ubkev Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Botterill Face. You think he knows we got this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorny Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Botterill Face. I’m sorry if the Sabres win 1st that’s my avatar forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kruppstahl Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Watching Botterill. I'm thinking of GMTM and how much he hated what Botts is doing right now. LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew Amerk Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 (edited) We know that there are 310 possible combinations that could have won right now. We own 185, or 60% of them. Edited April 28, 2018 by Randall Flagg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billznut Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher?Right. Thats what im wondering now. Is it 33.3% chance for the lat three teams? Or do we still have better odds?We know that there are 310 possible combinations that could have won right now. We own 185, or 60% of them.So we now have a 2 to 1 chance of winning this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Right. Thats what im wondering now. Is it 33.3% chance for the lat three teams? Or do we still have better odds? We now have a 60% chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunomatic Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Right. Thats what im wondering now. Is it 33.3% chance for the lat three teams? Or do we still have better odds? I would think the draw for last 3 was made when the others were drawn so the odds are the same as before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 If the Hurricanes win, we're totally doing ROR for Slavin right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunomatic Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 or I could be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 John VoglVerified account @BuffNewsVogl 2m2 minutes ago The Sabres have an 18.5 percent chance of being No. 1. Montreal has a 9.5 percent chance. Carolina has a 3 percent chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthEbriate Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 So... Y'all really aren't watching bizKid$? NBC... I am so ready to deal with you as I did the younglings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Is the Buffalo fan base the only one that seems to think this is fixed? I think even the idea it is seems idiotic and reminds me of the birth certificate controversy. I don't think anyone really believes it's fixed. It's just a way to let off steam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billznut Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 We now have a 60% chance.So it’s:Buffalo 60% Montreal 30% Carolina 10% Roughly?? John VoglVerified account @BuffNewsVogl 2m2 minutes ago The Sabres have an 18.5 percent chance of being No. 1. Montreal has a 9.5 percent chance. Carolina has a 3 percent chance. Vogls #s aren’t accurate anymore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 John VoglVerified account @BuffNewsVogl 2m2 minutes ago The Sabres have an 18.5 percent chance of being No. 1. Montreal has a 9.5 percent chance. Carolina has a 3 percent chance. This isn't right anymore. The pool of possible combinations is down to 310. We have 185 combinations. Come on Vogl. So it’s: Buffalo 60% Montreal 30% Carolina 10% Roughly?? Vogls #s aren’t accurate anymore Yessir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcsaberks Posted April 28, 2018 Report Share Posted April 28, 2018 Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher? It's still 18.5% chance + the other 2 picks. From DieByTheBlade: Best case of getting a top three pick will be 64.55% [‘#1’ pick 185/1000] + [#2 pick (if 30th team gets #1 pick) 185/865] + [#3 pick (if 29th team gets #2 pick) 185/750] = 64.55% https://www.diebytheblade.com/2018/4/28/17128884/2018-nhl-draft-lottery-team-odds-buffalo-sabres-probability-rasmus-dahlin-how-to-watch-time-channel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 We know for a fact that the combinations of the teams not drafting top 3 did not get picked at all. This eliminates 690 of the combinations that were contributing to our 18.5% chance. What we know right now is that one combination out of 310 possible ones was drawn to pick Dahlin, and that we have 185 of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 It was always 18.5. The drawing already happened. We know for a fact that the combinations of the teams not drafting top 3 did not get picked at all. This eliminates 690 of the combinations that were contributing to our 18.5% chance. What we know right now is that one combination out of 310 possible ones was drawn to pick Dahlin, and that we have 185 of them. This also is correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Did it happen? Where it it on? This thread sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Heart attack watching that #4 pick Let's finish this but man, we know we are getting solid player now. Let's get the best now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kruppstahl Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher? It's higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Did it happen? Where it it on? This thread sucks. inkman, they reveal the top three during the second intermission of the Sharks game. Then we'll know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 (edited) So this is definitely not on NBC Edited April 29, 2018 by inkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthEbriate Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 Did it happen? Where it it on? This thread sucks. You were watching bizKid$, too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JujuFish Posted April 29, 2018 Report Share Posted April 29, 2018 It was always 18.5. The drawing already happened. This also is correct. It's more like: Buffalo: 59.6774% Montreal: 30.6452% Carolina: 9.6774% Think of it like the Monty Hall problem. The "doors" that have been "opened" are teams that have been revealed, increasing the chances proportionally for the remaining teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.