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GDT Colorado Avs vs Buffalo Sabres 10-11-2018 at 7pm


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13 minutes ago, LTS said:

Larsson being in the lineup should not surprise you especially since he's inserted for Elie, a waiver wire pickup.

I generally agree with the tenor of your post, except for this.  It doesn't matter how a player is acquired, what matters is how they play and what they bring.  Elie was doing very well, I thought, and the only thing Larsson brings is face-offs.  

This move really does shine a light on HCPH, again, which, it looked like we were happy to accept the past two games.  Put simply, if it's working, don't mess with it, yet, here we are pulling line changes a la Disco Dan.

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23 minutes ago, inkman said:

You ain't seen nuttin til yer down on a Hutton 

among my very favourite memories of watching the tee-vee when i was younger: seeing/hearing Mr. Food close his segment on doing perfect blueberry (??) muffins by declaring: "You ain't seen nothin, 'til you're down on the muffin! ... Ooooo it's so good."

However, a quick internet search has me wondering whether that's an imagined memory.

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1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

among my very favourite memories of watching the tee-vee when i was younger: seeing/hearing Mr. Food close his segment on doing perfect blueberry (??) muffins by declaring: "You ain't seen nothin, 'til you're down on the muffin! ... Ooooo it's so good."

However, a quick internet search has me wondering whether that's an imagined memory.

I've heard that from my wife.

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2 hours ago, ubkev said:

It looks like a logo that a low budget, skid row movie that couldn't get the NHL licensing would use. And all the hockey scenes would be wrong, and there would be a lame cameo from Jonathan Cheechoo or some crap.

I feel like this movie would also have a way-too-long slow dancing scene it in as well. 

Edited by Andrew Amerk
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2 minutes ago, ... said:

I generally agree with the tenor of your post, except for this.  It doesn't matter how a player is acquired, what matters is how they play and what they bring.  Elie was doing very well, I thought, and the only thing Larsson brings is face-offs.  

This move really does shine a light on HCPH, again, which, it looked like we were happy to accept the past two games.  Put simply, if it's working, don't mess with it, yet, here we are pulling line changes a la Disco Dan.

Do you really believe that having Elie in the lineup is what made the team work?

The fact that Elie is a waiver wire pickup and has been with the team all of about 10 days does matter. He won't have the same knowledge of the system or as much chemistry with players. He is clearly someone another team didn't want on their starting roster. Larsson isn't being inserted for Reinhart and as such that's what makes it a difference.

Elie may prove to be a better player than Larsson.  But in the world of managing hockey assets, Larsson plays.  This is not a Phil Housley thing.  This is how rosters are handled in the NHL by every GM and coach who have come before and those who will succeed them. 

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Larry could be better than Elie and is almost certainly above him (and behind Sobotka, who will take Larsson's place when healthy) on the depth chart, which is fine. I don't really want him in the lineup either, which sucks because I think he had a chance at being a nice player before his arm blew up. He hasn't been able to shoot or handle the puck or pass since. 

So in general, I think Larry is the 13th forward and since we have an injury, he's the 12th. 

Later on in the season, if Nylander/Asplund are dominating, they'll be in the lineup and guys like Larry pushed further away. 

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20 minutes ago, LTS said:

Do you really believe that having Elie in the lineup is what made the team work?

The fact that Elie is a waiver wire pickup and has been with the team all of about 10 days does matter. He won't have the same knowledge of the system or as much chemistry with players. He is clearly someone another team didn't want on their starting roster. Larsson isn't being inserted for Reinhart and as such that's what makes it a difference.

Elie may prove to be a better player than Larsson.  But in the world of managing hockey assets, Larsson plays.  This is not a Phil Housley thing.  This is how rosters are handled in the NHL by every GM and coach who have come before and those who will succeed them. 

None of this matters.  Elie was put in and they played better than they have played in years.  Is Elie the sole reason for that?  Of course not, can we not be slightly more sophisticated than this?  If the line-up is winning games, handily, you don't change them.  This is the same argument for not starting the backup even though it's his turn on the calendar.  

Why are there stats that follow when such-and-such a player is on a line or on the ice the team does X?  If old school coaching practices matter more, then what's the use of stats like that?

I'd like to see a good  reason for starting Larsson other than he's been around and can win half of his faceoffs.  Seems to me they did better without him (and with Elie in the lineup) and faceoffs weren't a particular issue in the last two wins.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It would be soooo sweet to get a win tonight

Same here. I know it's early but this is a big game for the team to make the statement "we're not Sabres form last year". Last year, anytime a "big" game came up they came out flat and lifeless and wouldn't show any push until the 3rd when it was too late.

I'm really hoping for the opposite of that. Last year it took them 12 games to hit 3 wins, I'd like to see them hit that mark in 4 games.

Go Sabres.

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41 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

He won 55% of his faceoffs last season, and the Sabres are 20th in the league and well under 50% this season. Maybe Phil cares about such stuff.

Phil has him on the wing.    He was also a -30, and -10 TRpm.    He was an anchor last season.   They only reason he's playing is because Phil is too nice and wants to give veterans a chance to play.

 

46 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Must win.

 

In his 2GP, Remi was last in 5v5 CF% by a wide margin and last in 5v5 HDGF%.  Housley's actions continue to correlate to data, even with small sample sizes.

Who leads the team in 5v5 CF% and is second in 5v5 HDGF%?  You guessed it, Frank Stallone, er Nathan Beaulieu.

Alternative facts.    In my expert opinion (I have zero proof),  Beaulieu's CF% is artificially inflated by favorable offensive zone starts and easy matchups.    

Edited by pi2000
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1 minute ago, ... said:

None of this matters.  Elie was put in and they played better than they have played in years.  Is Elie the sole reason for that?  Of course not, can we not be slightly more sophisticated than this?  If the line-up is winning games, handily, you don't change them.  This is the same argument for not starting the backup even though it's his turn on the calendar.  

Why are there stats that follow when such-and-such a player is on a line or on the ice the team does X?  If old school coaching practices matter more, then what's the use of stats like that?

I'd like to see a good  reason for starting Larsson other than he's been around and can win half of his faceoffs.  Seems to me they did better without him (and with Elie in the lineup) and faceoffs weren't a particular issue in the last two wins.

 

 

Statistics never account for the concept of managing assets and contracts.  They help guide the decision that should be made, but there are times when the "wrong" player needs to play in a game because of a greater benefit to the organization than winning that one game (or winning by more). It's how the business side impacts the game.

 

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1 minute ago, LTS said:

Statistics never account for the concept of managing assets and contracts.  They help guide the decision that should be made, but there are times when the "wrong" player needs to play in a game because of a greater benefit to the organization than winning that one game (or winning by more). It's how the business side impacts the game.

So, playing Larsson and losing is more important to the team than not playing Larsson and winning?  ?

 

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1 minute ago, ... said:

So, playing Larsson and losing is more important to the team than not playing Larsson and winning?  ?

 

Yes. 

You can continue to ignore the body of evidence that is the history of how the NHL operates or not.  It doesn't matter to me.  This is not my opinion, this is what happens. The business aspects of handling roster assets often interfere with what the "BEST" line up is on the ice.

Arguing with me will not change that.

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2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Sports can be amazing. I was going to ask which goalie you think will get the 56, but obviously you mean Hutton. Contrast with the conventional wisdom just after last season, when the thought was that Ullmark would get something like 60 games and they'd need a solid veteran backup for the rest. I wouldn't rule that out entirely based on Hutton's very impressive start. But clearly it's more than that. There's a reason he got the starting job. (I wasn't paying attention in preseason, so I don't know if that was Ullmark disappointing or Hutton being lights out or some combination.)

You sure the conventional wisdom was that Ullmark would be the clear #1 this season?  Seems to me there was speculation that the Sabres might try to go that direction but that  it was very risky and that most here thought the Sabres would bring in at worst a guy to evenly split time with Ullmark but more likely would bring in a vet to start ahead of him while he acclimated to the NHL.

There was a lot of speculation the Sabres would try to bring in 1 of the Caps goalies or Rinne, none of which suggests Ullmark would get 60 games.

Edited by Taro T
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4 minutes ago, LTS said:

Yes. 

You can continue to ignore the body of evidence that is the history of how the NHL operates or not.  It doesn't matter to me.  This is not my opinion, this is what happens. The business aspects of handling roster assets often interfere with what the "BEST" line up is on the ice.

 Arguing with me will not change that.

Your overall point is something I agree with, though Larsson over Elie organizationally doesn't really fit into it IMO. Larsson over Nylander in Rochester does. 

To be clear, I don't care that Larsson is in over Elie. I don't think it's an example of what you're talking about though. I think Phil likes Larsson a bit better than Elie as a hockey player and is doing what he thinks gives his team the best chance to win tonight. 

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16 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Phil has him on the wing.    He was also a -30, and -10 TRpm.    He was an anchor last season.   They only reason he's playing is because Phil is too nice and wants to give veterans a chance to play.

He can take faceoffs when playing wing. Also: That seems like an unsubstantiated take.

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