2018 - 2019 Lineup

[Thorny]

33 minutes ago, Taro T said:

The more we hear about the plans for the upcoming season, the more it seems they're hoping for another top 5 pick.

Would be willing to go along w/ that being adequate IF we knew Dahlin was pencilled into Bogosian's slot when Bogosian suffers the inevitable 20-40 game injury.  We can almost assuredly assume that's not the case, so unless they have a final waiver wire day like the Aisles had when the Sabres had their pick, it isn't adequate.

I'm with you on this. I've held to the position that entering into the season with Bogosian in a top 4 role would be a major strike against Botterill, even if I honestly never really thought we'd get to that point. 

He last played 65 games 7 years ago, and his injuries are stacking up, and his games played is trending even further down. It doesn't matter at this point what they or anyone else hopes of Bogosian, one simply cannot look at his injury and games played history and have any sort of reasonable confidence that he's going to play more this year.

Relying on him in the top 4, again, is an early candidate for fatal flaw of this coming season.

[Thorny]

Dividing his 10 season career up into three, 3 year increments (omitted his rookie season where I am unsure of his playing situation, 47 NHL games, 5 in the AHL), and adjusting for the 12-13 lockout, looks like this:

'09-'11 - Averaged 72 games played per season

'12-'14 - Averaged 58 games played per season

'15-'17 - Averaged 46 games played per season

A steeply declining rate of games played from an already low starting point. 

Edited August 1, 2018 by Thorny

[pi2000]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'm with you on this. I've held to the position that entering into the season with Bogosian in a top 4 role would be a major strike against Botterill, even if I honestly never really thought we'd get to that point. 

He last played 65 games 7 years ago, and his injuries are stacking up, and his games played is trending even further down. It doesn't matter at this point what they or anyone else hopes of Bogosian, one simply cannot look at his injury and games played history and have any sort of reasonable confidence that he's going to play more this year.

Relying on him in the top 4, again, is an early candidate for fatal flaw of this coming season.

Agree 100%.    However, given his contract... they have no other choice to but to do everything in their power to get him healthy and back as a significant contributor.     He's untradeable.    With only 2 years left on his current deal, they have to be hoping he gets somewhat healthy and shows something.. anything positive, which may make him a tradeable asset at the deadline.

The other option is a buyout, which would result in a $2m cap hit for the next 4 seasons.    Not ideal, but something to consider if he can't stay healthy again.

[Thorny]

20 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Agree 100%.    However, given his contract... they have no other choice to but to do everything in their power to get him healthy and back as a significant contributor.     He's untradeable.    With only 2 years left on his current deal, they have to be hoping he gets somewhat healthy and shows something.. anything positive, which may make him a tradeable asset at the deadline.

The other option is a buyout, which would result in a $2m cap hit for the next 4 seasons.    Not ideal, but something to consider if he can't stay healthy again.

But don't the Sabres have plenty of cap space to work with? Are the Sabres, due to his 5 mil cap hit, obligated to pencil him into a top 4 role? If a second pairing replacement could be had, could they not bump him to third pair, or wherever, until the injury bug hits?

Or else, you make it seem as if the "Second Pair RHD Position and Salary Allotment" has been allocated to Bogo and we are stuck with him (in theory) filling that role for the next 2 seasons.

Is this a situation where Botterill can't upgrade Bogosian, or a situation where he won't? If it's the former (of which I remain skeptical), what is Botterill's excuse for providing a depth chart to Phil whereby the back-up to a Bogosian he'd ideally like to get rid of, starts and ends with Casey Nelson?

?

Edited August 1, 2018 by Thorny

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But don't the Sabres have plenty of cap space to work with? Are the Sabres, due to his 5 mil cap hit, obligated to pencil him into a top 4 role? If a second pairing replacement could be had, could they not bump him to third pair, or wherever, until the injury bug hits?

Or else, you make it seem as if the "Second Pair RHD Position and Salary Allotment" has been allocated to Bogo and we are stuck with him (in theory) filling that role for the next 2 seasons.

Is this a situation where Botterill can't upgrade Bogosian, or a situation where he won't?

Seems to be won't as his comments don't appear to be simply to up his trade value / establish ANY kind of a market for him.  They genuinely seem appreciative of his play when healthy.

Relying on that will be a problem.

[TrueBlueGED]

6 hours ago, Thorny said:

Vogl had an article up on twitter today that mentioned, and he reinforced it in the comments, that the Sabres intend for Dahlin to play on the left. He said Scandella and Dahlin have their spots locked down on the left, and that Guhle, McCabe, Beaulieu, and Hunwick are fighting it out for the remaining spot. 

He said the right side of the depth chart is set:

Ristolainen

Bogosian

Nelson

---

Adequate right side?

If that's how it turns out, I'm not happy with a single one of those players where they are slotted. 

4 hours ago, CallawaySabres said:

Bogo will not miss any significant time this year...book it. He will also turn out to be comeback player of the year for this team.

Avatar bet? 

5 hours ago, Eleven said:

That's a problem with relying on Nelson, not a problem with relying on Bogosian.  If he gets hurt, he gets hurt.  Until that happens, he's a fine player for a second pair.

I don't want Nelson penciled in as a regular, but teams can get by with a weak 3rd pair. Bogosian is a huge problem because, even healthy, he's not a top-4 on a good team. Enjoy the bottom of the standings? Then yea, sure, Bogo playing real minutes is fine. 

[TrueBlueGED]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Seems to be won't as his comments don't appear to be simply to up his trade value / establish ANY kind of a market for him.  They genuinely seem appreciative of his play when healthy.

Relying on that will be a problem.

And this, I think, is the crux of it. The braintrust likes Bogo's game. That's a gigantic miss in terms of assessment, but I've accepted it. 

[nfreeman]

I don’t think JBott is planning on Bogo staying healthy.  I think it’s  likely that JBott and Howie have decided that they’d rather shift one of their other depth defenseman to his off hand if and when Bogo gets hurt than bring in someone from outside the organization.  E.g. they think someone like Guhle, McCabe or Pilut can win the opportunity to move over and into the top 6.  

[dudacek]

What is Bogosian’s actual injury history? I mean what has he hurt and how?

I don’t recall him having a chronic issue (a Bobby Orr knees thing); isn’t it one unrelated thing after another?

Does he play reckless hockey? Have brittle bones or loose joints? Is he a hypochondriac? Horribly unlucky?

I can’t recall anything quite like it.

[TrueBlueGED]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What is Bogosian’s actual injury history? I mean what has he hurt and how?

I don’t recall him having a chronic issue (a Bobby Orr knees thing); isn’t it one unrelated thing after another?

Does he play reckless hockey? Have brittle bones or loose joints? Is he a hypochondriac? Horribly unlucky?

I can’t recall anything quite like it.

Hasn't it been almost exclusively lower body stuff? A knee here, a groin there, a side serving of hamstring. 

Edit: one of our resident doctors can likely tell me if this theory has any grounding in reality, but I've sometimes wondered whether he has too much muscle mass and would actually benefit from slimming down some. 

Edited August 2, 2018 by TrueBlueGED

[jsb]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Dividing his 10 season career up into three, 3 year increments (omitted his rookie season where I am unsure of his playing situation, 47 NHL games, 5 in the AHL), and adjusting for the 12-13 lockout, looks like this:

'09-'11 - Averaged 72 games played per season

'12-'14 - Averaged 58 games played per season

'15-'17 - Averaged 46 games played per season

A steeply declining rate of games played from an already low starting point. 

It's always fun to read someone's BS narrative who doesn't give the full information on it.

9-11 is correct

12-13 completely skewers your take because the NHL only played approximately a 1/2 season that year.

13 thru 17 he averaged just over 60 games. 

Last year again screws it up because he basically was out over 75% of the year. 

I understand we'd all like to see him stay healthy but don't make up BS because you don't like the guy. 

Oh and by the way are you going to throw BS on Jack E. also?? because he's played less games than Bogosian did in his first 3 seasons.

[dudacek]

This one was hip surgery. He hurt it in camp, got healthy enough to play 18, but was not fully recovered and aggravated the same injury in practice.

End of last season, it was a rib, missed five games. Before that, 20 with a sprained MCL and he missed a few games to start the year with a bad groin.

He finished the 15-16 year out with an undisclosed “lower body injury” ending a great run of offence that started at the all-star break. He missed the first two months of the season with another “undisclosed lower body injury suffered in training camp.

He finished the 14-15 year with another “nagging lower body injury.”

***

Sabres under Murray/Bylsma didn’t give a lot of details on injuries, but the history does make you wonder if there is a nagging hip/groin thing, and he sure seems prone to aggravating it at camp. Speaks to preparation and perhaps a degenerative condition. I wonder if this spring’s surgery could have been aimed at correcting the cause.

Edited August 2, 2018 by dudacek

[darksabre]

Re: Bogo

I think if we can play him on the bottom pair with less ice time he'll be capable of putting up a full season. I think playing top line minutes is too hard for him and he ends up being too reckless to be effective. If he can play less minutes he'll be a tolerably useful defender. 

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, jsb said:

It's always fun to read someone's BS narrative who doesn't give the full information on it.

9-11 is correct

12-13 completely skewers your take because the NHL only played approximately a 1/2 season that year.

13 thru 17 he averaged just over 60 games. 

Last year again screws it up because he basically was out over 75% of the year. 

I understand we'd all like to see him stay healthy but don't make up BS because you don't like the guy. 

Oh and by the way are you going to throw BS on Jack E. also?? because he's played less games than Bogosian did in his first 3 seasons.

I factored in the lockout season and adjusted accordingly. Which I mentioned in my post. Maybe try actually reading before claiming "narrative" BS.

I didn't measure the '13-'17 block, but if you are referring to the '13-'14 season through '16-'17, seeing as how you seem to mention last year separately, his game totals in those 4 seasons are: 55, 62, 64, and 56 games played. That's an average of 59 games.  So your numbers are wrong.

I'd send your post a nice big "L" if I could. 

Edited August 2, 2018 by Thorny

[jsb]

8 hours ago, Thorny said:

I factored in the lockout season and adjusted accordingly. Which I mentioned in my post. Maybe try actually reading before claiming "narrative" BS.

I didn't measure the '13-'17 block, but if you are referring to the '13-'14 season through '16-'17, seeing as how you seem to mention last year separately, his game totals in those 4 seasons are: 55, 62, 64, and 56 games played. That's an average of 59 games.  So your numbers are wrong.

I'd send your post a nice big "L" if I could. 

Why yes my math may be off with 60 from what averages out to be 59 but that's still a bit closer to the thruth than 46. Is there any way to possibly talk about the Sabres D without the constant bombardment of Bogosian's injury history. I know what, why don't you start a topic  "Bogosian and his inevitable injury" so you and everybody else who have the inability to talk about Bogosian without talking about it can OCD on it and not bore the living sh!t out of everyone else. 

[Hoss]

Worth noting Bogo feels healthy and confident enough to be playing in the Beauty League right now. Playing in on-ice games in the offseason is a good sign.

[nfreeman]

11 hours ago, jsb said:

It's always fun to read someone's BS narrative who doesn't give the full information on it.

9-11 is correct

12-13 completely skewers your take because the NHL only played approximately a 1/2 season that year.

13 thru 17 he averaged just over 60 games. 

Last year again screws it up because he basically was out over 75% of the year. 

I understand we'd all like to see him stay healthy but don't make up BS because you don't like the guy. 

Oh and by the way are you going to throw BS on Jack E. also?? because he's played less games than Bogosian did in his first 3 seasons.

 

48 minutes ago, jsb said:

Why yes my math may be off with 60 from what averages out to be 59 but that's still a bit closer to the thruth than 46. Is there any way to possibly talk about the Sabres D without the constant bombardment of Bogosian's injury history. I know what, why don't you start a topic  "Bogosian and his inevitable injury" so you and everybody else who have the inability to talk about Bogosian without talking about it can OCD on it and not bore the living sh!t out of everyone else. 

 

Both of these are pretty obnoxious.

[Broken Ankles]

14 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

If that's how it turns out, I'm not happy with a single one of those players where they are slotted. 

Avatar bet? 

I don't want Nelson penciled in as a regular, but teams can get by with a weak 3rd pair. Bogosian is a huge problem because, even healthy, he's not a top-4 on a good team. Enjoy the bottom of the standings? Then yea, sure, Bogo playing real minutes is fine. 

****News Flash****  The Sabres are not a good team.   Nor will they be very good next year either.  Probably a bottom 10 team.  My commentary on Bogo is like many, disappointed at the multiple injuries and lack of play for Buffalo since his arrival.   But I agree with "11", he is adequate for the second pair on the right.   Let's look at the Vegas Golden Knights.   They had Deryk Englelland on their second line right side. One might even say they are a "good" team.   Bogo when healthy is better in skating, foot speed and equal in strength.  Its amazing how a pairing with young and superior player like Shea Theodore can mask his weakness.   To a lesser extent, Brayden McNabb (whom we all know was given away by Tiny Tim along with 2 second's for Hudson Failure Fasching), also plays this role on the first pairing with a young and fast skater Nate Schmidt.   So is it implausible to think that if paired with Rasmus, Bogo could not excel?    And if he is injured again, or does not, then he will be a perfect candidate for a buyout NEXT YEAR (not this).   Where the length of the buyout does not impact us when we are a playoff ready team.  

[LGR4GM]

I think those are good points. 1 thing, they aren't buying out Bogo. If they didn't do it next year, I can't Botterill doing it next. Why extend a players cap hit an extra year? Sure it is less but even still why not just eat it for 1 more year and be done? 

[dudacek]

It’s pretty clear the Sabres like Bogo a lot more than Sabrespace does.

Love to see him reward their faith, but even if he doesn’t, there is no reason to burn future cap space on a buyout.

[Broken Ankles]

54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think those are good points. 1 thing, they aren't buying out Bogo. If they didn't do it next year, I can't Botterill doing it next. Why extend a players cap hit an extra year? Sure it is less but even still why not just eat it for 1 more year and be done? 

Two reasons why 2019/2020 make more sense.  First is actual cash payout.  Unlike the Sabres where Uncle Terry shells out all the cash up front, other teams back load their contracts.  Bogo stands to make $6M next year.  the 2/3's rule saves Pegula $2M.   If he is injured  again this year (and I'm banking on a healthy semi-successful season), and you have development from others that make him expendable, why not?    Second is the cap relief realized in 2019.   Four Million dollars in immediate  cap savings that can be used for a FA or  higher salaried D-man via trade to replace his second pairing.   The downside is only a $2M hit in 2020.  This is insignificant when you look at the UFA's coming off the books that year.  Sheary, Hunwick, Scandella, Sobotka and Wilson for approx. $14M.  

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/zach-bogosian/2019-06-15

[LGR4GM]

Why do I need to save 4mil in cap in 2019 though? It is insignificant then as well. There simply aren't any large contracts to dish out where I need that extra 4million. In 2020, I might want that 2mil or in reality the 5.3mil because Bogo is gone completely. The only important players to sign next offseason are Jake McCabe , Bapatise and CJ smith. That is if all of them progress. The Sabres will most assuredly have the capspace. I'd rather pay him for 1 more additional season as opposed to 2 when I think that every year from here on out we will be getting better. 9.5mil comes off the books with just Pommers and Moulson leaving. There is so much capspace already that I can't see Bogo being the deciding factor for anything. 

Edited August 2, 2018 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

It’s pretty clear the Sabres like Bogo a lot more than Sabrespace does.

Love to see him reward their faith, but even if he doesn’t, there is no reason to burn future cap space on a buyout.

Can’t buy him out anyway.  That period ended on June 30th.   Since we didn’t have anyone in arbitration, we aren’t eligible to do an out of period buyout to get cap complaint.  In addition, I don’t think injured players are eligible for buyouts.  Unless Bogo had passed a physical before June 30th I doubt he was eligible for a buyout this season.  

 

[Broken Ankles]

49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Can’t buy him out anyway.  That period ended on June 30th.   Since we didn’t have anyone in arbitration, we aren’t eligible to do an out of period buyout to get cap complaint.  In addition, I don’t think injured players are eligible for buyouts.  Unless Bogo had passed a physical before June 30th I doubt he was eligible for a buyout this season.  

 

LGR4GM and I are talking about June 15th 2019.  Not this year.  

[LGR4GM]

Correct. Should he be bought out next summer. We differ but at the same time, I don't think it matters if he is or not. 2 years to Mittelstadts next deal and 3 years for Dahlin. Those are the 2 big ones we have to concern ourselves with. I suppose Tage Thompson could blow up in the next 2 years. 

6 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

LGR4GM and I are talking about June 15th 2019.  Not this year.  

Correct

1 minute ago, Eleven said:

He didn't tell us that he had set a date.  But congrats!

There is a date but I am not telling when.