Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

[Scottysabres]

I hadn't had a chance to comment on this trade, but it does seem a bit low in value for a player of O'Reilly's caliber. Was there an underlying problem in the locker room, or was Botterill sending a message?

Tage Thompson? A protected 1st? Another Swede and a salary cap dump topped off by a throw in 2nd? I really hope Botterill knows what he's doing, because that package appears significantly underwhelming.

[Derrico]

It sure looked like JBotts was moving ROR come hell or high water.  Interesting quote from Chris Taylor in the Athletic today.

Quote

Culturally, these are the guys that are going to change the organization around and your not going to bring an older guy in and all of a sudden the room changes.  It starts within and it all starts with the draft and from last year to this year you can see it, even the culture change from last year when I was here I think it's changed a lot coming into this year; guys seem a lot more eager and a lot (happier).

So many little tidbits dropped that for whatever reason the organization stunk off the ice over the past couple of years as well.

Look for the Sabres to continue the Bills blueprint of putting a ton more weight in a guys character/attitude and not just looking at the skill set.

[Samson's Flow]

1 hour ago, Guest said:

Also true and something to consider. The following year he put up 19goals and only 7 were ppg. Tkachuk had 3ppg and 1 shg in his first year, we will have to see if he plays in year 2. 

 

In other news, I found this quite interesting.

That chart seems to really  like Carter Hutton. He's almost as valuable in GAR as Tavares and O'Reilly. Now that's obviously based on his career year last year, but the economic deal we got him on leaves plenty of upside. I'm going to guess the other two unnamed light blue pieces are Berglund/Sobotka/Thompson

[Derrico]

11 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

That chart seems to really  like Carter Hutton. He's almost as valuable in GAR as Tavares and O'Reilly. Now that's obviously based on his career year last year, but the economic deal we got him on leaves plenty of upside. I'm going to guess the other two unnamed light blue pieces are Berglund/Sobotka/Thompson

Ya that jumped out at me too.  Maybe it's wishful thinking but I liked the analogy (I think it was duda) I read the other day that compared JBott to playing moneyball.  One of JBott's biggest strengths coming in was suppose to be cap management.  Immediately after the ROR trade I was down on the team coming into this year but maybe some of these low cost and/or veteran guys will pan out alright and we will be better than once thought.

[Samson's Flow]

1 minute ago, Derrico said:

Ya that jumped out at me too.  Maybe it's wishful thinking but I liked the analogy (I think it was duda) I read the other day that compared JBott to playing moneyball.  One of JBott's biggest strengths coming in was suppose to be cap management.  Immediately after the ROR trade I was down on the team coming into this year but maybe some of these low cost and/or veteran guys will pan out alright and we will be better than once thought.

Well the counterpoint to that is we tried to build a "stars and scrubs" team with GMTM that a lot of people on this board thought was primed to do some immediate damage early since we had big names in Eichel, ROR, Kane, Okposo. That obviously didn't work, so maybe the less sexy balanced team will be more effective by identifying the low cost economical players than can make an impact, where the sum of our team parts is greater than the individual talent (think Vegas).

Finding the market inefficiencies (the goalie market was cheap this year v. the center market) and acquiring those players could be a route to success.

[Randall Flagg]

I think Carter is far more likely to fall to (or below) his career average in the role and with the defense he has here.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think Carter is far more likely to fall to (or below) his career average in the role and with the defense he has here.

I don't disagree. I would add that defensively this year, we are really traveling into the unknown. We could have a healthy Bogosian and Dahlin with either Guhle or Pilut. Half of our top 6 will be different. That change and success or failure will be key. 

 

please save your bogosian jokes, healthy he is a decent 2nd pair guy. 

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think Carter is far more likely to fall to (or below) his career average in the role and with the defense he has here.

He’s right there, just behind Casey and Dahlin in the “guys to watch category”

He played 40 generally mediocre games five years ago with Nashville, then three years as a solid backup before his outstanding season last year. He’s 32. His resume says Chad Johnson.

But our goaltending was bad last year. He can provide better. How much better this team with average goaltending? How much better with solid goaltending?

What kind of difference will his demeanour make when compared to Lehner?

The Sabres studied him a lot more closely than I did last year and went after him. It’s a good test of Botterill and his pro scouts. Im very curious to see if he can justify that faith.

Edited July 6, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't disagree. I would add that defensively this year, we are really traveling into the unknown. We could have a healthy Bogosian and Dahlin with either Guhle or Pilut. Half of our top 6 will be different. That change and success or failure will be key. 

 

please save your bogosian jokes, healthy he is a decent 2nd pair guy. 

In his brief time with McCabe he dragged him into the pits of hell, actually, and McCabe wasn't even that good to begin with. I've never seen less high-speed hockey sense in a defensive pairing than that one. Bogosian is not good at hockey. He could be made less of an anchor with a high IQ and stable partner, but then he'd be in Scandella's role which would also be bad for the team. 

Good hockey teams can afford to have one highly specialized player on their defense but those guys usually ALSO bring an offensive edge, like Justin Faulk or Kevin Shattenkirk, whereas there's generally no tangible upside to Zach even if you did shelter him enough that he's not actively a huge anchor

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s right there, just behind Casey and Dahlin in the “guys to watch category”

He played 40 generally mediocre games five years ago with Nashville, then three years as a solid backup before his outstanding season last year. He’s 32. His resume says Chad Johnson.

But our goaltending was bad last year. He can provide better. How much better this team with average goaltending? How much better with solid goaltending?

What kind of difference will his demeanour make when compared to Lehner?

The Sabres studied him a lot more closely than I did last year and went after him. It’s a good test of Botterill and his pro scouts. Im very curious to see if he can justify that faith.

I'm totally happy with the addition even with all the stuff you point out - and I think the locker room aspect might be my favorite part. He and Ullmark seem to be some of the happiest and most uplifting teammates that you can find. Even I can happily admit that our team needs a lot of that.

[LGR4GM]

I think he has been injured for the majority of his time in Buffalo and I am curious to see if the player we saw last season is the real player. 

[Derrico]

30 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

Well the counterpoint to that is we tried to build a "stars and scrubs" team with GMTM that a lot of people on this board thought was primed to do some immediate damage early since we had big names in Eichel, ROR, Kane, Okposo. That obviously didn't work, so maybe the less sexy balanced team will be more effective by identifying the low cost economical players than can make an impact, where the sum of our team parts is greater than the individual talent (think Vegas).

Finding the market inefficiencies (the goalie market was cheap this year v. the center market) and acquiring those players could be a route to success.

Yep, exactly this.

[dudacek]

I’m a little tired of the Bogosian discussion because he is so infrequently healthy, our views are mostly fuelled by three-year-old general impressions. Never mind what he may or may not have been. I want to know who he is in the context of this revamped team. He’s a player with a lot to prove who should start the season in a prime position to succeed. #### or get off the pot.

Edited July 6, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I’m a little tired of the Bogosian discussion because he is so infrequently healthy, our views are mostly fuelled by three-year-old general impressions. Never mind what he may or may not have been. I want to know who he is in the context of this revamped team. He’s a player with a lot to prove who should start the season in a prime position to succeed. #### or get off the pot.

Bold prediction - he gets off the pot in training camp, gets back on at game 30, and is back off by game 43.

[Samson's Flow]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s right there, just behind Casey and Dahlin in the “guys to watch category”

He played 40 generally mediocre games five years ago with Nashville, then three years as a solid backup before his outstanding season last year. He’s 32. His resume says Chad Johnson.

But our goaltending was bad last year. He can provide better. How much better this team with average goaltending? How much better with solid goaltending?

What kind of difference will his demeanour make when compared to Lehner?

The Sabres studied him a lot more closely than I did last year and went after him. It’s a good test of Botterill and his pro scouts. Im very curious to see if he can justify that faith.

But even if Hutton has a 10% change of being a late-bloomer Tim Thomas type, the investment is minimal enough that there isn't much risk imo. Even if he regresses back to league average goalie or even further to backup level, that doesn't hurt us much in the long run.

What I think i am convincing myself is that the Sabres as a whole kept making high-risk swing for the fences additions (ROR, Kane, Okposo, Moulson) that had to work out or we were screwed with a high AAV/term contract. We missed on too many of those to build a quality team. Now the strategy seems to be throw enough darts in the low cost market to increase your chances of enough hitting to make an impact. If you miss on those, they are only a few million and short term where you can trade them away or just wait them out without crippling your dart-throwing ability next year.

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Bold prediction - he gets off the pot in training camp, gets back on at game 30, and is back off by game 43.

So now I picture Bogo as an old guy with IBS. Great... ?

[Randall Flagg]

I just read a blues fan say that one knock on Berglund is his propensity to get down on himself if things aren't going well. 

 

?

[SwampD]

4 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I just read a blues fan say that one knock on Berglund is his propensity to get down on himself if things aren't going well. 

 

?

Just as long as he doesn't lose his love for the game...

[pi2000]

Have had a few days now to fully digest the trade and explore it from all angles.   I've moved past the initial shock, subsequent denial, anger and bargaining stages of grief... I'm now fully engulf in the depression phase.   

[Thorny]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m a little tired of the Bogosian discussion because he is so infrequently healthy, our views are mostly fuelled by three-year-old general impressions. Never mind what he may or may not have been. I want to know who he is in the context of this revamped team. He’s a player with a lot to prove who should start the season in a prime position to succeed. #### or get off the pot.

Spoiler alert: he gets injured.

[Doohickie]

You win Sabrespace tonight, Thorny.

 

[JJFIVEOH]

On 7/4/2018 at 10:30 PM, Briere48 said:

Of course i could be wrong, but no, i don't think Eichel could be the problem at all. I think when the team loses a lot, people always try to search for answers and often times look at the star players and try to connect any dots they can find and hope it matches with their agenda. Like some of the posters here have said, Paul Hamilton and Mike Harrington have both referenced how he has matured as a player. It's well chronicled how he and Sam Reinhart are best buds. He lived with Matt Moulson and i recall hearing that Jack still keeps communication with Moulson even after he was loaned out to Cali in the AHL. Eichel also took Casey Mittelstadt out to lunch when he first arrived to town and also called Rasmus Dahlin as soon as he was drafted. On top of all that, Evander Kane called him "a great young leader" in a piece he did recently for the Players Tribune. 

I may be missing something, but nothing adds up about Eichel being part of the problem.

I think Eichel was/is a pouty, spoiled kid. O'Reilly seemed to be a better leader. 

I guess we'll see going forward.

[Huckleberry]

4 hours ago, Falstaff said:

ROR got deliberately speared, in the ballbag, from behind, by Crosby and did nothing about it.  Nothing.  Call me old-fashioned but when someone spears me, or anyone else on my team, in the jewels there sort of needs to be a pretty hefty response. God forbid take a minor penalty, go nuts make it a 4!.  If you want to talk about a play that epitomizes the way the team has been the last couple years it's that one.  Listless to the point of not even protecting ones own genitals. Neutered and OK with it. 

Also, if we ever have a Lady Byng winner again, he better be scoring a minimum of a point per game.  Otherwise, sack up and hit someone occasionally.

Yeah I never got that, I would want payback.

[JJFIVEOH]

On 7/12/2018 at 2:42 AM, Falstaff said:

ROR got deliberately speared, in the ballbag, from behind, by Crosby and did nothing about it.  Nothing.  Call me old-fashioned but when someone spears me, or anyone else on my team, in the jewels there sort of needs to be a pretty hefty response. God forbid take a minor penalty, go nuts make it a 4!.  If you want to talk about a play that epitomizes the way the team has been the last couple years it's that one.  Listless to the point of not even protecting ones own genitals. Neutered and OK with it. 

Also, if we ever have a Lady Byng winner again, he better be scoring a minimum of a point per game.  Otherwise, sack up and hit someone occasionally.

Funny, I just read this after quoting you in the other thread. 

O'Reilly is soft. Barkov also got nominated for Lady Byng, would you turn him down?

My point is, there are role players, guys that stand up for their team. Gudas, Smith-Pelly, Reaves, Haley................ O'Reilly wasn't going to stand up for himself when he speared in the balls. But other players would step in on the next shift to make it doesn't happen again. 

Or, it just wouldn't have happened in the first place because they knew there was somebody on the bench waiting to beat their ass. 

Alas, O'Reilly is gone so this is kind of a moot point. ?

[Brawndo]

 

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

class act, well done Ryan.