How much should Kane' s extension be?

[Thorny]

I agree with this.  Very few players in the league who score 25+ goals a year are as hard to play against as Kane.  He is the kind of guy you want in a playoff series.  His speed and aggression will give the other team's D fits.  When the Sabres make the playoffs, I want a player like him on the team.  I would do 6x6 years.  Assuming he is playing well and no problems, sign him to that contract before the trade deadline.  If not, move him.  Cant let a player like him walk for nothing

Perfection.

[7+6=13]

I think if he plays anything like he did last season, he easily gets $7M

 

You could be right but I just don't see a player that has had more goals than assists 5 of his 8 years easily getting 7 mil - and needing that many shots to get the goals. 

 

I like Kane and I'd prefer to sign him but he's not worth 7 mil to me.  He's got some intangibles and I like them but those lack of assists jump off the page to me.

 

I just don't think I can pay that for 20 and 15 then 28 and 15 or I'd have to be 100% sure it's a line mate issue.

Edited September 19, 2017 by 7+6=13

[korab rules]

You could be right but I just don't see a player that has had more goals than assists 5 of his 8 years easily getting 7 mil - and needing that many shots to get the goals.

NHL GM's get really stupid on July 1.

[WildCard]

You could be right but I just don't see a player that has had more goals than assists 5 of his 8 years easily getting 7 mil - and needing that many shots to get the goals. 

I mean Ladd got $5.5 :lol:

[dudacek]

I think if he plays anything like he did last season, he easily gets $7M

 

He's not as good a player — as productive or as safe an investment — as Okposo or Lucic.

They each got $6 million per over seven years. Even allowing for inflation, who is going to invest nearly $50 milion in Kane?

Make him one of the top five highest-paid  LWs in hockey?

[WildCard]

He's not as good a player — as productive or as safe an investment — as Okposo or Lucic.

They each got $6 million per over seven years. Even allowing for inflation, who is going to invest nearly $50 milion in Kane?

Make him one of the top five highest-paid  LWs in hockey?

He scores. People fall in love with goals. He hits 30 goals this year and he's going to get paid

[dudacek]

He scores. People fall in love with goals. He hits 30 goals this year and he's going to get paid

 

He'll get paid. Probably have a lot of teams interested at Okposo numbers.

But that was a serious question: what team is going to pay Kane $50 million in a cap world to be their best winger? That's best winger money.

You won't see many teams paying their number two winger that much, especially if they've already got strong centres and D to pay.

Edited September 19, 2017 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

I'm. Not paying that for 7 years. Hell no

[Taro T]

NHL GM's get really stupid on July 1.

Yes, they do.

 

Barring this year's injury being worse than his typical 20-gamish one, wouldn't be surprised to see him get $7 for 6 or 7 years.

[WildCard]

He'll get paid. Probably have a lot of teams interested at Okposo numbers.

But that was a serious question: what team is going to pay Kane $50 million in a cap world to be their best winger? That's best winger money.

You won't see many teams paying their number two winger that much, especially if they've already got strong centres and D to pay.

So right now we have

 

Ovechkin : 9.5

 

Benn: 9.5

 

Nash: 7.5

 

Sedin: 7

 

and for RW

 

Kane: 10.5

 

Pery: 8.6

 

Voracek: 8.2

 

Tarasenko: 7.5

 

Ryan: 7.25

 

 

So indeed it looks like you are right. Appears 6-7 is a much more reasonable prediction for him

[LGR4GM]

You don't overpay wingers unless they are great. Bobby Ryan is a perfect example of why not.

[7+6=13]

He scores. People fall in love with goals. He hits 30 goals this year and he's going to get paid

 

If we offered him 6M, I think he'd sign right now.  I don't think we're going even that high.  I think Kane could be in a real corner where the only big money he gets offered is by really bad or aging teams and he'll be faced with having to suck throughout his 20's.

 

If he scores 30 with 15 assists I don't think he's getting paid what you think.

[WildCard]

If we offered him 6M, I think he'd sign right now.  I don't think we're going even that high.  I think Kane could be in a real corner where the only big money he gets offered is by really bad or aging teams and he'll be faced with having to suck throughout his 20's.

 

If he scores 30 with 15 assists I don't think he's getting paid what you think.

I don't think he is either, hence my listing of wingers making $7M+ and my conclusion at the end

[7+6=13]

I don't think he is either, hence my listing of wingers making $7M+ and my conclusion at the end

 

My fault, I see where you changed your thought on easily getting $7M after your list post.

Edited September 19, 2017 by 7+6=13

[nfreeman]

If we offered him 6M, I think he'd sign right now. I don't think we're going even that high. I think Kane could be in a real corner where the only big money he gets offered is by really bad or aging teams and he'll be faced with having to suck throughout his 20's.

 

If he scores 30 with 15 assists I don't think he's getting paid what you think.

I don't think you can predict what he would do with a $6MM per year offer unless we also know the term.

 

I think unless the Sabres offer at least 6 years, his answer is going to be no.

[LGR4GM]

I can't convince myself Kane is worth 6 mil for more then 3-4 years

I don't think you can predict what he would do with a $6MM per year offer unless we also know the term.

 

I think unless the Sabres offer at least 6 years, his answer is going to be no.

[7+6=13]

I can't convince myself Kane is worth 6 mil for more then 3-4 years

 

I'm with you here.  I just can't find a reason we'd go 6-7 - it's not good business.

 

I'd offer him a 1 year extension now for 2018 at 5.75 and give him a no trade clause.  This gives me a chance to see if he works his way into the nucleus - if not my youngsters are closer.  It gives him some stability and an opportunity at 28 to earn another contract either with us or another team in 2019.

Edited September 19, 2017 by 7+6=13

[Thorny]

No way Kane signs a one year. He's getting a nice deal this summer, with term and plenty of $, from us or someone else.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm with you here.  I just can't find a reason we'd go 6-7 - it's not good business.

 

I'd offer him a 1 year extension now for 2018 at 5.75 and give him a no trade clause.  This gives me a chance to see if he works his way into the nucleus - if not my youngsters are closer.  It gives him some stability and an opportunity at 28 to earn another contract either with us or another team in 2019.

This is the most reasonable post so far, but again this is a huge over-payment for a player who is unlikely to achieve the numbers anywhere close to the contract price.

 

Kane for his career has only skated in 80% of his team's games.  Since he joined the Sabres he has played around that % of the games (79% in 2015-16 and 85% last year).  Over his career he has had a consistently mediocre 9% shooting %. That number is the same here as in Wpg.  He is also incredibly streaky.  His career high for G/gp is .41.  Last season was his second best @ .40.  His career number however is .33.  With Buffalo he has done slightly better at .36.  However his assists numbers in Buffalo .22 are significantly below his career number of .27 a/gp.  FYI: Here are his goal totals per season in which he was mostly healthy and that weren't a lockout year: 14, 19, 30, 19, 20, 28.  Not exactly the model of consistent achievement. 

 

So what do these numbers translate to?  A guy who will at best play about 66 games, score 26 goals, add 15 to 19 assists, or 41 to 45 points.  He also doesn't kill penalties well or help out on the PP.  He also still takes dumb penalties, which won't endear him to Housley.  Is this really worth $6 mill per season?

 

When we signed Okposo just last off-season for $6 mill per season, he had averaged 70 games, 22 goals and 39 assists for 61 pts in the three season before coming here.  

Now you want to give a similar contract to a guy who in his last 3 mostly healthy seasons has averaged  66 games,  22 goals and 17 assists for 39 pts.  Okposo is also physical, a better 2 way player and a positive impact on the team.

 

How does this make any sense?  At best he is worth $5 per season; at best.  

No way Kane signs a one year. He's getting a nice deal this summer, with term and plenty of $, from us or someone else.

If someone is willing to give him big $ and big term, then let him walk.  

[Thorny]

This is the most reasonable post so far, but again this is a huge over-payment for a player who is unlikely to achieve the numbers anywhere close to the contract price.

 

Kane for his career has only skated in 80% of his team's games. Since he joined the Sabres he has played around that % of the games (79% in 2015-16 and 85% last year). Over his career he has had a consistently mediocre 9% shooting %. That number is the same here as in Wpg. He is also incredibly streaky. His career high for G/gp is .41. Last season was his second best @ .40. His career number however is .33. With Buffalo he has done slightly better at .36. However his assists numbers in Buffalo .22 are significantly below his career number of .27 a/gp. FYI: Here are his goal totals per season in which he was mostly healthy and that weren't a lockout year: 14, 19, 30, 19, 20, 28. Not exactly the model of consistent achievement.

 

So what do these numbers translate to? A guy who will at best play about 66 games, score 26 goals, add 15 to 19 assists, or 41 to 45 points. He also doesn't kill penalties well or help out on the PP. He also still takes dumb penalties, which won't endear him to Housley. Is this really worth $6 mill per season?

 

When we signed Okposo just last off-season for $6 mill per season, he had averaged 70 games, 22 goals and 39 assists for 61 pts in the three season before coming here.

Now you want to give a similar contract to a guy who in his last 3 mostly healthy seasons has averaged 66 games, 22 goals and 17 assists for 39 pts. Okposo is also physical, a better 2 way player and a positive impact on the team.

 

How does this make any sense? At best he is worth $5 per season; at best.

If someone is willing to give him big $ and big term, then let him walk.

 

But those at best numbers have already been eclipsed, so.

 

If someone is willing to give him big $ and big term, then let him walk.

 

The second part of that isn't an "if". That's what my post was referring to: he is definitely getting term on his next deal, whoever signs him, and not the 1 year deal proposed.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Thorny

[North Buffalo]

But those at best numbers have already been eclipsed, so.

 

The second part of that isn't an "if". That's what my post was referring to: he is definitely getting term on his next deal, whoever signs him, and not the 1 year deal proposed.

Yeh he will get more than 1 year especially if he get 25+ goals and 15+ assists, that being said hard to give him more than 4-5 years. Remind me how old is he? 26? That has to play into his thinking... 4-5 puts him at 30-31. Enough to get one more decent contract... if he can remain healthy.... or he want 7 years and assumes his health forces retirement. Do these guys even think that way? Edited September 19, 2017 by North Buffalo

[WildCard]

There's no way Kane gets a 1 year deal. Players like Gionta, Jagr, and Iginla get 1 year deals. Worse case scenario for Kane is he probably gets a Radulov contract

[GASabresIUFAN]

The problem with a longer deal is that Kane's style leads to injuries and the older he gets the more injuries he'll likely have and the even less return on the contract we'll receive.  Again, let him be someone else's problem.

 

Someone asked how will we replace his 5 on 5 offense.  The answer is with improvement in that area by guys like Reinhart and Eichel, plus the development of kids like Asplund, Nylander and Mittelstud.  It also wouldn't hurt if one or more of the three wingers (Baptiste, Fasching or Bailey) emerged as a legit goal threat in the NHL.  Admittedly that's becoming a forlorn hope on those three, but there is still an chance.  

 

ex-GMTM got into trouble in his rebuild by acquiring or giving out big contracts like candy to declining players or overpaid mediocre players.  Kulikov, Franson, Moulson, Gorges, Bogosian and even Kane chief among them.  These guys never performed near their contract amount, creating a Sabres team last season that spent big $ (80 mill in real $) and finished last in the division again.  I'm hoping Jbot doesn't make the same mistake.  Re-signing Kane will lead to a similar large and unproductive contract.   

 

One other note: We really don't need two volume shooters who only score 10% of the time or less.  Kane's career mark is 9% with only two seasons over 10% (His 30 goals and 28 goal campaigns).  Eichel is the other. I was surprised that Eichel's career number is only 9.9%.  This might explain why ex-GMTM and others don't think they are a good fit together on a line.  

 

If Jack and Kane are ever going to be truly elite players, this % needs to improve to the 12% area (Pat Kane's is 12.4, McDavid 12.9 and Ovie's is 12.3). Also Jack needs to take a page from Crosby's book and get his FO% up over 50% from his current 40.1% for his career to date.

Edited September 19, 2017 by GASabresFan

[shrader]

The problem with a longer deal is that Kane's style leads to injuries and the older he gets the more injuries he'll likely have and the even less return on the contract we'll receive.  Again let him be someone else's problem.

 

At the same, that's a big reason why someone like Kane will sign for a longterm deal.  He's not going to take the risk of getting injured and missing out on that next contract, he's going to push for as much guaranteed money as possible.

[LGR4GM]

He's 25g, 20a player and that's just not worth 7 mil x7