Suitors for Reinhart?

[Thorny]

45 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

Reino has Sabres stink on him, is a UFA in 1 year, will turn 27 at the beginning of his next contract, is a slow skater in a league that gets faster every year and, I'd guess, would be rated lower by at least 28 NHL GMs than Jordan Staal was rated at the time of that trade (when Staal was 23 and still far away from UFA).

Reino is a good player that I'd like to keep, but top-10 picks are traded very rarely for a reason, and I don't see the Sabres getting one for him.  I suppose it's more likely if Reino signs an extension as part of the trade, but that is also pretty unusual, and I think Reino might be disinclined to do so in light of the horrorshow he will have just escaped.

 

I don't think the "sabres stink" always works that way. How often do we see players perform better once moved? I feel like teams will often look at our players and be like, "well that production was in that tire fire, I bet they do better elsewhere". We saw it with Hall. ROR. I don't think being on the Sabres is seen as a negative. Indeed with Sam, we've heard teams were impressed with how he responded, particularly. 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

Just now, Thorny said:

I don't think the "sabres stink" always works that way. How often do we see players perform better once moved? I feel like teams will often look at our players and be like, "well that was in that tire fire, I bet the do better elsewhere". We saw it with Hall. ROR. I don't think being on the Sabres is seen as a negative. Indeed with Sam, we've heard teams were impressed with how he responded, particularly. 

OK, but do you think they'll get a top-10 pick for him?

As for Hall and ROR, I don't think those examples support either side of the "Sabres stink" issue.  They don't support your side because the Sabres received lousy value in both cases.  They don't support my side because the lousy value wasn't due to Sabres stink IMHO -- it was because the Sabres had very few or no options (in Hall's case because of the NMC and in ROR's case because of the bonus deadline and JB's mishandling of the situation), so their trade partners had all the leverage.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

You're right.  What I meant was that he'll turn 27 at the start of the contract he signs at the beginning of his UFA period -- i.e. if he signs a 1-year deal now and then an extension with either the Sabres or his new team -- but of course that won't happen if he signs a long-term deal now.

 

Yes on the charity wager, assuming we'll be reasonable if there are multiple pieces involved in the trade.  $20 to the charity of the winner's choice?  And, for good karma, we both donate if he starts the season with the Sabres?

As for whether Staal is a fair comparable -- it's not a bad comparable, but I do think there is some daylight between them -- enough that I'm confident making the wager anyway.

I wonder if he will sign a one year deal. He might and I suppose he could. 

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I don't think the "sabres stink" always works that way. How often do we see players perform better once moved? I feel like teams will often look at our players and be like, "well that production was in that tire fire, I bet they do better elsewhere". We saw it with Hall. ROR. I don't think being on the Sabres is seen as a negative. Indeed with Sam, we've heard teams were impressed with how he responded, particularly. 

Also how often will other teams think a player will perform better once moved. Stink works in different ways. I bet there's some who think Reinhart is being held back by Buffalo. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

You're right.  What I meant was that he'll turn 27 at the start of the contract he signs at the beginning of his UFA period -- i.e. if he signs a 1-year deal now and then an extension with either the Sabres or his new team -- but of course that won't happen if he signs a long-term deal now.

 

Yes on the charity wager, assuming we'll be reasonable if there are multiple pieces involved in the trade.  $20 to the charity of the winner's choice?  And, for good karma, we both donate if he starts the season with the Sabres?

As for whether Staal is a fair comparable -- it's not a bad comparable, but I do think there is some daylight between them -- enough that I'm confident making the wager anyway.

I brought up earlier what we paid for ROR.  We gave 4 pieces to get him including 2 former mid level 1st (Zadorov and Grigorenko) Compher (31st overall) and a hi 2nd.  ROR was about a 60 pt player when we acquired him and Sam is slightly better and a better goal scorer.  ROR was better defensively and in the faceoff circle.  Both played center and wing.  They both were/are about the same age and each had/has a year of control left before being UFAs

The package we gave up is worth way more then a 10th overall pick.  

We will get 3 pieces for Sam if we trade him.

If I were the GM, I'd sit down with Sam and ask to sign a long-term deal to lead this club as the No. 1 center.  I'd then make a gentleman's agreement to trade him next summer if the team isn't substantially better this coming season and he still wants to leave.  I'd also guarantee him a Western destination.

[nfreeman]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I wonder if he will sign a one year deal. He might and I suppose he could. 

It's an interesting question.  The prudent move for him is to take $40MM or so if someone offers it, and someone probably will.  He just seemed so unhappy this season (to me, anyway, although I know many here disagreed) that it seems likely that he won't sign a long-term deal here, at least not this summer, and, if he's traded, that he'll want to take his time and evaluate the new situation before signing a long-term deal with the new team.

[Thorny]

17 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

OK, but do you think they'll get a top-10 pick for him?

As for Hall and ROR, I don't think those examples support either side of the "Sabres stink" issue.  They don't support your side because the Sabres received lousy value in both cases.  They don't support my side because the lousy value wasn't due to Sabres stink IMHO -- it was because the Sabres had very few or no options (in Hall's case because of the NMC and in ROR's case because of the bonus deadline and JB's mishandling of the situation), so their trade partners had all the leverage.

Those players were traded under poor circumstances, though. The reason they got lowwzsy returns (I don't think Hall's as a rental was lowwzezsy, actually) I don't believe to be down to a lesser than appropriate judgement of talent. I'm not saying the Sabres will get a great return for Sam, but I don't think "Sabres stink" is a thing - not in terms of that specifically affecting the value attributed to our players

The competence of the the individuals doing the trading is a bigger factor in the sub optimal returns. 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

It's an interesting question.  The prudent move for him is to take $40MM or so if someone offers it, and someone probably will.  He just seemed so unhappy this season (to me, anyway, although I know many here disagreed) that it seems likely that he won't sign a long-term deal here, at least not this summer, and, if he's traded, that he'll want to take his time and evaluate the new situation before signing a long-term deal with the new team.

He didn't play like he was unhappy.  He was unhappy talking to the media answering the same inane questions.  He certainly was unhappy about finishing last again, but when playing he was really excellent.  He gave maximum effort each night and his stats show a real pro committed to playing at the top of his ability.  It's why I want him back over Jack if I had to choose.

[nfreeman]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Those players were traded under poor circumstances, though. The reason they got lowsy returns (I don't think Hall's as a rental was lowsy, actually) I don't believe to be down to a lesser than appropriate judgement of talent. I'm not saying the Sabres will get a great return for Sam, but I don't think "Sabres stink" is a thing - not in terms of that specifically affecting the value attributed to our players

The competence of the the individuals doing the trading is a bigger factor in the sub optimal returns. 

Even in the GWN, sir, "lowsy" is not an accepted spelling.

 

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He didn't play like he was unhappy.  He was unhappy talking to the media answering the same inane questions.  He certainly was unhappy about finishing last again, but when playing he was really excellent.  He gave maximum effort each night and his stats show a real pro committed to playing at the top of his ability.  It's why I want him back over Jack if I had to choose.

To my eye he looked unhappy on the ice too.  Would you not be pretty surprised if he signed a long-term deal here this summer?  I agree that he played well and conducted himself like a professional, and I'd like him back too.

 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

 

Reino has Sabres stink on him, is a UFA in 1 year, will turn 27 at the beginning of his next contract, is a slow skater in a league that gets faster every year and, I'd guess, would be rated lower by at least 28 NHL GMs than Jordan Staal was rated at the time of that trade (when Staal was 23 and still far away from UFA).

Reino is a good player that I'd like to keep, but top-10 picks are traded very rarely for a reason, and I don't see the Sabres getting one for him.  I suppose it's more likely if Reino signs an extension as part of the trade, but that is also pretty unusual, and I think Reino might be disinclined to do so in light of the horrorshow he will have just escaped.

 

A lot of what you just said is wrong.

Sam turns 26 before next season, Staal turned 24 the offseason he was traded.

Staal was a year away from UFA, just like Reinhart is now, except Staal’s situation was worse because he was already signed to a deal that had one year remaining and ended in UFA.  A team at least has a chance to sign Sam long term.

EDIT:  I see that others have brought it up.  Disregard.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Curt

[GASabresIUFAN]

27 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Even in the GWN, sir, "lowsy" is not an accepted spelling.

 

To my eye he looked unhappy on the ice too.  Would you not be pretty surprised if he signed a long-term deal here this summer?  I agree that he played well and conducted himself like a professional, and I'd like him back too.

 

It's again like the ROR situation.  ROR signed an extension as soon as he got here.  I think that would be part of getting max value if we traded him.  I believe Sam might sign one if it included the conditions I mentioned earlier.  They way you put the gentleman's agreement in the contract is an immediate modified NTC.  This clause would allow Sam to choose say ten destinations the Sabres can trade him to.  

[Hoss]

4 hours ago, SabresVet said:

I have a hard time believing that UFAs with options are interested in signing with a rebuilding team like Buffalo.  KA would need to overpay and I'm not seeing how they want more bad contracts.

I also can't see them wanting veterans coming back unless it's a salary dump.  Because Terry saw what went down with ROR and doesn't want to repeat that experience and look bad again.

 

 

Hence “throw short-term money at.” They’re not going to want to be here but if you pay them then you never know what the response will be or what they hope to get out of free agency.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It's again like the ROR situation.  ROR signed an extension as soon as he got here.  I think that would be part of getting max value if we traded him.  I believe Sam might sign one if it included the conditions I mentioned earlier.  They way you put the gentleman's agreement in the contract is an immediate modified NTC.  This clause would allow Sam to choose say ten destinations the Sabres can trade him to.  

He was unhappy. I'm sure he isn't foolish enough to put himself in a situation where he loses control of his ability to move on in the near future. And I'm sure that he is savvy enough not to rely on a gentleman's agreement to the other party who then contractually has control. Sam is a good guy and an earnest player. He's not a bumpkin when it comes to the business side of the game. 

[Eleven]

54 minutes ago, JohnC said:

He's not a bumpkin when it comes to the business side of the game. 

Especially coming from that family.

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

He's not a bumpkin when it comes to the business side of the game. 

More importantly, neither is his agent.

[kas23]

3 hours ago, nfreeman said:

OK, but do you think they'll get a top-10 pick for him?

 

Here’s the thing. He has proven that he can be a very good 2C at worst (on an otherwise very bad team). Would someone be willing to trade a top 10 for a very good, young 2C? Depends. Obviously, whether it is 1-5 or pick 6-10. Would we have traded 8OA in 2017 (Casey) for a 25 year-old very good 2C? I would have to say absolutely. Plus, if the reports are to be believed, it sounds like GM around the league don’t have much faith in any one player outside the top 3-5 players.
 

The other wrinkle, and this might be holding up any potential trade, is whether Sam is willing to sign a longer term deal with the new team. If the “rental” label is removed, he fetches a higher return and certainly a top 5-10 pick in a “weak” draft. 

[JohnC]

42 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Especially coming from that family.

I agree with you. He's been around the business since he was a toddler. Pop's will provide good guidance along with his agent.  

[nfreeman]

25 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Here’s the thing. He has proven that he can be a very good 2C at worst (on an otherwise very bad team). Would someone be willing to trade a top 10 for a very good, young 2C? Depends. Obviously, whether it is 1-5 or pick 6-10. Would we have traded 8OA in 2017 (Casey) for a 25 year-old very good 2C? I would have to say absolutely. Plus, if the reports are to be believed, it sounds like GM around the league don’t have much faith in any one player outside the top 3-5 players.
 

The other wrinkle, and this might be holding up any potential trade, is whether Sam is willing to sign a longer term deal with the new team. If the “rental” label is removed, he fetches a higher return and certainly a top 5-10 pick in a “weak” draft. 

Well, it seems like a million years ago, but I and I think most here thought the sky was the limit on Middlestadt when he was drafted.  Reputable NHL writers were pretty high on him -- I think it was Corey Pronman who had him as the top prospect outside the NHL after the Sabres drafted him.  Would the fan base have been excited to trade him for, say, Tyler Toffoli, who had just turned 25 and was a solid #2C?  I kinda think we wouldn't have been that psyched about a trade like that.

[Eleven]

12 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, it seems like a million years ago, but I and I think most here thought the sky was the limit on Middlestadt when he was drafted.  Reputable NHL writers were pretty high on him -- I think it was Corey Pronman who had him as the top prospect outside the NHL after the Sabres drafted him.  Would the fan base have been excited to trade him for, say, Tyler Toffoli, who had just turned 25 and was a solid #2C?  I kinda think we wouldn't have been that psyched about a trade like that.

I would have.  

Edited July 7, 2021 by Eleven

[Digger]

1 hour ago, kas23 said:

Here’s the thing. He has proven that he can be a very good 2C at worst (on an otherwise very bad team). Would someone be willing to trade a top 10 for a very good, young 2C? Depends. Obviously, whether it is 1-5 or pick 6-10. Would we have traded 8OA in 2017 (Casey) for a 25 year-old very good 2C? I would have to say absolutely. Plus, if the reports are to be believed, it sounds like GM around the league don’t have much faith in any one player outside the top 3-5 players.
 

The other wrinkle, and this might be holding up any potential trade, is whether Sam is willing to sign a longer term deal with the new team. If the “rental” label is removed, he fetches a higher return and certainly a top 5-10 pick in a “weak” draft. 

Can someone confirm if he has arbitration rights this year?  I assume he does and that's why everyone keeps saying he will only sign a 1 year deal (through arbitration).  If no I think we would be able to get a multiyear deal out of him because there's no other option for him but to hold out (maybe an offer sheet - which could still be matched by the team or take the picks depending on the deal).

[Curt]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, it seems like a million years ago, but I and I think most here thought the sky was the limit on Middlestadt when he was drafted.  Reputable NHL writers were pretty high on him -- I think it was Corey Pronman who had him as the top prospect outside the NHL after the Sabres drafted him.  Would the fan base have been excited to trade him for, say, Tyler Toffoli, who had just turned 25 and was a solid #2C?  I kinda think we wouldn't have been that psyched about a trade like that.

Not sure if Pronman had him ranked as such, but if he did, it was in the 2018 offseason, a full year after Mitts was drafted and everyone went bonkers about his excellent U-20 tournament performance.  Just wanted to clarify that it was not immediately after Mitts being drafted.

[Doohickie]

Yes he's arbitration eligible.

[Digger]

A name popped up in the Seth Jones rumors that I found interesting as a potential trade for Sam.  Travis Konecny from the Flyers.  He hasn't done as well statistically as Sam but he's not far off and he's a real good character player that can play in the top 6.  Has played RW mostly (like Sam) but came into the league as a Center.  He's signed for 3 more years at $5.5M.

How about trading Reinhart and Risto for Koenecny and Nolan Patrick?  Nolan Patrick would be a project to see if he can get back on track.  I think that I would prefer the Flyers 1st round pick but I'm not sure that they will do that deal.

Konecny is a name to watch if he gets moved to Columbus for Seth Jones.  We could get him from Columbus as a piece for a Jack or Sam deal.

[Hoss]

5 minutes ago, Digger said:

A name popped up in the Seth Jones rumors that I found interesting as a potential trade for Sam.  Travis Konecny from the Flyers.  He hasn't done as well statistically as Sam but he's not far off and he's a real good character player that can play in the top 6.  Has played RW mostly (like Sam) but came into the league as a Center.  He's signed for 3 more years at $5.5M.

How about trading Reinhart and Risto for Koenecny and Nolan Patrick?  Nolan Patrick would be a project to see if he can get back on track.  I think that I would prefer the Flyers 1st round pick but I'm not sure that they will do that deal.

Konecny is a name to watch if he gets moved to Columbus for Seth Jones.  We could get him from Columbus as a piece for a Jack or Sam deal.

I’d need more than that for Reinhart. I’d need even more if I’m adding Risto. But I do have interest in Konecny.

[Digger]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

I’d need more than that for Reinhart. I’d need even more if I’m adding Risto. But I do have interest in Konecny.

If Sam will sign a long term deal with them then I agree.  Hopefully he will so our returns will be better.

[Hoss]

3 minutes ago, Digger said:

If Sam will sign a long term deal with them then I agree.  Hopefully he will so our returns will be better.

We should not deal him if this is a prerequisite that we can’t guarantee.