good, right? There’s no one way. We are just looking at the results and then retroactively filling in the answers we want. It’s fine it’s just not interesting 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Yes, I know. I understand the argument

”Perhaps we can question the specifics of the Samuelsson deal, but a world where Kevyn Adams doesn’t reward his players early isn’t a world with the real Kevyn Adams at all.” That without him operating by those principles with Samuelsson we wouldn’t have got that same operation that led to Thompson being at a bargain.  I get it and it makes sense -

it’s just very boring. 

It’s a boring argument. Rather than an interesting discussion of how Adams’ particular set of skills results in oodles of positives with the trade off being a wonky evaluation here or there, it’s “no move is beyond question because of the sum total”.

low brow message board fodder

he paid a 5 point stay at home defender 4.5 per over a million years before he showed squat. If Samuelsson signed on the *open market* today he wouldn’t get that. It’s a wonky evaluation to pay that early regardless of the fact it looks like he probably will be right one day in a few years. Saying “well I can only assume it aided the culture”, supposing that, what, if Samuelsson was just playing here still but not YET signed we’d somehow be worse, other players would have lost out on something necessary is a massive “can’t prove a negative” stretch 

its “I have a rock that keeps away tigers, do you see any tigers around me right now?” Level stretch 

 

And defensive defensemen don't get paid on their PPG.  Jay McKee left town because he got an offer for $4 MM/yr.  Losing him was a huge blow.  Yes, Samuelsson hadn't established himself as an absolute fixture on the top pairing, but he certainly had shown signs he could fit in there.  Thought it was a smart deal at the time it was announced & haven't seen anything since to change that opinion.

Suggested a while back that defensive D contracts should be viewed on a $/minue basis rather than a $/point basis.  On that, the contract is a steal.  The intangibles of how it affects other players on this team's deals is simply icing on the cake.

[Digger]

Always late with my comments but it's a nice surprise coming home from work late.  I read through the thread though and lots of good comments and thoughts.

Cozens has taken the steps to improve this season that we were all hoping for.  I remember there was some debate in the off season if Cozens or Mittlestadt would step up this season to take the 2nd line center spot.  Cozens did and he has so much potential still which is the exciting part.  Good kid with great character and developing leadership skills.  Sticks up for his teammates and is tough enough to do it (especially when he fills more).  I'm glad we have him signed for 7 more years.  I wonder what the cost was for 8?  

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And defensive defensemen don't get paid on their PPG.  Jay McKee left town because he got an offer for $4 MM/yr.  Losing him was a huge blow.  Yes, Samuelsson hadn't established himself as an absolute fixture on the top pairing, but he certainly had shown signs he could fit in there.  Thought it was a smart deal at the time it was announced & haven't seen anything since to change that opinion.

Suggested a while back that defensive D contracts should be viewed on a $/minue basis rather than a $/point basis.  On that, the contract is a steal.  The intangibles of how it affects other players on this team's deals is simply icing on the cake.

Defensive D operate by their own rules re: avenues of earning, yes: but the fact they have their own, lower-salary niche where they are evaluated by a different set of rules in the first place is my point. The guys who score points go to the “guys who get paid” tier

The ones that don’t go to the “well, we have to measure their pay based on *something*“ tier.

My mention of points has always been to illustrate the tier he’s in, he was never a threat to break bank. The fact is we went ahead and paid him what the top, 5 point purely defensive d make before he established (and has yet to) as a top, 5 point defensive D. He is overpaid relative to his peers, the guys who score points aren’t even in this conversation.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Thorny

[JohninMinn.]

Dynasty