How do other teams find high quality players in the mid/late first rounds and later but the Sabres don't?

[matter2003]

I mean just look at some of the players in the league on other teams who have scored more than 70+ points that were drafted in the mid/late first rounds or after...

Matthew Barzal, Alex DeBrincat, David Pastrnak, Dylan Larkin, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, Sebastian Aho, Max Domi, Brayden Point(3rd round!), Jake Guentzel(3rd round!), Mark Stone(6th round!) etc...

I am sure i am missing some and there are a lot of others who are in the 17-25 goal range with 45-60 points...like Travis Konecny, Jakob Vrana, Alex Tuch, JT Miller, Phillip Danault etc who are never going to be stars but are fairly good players who will chip in with 45+ points over a season...

It seems all the Sabres do is draft guys like Zemgus Girgensons, Mikail Grigorenko, Brendan Lemieux, Joel Armia, JT Compher,(who might be the best forward of the bunch with 16 goals and 32 points this year)  or Defenseman that never pan out...other than Jake McCabe who i think is a solid 2nd pair Dman...but that's really about it...no 40+ point players and a bunch of junk they traded away...

Just so frustrating to see these other teams draft these studs/good players outside of the top of the draft but the Sabres never can seem to find them...where does the fault lie? Scouting? Coaching? Playing style? When can we actually find a guy who can play that isn't picked in the top 3??

 

I mean we are all excited about Reinhart and Eichel but these teams are finding guys in the mid/late first rounds who are putting up more points than either of them...then you have Leon Draisatl who just scored his 100th point and 47th goal last night...

Listening to the Instigators this morning and Rivet was very high on Olafsson even though it was 1 game...said he can play and he will make the team and contribute next year...I hope so, because we need someone that can score more than 18 points in 80 games from players drafted there...

Edited March 29, 2019 by matter2003

[matter2003]

It wasn't always like this...for about 7 years or so the Sabres did VERY well finding guys like this:

Pominville and Roy both in the 2nd round in 2001(Pominville over 700 points for his career and Roy over 500), Stafford in 2004(over 400 points), Afinigenov in 1997(395 points), MacArthur in 2003, Kotalik in 1998...

But since 2010?  Zemgus Girgensons might be the best...and that is a pretty terrible draft record over a 9 year period...that you couldn't even find ONE guy to contribute outside the top 10 players drafted each year...

 

Edited March 30, 2019 by matter2003

[PASabreFan]

Brayden Point is drafted by Buffalo. Zemgus by Tampa. Context matters.

[Neo]

chicken or egg.

Does the organization fail to find players, or do players fail to find an organization?

I’ve leaned toward the latter for over a year.

[matter2003]

21 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Brayden Point is drafted by Buffalo. Zemgus by Tampa. Context matters.

You honestly think Zemgus would be putting up 90 points?  C'mon man...let's be real...nobody in the history of the NHL is an 18 point player on one team and a 90 point player on another...that's the dumbest thing I've heard in a long time.

Edited March 30, 2019 by matter2003

[7+6=13]

Well let's see what comes of what we have in Rochester.  Some of what we're hoping to be our future are not high picks. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The last very good Sabres team was built with  later rd picks. From 1997 to 2007 we found players late, but in the later years we didn't give them a real opportunity and two, Wideman and Hejda, weren't signed or wouldn't sign with us. 

Afinogenov (3rd), Campbell (6th), Kotalik (6th), Miller (5th), Gaustad (8th) were mainstay on the post lockout teams.

After them Bryon (6th), Butler (4th), Gerbe (5th), Sekera (3rd), Kaleta (6th), MacArthur (3rd), Hejda (4th), Wideman (8th) were drafted from 2002 -2007.

Since 2008 and until the arrival of Ullmark, we have really missed almost completed in later rounds other then Foligno (4th and) McNabb (3rd) both from 2009.  This failure helped cause the Sabres downfall and lead to DR's dismissal.  If Jbot can reverse this trend with development of TM's Olofsson and Borgen plus his own guys like Laaksonen, Byron, Pekar and Weissbach we will begin to the organizational depth necessary to build a competitive franchise long-term.

[matter2003]

55 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The last very good Sabres team was built with  later rd picks. From 1997 to 2007 we found players late, but in the later years we didn't give them a real opportunity and two, Wideman and Hejda, weren't signed or wouldn't sign with us. 

Afinogenov (3rd), Campbell (6th), Kotalik (6th), Miller (5th), Gaustad (8th) were mainstay on the post lockout teams.

After them Bryon (6th), Butler (4th), Gerbe (5th), Sekera (3rd), Kaleta (6th), MacArthur (3rd), Hejda (4th), Wideman (8th) were drafted from 2002 -2007.

Since 2008 and until the arrival of Ullmark, we have really missed almost completed in later rounds other then Foligno (4th and) McNabb (3rd) both from 2009.  This failure helped cause the Sabres downfall and lead to DR's dismissal.  If Jbot can reverse this trend with development of TM's Olofsson and Borgen plus his own guys like Laaksonen, Byron, Pekar and Weissbach we will begin to the organizational depth necessary to build a competitive franchise long-term.

Right...we don't need to find 80 points scorers in the 2nd and later rounds necessarily, but we need to find at least a few 50-60 point players and a few 40-50 point players...we just can't have 10-20 point players or even worse, players that never make it to the NHL or only do so after we have traded them and given up on them...those are the players responsible for the secondary scoring that help win games when the top line is having an off night or when the defense breaks down and the top line needs help with a goal or two to pull out a high scoring game...

 

I mean we have Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner as the top 3 all at or above 20 goals and 60 points and then we have Dahlin and risto right around 40 a piece and then the next highest forward is Conor Sheary at 32 points...that is just not going to get it done. Not unless we have tremendous team defense like Dallas does who has only scored 198 goals(13 less than we have) but have only allowed 191 goals and will make the playoffs. You can't both not score many goals AND have bad team defense if you are expecting to be good. I mean realistically it seems like it should be a pretty simple fix...we need to score about half a goal more per game and allow half a goal less per game.  If we did that we would be in the playoffs because we would have a +30ish goal differential which would translate to probably 12 more wins or so over the course of the year...

Edited March 30, 2019 by matter2003

[Zamboni]

Sabres are not alone or anywhere near alone in “not hitting” on 2nd thru 6th round picks.

Odds are against ANY player beyond the first round ever playing one game in the NHL. Let alone have a career. Let alone have a productive long career. It’s just not commonplace.

[matter2003]

8 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Sabres are not alone or anywhere near alone in “not hitting” on 2nd thru 6th round picks.

Odds are against ANY player beyond the first round ever playing one game in the NHL. Let alone have a career. Let alone have a productive long career. It’s just not commonplace.

The difference between good teams an bad teams is that the good teams seem to at least get a few of these types of players every 8-10 years and the bad teams don't...I mean the Sabres have had really bad luck even getting players outside of the top 2 picks to develop into anything...who was the last Sabre player drafted at pick 3 or later that did anything for us?  Middlestadt?  Dude doesn't even have 30 points this year...

Edited March 30, 2019 by matter2003

[Zamboni]

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

The difference between good teams an bad teams is that the good teams seem to at least get a few of these types of players every 8-10 years and the bad teams don't...I mean the Sabres have had really bad luck even getting players outside of the top 2 picks to develop into anything...who was the last Sabre player drafted at pick 3 or later that did anything for us?  Middlestadt?  Dude doesn't even have 30 points this year...

Wow ... Mitts is a rookie. Relax. He’s way too talented to not develop into a very good player. You sound like those fans a few years ago who wrote off Reinhart because he didn’t come out and light up the lamp in his first year. Reinhart has developed and continues to develop nicely. 

And I don’t know what you mean by 3rd pick. Do you literally mean the 3rd  Sabres pick? Or the 3rd round pick?

[matter2003]

35 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Wow ... Mitts is a rookie. Relax. He’s way too talented to not develop into a very good player. You sound like those fans a few years ago who wrote off Reinhart because he didn’t come out and light up the lamp in his first year. Reinhart has developed and continues to develop nicely. 

And I don’t know what you mean by 3rd pick. Do you literally mean the 3rd  Sabres pick? Or the 3rd round pick?

I mean outside pick number 3 overall in the first round....

Reinhart was 2nd overall, Eichel was 2nd overall and Dahlin was 1st overall.

Yeah i know Mitts is a rookie but there are a lot of rookies who put up good numbers these days...except none seem to be on the Sabres.

[Zamboni]

Just for fun. I looked at the 3rd pick of our closest rival. The Toronto Maple Leafs. Let’s see how well they did with their 3rd pick in each draft since 2010. I left out 2017 and 2018 because it’s just too damn early to know if such a young player will be a decent player in the NHL until he develops more.

2010... Sondre Olden. 0 NHL games.

2011... Josh Leivo. 84 NHL games. Currently in the AHL with Vancouver.

2012... Dominic Toninato. 37 NHL games. Currently in the AHL with Colorado.

2013... Fabrice Herzog. 0 NHL games.

2014... JJ Piccinich. 0 NHL games.

2015... Jeremy Bracco. 0 NHL games.

2016... Carl Grundström. 0 NHL games. But to be fair. He’s still developing. 

 

So from my POV, Toronto’s 3rd pick in each draft listed aren’t anything to brag about. In fact it’s rather poor. And you could go thru the majority of the league and find similar results in the majority (over 16) teams. So to single out the Sabres as some oddity In poorly picking their 3rd player is false. Some teams drafted better, sure. But most teams are in a similar boat with “hitting” on draft picks past the 1st round. 

 

[matter2003]

6 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Just for fun. I looked at the 3rd pick of our closest rival. The Toronto Maple Leafs. Let’s see how well they did with their 3rd pick in each draft since 2010. I left out 2017 and 2018 because it’s just too damn early to know if such a young player will be a decent player in the NHL until he develops more.

2010... Sondre Olden. 0 NHL games.

2011... Josh Leivo. 84 NHL games. Currently in the AHL with Vancouver.

2012... Dominic Toninato. 37 NHL games. Currently in the AHL with Colorado.

2013... Fabrice Herzog. 0 NHL games.

2014... JJ Piccinich. 0 NHL games.

2015... Jeremy Bracco. 0 NHL games.

2016... Carl Grundström. 0 NHL games. But to be fair. He’s still developing. 

 

So from my POV, Toronto’s 3rd pick in each draft listed aren’t anything to brag about. In fact it’s rather poor. And you could go thru the majority of the league and find similar results in the majority (over 16) teams. So to single out the Sabres as some oddity In poorly picking their 3rd player is false. Some teams drafted better, sure. But most teams are in a similar boat with “hitting” on draft picks past the 1st round. 

 

 No...I'm saying the only time the Sabres seem to get a good player who develops and puts up big numbers is if they are the first or second overall pick in the first round.

Outside of Eichel, Reinhart and Dahlin in the draft what have the Sabres gotten in the past 9 or 10 years??

 

The Sabres have 3 first round picks this year...if they use all 3 they need to hit on 2 of them...no more getting nothing out of their mid round first rounders while teams beneath them draft stars.

Edited March 30, 2019 by matter2003

[PerreaultForever]

Good scouting and drafting is the obvious key to any team's success. the Sabres screwed up royally in 2006 when they let go Don Luce and much of their scouts. It was Luce that got us Mogilny, Afiniganov, Biron, Campbell and Pommer among others. Too soon to say on JBot's crew but we have not scouted well since. Oh and by the way, the Leafs hired Luce as a scout in 2015 so there you go, should have kept one of our own. 

[rakish]

Leivo is playing big minutes in Vancouver, Gundstrom is playing big minutes in LA. Jeremy Bracco leads the AHL in scoring.

[bob_sauve28]

You meet a nice young man who has years left to grow and you are left with a mystery of how much he will grow, how dedicated he is to the game, how many skills he can absorb etc. If anyone can look into the seeds of time and tell which seed with grow, which will wither then they will be a successful gm. 

 

So so much of this is decided between the gray area between a good educated guess and pure dumb luck. 

[PASabreFan]

12 hours ago, matter2003 said:

You honestly think Zemgus would be putting up 90 points?  C'mon man...let's be real...nobody in the history of the NHL is an 18 point player on one team and a 90 point player on another...that's the dumbest thing I've heard in a long time.

I can't believe you think Brayden Point would go 82 games in Buffalo without a point.

8 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

You meet a nice young man who has years left to grow and you are left with a mystery of how much he will grow, how dedicated he is to the game, how many skills he can absorb etc. If anyone can look into the seeds of time and tell which seed with grow, which will wither then they will be a successful gm. 

 

So so much of this is decided between the gray area between a good educated guess and pure dumb luck. 

That reminds me. How much psychological profiling do the Sabres do on prospective players, whether prospects or pros? Can they do a better job of predicting who's going to flame out or thrive in the current atmosphere (worst recent franchise in the league, crummy weather, Rust Belt city, etc.)?

[dudacek]

You’d have a hard time convincing me it’s not luck.

Boston thought Yuri Alexandrov was better than Brad Marchand. 

Los Angeles thought Oscar Miller and Thomas Hickey were better than Wayne Simmonds.

Dallas thought Alex Theriau, Alex Guptll, Patrick Nemeth and Jack Campbell were better than John Klingberg

Calgary thought Tyler Witherspoon, Sven Baerstchi and Markus Grandlund were better than Johnny Gaudreau

St. Louis thought Mackenzie McEachern, Sam Kurker and Jordan Schmaltz were better than Colton Parayko

Tampa thought Dominic Masin and Jonathan McLeod were better than Brayden Point.

Its hard to call them geniuses.

Edited March 30, 2019 by dudacek

[Weave]

53 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You’d have a hard time convincing me it’s not luck.

Boston thought Yuri Alexandrov was better than Brad Marchand. 

Los Angeles thought Oscar Miller and Thomas Hickey were better than Wayne Simmonds.

Dallas thought Alex Theriau, Alex Guptll, Patrick Nemeth and Jack Campbell were better than John Klingberg

Calgary thought Tyler Witherspoon, Sven Baerstchi and Markus Grandlund were better than Johnny Gaudreau

St. Louis thought Mackenzie McEachern, Sam Kurker and Jordan Schmaltz were better than Colton Parayko

Tampa thought Dominic Masin and Jonathan McLeod were better than Brayden Point.

Its hard to call them geniuses.

Yup.  The odds are so low luck has to be a major factor.

[matter2003]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

You’d have a hard time convincing me it’s not luck.

Boston thought Yuri Alexandrov was better than Brad Marchand. 

Los Angeles thought Oscar Miller and Thomas Hickey were better than Wayne Simmonds.

Dallas thought Alex Theriau, Alex Guptll, Patrick Nemeth and Jack Campbell were better than John Klingberg

Calgary thought Tyler Witherspoon, Sven Baerstchi and Markus Grandlund were better than Johnny Gaudreau

St. Louis thought Mackenzie McEachern, Sam Kurker and Jordan Schmaltz were better than Colton Parayko

Tampa thought Dominic Masin and Jonathan McLeod were better than Brayden Point.

Its hard to call them geniuses.

Isnt 10 years a long enough time that the Sabres should have some of this luck like almost every other team has had...sometimes multiple times during this timeframe...Chicago struck gold like 3 or 4 times with picks outside the top 10...

Edited March 30, 2019 by matter2003

[Kruppstahl]

My guess is that scouting across the league is roughly equal.  I'm not sure why it wouldn't be.

So then that's not the explanation, if my theory is correct.

I would look at the level above the scouting.  I highly doubt Botterill, specifically, is looking for players with the same attributes I would be looking for, other than "raw talent" which everyone wants in every player.

But as one example: this franchise drafted Joel Armia who is a classic Sabre prospect IMO.  He's never going to be much of a player and yet we thought he'd be great.  Even when he was still in Europe, pre-NHL, he was developing a lovely reputation as being a guy who only plays when he feels like it and takes shifts, periods, games off.

We seem to have a knack for finding those guys.

So perhaps some of the problem lies in a lack of an "institutional goal" to find players at lower levels who are known for their hustle and competitiveness.  I think that is important in the NHL, which is mostly a "hustle" game most nights.

Hustling talent beats hustling lack of talent, but hustling OK talent beats lazy prima donnas all the time.

 

 

 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Isnt 10 years a long enough time that the Sabres should have some of this luck like almost every other team has had?

You would think, although teams like the Canucks might dispute the second half of that

 

Best five players outside the top of the draft, by team, past 10 years in our division:

Boston: Pastrnak, Hamilton, McAvoy, Debrusk, Carlo

Buffalo: Ristolainen, Myers, Ennis,  Mittelstadt, McCabe

Detroit: Larkin, Athanasiou, Tatar, Nyquist, Mantha, 

Florida: Trochek, Matheson, Kulikov, Bjugstad, Donskoi

Montreal: Gallagher, Sergachev, Beaulieu, Lehkonen, Mete

Ottawa: Karlsson, Chabot, Zibenijad, Silfverberg, Ceci, 

Tampa: Kucherov, Point, Vasilevskiy, Palat, Namestnikov

Toronto: Kadri, Nylander, Dermott, Brown, Johnsson.

 

Kucherovs are pretty unique and Pastrnaks don’t happen that often.

Also, this is a work in progress. Last year, Chabot wasn’t Chabot!. Five years from now Casey Mittelstadt might be Larkin or he might be Cody Hodgson.

Edited March 30, 2019 by dudacek

[CallawaySabres]

This is exactly why this team is so terrible right now. They have zero depth and no players that turn into top 6 talent outside of the 1st round.

[Doohickie]

18 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

Well let's see what comes of what we have in Rochester.  Some of what we're hoping to be our future are not high picks. 

Perhaps the problem the last several years has been:

1.  With the gutting of the Sabres to tank for picks, too many of those picks have been rushed up to the NHL.

2.  The Rochester Americans were neglected as a platform for development, so the players with potential never realized it.

So it isn't not making the right picks, it's destroying the potential that was drafted.