GDT: Dallas Stars @ Buffalo Sabres, 1/20/2018, 1pm ET, MSG

[SwampD]

Because that team finished with 54 and we're on something like a 57-58 point pace. Things aren't adding up right now just because there are 36 games left when who knows what will happen, both in general and with respect to the path that that season took. 

We had the 4th best winning percentage of all 30 NHL franchises when the Pegulas bought the team. We've dropped to 8th and will soon be 9th. 

 

Keep in mind that the sample size is ~80 games times almost 50 years. The fact that we've dropped so far in just 6 years is astounding statistically. 

 

Edit: this should be 7th, and soon 8th. Not fair to count Vegas in that analysis. 

 

Edit again: Points percentage, can't find raw win percentage and don't feel like calculating it. It's sunny out. I need to do what I said I was going to do. 

We're on pace for a 55 point season.

 

But you are right. Anything could happen. We could still have that 10 game losing streak once they trade Kane and ROR.

[Randall Flagg]

We're on pace for a 55 point season.

 

But you are right. Anything could happen. We could still have that 10 game losing streak once they trade Kane and ROR.

If we trade Kane AND ROR, you're goddamn right that this team is worse than the tank ones :lol:

 

Yeah, it was like 60 two games ago, I'm averaging. It'll bounce around the rest of the season. 

 

I predict that we actually have a decent March (relative to the rest of the year). There are a lot of home games left. Psychology is a funny thing and the players left after the trade deadline don't have things on their mind about where they might live next week. That could be all BS too. 

[SwampD]

If we trade Kane AND ROR, you're goddamn right that this team is worse than the tank ones :lol:

 

Yeah, it was like 60 two games ago, I'm averaging. It'll bounce around the rest of the season. 

 

I predict that we actually have a decent March (relative to the rest of the year). There are a lot of home games left. Psychology is a funny thing and the players left after the trade deadline don't have things on their mind about where they might live next week. That could be all BS too. 

Wait a minute. Are you telling me that there are actual people are playing this game?! I thought you stats folk just thought that everything that happens is just one great big mean reversion.

[Randall Flagg]

Wait a minute. Are you telling me that there are actual people are playing this game?! I thought you stats folk just thought that everything that happens is just one great big mean reversion.

I'm not a stat person like the stereotype that gets slammed by the type of hockey fan that you would label yourself as. I like to use them but I'm not a corsi-worshiper and there's obviously a lot more to the game than counts. When used with caution they are a great tool to supplement takes gleaned from watching the games. 

 

To the point that I recall running out of different ways to qualify all my stat posts with this caution when I was pumping out 100 posts per day :lol:

Edited January 21, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Derrico]

Well I've been coming down here for years now. Usually around 3 or 4 games per year. I always stay until the end, can never understand the fans who leave early to beat the traffic. Until today. I left after the second period. Couldn't watch the third. Rather spend time at the hotel pool than hear the Dallas fans in the arena giddly high fiving. What a disgrace......

[PASabreFan]

Maybe fire Housley at the end of this disaster season and promote Chris Taylor and about 5 Amerks.  He seems to have a winning touch.

It makes sense. (Former Sabre too.)

[Iron Crotch]

Watching the Preds - Panthers game and the Preds play every shift like it's Game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals. The building is absolutely rocking. End-to-end action. It's what we haven't seen in Buffalo in years.  ...reminds me of the Drury/Briere days when we were such an exciting team to watch. *sigh*

[Bluto]

Maybe next year. He’s on an entry level contract this year scoring a point per game, so you’re wrong.

 

A point a game sounds "cute" but he isn't a leader and how many points come on empty net goals. 

[Randall Flagg]

A point a game sounds "cute" but he isn't a leader and how many points come on empty net goals. 

In what ways is he not a leader? He contributes more to the successes of his team (goals scored) than any other player in the world. He's the only one that seems to care most the time. He's only 21. Even if he's not yet, which we have literally no way to tell as we aren't in the locker room, he can certainly grow to be one. 

 

And do you have anything to suggest that he scores more points on empty nets than other players with a lot of points? Because I highly doubt it. Players like Stamkos on teams like Tampa get a lot more cracks at empty nets than we do. 

[LTS]

Agreed, not all of what woes us is on Phil, but I do believe a great deal of it is and we are giving him a pass because it is his first year. I feel I have seen enough to think next season will not be any different then this one. 

 

The truth of the matter is, that despite the flack we give Robin Lehner ( some of it rightfully deserved) he has actually kept us in many games this season where we could have been blown out Today was not one of those but Lehner has made this club look more competitive then it truly is. Look at Ristolainen's regression under Phil. He looks barely AHL worthy at times this season and I do believe it is on Phil. Our power play now rates near the bottom if not the bottom and it used to be #1 with the same players: That's on Phil.

 

The phoning it in efforts are on Phil as he continues to refuse to sit anybody or demote anybody. Your coach cannot always be your friend. What worries me the most is that under Phil, I hope Jack isn't ruined and especially not Casey if Phil is here when he is. The Risto thing scares the hell out of me. The Anaheim-Kings efforts do have to do with their coaching as well as the level of talent. It does go hand in hand.

 

 

You don't believe Eichel is playing the best hockey he's ever played as a Sabre?

 

You see the same 5 players that were on the ice last year for the PP.  You see them setting up in the zone the same as they have in the past.  You still think that Housley is to blame?  How does that work?  "Hey Phil, how come the same 5 guys on the power play can't score as much this year as last year?  What did you change?  Oh, nothing?  It's all your fault.  It's all your fault."

 

We've heard time and time again how Botterill is not going to bring players from the AHL up here.  So Housley has no one to demote/promote.  They've slowly been bringing some players up for limited stints but the roster, for this year is set.  Housley has scratched players who need to be better.  He's rewarded some of them who have played better.  There are not unlimited resources in the system and all moves can't be made.

 

Every indication right now screams that there is a locker room issue and it's not getting resolved.  Perhaps last year it was easy for the players to somehow blame Murray and Bylsma.  This year those focus points are gone and they realize it's all on them and it ups the ante.  The best coach in the world isn't going to fix every problem.  Players have to go and we'll have to wait for them to go.  It's not awesome.  It is what it is.

[calti]

I don’t have the answer. I think it’s a complex mix of too many passengers and poor leadership and the talent issue intertwines with each. To be more specific as it applies to the team at this very moment:

 

1) Our ownership historically has coddled the players and helped create an environment where losing is tolerated.

2) Our GM is playing a long game in his plan to fix the mistakes of the previous regime.

3) Our coach is focused on a positive reinforcement development plan aimed at the small handful of players that will be here in a few years; too many of the rest don’t expect to be back and have no incentive to buy in.

4) Our coach (and, I believe, our GM) prefers a style of play not well-suited to the talent at hand.

5) Our veteran leadership Okposo, Pominville, Gorges haven’t been good enough for their example to resonate in the room.

6) The young veterans that should be our leaders - Kane, O’Reilly, Lehner, Bogosian - are ill-suited to that role.

7) Our best young talents -Reinhart, Risto and Eichel - have yet to show the maturity to seize leadership, although we are seeing signs from Eichel. On the ice, Jack has been very good, Risto OK and Reinhart bad.

8) Our second wave of young players - the guys you hope show Improvement like Beaulieu, Antipin, McCabe, Girgensons, Larsson, Rodrigues - have been completely unproductive, and in most cases not NHL calibre. Mostly talent, partly environment.

9) Our third wave of youngsters -Ullmark, Guhle, Smith, Nylander, Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching - has been deliberately shielded from the NHL mess by our GM in a bid to eliminate the environment concern

10) The group our GM brought in to shield them - Pouliot, Wilson, Nolan, Josefson, Falk, Johnson,Tennyson, Scandella - has largely been bad as well. With the exception of Scandella, they are journeymen fringe players just happy to be collecting NHL paycheques. All teams have them we have too many of them.

11) Our goalie has been mostly good, sometimes bad, but never good enough to win; he also does not seem to have the mental makeup that inspires confidence in the team in front of him.

 

In short, our depth of talent is bad, our top talent is not good enough to overcome that and it is all playing in an environment where losing has long been expected.

 

Most posters are responding to seven years of ineptitude. Botterill has had seven months to fix it.

He has a lot to fix and I think it will done incrementally.

 

He’s already decided to move on from Kane and most of us suspect Lehner. oReilly and Bogosian are open questions.

He’s figuring out which young pieces are worth developing around Jack and Risto and the older guys are just filling holes.

 

We will see 10 different players in next years starting lineup, and, unlike this year’s a number will actually be faces Botterill hopes will be here for more than cup of coffee.

 

Unlike the rest of us, JBot hasn’t been suffering for years.

Like it or not, this year is about evaluation for him. His team will start taking shape next year.

excellent.great post.

[eman]

You don't believe Eichel is playing the best hockey he's ever played as a Sabre?

 

You see the same 5 players that were on the ice last year for the PP.  You see them setting up in the zone the same as they have in the past.  You still think that Housley is to blame?  How does that work?  "Hey Phil, how come the same 5 guys on the power play can't score as much this year as last year?  What did you change?  Oh, nothing?  It's all your fault.  It's all your fault."

 

We've heard time and time again how Botterill is not going to bring players from the AHL up here.  So Housley has no one to demote/promote.  They've slowly been bringing some players up for limited stints but the roster, for this year is set.  Housley has scratched players who need to be better.  He's rewarded some of them who have played better.  There are not unlimited resources in the system and all moves can't be made.

 

Every indication right now screams that there is a locker room issue and it's not getting resolved.  Perhaps last year it was easy for the players to somehow blame Murray and Bylsma.  This year those focus points are gone and they realize it's all on them and it ups the ante.  The best coach in the world isn't going to fix every problem.  Players have to go and we'll have to wait for them to go.  It's not awesome.  It is what it is.

 

Do you even watch the games? Here is the biggest glaring error: They put no one in front of the opposing goaltender. In the odd instance that Reinhart goes there, he is weak and on his ass. Their shot taking is from the perimeter which is why opposing goaltenders all look like Vezina trophy winners against us and why the backups look outstanding (and the opposition play their back ups against us a lot!) We are near the bottom or at the bottom in goals scored. Yes it is on Phil and I believe coaching makes a huge difference. 

 

Remember how these boards loved Ryan O' Reilly, Kyle Okposo? Now these guys all of a sudden can't score. I bet you they will score once they're moved as can Kane. Then the posts will state: Why didn't they do that in a Sabres uni? Why? Because Phil is crap. You don't have to believe me now, I do believe we'll know the truth within 2 more seasons (both non-playoff seasons by the way. 10 years and counting. Organizational disgrace. 

[PASabreFan]

In what ways is he not a leader? He contributes more to the successes of his team (goals scored) than any other player in the world. He's the only one that seems to care most the time. He's only 21. Even if he's not yet, which we have literally no way to tell as we aren't in the locker room, he can certainly grow to be one. 

 

And do you have anything to suggest that he scores more points on empty nets than other players with a lot of points? Because I highly doubt it. Players like Stamkos on teams like Tampa get a lot more cracks at empty nets than we do. 

Is Eichel a Hart candidate? Just busting your chops... But the Hart is supposed to go to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team, so maybe. It's interesting to compare the trophy criteria for the Hart and Lindsay (formerly Pearson). The Lindsay plainly says it goes to the most outstanding player. Most valuable is a slightly different animal.

 

The empty net point always comes up — ya know. Rob once lambasted Miro Satan when Satan returned to Buffalo. He said Miro became an animal when the net was empty, trying to score. I would hope so! There are few bigger goals in the game. The fact Lindy put Miro out there in a critical situation says more about Satan's game than any crack by Rob.

Edited January 21, 2018 by PASabreFan

[eman]

Is Eichel a Hart candidate? Just busting your chops... But the Hart is supposed to go to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team, so maybe. It's interesting to compare the trophy criteria for the Hart and Lindsay (formerly Pearson). The Lindsay plainly says it goes to the most outstanding player. Most valuable is a slightly different animal.

 

The empty net point always comes up — ya know. Rob once lambasted Miro Satan when Satan returned to Buffalo. He said Miro became an animal when the net was empty, trying to score. I would hope so! There are few bigger goals in the game. The fact Lindy put Miro out there in a critical situation says more about Satan's game than any crack by Rob.

 

I miss Miro. He could score on the breakaway! (and Afinogenov!)

[Sabel79]

 

 

The empty net point always comes up — ya know. Rob once lambasted Miro Satan when Satan returned to Buffalo. He said Miro became an animal when the net was empty, trying to score. I would hope so! There are few bigger goals in the game. The fact Lindy put Miro out there in a critical situation says more about Satan's game than any crack by Rob.

I think Rayzor's limited grasp of English limited the critique.  He said, as I recall, "Satan would knock his grandmother over for an empty-net goal."  That's not the issue, it's that he would clearly not knock his grandmother over in most other situations. 

 

Also, he mastered the flamingo.  Elevated it to an absolute art form.    But I digress.

[LGR4GM]

Do you even watch the games? Here is the biggest glaring error: They put no one in front of the opposing goaltender. In the odd instance that Reinhart goes there, he is weak and on his ass. Their shot taking is from the perimeter which is why opposing goaltenders all look like Vezina trophy winners against us and why the backups look outstanding (and the opposition play their back ups against us a lot!) We are near the bottom or at the bottom in goals scored. Yes it is on Phil and I believe coaching makes a huge difference.

 

Remember how these boards loved Ryan O' Reilly, Kyle Okposo? Now these guys all of a sudden can't score. I bet you they will score once they're moved as can Kane. Then the posts will state: Why didn't they do that in a Sabres uni? Why? Because Phil is crap. You don't have to believe me now, I do believe we'll know the truth within 2 more seasons (both non-playoff seasons by the way. 10 years and counting. Organizational disgrace.

Actually their shot taking is similar to other teams and not all from the perimeter. The issue is they have the league worst shot percentage.

 

Okposo has something like 13 points in his last 17 games so?

 

Also we get it. You don't like Phil and think we'll go 10 years without playoffs.

Edited January 21, 2018 by SkuggaLiger

[eman]

Actually their shot taking is similar to other teams and not all from the perimeter. The issue is they have the league worst shot percentage.

 

Okposo has something like 13 points in his last 17 games so?

 

Also we get it. You don't like Phil and think we'll go 10 years without playoffs.

 

How do you figure their shot taking is similar to other teams? Other teams I watch have bodies screening the opposing goaltender (which at the NHL level you should have as any goaltender worth their salt should be able to stop most of what they are able to see)

 

My point on Okposo exactly. He will score much more regularly with someone else, as will O'Reilly. It just won't happen here. 

[LGR4GM]

How do you figure their shot taking is similar to other teams? Other teams I watch have bodies screening the opposing goaltender (which at the NHL level you should have as any goaltender worth their salt should be able to stop most of what they are able to see)

 

My point on Okposo exactly. He will score much more regularly with someone else, as will O'Reilly. It just won't happen here.

First. I said shots. Where they shoot from. They shoot from where everyone else does. You are correct that they don't screen the goalie like everyone else. They however are not taking more shots from the perimeter. There's an article in another thread that shows that.

 

Second, Okposo will score more regularly somewhere else? He's scoring regularly here. Okposo isn't the problem and might be one of the best players on this team.

[inkman]

(and Afinogenov!)

We have different memories

[dudacek]

How do you figure their shot taking is similar to other teams? Other teams I watch have bodies screening the opposing goaltender (which at the NHL level you should have as any goaltender worth their salt should be able to stop most of what they are able to see)

 

My point on Okposo exactly. He will score much more regularly with someone else, as will O'Reilly. It just won't happen here.

 

You know O’Reilly is scoring at the same pace this year as he’s always scored, right?

Same with Okposo if you take away the first month or two where he struggled to come back from the ICU?

[Iron Crotch]

Actually their shot taking is similar to other teams and not all from the perimeter. The issue is they have the league worst shot percentage.

 

Okposo has something like 13 points in his last 17 games so?

 

Also we get it. You don't like Phil and think we'll go 10 years without playoffs.

 

Yeah, from my perspective we have an entire defense corp that isn't a threat to score goals. And, we have two lines (3&4) that pretty much can't score goals. That makes us easy to defend. We have one really dangerous player - Jack. Put your top defenders out there against Jack and we don't have much secondary scoring to worry about. Folks can blame Phil all they want, but IMHO this roster is terrible.

[DarthEbriate]

This team could use a shooter like Miro -- he led the Sabres every year in scoring during the deepest heart of the dead-puck era and arguably never had a #1 center on the same roster. Miro would be awesome on Jack's wing. And of course, it's great for Gerbe or Eichel fight and claw for the empty-netter, but not Satan?

 

All nostalgia aside, this team doesn't show the drive or tenacity required on offense or defense, their passing is horrible and slow, and they've got spotty goaltending to boot. It's definitely the least fun roster to watch in years. To cap it all off, they're not even an interesting infighting train wreck. The blade is dulled.

[Marvelo]

I see they're showcasing Girgensons on the first line again. Any other team would have cut him years ago.

[inkman]

I see they're showcasing Girgensons on the first line again. Any other team would have cut him years ago.

Years ago he was their leading scorer

[mjd1001]

Players who really gave a damn today (not saying they played well necessarily):

 

Gorges

Falk

Jack

Kane

Nolan

 

All but one will not be on the team next year.  The guys who give a sh!t will be gone.  Next year, with many of the same leftover players, should we expect different results??  Insanity.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is what I see as players who are under contract for next season:

 

Forwards:

Eichel, O'Reilly, Okposo, Pominville, Rodrigues......Larson and Girgensons but at low dollar cost so it would be easy to walk away from them.

 

Defense:

Risto, Bogo, Scanella, McCabe, Beaulieu.

 

That is alot of potential to make major changes. Of course, Reinhart is restricted) but there are a lot of possible changes.  If, IF, a big move was made involving one of the guys under contract, you have even more room for changes.