2018 - 2019 Lineup

[That Aud Smell]

^

McCabe's regression makes the list of reasons why the team continued to stink like a polecat.

[Randall Flagg]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the Sabres defence should be better, but Botterill has certainly left a lot to chance.

The way I see it, there are two top-four defencemen on the roster (Risto, Scandella) and three who could be.

Counting on Brittle Bones Bogosian to be one seems foolish for reasons well-discussed around here.

Counting on Dahlin to be another is a better bet, but the kid is just 18.

McCabe is the other. Two years ago he looked the part. last year he very much did not. How much of that was related to the surgery he put off? He is definitely among the crowd of people that Botterill was talking about when he was urging more players to step out of the shadows and into leadership roles.

Is he healthy? Has he had the best summer of fitness and preparation in his life? Is he mature? Is he any good?

If we are going to improve, he is one of the unsung pieces that has to be part of that.

I think our defense, as critical as I am of its current construction, is closer to baseline competence than our forwards are at the moment. My annual summer project fell apart this time, but involved watching them closely for a few games, and even flawed guys have one or two things they did really well. Improving in switches and coverage awareness, and an increase in confidence (not even ability, which we'll get in spades with Dahlin), and assertion on the breakout, would make a huge difference. There are several guys who are legitimately great at transition breakups (Scandella is far better than the stat says he is, because sometimes he'll press the guy to the outside and the separation doesn't happen until down by the goal line, when I counted those instances he was like 50% better than zone entry stats say he was), McCabe is pretty good at stuffs above the blue line, and when Risto has support and isn't fatigued he's legitimately good at finding the short, crisp, correct pass out of the zone. If the forwards could do something with it, Risto is less fatigued and makes fewer mistakes. 

Progression from Guhle to full-time NHLer adds another interesting skating element that other teams have to adapt to which will make things easier on his partner. 

But when I watch Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi leaving their zone, it's not that their accuracy is in another league from Rasmus Ristolainen. It's better, I'm not saying Risto is that good, but the real difference comes in the assertion and trust in their own decision-making that only comes with repetition and success on the part of the forwards. When our D get nervous and defer this task to their partner, they do it accurately. The attitude needs to change more than the skill does (which could use some boost too)

[pi2000]

9 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

^

McCabe's regression makes the list of reasons why the team continued to stink like a polecat.

I, for one, thought he played extremely well in the weeks just before his injury.    First half of the season he was putrid, but he really came around just before his injury.    He's a huge piece of the puzzle.

[TrueBlueGED]

53 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I assume you think McCabe is the weak link in the proposed scenario?  I.e. Dahlin-Scandy becoming the top pair isn't implausible, right?

I think McCabe is going to have a good bounceback year, and will contribute more than Bogo, Nelson, Beaulieu and Guhle, and probably Pilut.  If that's right, he could seize that #4 slot.

 

I do think it's implausible that Dahlin takes Risto's job this season. I'm also not sure I'd even want it to happen--I want Dahlin in a spot to maximize his offensive abilities. Let the defensive responsibility come with age. I think there's a near zero percent probability that Housley feeds Dahlin 27 minutes and bumps Risto to 22. 

Furthermore, I don't think McCabe seizing the #4 job is inherently a good thing. He may just be the best of the bad. 

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think our defense, as critical as I am of its current construction, is closer to baseline competence than our forwards are at the moment. My annual summer project fell apart this time, but involved watching them closely for a few games, and even flawed guys have one or two things they did really well. Improving in switches and coverage awareness, and an increase in confidence (not even ability, which we'll get in spades with Dahlin), and assertion on the breakout, would make a huge difference. There are several guys who are legitimately great at transition breakups (Scandella is far better than the stat says he is, because sometimes he'll press the guy to the outside and the separation doesn't happen until down by the goal line, when I counted those instances he was like 50% better than zone entry stats say he was), McCabe is pretty good at stuffs above the blue line, and when Risto has support and isn't fatigued he's legitimately good at finding the short, crisp, correct pass out of the zone. If the forwards could do something with it, Risto is less fatigued and makes fewer mistakes. 

Progression from Guhle to full-time NHLer adds another interesting skating element that other teams have to adapt to which will make things easier on his partner. 

But when I watch Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi leaving their zone, it's not that their accuracy is in another league from Rasmus Ristolainen. It's better, I'm not saying Risto is that good, but the real difference comes in the assertion and trust in their own decision-making that only comes with repetition and success on the part of the forwards. When our D get nervous and defer this task to their partner, they do it accurately. The attitude needs to change more than the skill does (which could use some boost too)

There is real lack of trust in the system and in each other.

Housley spoke about it, but that clip Charlie posted a while back really brought it home.

One of the things we are doing right is attempting to develop defencemen who are strong in this area - Guhle, Nelson, Pilut, Borgen and even Hickey - even Beaulieu - all seem to have that lateral mobility to force the rusher defensively. It’s a matter of execution.

I have to give Botterill credit for his emphasis on fixing this area of our team’s makeup.

Edited July 19, 2018 by dudacek

[dudacek]

According to the Athletic’s fancystats ranking, the Sabres had one of the better off-seasons in the league.

methodology here:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/13/measuring-single-game-productivity-an-introduction-to-game-score/

Buffalo Sabres: B+
In: Carter Hutton, Conor Sheary, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, Matt Hunwick
Out: Ryan O’Reilly, Robin Lehner, Chad Johnson, Jacob Josefson, Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Nolan
Net Value Added: +2.6 wins

I’m just as surprised that a team that traded one of their best players grades out this high.

While it rarely makes sense to trade top-tier players, Buffalo has internal replacements for Ryan O’Reilly on the way (hello, Casey Mittelstadt) and was in desperate need of capable depth. Letting go of Jacob Josefson, Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Nolan and replacing them with the team’s O’Reilly trade haul of Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, and Tage Thompson should bridge the gap left by O’Reilly’s void. I’d still rather have O’Reilly – there are other avenues to obtain depth that don’t involve trading difference makers like him – but I don’t think the Sabres are that much worse off based on who the new guys are replacing.

Buffalo also added Conor Sheary to the mix in a nice buy-low trade with Pittsburgh, giving them a winger who has a decent history of producing well with superstar centres. The Sabres also upgraded in net with the addition of Carter Hutton, though his small body of work does carry some risk.

The Sabres should be better off next season and took a step closer to relevancy – adding a franchise defender in Rasmus Dahlin at the draft certainly helps, too – but there’s still a lot of work left to do in Buffalo.

[pi2000]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

According to the Athletic’s fancystats ranking, the Sabres had one of the better off-seasons in the league.

methodology here:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/13/measuring-single-game-productivity-an-introduction-to-game-score/

Buffalo Sabres: B+
In: Carter Hutton, Conor Sheary, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, Matt Hunwick
Out: Ryan O’Reilly, Robin Lehner, Chad Johnson, Jacob Josefson, Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Nolan
Net Value Added: +2.6 wins

I’m just as surprised that a team that traded one of their best players grades out this high.

While it rarely makes sense to trade top-tier players, Buffalo has internal replacements for Ryan O’Reilly on the way (hello, Casey Mittelstadt) and was in desperate need of capable depth. Letting go of Jacob Josefson, Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Nolan and replacing them with the team’s O’Reilly trade haul of Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, and Tage Thompson should bridge the gap left by O’Reilly’s void. I’d still rather have O’Reilly – there are other avenues to obtain depth that don’t involve trading difference makers like him – but I don’t think the Sabres are that much worse off based on who the new guys are replacing.

Buffalo also added Conor Sheary to the mix in a nice buy-low trade with Pittsburgh, giving them a winger who has a decent history of producing well with superstar centres. The Sabres also upgraded in net with the addition of Carter Hutton, though his small body of work does carry some risk.

The Sabres should be better off next season and took a step closer to relevancy – adding a franchise defender in Rasmus Dahlin at the draft certainly helps, too – but there’s still a lot of work left to do in Buffalo.

Every time I see this I can't help but think how much better this team would've been with Eichel/ROR/Mittlestadt down the middle, instead of just Eichel/Mittlestadt.    ROR would be the premiere 3rd line center in the league... face-off master, PK, etc.. the guy can do it all... leave the scoring for Eichel and MIttlestadt, then having the ability to rollout ROR in a 3rd line role to win draws and shut down other team's top lines would be outstanding.    We'll never know.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

That font?

Is that you typing duda, or is it the article?

Sounds / reads like you, so I will give you a big thumbs up.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, N S said:

That font?

Is that you typing duda, or is it the article?

Sounds / reads like you, so I will give you a big thumbs up.

It’s the article. Straight cut and paste.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

It’s the article. Straight cut and paste.

Oh, well.  I don't think there is anyway to remove the thumbs up thingie, even if I really wanted too.

[Taro T]

40 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I do think it's implausible that Dahlin takes Risto's job this season. I'm alino not sure I'd even want it to happen--I want Dahlin in a spot to maximize his offensive abilities. Let the defensive responsibility come with age. I think there's a near zero percent probability that Housley feeds Dahlin 27 minutes and bumps Risto ido 22. 

Furthermore, I don't think McCabe seizing the #4 job is inherently a good thing. He may just be the best of the bad. 

Ristolainen will still get the most minutes of any D-man.  But let's say that drops to 24/ game rather than 27 like it has been, paired w/ McCabe primarily until crunch time where Scandella goes from teaching Dahlin the ropes to back into top pairing (say last 2-3 shifts of the game).  McCabe ends up w/ about 20 minutes, Dahlin close to 22, Scandella somewherein 22-24 minutes.  If both PP units use 4 forwards, & they average 4 PP's/ game, that eats 7-8 more D minutes/ game.  That would leave the 3rd pairing only needing to eat 12 minutes apiece.  They'd probably be good for 14-16, so they SHOULD be able to work towards making those pairings (w/ Dahlin-Scandella eventually becoming the primary pair sometime mid-'19-'20 season) their go-to pairings until Guhle, Pilut, or somebody else can force their way ahead of McCabe (& eventually Scandella in an ideal world).

So, not a chance in heck Housley tries it.

16 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Every time I see this I can't help but think how much better this team would've been with Eichel/ROR/Mittlestadt down the middle, instead of just Eichel/Mittlestadt.    ROR would be the premiere 3rd line center in the league... face-off master, PK, etc.. the guy can do it all... leave the scoring for Eichel and MIttlestadt, then having the ability to rollout ROR in a 3rd line role to win draws and shut down other team's top lines would be outstanding.    We'll never know.

Absolutely.  But, water under the bridge now.

[LTS]

16 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Our franchise is pretty stupid 

Any fan with some time can sit down with the tape, the stats, and nail down exactly what is wrong with our team, and could have done so many times in the last decade better than the team itself did. Instead we've decided to let the add-by-subtract lottery wheel fall on... O'Reilly?.... and are charging forward with the same actual hockey related problems we've had since tanking.

Risto will have his 60 point pace through thanksgiving fall to the low-mid 40s, will average 26 a night, there will be three dumb fan-least-favorite defensemen in every single lineup this season, kids and depth will struggle to score, maybe not as much, but we're down to 2-maybe-3 top six players because that's how we decided to fix it slightly

This season is going to be interesting.  I'm almost more interested in seeing how accurate you are over what the Sabres do.  I have a fear that if they actually play well that your head may explode.  So, there is a downside to this exercise.  If they fail as you predict, then your depression will take greater hold.  Hmmm, is there a possible positive outcome to this?  ?

The psychology of sport will certainly be an aspect of the team next season.

 

[LGR4GM]

I think Guhle and Pilut have chances at the top 4 by years end. That left side is going to be insanely competitive for spots. 

[Randall Flagg]

14 minutes ago, LTS said:

This season is going to be interesting.  I'm almost more interested in seeing how accurate you are over what the Sabres do.  I have a fear that if they actually play well that your head may explode.  So, there is a downside to this exercise.  If they fail as you predict, then your depression will take greater hold.  Hmmm, is there a possible positive outcome to this?  ?

The psychology of sport will certainly be an aspect of the team next season.

 

Whether or not a positive outcome for my mental state is possible has no bearing on my analysis of a situation

And my stance is well documented to allow for things going well. If they do, we will have defied the odds and finally gotten a bunch of unknowns to go our way at once. I'll always say it can happen, because it can. But if things of the McCabe, Risto, depth nature etc. stay the same as they have been, like we've seen each of the past two seasons, we won't have a fun time

[TrueBlueGED]

25 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Ristolainen will still get the most minutes of any D-man.  But let's say that drops to 24/ game rather than 27 like it has been, paired w/ McCabe primarily until crunch time where Scandella goes from teaching Dahlin the ropes to back into top pairing (say last 2-3 shifts of the game).  McCabe ends up w/ about 20 minutes, Dahlin close to 22, Scandella somewherein 22-24 minutes.  If both PP units use 4 forwards, & they average 4 PP's/ game, that eats 7-8 more D minutes/ game.  That would leave the 3rd pairing only needing to eat 12 minutes apiece.  They'd probably be good for 14-16, so they SHOULD be able to work towards making those pairings (w/ Dahlin-Scandella eventually becoming the primary pair sometime mid-'19-'20 season) their go-to pairings until Guhle, Pilut, or somebody else can force their way ahead of McCabe (& eventually Scandella in an ideal world).

So, not a chance in heck Housley tries it.

You were convincing me. You really were. I was feeling better. And then you ripped it all away at the end. You're a monster. 

[LTS]

19 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Whether or not a positive outcome for my mental state is possible has no bearing on my analysis of a situation

And my stance is well documented to allow for things going well. If they do, we will have defied the odds and finally gotten a bunch of unknowns to go our way at once. I'll always say it can happen, because it can. But if things of the McCabe, Risto, depth nature etc. stay the same as they have been, like we've seen each of the past two seasons, we won't have a fun time

You seemingly took that far more personally than it was intended.  I'm not questioning anything about your statements or predictions.  I'm legitimately curious.  (and also concerned about your mental health!)

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, LTS said:

 You seemingly took that far more personally than it was intended.  I'm not questioning anything about your statements or predictions.  I'm legitimately curious.  (and also concerned about your mental health!)

I didn't mean to make it sound like I took it personally, my punctuation should probably be more properly employed. 

And yes, I will shamelessly weasel out of any possibility that I can be declared wrong ?

I'm still optimistic long term because of Jack, Sam, Dahlin, and Casey. I really like deez guyz.

I'm concerned about this season because I don't think another bad season for Jack, Sam, Risto specifically will just be another 'learning' season that 'won't affect them when the rest of the team and prospects are developed and ready.' Because year 4 is a big deal. It gets harder and harder to justify a bad team the older these guys get, and it makes the tank more and more devastating as that number gets higher. 

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Take him over Eichel... hell we could have had Boeser and Eichel. But nooooooo we got Robin f####g Lehner instead. I will never not be bitter about this. 

You take Boeser over Jack?

4 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

That would be fantastic, and the best possible outcome. I also think it's more likely that Jim Kelly comes out of retirement and quarterbacks the Bills to the Super Bowl. 

You think Jim Kelly coming out of retirement and beating the Patriots is more likely than a true Franchise caliber D-man seizing a top pair spot several months in, and a player you've said showed top 4 potential reaching that level? 

4 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

If McCabe becomes McAvoy it looks pretty good, otherwise it still looks below average

No, not really.

In that scenario, Dahlin has outright seized the top pair spot. If he's doing that, that early, it's safe to say he's already demonstrating a fair bit of what made him a #1 overall pick, consistently. Your first pair is therefore good (in this scenario, Dahlin belongs there) and the second paring with Ristolainen (where he belongs) is going to be pretty good, even with McCabe only playing like a true #4, as was specified in the scenario. 

If a defence with a legitimate franchise D man deservedly garnering top pair minutues, and a second pair with a player like Ristolainen,  is below average, what is average? A top 4 consisting of 2 or 3 franchise D-men?

Edited July 19, 2018 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You take Boeser over Jack?

You think Jim Kelly coming out of retirement and beating the Patriots is more likely than a true Franchise caliber D-man seizing a top pair spot several months in, and a player you've said showed top 4 potential reaching that level? 

No, not really.

In that scenario, Dahlin has outright seized the top pair spot. If he's doing that, that early, it's safe to say he's already demonstrating a fair bit of what made him a #1 overall pick, consistently. Your first pair is therefore good (in this scenario, Dahlin belongs there) and the second paring with Ristolainen (where he belongs) is going to be pretty good, even with McCabe only playing like a true #4, as was specified in the scenario. 

If a defence with a legitimate franchise D man deservedly garnering top pair minutues, and a second pair with a player like Ristolainen,  is below average, what is average? A top 4 consisting of 2 or 3 franchise D-men?

Well McCabe is probably our 4D anyway because the guys behind him are hot trash, but really at this point his most recent hockey shows he's a 5-6-7. Even if he's a 5 beating out our other 6es, we still have a 3-4 in Scandella at 2, Risto in his right spot, and I guesssssssss Dahlin couuuuuuuuuuuuld be a true 1D this year, but you can also seize the "1D spot" on this team simply by not being caved in as bad as Risto at ES, which isn't hard, and playing the opposite side of our 3-4 D in the 2 spot. 

Basically, the only way I can picture 
Scandella-Dahlin
McCabe-Risto 

top 4 being GOOD (what I think is good might be different from what you're talking about, if yours is more relative to past Sabres iterations) is if McCabe is of the nature of younger D on the second pair of good defenses, which he's currently miles from, and Dahlin is so good as a 1 that 3-4 Scandella is a serviceable top pairing guy. Which I just don't think is likely even if he justifies that spot in this lineup. 

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

You were convincing me. You really were. I was feeling better. And then you ripped it all away at the end. You're a monster. 

Sorry. :p

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Well McCabe is probably our 4D anyway because the guys behind him are hot trash, but really at this point his most recent hockey shows he's a 5-6-7. Even if he's a 5 beating out our other 6es, we still have a 3-4 in Scandella at 2, Risto in his right spot, and I guesssssssss Dahlin couuuuuuuuuuuuld be a true 1D this year, but you can also seize the "1D spot" on this team simply by not being caved in as bad as Risto at ES, which isn't hard, and playing the opposite side of our 3-4 D in the 2 spot. 

Basically, the only way I can picture 
Scandella-Dahlin
McCabe-Risto 

top 4 being GOOD (what I think is good might be different from what you're talking about, if yours is more relative to past Sabres iterations) is if McCabe is of the nature of younger D on the second pair of good defenses, which he's currently miles from, and Dahlin is so good as a 1 that 3-4 Scandella is a serviceable top pairing guy. Which I just don't think is likely even if he justifies that spot in this lineup. 

That's fair.

I was just operating under the terms of the scenario in which Dahlin seizes the top pair spot legitimately. We can agree that may not be particularly likely year one, but in the scenario where it does happen, I think we can agree Risto is probably an above average second pair D-man (I think?), so Dahlin legitimately surpassing him and taking that number one spot leaves us with a pretty good first pair. 

If that first pair is slightly below average next year in this scenario, because Dahlin is just a "regular" top pair guy at that point, and Scandella is realistically a second pair d-man, I still think it balances out to "average" with Ristolainen being slightly above average on pair 2, and again, McCabe is a legit 4 in the scenario. 

There isn't a huge discrepancy here, as I'm saying only saying average, but I'll stand firm on that in a scenario in which Dahlin is a legit top pair guy next season.

Edited July 19, 2018 by Thorny

[Thorny]

What that does illustrate is that Botterill has currently left the defense behind the 8-ball to start next season, as two unlikely things would need to happen for our defense to even be average (Dahlin earning top pair minutes legitimately at 18, McCabe cementing himself as a true 4).

I would have much preferred a move or two more to allow the D to start from a place of strength, rather than looking at an uphill climb. 

 

[Doohickie]

Eh.  We're not even in training camp yet.  I wouldn't be surprised to see JBot adjust the defense.

[dudacek]

Guys, you are forgetting that is was our D last year, in order of games played.

82 Scandella

73 Ristolainen

59 Beaulieu

53 McCabe

47 Antipin

46 Falk

37 Nelson

34 Gorges

 

I know health will always be an issue, but the following has to be a better top 8.

Ristolainen

Dahlin

Scandella

McCabe

Bogosian

Nelson

Hunwick

Guhle/Pilut 

[Randall Flagg]

It's the same but with Dahlin. 

Pilut the wildcard I have high hopes for.