Around the NHL 2018-2019

[Huckleberry]

On 9/2/2018 at 6:20 PM, Sabel79 said:

Schmidt / Vegas all sorts of cheesed off... want you to know he didn't do it....

 

I wonder, if they only screwed up with Schmidt.   Maybe they should test the rest of the team also.

Edited September 4, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

Kyle Connor and Mark Schiefele were the most common combo with 48.6% of his ES minutes. No other combo was more than 9.3%. 68.7% of ES minutes came with some combo of Connor, Schiefele, Ehlers and Bryan Little.

Those are good players but hardly the elite type of players that would take away from that stat. Only 16.8% of time with Laine.

This response very rarely works because of course the league leaders are playing with good players.

We need some of that symbiotic stuff going on with our guys at some point. 

Wheeler plays as much a role in Scheifele's emergence as Scheifele does in Wheeler's uptick in scoring. 

He's essentially a ~70 point player that, when paired with a great center with whom he has chemistry, can put up seasons greater than that. Not many wingers have that base or the ability to score that much when things go right.

[Hoss]

Interesting note I found when looking at Wheeler’s stats: between 2010 and now he’s one of four players with 200 primary assists. The other four are Getzlaf, Kane and Crosby (in that order). Wheeler is fourth.

Nicklas Backstrom is far and away the leader in secondary assists with 181 in that time. Giroux, Henrik Sedin, Duncan Keith and Erik Karlsson are next. Crosby is sixth which shows you how involved he is on every play.

[pi2000]

Wheeler is a stud, worth a slight overpay.

Schmidt is full of Schmidt. 

[TrueBlueGED]

Wheeler is certainly going to be overpaid by the midpoint of that deal, but given his current production at his age, I'm inclined to think he'll still be a useful hockey player. This isn't a corpse on skates situation. 

[Thorny]

13 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Wheeler is certainly going to be overpaid by the midpoint of that deal, but given his current production at his age, I'm inclined to think he'll still be a useful hockey player. This isn't a corpse on skates situation. 

Likely, but I don't see that being the case during the later part of the deal, when he's on the wrong side of 35. 

[Hoss]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Likely, but I don't see that being the case during the later part of the deal, when he's on the wrong side of 35. 

35 would be the midpoint if that contract at which point you just agreed he would be a useful player before saying you don’t think he’ll be a useful player.

[Thorny]

Just now, Hoss said:

35 would be the midpoint if that contract at which point you just agreed he would be a useful player before saying you don’t think he’ll be a useful player.

When he's on the wrong side of 35, i.e. - 36, 37, I'm not inclined to bet on him still being that useful, particularly in regards to his AAV.

[Hoss]

Just now, Thorny said:

When he's on the wrong side of 35, i.e. - 36, 37, I'm not inclined to bet on him still being that useful, particularly in regards to his AAV.

I think he’ll be useful but “useful” won’t justify the AAV at that time. They’re banking on him justifying it with a cup sooner, though.

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I think he’ll be useful but “useful” won’t justify the AAV at that time. They’re banking on him justifying it with a cup sooner, though.

And like I said, if they are banking on a Cup in the next couple years to justify the deal, I don't like the deal. Particularly when I believe the contract plays a decent part in shortening their window, what with their upcoming contracts. And, like you said, an 8.25AAV not being justified at said time. 

Honestly, Wheeler being a year out from UFA at this stage was just unlucky timing for the Jets. They had to sign him, but given his age and the fact they had to pay for past production, combined with the talent they have coming or that is already there on the wings, the players they have to pay...the deal has a fair shot of blowing up in their face. 

Or maybe they win a Cup in the next couple years. It's possible. Have to wait and see. 

Edited September 5, 2018 by Thorny

[TrueBlueGED]

Numbers to support Thorny's side of things:

dellowhockey‏Verified account @dellowhockey 1h1 hour ago

More

So, uh, I just took at Wheeler's numbers at 5v5 during the games in which Scheifele was injured last year, as I've been assured that Wheeler was solid during that time. The points sure dried up: Scheifele injured: 21 GP, 298.52 minutes, 0.4 G/60, 1.0 A/60, 1.4 P60

dellowhockey‏Verified account @dellowhockey 1h1 hour ago

More

Most common linemates in those games: Laine and Connor.

Small sample and whatnot, but those are ugly.

Yikes, that posted way uglier than I thought it would. Anyway...

Edited September 5, 2018 by TrueBlueGED

[Randall Flagg]

How good is P/60, especially in a sample size like that?

Evan Rodrigues' is better than Blake's and than Eichel's

Not to be the guy that points to outliers. But I rarely see it talked about in analyses

Edited September 5, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[TrueBlueGED]

9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

How good is P/60, especially in a sample size like that?

Evan Rodrigues' is better than Blake's and than Eichel's

Not to be the guy that points to outliers. But I rarely see it talked about in analyses

I don't have a hard answer, but it's certainly nothing I'd hang my hat on. I just think it's interesting Wheeler's peak does seem to coincide with Scheifele's emergence outside of this sample. He had never hit 70 points until 15-16, when Scheifele started his breakout as a top center. Strikes me that there might be something there.

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I don't have a hard answer, but it's certainly nothing I'd hang my hat on. I just think it's interesting Wheeler's peak does seem to coincide with Scheifele's emergence outside of this sample. He had never hit 70 points until 15-16, when Scheifele started his breakout as a top center. Strikes me that there might be something there.

While technically true, he did have 4 seasons of pacing for, like, 65-70 points before that one, including 69 points, and 41 in 48 games during the lockout year (71 point pace). All with as many goals as he's scored the last 3. 

Like I mentioned the other day, I think he's a ~70 point winger that when paired with a young stud C who won't be going anywhere for the rest of Blake's contract, gets a many as 25 points better.

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

While technically true, he did have 4 seasons of pacing for, like, 65-70 points before that one, including 69 points, and 41 in 48 games during the lockout year (71 point pace). All with as many goals as he's scored the last 3. 

Like I mentioned the other day, I think he's a ~70 point winger that when paired with a young stud C who won't be going anywhere for the rest of Blake's contract, gets a many as 25 points better.

For now. Contract starts at 33. And let's see how quickly Laine and Connor and Ehlers start taking his minutes. 

[Randall Flagg]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

For now. Contract starts at 33. And let's see how quickly Laine and Connor and Ehlers start taking his minutes. 

Sure, but we've already tread that ground

[Thorny]

18 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Sure, but we've already tread that ground

Crab cakes and football. 

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Crab cakes and football. 

That's what we do?

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

That's what we do?

This deserves the old fashioned +1.

[Randall Flagg]

I saw an interesting analysis posted elsewhere: 

Somebody calculated the average 82-game point scoring rate for the top 9 forwards on the 16 playoff teams from last season. So, on average, to be a playoff team, your scorers would look like this: 
#1 scoring forward: 89 Point pace
#2 scoring forward: 75
3: 65
4: 52
5: 47
6: 42
7: 39
8: 33
9: 28

Obviously, injuries are why the raw numbers don't often look this good. Here's where the Sabres were, in parenthesis how far away from playoff average:

1: 79 (-10)
2: 61 (-14)
3: 50 (-15)
4: 47 (-3)
5: 46 (-1)
6: 42 ( exact)
7: 34 (-5)
8: 22 (-11)
9: 21 (-7)

Coincidentally, right around the bottom is where we fall off the table - among NHL teams I showed that the Sabres' top 6 scoring was only tenth worst, but behind that they were comfortably in last place for depth scoring - so the appearance of the chart might indicate that because someof those guys at spots 4 - 7 in this ranking were having totals inflated playing with guys at the top (like Kyle, Jason) we probably didn't get as much out of the top as we would have with real top line players accompanying them. But either way, we need more scoring at every level of the forward group. our offseason additions wouldn't have changed anything up top because of Skinner's down year, but some of those bottom scores would be pushed out by, say, Berglund. Which to me lends more to the idea that we need to use our depth additions to fix our depth and not to put with our scorers, who already score less than any stat and eye test say they should because they're playing with depth pieces and not good ones
 

[IKnowPhysics]

But if you shift everyone down one spot, it gives you much less variance to the curve:

1. ???
2. 79 (+4)
3. 61 (-4)
4. 50 (-2)
5. 47 (0)
6. 46 (+4)
7. 42 (+3)
8. 34 (+1)
9. 22 (-6)
10. 21

So what we need to do is tank another year to acquire leading scorer.

[Weave]

8 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

But if you shift everyone down one spot, it gives you much less variance to the curve:

1. ???
2. 79 (+4)
3. 61 (-4)
4. 50 (-2)
5. 47 (0)
6. 46 (+4)
7. 42 (+3)
8. 34 (+1)
9. 22 (-6)
10. 21

So what we need to do is tank another year to acquire leading scorer.

Hating you.

[Brawndo]

Eichel strongly disagrees with Jalen Ramsey’s Assessment he could play in the NHL 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/24598303/nhl-players-taken-aback-comments-jacksonville-jaguars-cb-jalen-ramsey

[ubkev]

7 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Eichel strongly disagrees with Jalen Ramsey’s Assessment he could play in the NHL 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/24598303/nhl-players-taken-aback-comments-jacksonville-jaguars-cb-jalen-ramsey

Kane and MacKinnon had the best takes.

[Taro T]

28 minutes ago, ubkev said:

Kane and MacKinnon had the best takes.

Yep.

Was kind of disappointed they didn't get Bahstan's rat faced git's take on Ramsey's supposition as my guess is he'd love to see him out there as he's never legally murdered anyone before.  And if you can't skate & you line up in a rink against NHLers who are playing for keeps, you will be lucky if you're only seriously injured.  Doesn't matter how strong you are nor how good of an athlete you are in cleats; without balance, speed, & maneuverability, & the awareness that comes from playing; when the blindside hit happens, you're faaaaacked.  And if he really has never skated before, he'd better be working full time all 6 months to learn how to skate, 'cause it still won't be enough.