Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

10 for 10

The last Jedi, sure. 

But I thought nhl deals could only be 8 years? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Thorny said:

The last Jedi, sure. 

But I thought nhl deals could only be 8 years? 

Yep,  8 years for an internal player and 7 years for an external player, but 10 for 10 just sounds better.  10 x 8 just doesn't have the same ring to it.  

[Thorny]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yep,  8 years for an internal player and 7 years for an external player, but 10 for 10 just sounds better.  10 x 8 just doesn't have the same ring to it.  

When you’re right, you’re right 

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

The difference is Horvat's best years are behind him.

fify

[nfreeman]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

For me it’s more about the point at which the deal is signed re: experience, and how that player’s talent and aptitude has revealed itself so far: how sizeable the “bet” is. We already know Tage sorta came out of nowhere, the distance to ufa thing is more a technicality - Dahlin already took his “prove it” bridge, and proved it. We KNOW Dahlin is a Norris level guy when signing, Tage wasn’t close to that level in negotiations 

If players signed “security” deals after “proving it” there would be no existence of the “prove it” bridge. 

Fair, but also fair to point out that TT had half a season under his belt of star-level play when he signed, while this is really the first year that Dahlin has truly been elite (with admittedly many more hints of elite play earlier in his career than TT had prior to his ascension).

 

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So which is it? Is he accurately paid at 9.6 or is it a point for proven culture? I want to see you take a side so you can’t just argue the opposite or what I say all the time 😉

And don’t just say “the culture improved to the point where reasonable, fair deals can be signed”. That’s fine but it’s just base level competence. I more want to dial in on if you think Dahlin is underpaid at 9.6 or if that’s termed a fair deal. Because you are posting comps for why it fits but also saying it’ll look great on the GM. It can look “good” for both but if it’s under the umbrella of “fair deal” in your opinion I don’t count that as a steal indicative of great GM aptitude 

Both things can be true.  Dahlin can, as a cultural indicator and a credit to KA, forego $2MM per year and being the highest-paid Dman in the NHL -- which many in his position would insist on -- while still being fairly paid at $9.6MM as the 3rd-highest paid.

 

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Cozens is having a career year on the #1 scoring offense in the league

He's part of the reason they're the #1 scoring offense.  No one is carrying him.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

He's part of the reason they're the #1 scoring offense.  No one is carrying him.

Lies! 

 

I think there was a video of him piggybacking on Jack Quinn in the Bahamas (Im kidding this is a joke). 

[Doohickie]

47 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Hey there's only room for one negative  person here .

 

Wait... I saw you post the other day that the Sabres would make the playoffs.  You're losing your edge and there's a new kid in town!

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Fair, but also fair to point out that TT had half a season under his belt of star-level play when he signed, while this is really the first year that Dahlin has truly been elite (with admittedly many more hints of elite play earlier in his career than TT had prior to his ascension).

 

Both things can be true.  Dahlin can, as a cultural indicator and a credit to KA, forego $2MM per year and being the highest-paid Dman in the NHL -- which many in his position would insist on -- while still being fairly paid at $9.6MM as the 3rd-highest paid.

 

Half a season, yes, in a full season that wasn’t even point a game. When prior to that, there were questions about whether he’d even be an NHLer, long term. The body of work prior to deal is not a close comparison. This is why their deals won’t be in the same ballpark, right? 
 

But we may not even agree on that - you are indicating forgoing 2 million per, 21% of potential pay, as a non-negligible difference between what he “could/should” get and the level you say he might settle at deemed “fair.” This is a rather easy discussion as our differences in the interpretation of the numbers is clear. If we think Dahlin’s play is worthy of 11.something is an accurate reading of his value, and I do, as I think he’s the best dman in the nhl, I cannot think 2 million less to be “fair”. I’d call it a significant underpay. 
 

Cozens’ deal seems about right under the prism of the “paying early” deal. If Dahlin, a significantly better player, signing under the terms of it NOT being a pay early deal, only gets 2 million more than Cozens, how is that not an underpay? I don’t really see how you can say plus/minus 2 mil is negligible when it comes to “fair” when it would be the entire difference between Cozens and Dahlin at 7 and 9. 

[Second Line Center]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Are we really saying he's an elite 2nd line center now?
 

Yes.  I know them when I see them.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Wait... I saw you post the other day that the Sabres would make the playoffs.  You're losing your edge and there's a new kid in town!

But did he say what year they were going to make the playoffs?  

[Second Line Center]

The second I knew this kid was special and it was time to clean house and build around him:

 

 

[Rasmus_]

Congrats, what I loved coming into this season was that Cozens was out to prove that he had more to show offensively, and he's just done that.  Since the World Championships, he's been a possessed human being.  He's a hockey rink rat, and just wants to get better.  He's the best forward entering the zone/carrying the puck and our best face off centermen.  He's physical and responsible.  This is a GREAT deal for the Sabres and for Cozens, to know he's here and part of the core long term.   Congrats to Dylan!

[GASabresIUFAN]

FYI: Dylan is currently tied for 31st in NHL scoring by centers with guys like Dylan Larkin, Robert Thomas, Zegras, and Kuznetsov.  Thomas, 23, who is playing on the last year of his prior contract with the Blues, re-signed this past off-season for 8 years at 8.125 per season after putting up 77 pts (20 goals) last season.   His Buddy Kyrou, 24, signed an identical deal with the Blues  after a 75 pts season (27 goals) at age 23.  

I think both guys are pretty good comps for Cozens and we got him 2 years younger and for 1 mill less per season.  

[GoPuckYourself]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm really shocked everyone thinks this is a great deal. Why? The first thing I thought was that is was a gross overpayment by over double. I've always seen him as a Girgensons replacement and a 3rd liner. Now he's making Tage Thompson money. Are we really saying he's an elite 2nd line center now?

Horvat at 8.5 seems like a much better deal.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and I have no problem with this but I have to strongly disagree.

First off this is Bo Horvat's best season to date or will be he had 61 points in 2018-19, he's already 27 years old so his contract pays him until he's 35 years old. I like Horvat because he can lay the lumber and he's a leader but the Islanders definitely overpaid but they kind of had to after committing picks and prospects to him, he had all the leverage really.

Cozens is only 21 years old, in his 2nd full year as the starter and will (if he stays healthy) surpass all of Horvat's previous seasons again in year 2 and this kid is only getting better, I love his physical game, I truly think the sky's the limit for this kid and he's not even close to his ceiling yet imo but again if you don't agree that's cool I'm just giving you my take and by even as close to next year he will most likely have outplayed that contract.

[Doohickie]

The Hockey Guy's take. Cozens is the jumping off point. He talks about that contract and then jumps off from there, very complimentary. 

 

[mjd1001]

17 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and I have no problem with this but I have to strongly disagree.

First off this is Bo Horvat's best season to date or will be he had 61 points in 2018-19, he's already 27 years old so his contract pays him until he's 35 years old. I like Horvat because he can lay the lumber and he's a leader but the Islanders definitely overpaid but they kind of had to after committing picks and prospects to him, he had all the leverage really.

Cozens is only 21 years old, in his 2nd full year as the starter and will (if he stays healthy) surpass all of Horvat's previous seasons again in year 2 and this kid is only getting better, I love his physical game, I truly think the sky's the limit for this kid and he's not even close to his ceiling yet imo but again if you don't agree that's cool I'm just giving you my take and by even as close to next year he will most likely have outplayed that contract.

The Horvat deal is a problem because of his age.  There are excpetions, but forwards production usually peaks at age 25-28.  He is already there.  History, stats, analyitics....all point to a player at age 28 at best maintaining their current production level for 2-4 years, but then usually dropping off.   

If I'm giving a 7 year contract to a forward, the ideal one would be that carries him from about age 23-30.  The Cousins deal is close to that.  The Horvat contract taking him to his mid 30's....not ideal.

 

[nfreeman]

53 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Half a season, yes, in a full season that wasn’t even point a game. When prior to that, there were questions about whether he’d even be an NHLer, long term. The body of work prior to deal is not a close comparison. This is why their deals won’t be in the same ballpark, right? 
 

But we may not even agree on that - you are indicating forgoing 2 million per, 21% of potential pay, as a non-negligible difference between what he “could/should” get and the level you say he might settle at deemed “fair.” This is a rather easy discussion as our differences in the interpretation of the numbers is clear. If we think Dahlin’s play is worthy of 11.something is an accurate reading of his value, and I do, as I think he’s the best dman in the nhl, I cannot think 2 million less to be “fair”. I’d call it a significant underpay. 
 

Cozens’ deal seems about right under the prism of the “paying early” deal. If Dahlin, a significantly better player, signing under the terms of it NOT being a pay early deal, only gets 2 million more than Cozens, how is that not an underpay? I don’t really see how you can say plus/minus 2 mil is negligible when it comes to “fair” when it would be the entire difference between Cozens and Dahlin at 7 and 9. 

First bolded -- Dahlin's deal this summer will be a "pay early" deal relative to the 2 guys at the top (Doughty and Karlsson), as those guys got huge deals when they were already in their UFA years.  Dahlin will still be an RFA when his current deal expires.  Most of the other guys in the nines got their contracts at about the same point in their careers as Dahlin will be this summer.

2nd bolded -- I didn't say $2MM is negligible.  I didn't say anything close to that.  I said that $9.6MM is about $2MM less than what he would get if he got the very top of the market -- but that it would still make him the 3rd-highest paid Dman in the NHL and therefore would be fair.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

First bolded -- Dahlin's deal this summer will be a "pay early" deal relative to the 2 guys at the top (Doughty and Karlsson), as those guys got huge deals when they were already in their UFA years.  Dahlin will still be an RFA when his current deal expires.  Most of the other guys in the nines got their contracts at about the same point in their careers as Dahlin will be this summer.

2nd bolded -- I didn't say $2MM is negligible.  I didn't say anything close to that.  I said that $9.6MM is about $2MM less than what he would get if he got the very top of the market -- but that it would still make him the 3rd-highest paid Dman in the NHL and therefore would be fair.

When I say negligible I mean you clearly have a range laid out where either end of that 2 million falls within “reasonable” for his worth ie the 2 mil one way or the other doesn’t change your interpretation on whether it’s a fair deal or not 

I agree with the first bit - that’s why I see Dahlin’s deal being at least 10 - same principles but the deal being signed ~ 2 years later. I’ve always used them as a comparison, Thompson doesn’t present a great one under the context 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[Brawndo]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

It’s funny that the *one guy* they missed this trend on is the guy who’s going to get the most - I’ve mentioned a few times now that it hardly matters considering the other value deals, it’s just such an interesting discussion point to me because they are doing it with everyone but their best player.

Was it because Adams wasn’t fully in control yet when he bridged Dahlin? Or he hadn’t built up a confidence in him yet? Or was it Dahlin betting on himself?

This is a very valid question and I do not have a firm answer for it. There are a couple scenarios that were at play. Dahlin had just come off the worse season of His Career, the Sabres were at the beginning of another tear down and Dahlin and the team didn’t want to commit long term yet. 
 

I think the most logical explanation is the fact Sam Ventura had only been on the job for slightly over two months and had not established himself as a prominent voice in the front office as He and Adams were getting used to one another. 
 

Ventura was one of the first in the analytics community to realize the value of signing certain players to long term deals rather than bridging them off of their ELC. As Shayna Goldman pointed out, players best seasons tend to be immediately after their ELC, so paying for future performance rather than past performance is a better practice. Jeff Marek was talking about how He did this in Pittsburgh with John Marino.

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

For what? Actually asking 

 

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

This is a very valid question and I do not have a firm answer for it. There are a couple scenarios that were at play. Dahlin had just come off the worse season of His Career, the Sabres were at the beginning of another tear down and Dahlin and the team didn’t want to commit long term yet. 
 

I think the most logical explanation is the fact Sam Ventura had only been on the job for slightly over two months and had not established himself as a prominent voice in the front office as He and Adams were getting used to one another. 
 

Ventura was one of the first in the analytics community to realize the value of signing certain players to long term deals rather than bridging them off of their ELC. As Shayna Goldman pointed out, players best seasons tend to be immediately after their ELC, so paying for future performance rather than past performance is a better practice. Jeff Marek was talking about how He did this in Pittsburgh with John Marino.

 

Makes sense, thanks. 
 

I guess re/ Ventura my thought was that I thought paying off ELC was a common thought good practice now, that bridging your good players was seen as a mistake, on the whole. 

If he’s on the forefront there where others are NOT, all the better for us 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[Zamboni]

Dahlin. Assuming he signs for 7 or 8 years …

Give or take ….

”steal” anything under 9.4 mil per

”fair” anything from 9.5 to 11 per

”a lot” anything over 11.1 per

 

At least That’s how I see it 

 

[Claude Balls]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

"You get $7 million, and you get $7 million..."

I thought that was "you get $750,000, you get $750,000, you get $750,000"

Oh wait, that's just during the off-season.

[Carmel Corn]

Dylan's contract is very similar to Matt Boldy's, who I consider to be a good comparable.  Granted Boldy is a wing, but happy to see this deal get done.

[mjd1001]

3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Yes we do...coming from the NHL itself.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-preparing-teams-for-sharp-salary-cap-increase-over-next-three-seasons/

Or does that somehow not count in your eyes and you need a more "reliable" source?

 

As has been said, this is critical.

To compete for the cup, you FIRST have to get players good enough to get to the playoffs

The next part, getting over the top, having 'good' contracts that give you flexibility over who you are competing with is the next step after you get there.

So if those estimates hold, the NHL looks to have the cap increase by about 4-4.5% per year.  Both Cozens and Tage will be in the prime of their careers by the time they get to the mid-point of their deals (year 4) which will be in the 2026-2027 season.

So ask yourself this...how good will Cozens and Tage be in 4 years from now?  Because if the Cap trends show above are true, their deals will be about 7.5% of the cap at that point.  For comparison, Skinner's deal is/was over 10% of the cap at the mid point of his deal. Right now Barkov is 27 and getting paid 12.1% of the cap. Seb Aho is close to 10%. Rantannan is at over 11%. Marner, Tavares and Matthews are over 13 or 14%.  So, if Cozens and Tage don't get any better than they are today, the deals are still 'not bad', but if they keep getting better, they are ABSURD good deals.