Five things I need to see to validate the Sabres being fully in on analytics

[inkman]

1)  Get Risto off the team.  He gets crushed every time he’s on the ice and brings down every Sabre he’s on the ice with

2) Cody Eakin never suits up for the Sabres again.  He replaced Sobotka as the worst forward in the NHL statistically.  It’s quite disturbing they got rid of the worst player and then someone found someone worse.  

3) Not drafting Owen Power - dmen are much trickier to evaluate with metrics but it would give me confidence if they took any of the top forwards or Hughes whose ceiling looks much higher than Power

4) Don’t give away assets to move Okposo. Just no reason for it unless they plan on bringing in $30 mill in players this off-season 

5) Don’t leave Asplund or Borgen unprotected in the expansion draft.  These are players you build with.  Good teams keep these players.  Bad ones let them walk for nothing. 

Edited July 21, 2021 by inkman

[Randall Flagg]

I don't care so much about risto hockey wise but in general this is a good list of stuff. Donny G got started on the Eakin thing early 

[Thorny]

8 hours ago, inkman said:

1)  Get Risto off the team.  He gets crushed every time he’s on the ice and brings down every Sabre he’s on the ice with

2) Cody Eakin never suits up for the Sabres again.  He replaced Sobotka as the worst forward in the NHL statistically.  It’s quite disturbing they got rid of the worst player and then someone found someone worse.  

3) Not drafting Owen Power - dmen are much trickier to evaluate with metrics but it would give me confidence if they took any of the top forwards or Hughes whose ceiling looks much higher than Power

4) Don’t give away assets to move Okposo. Just no reason for it unless they plan on bringing in $30 mill in players this off-season 

5) Don’t leave Asplund or Borgen unprotected in the expansion draft.  These are players you build with.  Good teams keep these players.  Bad ones let them walk for nothing. 

Nice list. 

I like Risto being #1 here, it checks a few boxes in terms of evaluating whether Adams is full of it. Not only the analytical aspect, but his substantial preaching about the most important thing being guys who want to be here 

Can’t judge Adams to be a bad GM purely on his decision there, of course. But if Risto suits up for this team to start next season I think it’s pretty clear there’s zero point listening to, and analyzing anything KA says 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Thorny

[SDS]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Nice list. 

I like Risto being #1 here, it checks a few boxes in terms of evaluating whether Adams is full of it. Not only the analytical aspect, but his substantial preaching about the most important thing being guys who want to be here 

Can’t judge Adams to be a bad GM purely on his decision there, of course. But if Risto suits up for this team to start next season I think it’s pretty clear there’s zero point listening to, and analyzing anything KA says 

And will he receive a swift kick in the nuts if the perceived return isn’t there and he moves him anyway? 

[DarthEbriate]

Fully agree on all points except 4. I like Okposo a bunch (and I can see Seattle loving him just like we do as a person and a player [if only he weren't concussion-prone and earned $2M/year]).

But if you can give Seattle a 6th to take Miller or the rights to Pilut, or a 5th to take Eakin or Okposo -- go for it. Give them that scale and say "Any of those vets, you get a pick." That goes in part with #5 because one of Asplund/Thompson/Bjork gets exposed and Asplund is XGMTM's guy, Thompson is tied to ROR-trade (TPeg/franchise pride), and Bjork is GM Sheevyn's guy. My guess is they expose Asplund... which is the wrong move based on talent level.

[Rasmus_]

9 hours ago, inkman said:

1)  Get Risto off the team.  He gets crushed every time he’s on the ice and brings down every Sabre he’s on the ice with

2) Cody Eakin never suits up for the Sabres again.  He replaced Sobotka as the worst forward in the NHL statistically.  It’s quite disturbing they got rid of the worst player and then someone found someone worse.  

3) Not drafting Owen Power - dmen are much trickier to evaluate with metrics but it would give me confidence if they took any of the top forwards or Hughes whose ceiling looks much higher than Power

4) Don’t give away assets to move Okposo. Just no reason for it unless they plan on bringing in $30 mill in players this off-season 

5) Don’t leave Asplund or Borgen unprotected in the expansion draft.  These are players you build with.  Good teams keep these players.  Bad ones let them walk for nothing. 

I love all of it.  I agree with everything here too.  I don't want Power #1 overall to begin with.

[Thorny]

22 minutes ago, SDS said:

And will he receive a swift kick in the nuts if the perceived return isn’t there and he moves him anyway? 

Not from me. Risto isn’t a good hockey player 

Maybe a football to the groin 

[Thorny]

- - - 

If KA believes he needs a particular environment to foster a winner, Risto fits the exact definition of what he was talking about, so considering how important it must then be for KA to move him, and considering risto’s aptitude, it shouldn’t be too hard to find a reasonable return 

[SDS]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

- - - 

If KA believes he needs a particular environment to foster a winner, Risto fits the exact definition of what he was talking about, so considering how important it must then be for KA to move him, and considering risto’s aptitude, it shouldn’t be too hard to find a reasonable return 

I am always skeptical of the fan assertion that a mystery team will give up exactly what we want to receive for the awful player we don’t want on our team.

[Thorny]

Just now, SDS said:

I am always skeptical of the fan assertion that a mystery team will give up exactly what we want to receive for the awful player we don’t want on our team.

Because if said player is such a detriment, the return required to move him goes down 

 

Adams clearly places a huge importance (based on what he says) in guys who want to be here. That’s not Risto. I’m not sure there’s a return out there, for that player, he could turn down considering how important he said the first thing is. 

[Thorny]

We aren’t talking Eichel, here. We are talking a player who makes everyone he plays with worse 

(Like, statistically. Quantifiably. Not that Eichel voodoo stuff)

Who passes out discouraging notes to his teammates before all games, “Good luck tonight. Just remember, life is terrible” 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

So just to be clear, you WANT them to be fully in on analytics? You think that's a good thing? 

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

So just to be clear, you WANT them to be fully in on analytics? You think that's a good thing? 

Why would it be bad?  Most of what a player does on the ice can be quantified; most of the rest can be found with evidence.  (I am not saying that everything useful about a player has been quantified.)  Using more analytics means we don't acquire Vladimir Sobotka, Cody Eakin,et al.

[kas23]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

So just to be clear, you WANT them to be fully in on analytics? You think that's a good thing? 

Nope. No team should be full on analytics and I don’t think there are any teams out there that are. They should be viewed as a tool to help guide decisions, not make decisions. For example, Risto. I mostly agree, but who is on the roster that will step in and eat all his minutes?

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Nope. No team should be full on analytics and I don’t think there are any teams out there that are. They should be viewed as a tool to help guide decisions, not make decisions. For example, Risto. I mostly agree, but who is on the roster that will step in and eat all his minutes?

No one man should have all that pooower

[IKnowPhysics]

16 hours ago, inkman said:

1)  Get Risto off the team.  He gets crushed every time he’s on the ice and brings down every Sabre he’s on the ice with

2) Cody Eakin never suits up for the Sabres again.  He replaced Sobotka as the worst forward in the NHL statistically.  It’s quite disturbing they got rid of the worst player and then someone found someone worse.  

3) Not drafting Owen Power - dmen are much trickier to evaluate with metrics but it would give me confidence if they took any of the top forwards or Hughes whose ceiling looks much higher than Power

4) Don’t give away assets to move Okposo. Just no reason for it unless they plan on bringing in $30 mill in players this off-season 

5) Don’t leave Asplund or Borgen unprotected in the expansion draft.  These are players you build with.  Good teams keep these players.  Bad ones let them walk for nothing. 

Demonstrate how each of these statements are directly supported by analytics such that if the Sabres didn't do them, it would constitute them not "being fully in on analytics."

[inkman]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

So just to be clear, you WANT them to be fully in on analytics? You think that's a good thing? 

Correct 

1 hour ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Demonstrate how each of these statements are directly supported by analytics such that if the Sabres didn't do them, it would constitute them not "being fully in on analytics."

Every player I mentioned has a statical quantification.  The good ones I want to keep, the bad ones not so much. 

[pi2000]

Agree w everything but #3.

Owen Power is a stud prospect.  He'll shore up a top 2 or 3 d spot for the next 15 years, no doubt.   You don't pass that up, especially inna weak draft.

[Hoss]

I‘d need some serious convincing that three or four have anything to do with analytics and aren’t just personal preferences

[pi2000]

46 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I‘d need some serious convincing that three or four have anything to do with analytics and aren’t just personal preferences

I don't see much offensive upside w Beniers.   Maybe a 15g, 20a guy at best.   Is that worthy of #1 overall 🤔

[PerreaultForever]

I have a hard time believing the Sabres would be stupid enough NOT to draft Power. But given the history of the last decade, it's possible. 

[Pimlach]

I don’t agree with 3.  I just can’t see his how not drafting Power means you used analytics.   I don’t understand why analytics is less effective for a defenseman.  
 

I don’t agree with 4.  Without knowing what assets we give up to dump Okposso there is not enough information to evaluate this move.  Again, analytics is not a factor and in general, clearing up cap space is important if we plan to improve the skill level on this team.  

[I-90 W]

After seeing analytics virtually destroy baseball, I struggle not to view it as a negative thing. I know that hockey is the polar opposite due to the speed of the game, but still. 

[Curt]

16 hours ago, kas23 said:

Nope. No team should be full on analytics and I don’t think there are any teams out there that are. They should be viewed as a tool to help guide decisions, not make decisions. For example, Risto. I mostly agree, but who is on the roster that will step in and eat all his minutes?

Without Risto, the RD depth chart is Jokiharju, Miller, Borgen.  That could change though.  It’s not that hard to find a D to play kind of poorly.

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I have a hard time believing the Sabres would be stupid enough NOT to draft Power. But given the history of the last decade, it's possible. 

Explain why Power is your best player in the draft?