The avoidance of CHL players

[LGR4GM]

Personally I'm concerned. That 2nd round pick was very conservative and safe. There were also a few later chl guys that had good ceilings. I understand the logic in later rounds but we didn't take a lot of potential outside Dahlin in this draft. I do like the Metaj pick.

 

I am curious to see how this plays out over the years.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Personally I'm concerned. That 2nd round pick was very conservative and safe. There were also a few later chl guys that had good ceilings. I understand the logic in later rounds but we didn't take a lot of potential outside Dahlin in this draft. I do like the Metaj pick.

I am curious to see how this plays out over the years.

This was clearly someone Jbot had his eye on. He wanted a big mobile D who is physical and Samuelsson is exactly that. There is nothing conservative about this pick, especially when the whole draft was about smallish high skill D from Sweden. I do somewhat agree that it is safe, but Jbot’s job in the draft is to find and develop NHL players and Samuelsson will be in the NHL within three years.

Aren’t you sick of the high upside and no success players we have drafted or acquired from the 2nd in recent years. Where are Hurley, Karabacek, Cornel, Carrier, Bailey, and Lemieux?

[LGR4GM]

There is a lot conservative about the pick. I'm fine with it though.

 

I think the idea that Botterill is a conservative or risk avoiding gm has merit and may be a concern.

[TrueBlueGED]

Why would you be concerned with it if he said "in the later rounds" ?

Because bias isn't something you can just flip on and off like a light switch when it's convenient to do so.

[LGR4GM]

Because bias isn't something you can just flip on and off like a light switch when it's convenient to do so.

Yup. He's definitely thinking, "well I could take this CHL kid or this ushl kid who I get for more years" whether he consciously knows it or not

[GASabresIUFAN]

There is a lot conservative about the pick. I'm fine with it though.

I think the idea that Botterill is a conservative or risk avoiding gm has merit and may be a concern.

I see a calculating guy. In his two drafts I’m seeing both safe picks and crazy picks. He seems to be making sure he gets at least two NHL players out of each draft and then he is hitting for the fences. How else can we describe his top 4 of Dahlin, Samuelsson, Mittelstadt and Davidsson and then picks like UPL, Laaksonen, Weissbach, Cronholm and Kukkonen. Even Pekar is a home run swing on the upside however he was a resl value pick IMO.

 

My guess is after the 2nd rd, he looks at the success numbers of these players in general and basically values them all the same. So he takes players who do a could of natural things well, like speed, size or shot and see if they develop what else they need.

[TheAud]

If I had analysis indicating the rest of the NHL overvalue the Canadian Jr's (i.e. they have a disproportionately higher failure rate over time given their draft position vs. other leagues) and I valued the extra development years more than most other NHL teams, I could see a draft where I picked no CHL players happening quite often. 

 

The Sabres board would systematically rate players from Non-CHL leagues a little higher than most other team's boards. When the draft happens, the other teams are snapping up more CHL players whereas the Sabres board doesn't have them quite so highly ranked (in general), so the scenario where a higher rated CHL player is left for the Sabres to pick, per their board, may rarely happen.

 

Now I am not saying the analysis indicating the CHL is overvalued exists, nor do I know how strongly JBots values the additional development years. I am just saying that if these premises were true and the Sabres were in a minority in the NHL, a CHL-free draft result may happen more often than not. As others have pointed out, it's more likely a CHL player would be picked in round 1 if the Sabres had a high pick and the talent was clearly evident. But as the draft goes on, the difference in valuations will make it increasingly unlikely a CHL player would be selected by Buffalo.  

 

I don't think this is a problem per se. It's just a valuation made by the front office. If it's a bad judgment then of course that is likely to hurt over time. 

 

BTW it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Canadian juniors were systematically overrated by old time hockey management types. 

[dudacek]

Purely anecdotal, but my sense is that a higher percentage of late round gems are college or European players.

 

I get that the Sabres generally have a track record of screwing up, but why dismiss the possibility Botterill has actually analyzed the situation and strategized accordingly?

[Weave]

Purely anecdotal, but my sense is that a higher percentage of late round gems are college or European players.

 

I get that the Sabres generally have a track record of screwing up, but why dismiss the possibility Botterill has actually analyzed the situation and strategized accordingly?

 

We're not talking about just late round avoidance.  There appears to be a history of avoidance overall.  A real bias. 

[darksabre]

*strategy

[LTS]

The CHL isn't what it used to be.

 

2018 Draft - Canadian Junior Program Picks

Round 1 - 14 

Round 2 - 13  

Round 3 - 10

Round 4 - 13

Round 5 - 15

Round 6 - 14

Round 7 - 11

 

They are still getting picked, but there's plenty of other talent out there that's just as good.  If you have two players relatively equal you are going to take the one you have more control over.

 

It makes sense.  By and large though I believe the number of Canadians being selected has been decreasing. 

 

This year the selections break down:

 

Round 1:

10 - Canada

6 - Sweden

6 - United States

4 - Russia

2 - Finland

2 - Czech

1 - Germany

 

Round 2:

5 - United States

13 - Canada

8 - Sweden

4 - Russia

1 - Slovakia

 

While Canada still has the most players selected, it seems that Sweden has begun producing players that GMs are interested in.  The dominance isn't the same.  

[matter2003]

There appears to be an early round avoidance as well though.  I'm not inclined to take at face value that the largest talent pool in the world didn't supply one single better prospect in the last two drafts, rounds 1-3.  Sample size is starting to suggest a bias, regardless of what he says.

Oh really?  Because he picked Dahlin?  What GM in their right mind wouldn't have?  

The CHL isn't what it used to be.

 

2018 Draft - Canadian Junior Program Picks

Round 1 - 14 

Round 2 - 13  

Round 3 - 10

Round 4 - 13

Round 5 - 15

Round 6 - 14

Round 7 - 11

 

They are still getting picked, but there's plenty of other talent out there that's just as good.  If you have two players relatively equal you are going to take the one you have more control over.

 

It makes sense.  By and large though I believe the number of Canadians being selected has been decreasing. 

 

This year the selections break down:

 

Round 1:

10 - Canada

6 - Sweden

6 - United States

4 - Russia

2 - Finland

2 - Czech

1 - Germany

 

Round 2:

5 - United States

13 - Canada

8 - Sweden

4 - Russia

1 - Slovakia

 

While Canada still has the most players selected, it seems that Sweden has begun producing players that GMs are interested in.  The dominance isn't the same.  

 

That is because Sweden has a legendary training system that begins when the players are 7 and 8 years old and continues until they end up leaving...Craig Rivet and Matt Ellis were talking about how crazy it is on the Instigators about the stuff they do over there...their training systems allow players to become better players than equivalently skilled players from other countries. 

 

They basically went over their overall hockey model with a fine toothed comb starting with young players and how they develop them and put together one of the best if not the best development programs of any sport for any country in the world.  Some of these ideas are completely different from how the rest of the world does things, but they put a lot of time and energy and got a lot of very knowledgeable people together to build this from scratch basically.  It is really starting to pay off now however, as Sweden does very well in most tournaments and their players typically play very well in the NHL...

 

A lot of their training is off the ice...doing hurdles, running up and down steps of the arena, running up and down hills, etc...then even when they get on the ice, a lot of their time is spent doing "skilled" things like stickhandling.  Rivet said they got on the ice and all they did for the first 15 minutes was stickhandle the puck every day.

 

https://www.nhl.com/news/swedens-new-look-hockey-model-paying-dividends/c-598251

 

https://www.hockeycentre.org/Portals/3/IIHF_docs_HDC_2013/Henrik%20Haraldsson%20-%20Sweden.pdf

Edited June 24, 2018 by matter2003

[Robviously]

Has there been an obvious CHL player we have passed on? Samuelsson wasn't a super exciting pick yesterday but most people here would have taken Wilde or Berggren instead, and they aren't CHL players either. Akil Thomas was the only CHL guy I was maybe thinking there.

 

And it actually does make sense to look to Europe and college in the later rounds, both for upside and because the players will have more time before you need to sign them.

[thewookie1]

We're not talking about just late round avoidance.  There appears to be a history of avoidance overall.  A real bias. 

 

You can't create a bias based on a total of 2 2nd rounders and a bunch of later round picks who actually award you more if you avoid the CHL in theory. The lower in the draft you go, the more development they need. CHL players give you a mere two years to judge them on where as a college player gives you up to four. Just because Mittlestadt was a college player doesn't mean he hates the CHL. Just look at the number of college players on Pittsburgh.

[GASabresIUFAN]

You can't create a bias based on a total of 2 2nd rounders and a bunch of later round picks who actually award you more if you avoid the CHL in theory. The lower in the draft you go, the more development they need. CHL players give you a mere two years to judge them on where as a college player gives you up to four. Just because Mittlestadt was a college player doesn't mean he hates the CHL. Just look at the number of college players on Pittsburgh.

There is no question that Jbot likes Euros and NCAA/USHL players better because of the 4 years to develop and then sign. So all else being equal he leans towards these players. Research one by TSN’s Cullen shows that after the second rd there isn’t much statistical success difference between a 3rd pick and a 7th rd picks. 3rd rounders are better but not substantially. Once you get to the 3rd 85% are 4th liners or worse. Might as well take the guy that gives you years to mature.

 

For guys he thinks will be pros within 2 years, I doubt he cares what league they’re from. If Dahlin or Mittelstadt were in the CHL do you think he wouldn’t have drafted them?

Edited June 24, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

We're not talking about just late round avoidance. There appears to be a history of avoidance overall. A real bias.

 

I feel like you’ve turned into Pi and I am biting hard.

 

In Botterill’s last six drafts in Pittsburgh, they had 4 first round picks and 6 seconds.

Of those 10 picks, two were from Sweden, one from Finland one from US high school and six were from the CHL.

 

If he had any bias, looks like it was FOR the CHL.

Edited June 24, 2018 by dudacek

[Weave]

Oh really?  Because he picked Dahlin?  What GM in their right mind wouldn't have?  

 

 

 

You can't create a bias based on a total of 2 2nd rounders and a bunch of later round picks who actually award you more if you avoid the CHL in theory. The lower in the draft you go, the more development they need. CHL players give you a mere two years to judge them on where as a college player gives you up to four. Just because Mittlestadt was a college player doesn't mean he hates the CHL. Just look at the number of college players on Pittsburgh.

 

*sigh*

 

Do people on the internet develop total amnesia regarding posts more fully fleshed out just a few posts above the ones they respond to?

 

The sample size continues all the way back to Pittsburgh when Jbotts was running the draft there.  It's all covered just a few posts higher.

I feel like you’ve turned into Pi and I am biting hard.

 

In Botterill’s last six drafts in Pittsburgh, they had 4 first round picks and 6 seconds.

Of those 10 picks, two were from Sweden, one from Finland one from US high school and six were from the CHL.

 

If he had any bias, looks like it was FOR the CHL.

 

I looked at the last 3 drafts in P-Burgh.  No idea how much influence JBott had before then.  In those 3 drafts the Pens picked 1 CHL player in round 2, one in round 3 (or 4 it's on the previous page), and one in round 6.  And none in Buffalo in the last 2 drafts.  Anyway you slice it that is way below typical for drafting CHL players even given the influx of Euro picks in the draft.

 

And no, I'm not trolling.  Just expanding on what I perceive is a bias in the process that I question.  At the end of the day, if he hits on a bunch of these picks I'll be among the first to agree with the method.  But for now it concerns me.

 

Frankly, the only reason I keep responding is because people keep emphasizing late round picks when it seems pretty clear to me that the bias is not just a late round bias.

Edited June 24, 2018 by We've

[matter2003]

*sigh*

 

Do people on the internet develop total amnesia regarding posts more fully fleshed out just a few posts above the ones they respond to?

 

The sample size continues all the way back to Pittsburgh when Jbotts was running the draft there.  It's all covered just a few posts higher.

 

I looked at the last 3 drafts in P-Burgh.  No idea how much influence JBott had before then.  In those 3 drafts the Pens picked 1 CHL player in round 2, one in round 3 (or 4 it's on the previous page), and one in round 6.  And none in Buffalo in the last 2 drafts.  Anyway you slice it that is way below typical for drafting CHL players even given the influx of Euro picks in the draft.

 

And no, I'm not trolling.  Just expanding on what I perceive is a bias in the process that I question.  At the end of the day, if he hits on a bunch of these picks I'll be among the first to agree with the method.  But for now it concerns me.

 

Frankly, the only reason I keep responding is because people keep emphasizing late round picks when it seems pretty clear to me that the bias is not just a late round bias.

 

And they won multiple Stanley Cups because of the players they got in those drafts...whats the problem?

[TrueBlueGED]

And they won multiple Stanley Cups because of the players they got in those drafts...whats the problem?

Well, that's overstating things by an order of magnitude.

[Thorny]

It's definitely concerning. That's not the same as saying it's a bad plan of action. But I'm quite skeptical.

 

And how about not adding a single pick to the pipeline at our most lacking position organizationally? We have very few left wings. I don't think it made sense to draft 5 dmen, all left shots but one.

 

Maybe he plans on shifting those left shot D to left wing so Jack actually has someone to pass to, tape-to-tape. Weird draft from Botterill.

 

But we got Dahlin. I'm good.

Well, that's overstating things by an order of magnitude.

Wasn't Crosby straight out of Ball-so-Hard University?

[Weave]

And they won multiple Stanley Cups because of the players they got in those drafts...whats the problem?

 

 

Well, that's overstating things by an order of magnitude.

 

LOL right?

It's definitely concerning. That's not the same as saying it's a bad plan of action. But I'm quite skeptical.

 

 

This sums up my thoughts well.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Two questions

1) Do you think Jbot still drafts Mittelstadt and Dahlin if they were CHL players?

 

2) If the CHL/NHL revised their agreement and allowed NHL teams to hold on to a CHL player drafted in the 3rd rd or later rights for 3 years, do you think it would change Jbot's opinion?

[Eleven]

Two questions

1) Do you think Jbot still drafts Mittelstadt and Dahlin if they were CHL players?

 

2) If the CHL/NHL revised their agreement and allowed NHL teams to hold on to a CHL player drafted in the 3rd rd or later rights for 3 years, do you think it would change Jbot's opinion?

 

1) Dahlin, of course.  Mittlestadt, maybe not.

 

2) Not sure.

[Neo]

I’m not sure I understand the concern or skepticism, but I’ve missed my share of points.

 

JBot prefers leagues that offer preferred agreements when selecting players to develop under the agreements. The agreement advantage benefits all rounds. It is most beneficial in later rounds. In any event ...

 

What’s of interest to me is the dialogue the CHL must have been having for years within its ranks. “What do we gain and what does it cost”? There must be a philosophy behind its structure. That may take some googling!

[North Buffalo]

I'd be interested in determining how many Canadian players were drafted v CHL and if JBOTs is the only one sending this message...  it'd be interesting.