2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Why do you think L'heureux will be the steal of the draft? What about the player makes you think that?

I think he's the next Marchand, I really do. He lacks discipline but he's young. So a pest at first but eventually he could grow into that type of two way scorer as well. 

He has really good puck control skills and uses them to drive to the net. Not afraid of anything. Good passer and excellent wrist shot. Just like Marchand. Will go right to the dirty areas and would be a perfect complimentary player for some of our fast skilled guys. Exactly what we lack. At best Marchand. At worst Barnaby. 

55 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

And Boston didn’t trade down from #1 to draft him because they didn’t know he would be the player he turned out to be.  I have no problem with you liking the player but trading down from 1 for him is asinine.  Move the 2nd and a player to move up and get him.

That is of course another option, but we don't have all that many trade pieces. The details of any deal up or down are impossible to speculate on. I'm just saying this is my sleeper pick and a guy I'd love to get one way or the other. If we could land a top 5 guy AND him I'd certainly have no complaints. 

Edited April 29, 2021 by PerreaultForever

[PerreaultForever]

54 minutes ago, JohnC said:

With the higher pick we are more likely to come away with a top tier prospect. Moving down for a player that you consider a steal lessens the chances for getting the better prospect. If the player that you consider is the steal of the draft then why isn't he ranked higher by scouts that follow the prospects\? I'm not against using our extra picks to trade up for a prospect that we are interested after the first pick. But I'm not going to get cute and try to out-smart everyone else only to end up out-smarting oneself. 

I think he gets marked down because of his lack of discipline. He's hard to rank. 

[PerreaultForever]

32 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Imagine if Boston took Barzal, Connor and Chabot with those 3 first picks. They were the 3 players selected right after Debrusk, Sensyhyn and Zorbril went to Boston.🤣

 

Ya, no kidding. I've mentioned this one before when we were bitching about Sabres bad drafting. Bruins totally had the right idea loading picks in a very deep draft year but then totally blew it. I can see the DeBrusk pick. The old family lineage scouting bias strikes again, and Zoboril does play in their top 6 now but Senyshyn was a total bust. The players they passed on all so much better. 

Now if we hadn't picked Nylander................. 🙂

 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I think he gets marked down because of his lack of discipline. He's hard to rank. 

A prospect lacking discipline is a good reason to lower the ranking of that particular type of unruly player. Playing dumb doesn't add points to your ranking----it takes away points from your evaluation score.  

[Curt]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Runs? Sure he does.

Tom Wilson? Fine. I disagree but if he's that I'm fine with it. Also disagree he will be there round 2. 

I highly doubt he will be there in round 2.  Someone will take a chance on him in the back half of round 1.  I don’t think I would be in favor of trading down, but maybe Buffalo snags a late 1st in a trade.  I’d be all for taking him there.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

A prospect lacking discipline is a good reason to lower the ranking of that particular type of unruly player. Playing dumb doesn't add points to your ranking----it takes away points from your evaluation score.  

Exactly. Which is why he's going to be a steal for whoever gets him. 

Now sure, maybe he never grows up and never gets it, but with the proper development and coaching I think he will. 

Today's the NFL draft as I'm sure you know. There are countless examples of players who fell in the ranking for various issues and problems and then went on to great careers. Arguably you take a chance, but you have to remember these guys are young and young does stupid but also grows up. Usually. 

[Buffalonill]

3 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Exactly. Which is why he's going to be a steal for whoever gets him. 

Now sure, maybe he never grows up and never gets it, but with the proper development and coaching I think he will. 

Today's the NFL draft as I'm sure you know. There are countless examples of players who fell in the ranking for various issues and problems and then went on to great careers. Arguably you take a chance, but you have to remember these guys are young and young does stupid but also grows up. Usually. 

 

 You're comparing apples to oranges NFL draft is way different 

40 minutes ago, Curt said:

I highly doubt he will be there in round 2.  Someone will take a chance on him in the back half of round 1.  I don’t think I would be in favor of trading down, but maybe Buffalo snags a late 1st in a trade.  I’d be all for taking him there.

Just draft tyler boucher

[Buffalonill]

Nows not the time to trade late round picks to move up there's so many 1st ,2nd rounders that will be drafted in 3rd and 4th rounds in this years draft .

 

I

[Flashsabre]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Ya, no kidding. I've mentioned this one before when we were bitching about Sabres bad drafting. Bruins totally had the right idea loading picks in a very deep draft year but then totally blew it. I can see the DeBrusk pick. The old family lineage scouting bias strikes again, and Zoboril does play in their top 6 now but Senyshyn was a total bust. The players they passed on all so much better. 

Now if we hadn't picked Nylander................. 🙂

 

They would have 1-2 more Cups right now with those 3 and their window would be much bigger.

[LGR4GM]

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

William Eklund, also love hearing the calls in what I assume is Swedish. 

 

Also you will notice that his team runs the pp from below the goal line. Something more teams should do. 

[Thorny]

18 hours ago, JohnC said:

With the higher pick we are more likely to come away with a top tier prospect. Moving down for a player that you consider a steal lessens the chances for getting the better prospect. If the player that you consider is the steal of the draft then why isn't he ranked higher by scouts that follow the prospects\? I'm not against using our extra picks to trade up for a prospect that we are interested after the first pick. But I'm not going to get cute and try to out-smart everyone else only to end up out-smarting oneself. 

Trading down to pick up an extra asset can also be a good strategy. Sometimes getting cute is thinking that you CAN outsmart everyone, particularly in later rounds, when in reality it's mostly a craps shoot. By avoiding the hubris and actively realizing the chances of YOU identifying the player in the 4th round that "everyone missed" is slim, you can end up with a replacement draft pick with similar odds of hitting, and another asset. Especially in a later round, it could make sense to make that type of swap. 

- - - 

An interesting article on some of this thinking:

https://hockeyandstuff.weebly.com/chaces-blog/how-bad-has-trading-up-been

Edited April 30, 2021 by Thorny

[JohnC]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Trading down to pick up an extra asset can also be a good strategy. Sometimes getting cute is thinking that you CAN outsmart everyone, particularly in later rounds, when in reality it's mostly a craps shoot. By avoiding the hubris and actively realizing the chances of YOU identifying the player in the 4th round that "everyone missed" is slim, you can end up with a replacement draft pick with similar odds of hitting, and another asset. Especially in a later round, it could make sense to make that type of swap. 

- - - 

An interesting article on some of this thinking:

https://hockeyandstuff.weebly.com/chaces-blog/how-bad-has-trading-up-been

In my exchange Perrault he was advocating moving down from our high first round pick. I'm am adamantly opposed to that. Considering where we will be drafting my unyielding stance is that it is an untouchable pick. I'm not against draft maneuvering. We have a number of extra picks where we have the assets to do that. But belaboring a point (apologize for the redundancy) I'm not touching or playing games with the first pick unless it is to move up higher for a player that we covet. 

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

In my exchange Perrault he was advocating moving down from our high first round pick. I'm am adamantly opposed to that. Considering where we will be drafting my unyielding stance is that it is an untouchable pick. I'm not against draft maneuvering. We have a number of extra picks where we have the assets to do that. But belaboring a point (apologize for the redundancy) I'm not touching or playing games with the first pick unless it is to move up higher for a player that we covet. 

Right, my post wasn’t in opposition to yours, just using it as a launch pad for some potential ideas for those who are adamantly against trading down at all, a sentiment I’ve seen expressed before 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right, my post wasn’t in opposition to yours, just using it as a launch pad for some potential ideas for those who are adamantly against trading down at all, a sentiment I’ve seen expressed before 

You don't trade down in the first or second round (maybe a late 2nd I suppose you could). 

If we trade down in this trade (we won't) then it should be to acquire picks in the 2022 draft. IE we trade from 65 to 85 but we also get that teams 3rd or 4th rounder next season. 

[Flashsabre]

55 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You don't trade down in the first or second round (maybe a late 2nd I suppose you could). 

If we trade down in this trade (we won't) then it should be to acquire picks in the 2022 draft. IE we trade from 65 to 85 but we also get that teams 3rd or 4th rounder next season. 

I guess you learned nothing from Botts tried and true trading our 6th round pick to the Leafs for the following year’s 6th which was a much lower pick,🤪🤣

Edited April 30, 2021 by Flashsabre

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

I guess you learned nothing from Botts tried and true trading our 6th round pick to the Leafs for the following year’s 6th which was a much lower pick,🤪🤣

I learned that the 2022 draft is deeper and so acquiring an extra pick helps. You miss-understand what I wrote. We aren't swapping a 6th this year for one next year. I was saying you could trade a pick this year, let's say a 3rd and get that teams lower third and a pick next year like their 5th. 

I am not saying 6th this year for 6th next year

I am saying 3rd this year for 3rd this year and 5th next year. 

My example we trade 65 for 85th + 5th rounder 2022

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Right, my post wasn’t in opposition to yours, just using it as a launch pad for some potential ideas for those who are adamantly against trading down at all, a sentiment I’ve seen expressed before 

I have and will continue to be 100% against trading down in the first. This is not football which is the sentiment I have seen expressed more times than anything when it comes to the NHL draft. "hey why don't we trade from 5th overall down to 15th and pick up an extra 2nd rounder" no that's ***** stupid. 

Edited April 30, 2021 by LGR4GM

[Thorny]

Is “stupid” today’s word of the day around here or something? Should we all start screaming? 

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Is “stupid” today’s word of the day around here or something? Should we all start screaming? 

Would you prefer a synonym? Trading down before round 3 is idiotic, foolish, halfwitted, imprudent

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Would you prefer a synonym? Trading down before round 3 is idiotic, foolish, halfwitted, imprudent

Ya, I honestly feel this is a tad ham handed considering we have a poster advocating for that in this thread, in what appears to be in good faith 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya, I honestly feel this is a tad ham handed considering we have a poster advocating for that in this thread, in what appears to be in good faith 

The idea of trading out of Beniers or Guenther so you can get L'Heureux instead is an awful idea. It is predicated on the fact L'Heureux has skill but also hits/fights/attacks other players. You don't trade out of a top 1-4 pick to take a guy in the late teens or early 20's. That is in fact, an imprudent idea. 

Edited April 30, 2021 by LGR4GM
spelling

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The idea of trading out of Beniers or Guenther so you can get L'Heureux instead is an awful idea. It is predicated on the fact L'Heureux has skill but also hits/fights/attacks other players. You don't trade out of a top 1-4 pick to take a guy in the late teens or early 20's. That is in fact, an imprudent idea. 

Idiotic and half-witted seems an over the top way to describe it in the context of a friendly discussion. 

Everyone’s mileage may vary 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Idiotic and half-witted seems an over the top way to describe it in the context of a friendly discussion. 

Everyone’s mileage may vary 

Well considering you are the one who decided to make a big deal out of it, I didn't use those terms originally. I said the idea was stupid, which it is. I then gave you alternatives because you took offense. For the record I didn't even say that particular idea was stupid, I said trading down was and ignored that posters specific idea because I didn't feel the need to address it directly.

So to recap. I was not originally addressing the L'Heureux trade specifically. I was speaking in general terms.

I did not use the bolded terms originally but only did after you questioned the term stupid and then made a smartass comment about it. 

So in the end you brought us here. 

 

It would be like if someone was like "liger, not trading down in a weak draft is stupid" I can separate the concepts of the idea being stupid versus them calling me stupid. 

What a ***** waste of time this was. 

[LGR4GM]

Here is why trading down may not be the best idea in the first 2 rounds of the NHL draft. I hope that wording is acceptable. 

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

Quote

This chart focuses on the first two rounds. Similarly to the previous one, the success rate of each individual draft spot is shown in grey in the background. But this time, I decided to use a moving three-point average as the trend line (in blue). As you can see from here, the success rate drops massively from pick 25 to pick 31, and then it stays at a similar level for the entire second round. I’m not sure what’s the reason for that drop-off but it’s clear as day.

Another interesting thing I noticed while going through the data is that all top five picks during that span of 10 years made it to the NHL with at least 100 games played. This is not surprising because the top picks are scouted very heavily and teams will also give them every possible opportunity to succeed because they’ve spent such a valuable asset to get them. So even if they’re not good, they’ll probably get 100 NHL games just to make sure. Alexander Svitov (third overall by Tampa in 2001) trails the group with 179 NHL games.

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by LGR4GM