LGR4GM Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 Quote https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) Aaty Raty. Keeps sliding sliding sliding https://jhanhky.substack.com/p/draft-to-dev-aatu-raty Quote After averaging over two points per game in the Finnish U16 and U18 leagues, Räty’s production has fallen off against U20 and Liiga competition. Rather than being able to out-skate or out-muscle less mature opponents, Räty now struggles to acquire pucks and to get off the wall against similarly-built peers. Edited April 30, 2021 by LGR4GM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 3 hours ago, LGR4GM said: I learned that the 2022 draft is deeper and so acquiring an extra pick helps. You miss-understand what I wrote. We aren't swapping a 6th this year for one next year. I was saying you could trade a pick this year, let's say a 3rd and get that teams lower third and a pick next year like their 5th. I am not saying 6th this year for 6th next year I am saying 3rd this year for 3rd this year and 5th next year. My example we trade 65 for 85th + 5th rounder 2022 I was just joking. I understood everything you said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Flashsabre said: I was just joking. I understood everything you said. sorry, it's been a week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Thorny said: Is “stupid” today’s word of the day around here or something? Should we all start screaming? I'd be okay if I also never heard the phrase "recency bias" again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted May 1, 2021 Report Share Posted May 1, 2021 9 hours ago, LGR4GM said: Aaty Raty. Keeps sliding sliding sliding https://jhanhky.substack.com/p/draft-to-dev-aatu-raty Teams will regret it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew Amerk Posted May 1, 2021 Report Share Posted May 1, 2021 6 hours ago, LabattBlue said: I'd be okay if I also never heard the phrase "recency bias" again. Wouldn’t this itself be due to recency bias? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 Should be an Absolute blowout Guenther should have a huge game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crusader1969 Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, Buffalonill said: Should be an Absolute blowout Guenther should have a huge game I haven’t really been that impressed yet. You? I would pick Clarke before Guenther but of course I’m basing this on 4 periods of watching them so far bored and re -watched the USA - Can WJC game earlier today I really think Beniers should be the pick Brings everything the Sabres need more of him and Cozens together would be a nightmare for opposing Defencemen Both have the desire to battle in the corners, both have speed and talent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said: I haven’t really been that impressed yet. You? I would pick Clarke before Guenther but of course I’m basing this on 4 periods of watching them so far bored and re -watched the USA - Can WJC game earlier today I really think Beniers should be the pick Brings everything the Sabres need more of him and Cozens together would be a nightmare for opposing Defencemen Both have the desire to battle in the corners, both have speed and talent Guenther is hit or miss for me. Definitely behind Beniers and Eklund for me up front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 13 hours ago, Crusader1969 said: I haven’t really been that impressed yet. You? I would pick Clarke before Guenther but of course I’m basing this on 4 periods of watching them so far bored and re -watched the USA - Can WJC game earlier today I really think Beniers should be the pick Brings everything the Sabres need more of him and Cozens together would be a nightmare for opposing Defencemen Both have the desire to battle in the corners, both have speed and talent I think wasting a 1st-3rd overall pick on a jordan staal is a waste when you could get an 80 point winger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted May 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 41 minutes ago, Buffalonill said: I think wasting a 1st-3rd overall pick on a jordan staal is a waste when you could get an 80 point winger Jordan Staal seems below Beniers floor. Of course they are kids so anything can happen. I would just project him to the 60pt-80pt range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Jordan Staal seems below Beniers floor. Of course they are kids so anything can happen. I would just project him to the 60pt-80pt range. 55 minutes ago, Buffalonill said: I think wasting a 1st-3rd overall pick on a jordan staal is a waste when you could get an 80 point winger Who is the 80 point winger because Guenther is looking nothing like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Flashsabre said: Who is the 80 point winger because Guenther is looking nothing like that. I'd assume he means Guenther who I have some questions about but gotta wait for my draft guides and accompanying video now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 39 minutes ago, Flashsabre said: Who is the 80 point winger because Guenther is looking nothing like that. What is guenther looking like then ? You do realize he be the first overall pick if the WHL had a full season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 1 hour ago, LGR4GM said: Jordan Staal seems below Beniers floor. Of course they are kids so anything can happen. I would just project him to the 60pt-80pt range. The highest i see him going is 50 points but great on the defense side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, Buffalonill said: What is guenther looking like then ? You do realize he be the first overall pick if the WHL had a full season He has been looking like a passenger at the U18s. Not a guy that can drive a line. Canada has had an easy round robin and he has not dominated at all. He has been outshined by guys like Clarke, McTavish, Pinelli and the underagers like Wright and Bedard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Flashsabre said: He has been looking like a passenger at the U18s. Not a guy that can drive a line. Canada has had an easy round robin and he has not dominated at all. He has been outshined by guys like Clarke, McTavish, Pinelli and the underagers like Wright and Bedard. He had 24 points in 12 games thats madness for Edmonton what do you think he have if it was a full season? People made these same excuses about MacKinnon when he sucked at wjrs lol anyone remember those days? drouin is carrying MacKinnon on the mooseheads! Luckily the avs aren't the fans. outshined by underagers like Wright and Bedard. Really ? Shocked by the next generational talent. Next your going to say chibrikov is oushined by Michkov who will be the next ovechkin Edited May 2, 2021 by Buffalonill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crusader1969 Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 40 minutes ago, Flashsabre said: He has been looking like a passenger at the U18s. Not a guy that can drive a line. Canada has had an easy round robin and he has not dominated at all. He has been outshined by guys like Clarke, McTavish, Pinelli and the underagers like Wright and Bedard. I agree, nothing about what I’ve seen from Guenther is screaming first overall pick. that being said, you don’t want to give too much weight to a 2 week tournament We will see how he does in the medal round Ive liked Stillman on Canada, hard nosed , hit everyone and has offensive skills. Mctavich is definitely helping his draft stock. same with the Kid who’s taken Clarke’S job on PP1. Ottenger or something 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 56 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said: I agree, nothing about what I’ve seen from Guenther is screaming first overall pick. that being said, you don’t want to give too much weight to a 2 week tournament We will see how he does in the medal round Ive liked Stillman on Canada, hard nosed , hit everyone and has offensive skills. Mctavich is definitely helping his draft stock. same with the Kid who’s taken Clarke’S job on PP1. Ottenger or something Olen Zellweger. Just 5 days shy of being a 2022 draft pick. The exact player to target with our 3rd rounder. 1 hour ago, Buffalonill said: The highest i see him going is 50 points but great on the defense side. I think the skating and accurate shot get him over 50pts. He reminds me of faster ROR and I don't say that lightly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flashsabre Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Buffalonill said: He had 24 points in 12 games thats madness for Edmonton what do you think he have if it was a full season? People made these same excuses about MacKinnon when he sucked at wjrs lol anyone remember those days? drouin is carrying MacKinnon on the mooseheads! Luckily the avs aren't the fans. outshined by underagers like Wright and Bedard. Really ? Shocked by the next generational talent. Next your going to say chibrikov is oushined by Michkov who will be the next ovechkin Agree to disagree. I don’t want Guenther with a top pick. I think Beniers and Eklund offer more to this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
French Collection Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 This a small sample of his work but I do not see Guenther as a 1st overall choice. He’s had a few flashes of talent but he does not look like a go-to guy that I envision a #1 pick to be. Similar sample size with Beniers, but with tougher competition at the U20 and I liked him a lot more. Clarke is good but I don’t see him as a #1 either. He’s no Cale Makar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, French Collection said: This a small sample of his work but I do not see Guenther as a 1st overall choice. He’s had a few flashes of talent but he does not look like a go-to guy that I envision a #1 pick to be. Similar sample size with Beniers, but with tougher competition at the U20 and I liked him a lot more. Clarke is good but I don’t see him as a #1 either. He’s no Cale Makar. Nathan MacKinnon agrees Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerreaultForever Posted May 2, 2021 Report Share Posted May 2, 2021 3 hours ago, Flashsabre said: Agree to disagree. I don’t want Guenther with a top pick. I think Beniers and Eklund offer more to this team. meh. Nobody screams typical top pick to me. I still think this is the right time to trade down. Give somebody else that so called top pick in exchange for their lower 1st and whatever the going rate is for their desire. Multiple lower picks this year could yield really good results. It's a very non typical year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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