Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

It's not without risk, but no contract is.

I think it's a great deal for the Sabres.

And I think Dahlin will sign for an AAV in the nines.

If Dahlin does sign for 9.something, at that point I’ll say we definitely seem to have somehow cultivated a situation where players (Or at least one, so it’d be demonstrably possible) want to be here to the extent they are taking discounts. Both the Thompson deal and Cozens deal are deals they took forgoing a bridge where they “bet on themself”, electing for long-term security sooner. Dahlin’s deal is well past that point, there’s no “lock him up early” discount to be had. Entirely different ballgame so we’ll see where it ends up 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[matter2003]

1 hour ago, freester said:

No evidence the cap is about to skyrocket. 

Yes we do...coming from the NHL itself.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/nhl-preparing-teams-for-sharp-salary-cap-increase-over-next-three-seasons/

Or does that somehow not count in your eyes and you need a more "reliable" source?

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by matter2003

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

We should be ecstatic if Dahlin's contract stays in the nines.  Karlsson's 11.5 and Doofy's 11.  The other top eight are all 9-10.  After this year, we'll be lucky to keep Dahlin for <10, and it'd be a miracle to get him <9.  Dahlin for 8.5 would get Adams GMOTY.

If we can get Dahlin at 9.75x8... oh my what a deal. 

[PASabreFan]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I wouldn’t call it trolling 

Some on this board are not covering themselves in glory today. It's the usual crowd. The personal attacks are dismaying.

[French Collection]

In three years time his pay will be at the low end for a 2C.

When his line mates improve he will put up some great numbers.

[DarthEbriate]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

not trolling at all, but ok. I figured a Cozens extension would be something like $3m per for 3-4 years. Until this season he's been an up and down bottom six guy. If I were to chart out all the #2 centers in the league I'm not sure he's in the top 2/3, let alone the $7M club.

Here's Cozens' competition in the NHL. 2nd line centers (C under 18 min/gm), https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2023/points/all/center?stats-season=2023&limits=gp-36-90,points-29-130,toi-0-18 

Sorted for points scored. Note some 1st line centers in this list

Tavares 51 pts
Hintz 47 pts (1C on his team)
Cozens 43 pts
Krejci 42 pts
Kadri 38 pts
Bergeron 38 pts (1C on his team)
Strome 26 pts (1C on his team)
Beniers 36 pts (1C on his team)

[Thorny]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

A couple of things. Cozens has not been up and down, he has steadily progressed each season he has played, this being his 3rd year. 

If you were to chart out the top 2 centers on every NHL team right now, I can guarantee you that Dylan Cozens would fall in the top 2/3. He is certainly better than 8 other teams 2nd center. 

3/4

sorry

(better than 8 would have him in top 75% not top 66.6%). Stupidly pedantic 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

3/4

sorry

hahaha I math good today. 

he is certainly better than 10.56 teams 2nd line center. 

[Thorny]

15 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Some on this board are not covering themselves in glory today. It's the usual crowd. The personal attacks are dismaying.

For me “trolling” has got to willfully be a pretty high bar, in the aim of doing our collective best to avoid the death knell that’s the echo chamber. 
 

In this specific case I didn’t personally think it was even close to the line, not in a thread where there are *analytical models* being posted that even say the deal is a slight overpay, in manner of speaking. Of course I subscribe to the theory and strategy it’s the right play to make from a good GM but there’s certainly lots of wiggle room in arguing the other side, imo 

- - - 
Random unrelated tangent - I occasionally fear people are sometimes afraid to not fall in line with (What has become a powerful) consensus, in that their takes may get called out later. 

All fans here, should be a safe space 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[sabrefanday1]

It is kinda funny how some are now actually questioning this contract (Or Tage's or Mule's) when I think we all recall the big error of not re-signing Briere, Peca, or more recently Sam when we should have, and clearly GMKA will not let that repeat itself. I for one am glad we are signing our good young talent at what are actually by today's standards bargain contracts. Obviously with the cap and spending priorities thinking ahead and resigning a team's young players is a must.  Giving older players huge contracts where they will be in their mid to late 30's towards the end of their contract is downright dangerous. We all have seen how that usually turns out. 

  No, GMKA is doing good work and while some still clamor for him to throw huge bucks at some over-priced goalie (and there are lots of them around), stay the course and lets try to develop two good young goalies  as we have started to develop good young players period. 

[Taro T]

45 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

They aren't contradictory at all. You have guys like Malkin, bakstrom, Tavares that cozens is now in the same money realm as (exceeds both malkin and bakstrom). It just seems like an insane gamble to me. He would have to double his production from last year at a minimum and then hold that throughout the deal for it to be worth it.

If he maintains for 7 years agreed. He's done it for 40 games out of a career so far. Players regress all the time after big one-off years.

Malkin & Tavares are 1st liners that play on the 2nd line often because their teams are better playing a lesser player on the wing of the top line.

Backstrom is a 1st liner that plays there quite a bit.

 

And to be concerned that a player (not named McDavid) can't double what he did at 20 years old seems rather skittish.  (Not the ideal word there, but wasn't coming up w/ a better one.)

[That Aud Smell]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

For me “trolling” has got to willfully be a pretty high bar, in the aim of doing our collective best to avoid the death knell that’s the echo chamber. 

In this specific case I didn’t personally think it was even close to the line, not in a thread where there are analytical models being posted that say the deal is a slight overpay, in manner of speaking. Of course I subscribe to the theory and strategy it’s the right play to make from a good GM but there’s certainly lots of wiggle room in arguing the other side, imo 

This is fair. And I'll *chest tap / my bad* for going overboard in calling some wild ass contrarian take an instance of trolling.

Still, though.

Part of what influenced my reaction was how the poster came all the way back from Bolivia to post the hottest of hot takes. Tsssssssssssssss.

Edited February 7, 2023 by That Aud Smell

[matter2003]

38 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

not trolling at all, but ok. I figured a Cozens extension would be something like $3m per for 3-4 years. Until this season he's been an up and down bottom six guy. If I were to chart out all the #2 centers in the league I'm not sure he's in the top 2/3, let alone the $7M club.

Did you take a time machine back to 2010 to come up with those numbers??

[PASabreFan]

3 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

This is fair. And I'll *chest tap / my bad* for going overboard in calling some wild ass contrarian take an instance of trolling.

Still, though.

Part of what influenced my reaction was how the poster came all the way back from Bolivia to post the hottest of hot takes. Tsssssssssssssss.

Woody changed his handle?

I am so lost.

[That Aud Smell]

18 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Some on this board are not covering themselves in glory today. It's the usual crowd. The personal attacks are dismaying.

[nfreeman]

22 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

The difference is Horvat has a body of work. Cozens is having a career year on the #1 scoring offense in the league while previously looking like a bit of a disappointment based his draft stock. I REALLY hope this proves to be a great contract, I'm just super skeptical that all of these kids just suddenly became elite level players overnight and that they'll be able to hold it.

This is a misuse of the term "career year" IMHO.  It's Cozens' 2nd full season!  He had 38 pts in 79 games in his 1st full season, on a really crappy team with a bottom-10 offense, and is now at a 75+-point pace with 2 rookies as linemates. 

He's also a heart-and-soul guy who burns to win, stands up for his teammates, has great speed and is showing more and more offensive skills.  And he took less than he could've gotten to commit long-term, right now, and focus on helping muscle this young team into the playoffs.

He's buy-his-jersey worthy, IMHO.

Winter is coming.

 

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Obviously it's impossible to predict how any contract is going to age, but this contract has the potential to be a great bargain for the Sabres.  Yes Dylan gets 49 million whether he succeeds or fails, but what in his character even hints that he doesn't want to continue to grow and improve?  Nothing. 

I also think KA made it clear that he has his core and wants to get that core signed, sealed and delivered.  I agree wholeheartedly.  Unlike the Thompson situation where the improvement came seemingly out of left field.  Cozens has improved dramatically each of his 3 seasons.  I honestly believe he'll easily be a pt a game player for the term of this deal, making this contract a bargain in hockey terms.

I do think it's interesting that the deal came in 42K under Thompson's annual cap hit.  I guess KA didn't want to pay his 2nd line center more than his 1st.

Also I think this indication that management and the players on this club are on the same page.  Hear me out.  We have seen numerous reports how close many of the young guys on this team are.  Someone mentioned earlier that Dylan left money on the table.  He possibly did, but I get the distinct impression that Tage, Dylan, Dahlin and others want to build something together and that if leaving a few $ on the table so that guys like Mitts or Joki can be kept another year or two, that's ok by them.  Also Dylan will be a UFA at 28.  Plenty of more $ to earn while still in his prime.  

Good post.  As to the bolded, I think Cozens was 100% on board with making less than TT, and for the same reason you mention.

 

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If Dahlin does sign for 9.something, at that point I’ll say we definitely seem to have somehow cultivated a situation where players (Or at least one, so it’d be demonstrably possible) want to be here to the extent they are taking discounts. Both the Thompson deal and Cozens deal are deals they took forgoing a bridge where they “bet on themself”, electing for long-term security sooner. Dahlin’s deal is well past that point, there’s no “lock him up early” discount to be had. Entirely different ballgame so we’ll see where it ends up 

But TT signed his deal at age 24, and Rasmus will be 23 this summer -- isn't that more or less the same distance to UFA?

Either way, I think you're right about the culture point being proven even more strongly if Rasmus signs in the nines.

NB that only 2 defensemen are making more than $9.5MM (Karlsson and Doughty), 4 making $9.5MM and 4 more making between $9MM and $9.25MM.  So if Rasmus gets $9.6MM, he'll be the 3rd-highest paid defenseman in the NHL.

[That Aud Smell]

2 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Woody changed his handle?

I am so lost.

As am I, now.

What didn't you understand?

[Taro T]

39 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s funny that the *one guy* they missed this trend on is the guy who’s going to get the most - I’ve mentioned a few times now that it hardly matters considering the other value deals, it’s just such an interesting discussion point to me because they are doing it with everyone but their best player.

Was it because Adams wasn’t fully in control yet when he bridged Dahlin? Or he hadn’t built up a confidence in him yet? Or was it Dahlin betting on himself?

Have said before, pretty sure it was simply a function of the contract being due during the covid era.  And with all the uncertainty that brought, the 2 sides couldn't find a LT deal that made sense to both sides.

And, you're right, it will cost them money in the LT but because they have several other reasonable to both sides deals they'll be able to afford his bankbreaking deal.

[DarthEbriate]

44 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

not trolling at all, but ok. I figured a Cozens extension would be something like $3m per for 3-4 years. Until this season he's been an up and down bottom six guy. If I were to chart out all the #2 centers in the league I'm not sure he's in the top 2/3, let alone the $7M club.

@Thorny and cooler heads prevailing are right, as is often the case.

@BullBuchanan, it was your first post that I can recall and you wanted to pay Cozens like Jay Beagle and in my defensiveness for the kid I figured you for a visitor trying to stir something. I apologize for offending you. Welcome to the 'Space.

[That Aud Smell]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

it was your first post that I can recall and you wanted to pay Cozens like Jay Beagle 

this legit made me laugh

[shrader]

12 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Malkin & Tavares are 1st liners that play on the 2nd line often because their teams are better playing a lesser player on the wing of the top line.

Backstrom is a 1st liner that plays there quite a bit.

 

And to be concerned that a player (not named McDavid) can't double what he did at 20 years old seems rather skittish.  (Not the ideal word there, but wasn't coming up w/ a better one.)

The problem with listing 3 players as model 2nd liners is that there are still 29 other teams out there.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

Or put another way... 

 

[BullBuchanan]

Yea, I guess I'm wrong here and that's cool. Nobody wants that to be the case more than me.

[PromoTheRobot]

22 minutes ago, sabrefanday1 said:

It is kinda funny how some are now actually questioning this contract (Or Tage's or Mule's) when I think we all recall the big error of not re-signing Briere, Peca, or more recently Sam when we should have, and clearly GMKA will not let that repeat itself. I for one am glad we are signing our good young talent at what are actually by today's standards bargain contracts. Obviously with the cap and spending priorities thinking ahead and resigning a team's young players is a must.  Giving older players huge contracts where they will be in their mid to late 30's towards the end of their contract is downright dangerous. We all have seen how that usually turns out. 

  No, GMKA is doing good work and while some still clamor for him to throw huge bucks at some over-priced goalie (and there are lots of them around), stay the course and lets try to develop two good young goalies  as we have started to develop good young players period. 

Everyone wants to be the one to say "I told you so."

[LGR4GM]

35 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Some on this board are not covering themselves in glory today. It's the usual crowd. The personal attacks are dismaying.

You accused everyone who had an issue with someone saying Kim and Terry having to deal with a major healthy issue was good for both the Sabres and Bills was guilty of "cancel culture" ... but sure personal attacks are dismaying. That is true. 

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Yea, I guess I'm wrong here and that's cool. Nobody wants that to be the case more than me.

To be fair I think you are wrong, but I don't know if you are wrong.