Jump to content

Holy Mackerel! Sabres Win Dahlin Lottery!


Randall Flagg

Recommended Posts

Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher?

Right. Thats what im wondering now. Is it 33.3% chance for the lat three teams? Or do we still have better odds?

We know that there are 310 possible combinations that could have won right now. We own 185, or 60% of them.

So we now have a 2 to 1 chance of winning this?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

John Vogl‏Verified account @BuffNewsVogl 2m2 minutes ago

 
 

The Sabres have an 18.5 percent chance of being No. 1. Montreal has a 9.5 percent chance. Carolina has a 3 percent chance.

 

This isn't right anymore. The pool of possible combinations is down to 310. We have 185 combinations.

 

Come on Vogl. 

So it’s:

Buffalo 60%

Montreal 30%

Carolina 10%

 

Roughly??

Vogls #s aren’t accurate anymore

Yessir.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher?

It's still 18.5% chance + the other 2 picks.

From DieByTheBlade:

Best case of getting a top three pick will be 64.55%

[‘#1’ pick 185/1000] + [#2 pick (if 30th team gets #1 pick) 185/865] + [#3 pick (if 29th team gets #2 pick) 185/750] = 64.55%

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2018/4/28/17128884/2018-nhl-draft-lottery-team-odds-buffalo-sabres-probability-rasmus-dahlin-how-to-watch-time-channel

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We know for a fact that the combinations of the teams not drafting top 3 did not get picked at all. This eliminates 690 of the combinations that were contributing to our 18.5% chance. 

What we know right now is that one combination out of 310 possible ones was drawn to pick Dahlin, and that we have 185 of them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was always 18.5.  The drawing already happened.


We know for a fact that the combinations of the teams not drafting top 3 did not get picked at all. This eliminates 690 of the combinations that were contributing to our 18.5% chance. 

What we know right now is that one combination out of 310 possible ones was drawn to pick Dahlin, and that we have 185 of them.

 

This also is correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was always 18.5.  The drawing already happened.

 

This also is correct.

 

It's more like:

Buffalo: 59.6774%

Montreal: 30.6452%

Carolina: 9.6774%

 

Think of it like the Monty Hall problem.  The "doors" that have been "opened" are teams that have been revealed, increasing the chances proportionally for the remaining teams.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...