Which Sabres will take a big step BACK this season?

[Ho-Chi-Sock]

There's been too much optimism around here. We need to get this place back to the "Because Buffalo" hot takes we all know and love.

 

If Girgensons is here for another year, he'll be checked out moreso than Kane was just before the deadline. Same with Baloo, assuming either of them make the roster.

[erickompositör72]

The good news is that Beaulieu's and Girgs's chances of making the starting lineup are becoming less and less, and we're not even aware of JBot's plans for the remainder of the off-season.

 

Sorry to contaminate your thread with more optimism ?

[Hoss]

The simple answer to this is nobody. They've had so few good players that there's only a handful of actual candidates. Girgensons and Beaulieu are not included because, well, they're already terrible.

[Randall Flagg]

I think Sam will step back from his second half last year, but will be better on balance for the whole season, so I guess he doesn't count. 

I think Mittelstadt will be worse with the stipulation that I don't think he'll pace for 68 points, but that's another dumb literal interpretation. 

I guess it's possible that Scandella and Risto perform worse but there's no compelling reason to believe it'll happen. 

Jack could fall behind if Phil gives him a bunch of defensive minutes to help replace the loss of Ryan but I don't think Phil will do that, and Jack already faces pretty tough competition, so I see him as the usual baseline of 70 points with potential for more, I don't think he will stay healthy and disappoint w.r.t. the seasons he's already put up. 

Kyle could rebound, but the floor could also completely drop out. He largely gets talked about the same way Moulson did just before Matt's last terrible full season here. But he's younger and had more to give than Matt did. He should hopefully be healthy. 

 

[R_Dudley]

8 minutes ago, Hoss said:

The simple answer to this is nobody. They've had so few good players that there's only a handful of actual candidates. Girgensons and Beaulieu are not included because, well, they're already terrible.

Yep, you beat me to it. Any farther back and some of these guys would fall out of the league...

[Hoss]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think Sam will step back from his second half last year, but will be better on balance for the whole season, so I guess he doesn't count. 

I think Mittelstadt will be worse with the stipulation that I don't think he'll pace for 68 points, but that's another dumb literal interpretation. 

I guess it's possible that Scandella and Risto perform worse but there's no compelling reason to believe it'll happen. 

Jack could fall behind if Phil gives him a bunch of defensive minutes to help replace the loss of Ryan but I don't think Phil will do that, and Jack already faces pretty tough competition, so I see him as the usual baseline of 70 points with potential for more, I don't think he will stay healthy and disappoint w.r.t. the seasons he's already put up. 

Kyle could rebound, but the floor could also completely drop out. He largely gets talked about the same way Moulson did just before Matt's last terrible full season here. But he's younger and had more to give than Matt did. He should hopefully be healthy. 

 

If this is our expectation for Eichel then it's a disaster. Luckily, it's not. He was just under a PPG last season. Expectations should fully be 90 points with potential for more.

[Randall Flagg]

14 minutes ago, Hoss said:

If this is our expectation for Eichel then it's a disaster. Luckily, it's not. He was just under a PPG last season. Expectations should fully be 90 points with potential for more.

By baseline I just mean that it would be extraordinarily unusual for him to finish below that mark, not that it's any sort of expectation. Like, if you take his last 120 games, his points per 82 is roughly 76-77, so a cold shooting season could feasibly drop that to about 70, but probably not lower. So that's his baseline. 

I expect about 77 points until I see otherwise, but am hoping and praying for a 90 point breakout season for sure. 

[TrueBlueGED]

He wasn't a Sabre, and I still like the signing given the contract and available alternatives, but I'll go with Carter Hutton. He'll be more like his career average performance than the career best performance he had last season.

[Doohickie]

30 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Jack could fall behind if Phil gives him a bunch of defensive minutes to help replace the loss of Ryan but I don't think Phil will do that

That's what Sobotka/Berglund are here for.  However there will need to be an eventual replacement groomed for those minutes.  If Reino does go back to center as JBot intimated, I think he could get groomed for that role.

[Gatorman0519]

My biggest question is how the absence of ROR will effect the team

[Winston]

Casey Nelson’s numbers weren’t eye popping last year, but he definitely looked like he belonged, even on the second pair. There’s a chance that Dahlin and (appropriately used) Risto show us what real NHL defensemen look like, and Casey looks like AHL fodder once more. 

If that’s our biggest disappointment, we’re in for a nice season!

If I had to pick a worst-case scenario, it’s that Hutton/Ullmark combine to be a bottom 5 pairing like we had last year. But I don’t foresee it. 

[Randall Flagg]

23 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

That's what Sobotka/Berglund are here for.  However there will need to be an eventual replacement groomed for those minutes.  If Reino does go back to center as JBot intimated, I think he could get groomed for that role.

That makes me feel worse

[IKnowPhysics]

Sam Reinhart because O'Reilly's gone.

Of Sabres who played more than 45 minutes with O'Reilly (about 3 games worth of O'Reilly's shifts), Sam Reinhart had the highest FF% (55.2) of any Sabre forward with O'Reilly and had the lowest FF% of any Sabre (46.0) without O'Reilly.  ROR had a massive positive impact on Reinhart's game.  I hope he can find his way without him, but if he doesn't, I guess I won't be surprised.

[Glossary: Fenwick - any unblocked shot attempt (goals, shots on net and misses) outside of the shootout. Referred to as USAT by the NHL. FF% - Percentage of total Fenwick while that player is on the ice that are for that player's team. FF*100/(FF+FA)]

 

 

Runner up: Scott Wilson, same reason.

High FF% with ROR (54.0), abyssmal FF% without ROR (41.6).  The difference is that Scott Wilson's numbers were good because he earned time with ROR and Reinhart, giving him excellent linemates.  When he did not have those linemates, he had bad linemates, which dropped his FF%.  But the team FF% was worse (41.3) when Scott Wilson played without those two players than the rest of the team was without those three players (46.9), meaning that if Scott Wilson was on the ice without ROR or Reinhart, the team was awful.  Giving him only Sam brought the team back to its relative average (46.9), which is still bad  The bottom six was awful last year, and I hope new linemates will give Scott a fresh start, but it's possible that without ROR, Wilson may be part of the problem.

[Doohickie]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

That makes me feel worse

Eh.  I think it doesn't matter in the end.  If those two suck and can't deal with a defensive assignment at this stage in their careers, it may just mean there's room for someone from Rochester to take their spot.  If the Sabres are positive with their young centers and negative with these guys centering lines, does it really matter?

Having said that, I don't think they will be as bad as you fear, at least not Berglund.

[pi2000]

Step back?  Casey Nelson.  Guy has maxed out his potential, he's already 26, and I didn't think he was all that great last season but everybody liked his game because he was consistently average on a last place team.   I wouldn't be surprised if he's scratched most nights.

[Ogre]

51 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Step back?  Casey Nelson.  Guy has maxed out his potential, he's already 26, and I didn't think he was all that great last season but everybody liked his game because he was consistently average on a last place team.   I wouldn't be surprised if he's scratched most nights.

This is the most reasonable take I’ve seen on this board about Nelson.

He struggled in Rochester at times last season. Sitting in the press box most nights would be best for both teams IMO.

[Weave]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Step back?  Casey Nelson.  Guy has maxed out his potential, he's already 26, and I didn't think he was all that great last season but everybody liked his game because he was consistently average on a last place team.   I wouldn't be surprised if he's scratched most nights.

I'd be disappointed if he wasn't.

And I could def see Wilson being the new whipping boy.

 

[Derrico]

Meh, Wilson is making a million bucks.  The whipping boys are usually left for guy's with much higher salary.  

[TrueBlueGED]

12 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Meh, Wilson is making a million bucks.  The whipping boys are usually left for guy's with much higher salary.  

I dunno, look at all the hate Girgensons gets even though he's a perfectly useful depth player. 

[Derrico]

7 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I dunno, look at all the hate Girgensons gets even though he's a perfectly useful depth player. 

I guess but he was a first round pick.  Wilson we acquired for basically nothing, he counts almost nothing against the cap and I wouldn't think fans have that high of expectations for him.

[Weave]

29 minutes ago, Derrico said:

I guess but he was a first round pick.  Wilson we acquired for basically nothing, he counts almost nothing against the cap and I wouldn't think fans have that high of expectations for him.

 

 

Even Stanley cup teams have whipping boys.  Every team has a low or under performer.  I think this roster has reached a point where Wilson will be noticed in less than positive ways now.  And he'll get criticized for it.

And he's not a shiny new toy anymore as well.

[TrueBlueGED]

3 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Step back?  Casey Nelson.  Guy has maxed out his potential, he's already 26, and I didn't think he was all that great last season but everybody liked his game because he was consistently average on a last place team.   I wouldn't be surprised if he's scratched most nights.

I would be, which is more of a commentary on our RHD depth chart than on my opinion of Casey. Only way I see him a regular scratch is if they keep Dahlin on the right or make another move there.

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I would be, which is more of a commentary on our RHD depth chart than on my opinion of Casey. Only way I see him a regular scratch is if they keep Dahlin on the right or make another move there.

The proposition of adding Dahlin and ONLY Dahlin to our defense would have made each and every member of this board apoplectic in early May. More than if we hadn't won the lottery, because now there was a precious piece that needed insulation and valuable mentoring. 

It is human nature to block out the misery that was Sabres hockey offensively and defensively last year. As a result, it probably would not seem a big deal to most now, and the lack of action would likely even gather defenders.

And when this team sits in the basement again, all we'll hear is how lazy and entitled Jack and Sam are, the only two pieces left that you can actually rely on for any success, because they won't find success on their own.

Edited July 8, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Thorny]

33 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I would be, which is more of a commentary on our RHD depth chart than on my opinion of Casey. Only way I see him a regular scratch is if they keep Dahlin on the right or make another move there.

Even with Dahlin on the right, I can't see Nelson being a regular scratch on D, as with Bogo's inevitable injury, Casey Nelson is next up on the right side. 

27 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The proposition of adding Dahlin and ONLY Dahlin to our defense would have made each and every member of this board apoplectic in early May. More than if we hadn't won the lottery, because now there was a precious piece that needed insulation and valuable mentoring. 

It is human nature to block out the misery that was Sabres hockey offensively and defensively last year. As a result, it probably would not seem a big deal to most now, and the lack of action would likely even gather defenders.

And when this team sits in the basement again, all we'll hear is how lazy and entitled Jack and Sam are, the only two pieces left that you can actually rely on for any success, because they won't find success on their own.

I'm frankly shocked that Botterill has ignored the right side of the defence this far, especially considering he has been proactive on many other fronts. I've been harping on the need to add a RHD for months and I'm sticking to that. I said I would be, to use your word, apoplectic if Bogosian entered into the season penciled in as the #2 RHD, and as of now that's still the case. 

Lots of off-season left, I need to hope Botterill has another name in mind for the right side. 

[TrueBlueGED]

Just now, Thorny said:

Even with Dahlin on the right, I can't see Nelson being a regular scratch on D, as with Bogo's inevitable injury, Casey Nelson is next up on the right side. 

I'm frankly shocked that Botterill has ignored the right side of the defence this far, especially considering he has been proactive on many other fronts. I've been harping on the need to add a RHD for months and I'm sticking to that. I said I would be, to use your word, apoplectic if Bogosian entered into the season penciled in as the #2 RHD, and as of now that's still the case. 

Lots of off-season left, I need to hope Botterill has another name in mind for the right side. 

I'm not shocked at all. Everything Botterill and Housley have both done and said since coming in says they really do like Bogosian. Fools' gold will always have a buyer...and unfortunately, we've got two of them.