Sabres Prospects 2016-17

[Guest]

Cherry picking.

Again.

How is using the 3 trades done in the same off-season (actually within 5 days of each other) for similar players cherry picking?  In fact it's the closest we'll get to knowing what the market value for up and coming goalies was in a particular year.  

 

If you are doing an appraisal on a home you don't look at the price paid 5 years ago.  You look at sales of similar homes in the same neighborhood within 6 months and correct for slight differences such as maintenance.  

 

Using your theory the price of up and coming goalies in trade is a nearly a constant of a 1st rd pick year to year.  I've clearly illustrated that it isn't and in 2015 the price for a healthy up and coming goalie was a 2nd rd pick.  

[dudacek]

You cherry picked by hand waving away the Rask pick by saying it doesn't matter. He was a promising young goalie and that was the price the Leafs paid.

You cherry picked by ignoring the fact the Capitals paid a very similar price for Samsonov that same year.

You cherry picked by using a made-up formula as a fact to make it seem like a pick in the bottom third of the first is somehow always better than two in the second.

You cherry picked by suggesting a 27-year-old minor league soon-to-be UFA with one hot NHL stretch should have the same value as a touted 23-year-old 2nd-rounder still under team control.

You cherry picked by neglecting to mention that the 29th pick was an absolute best case scenario for the Sharks in the Jones deal. When they made the trade they were picking 15th.

You cherry pick Legwand as a negative in the Lehner trade when he was a decent 4th line centre and a good influence on the kids and we didn't need the cap space.

You cherry picked by ignoring the gist of both this and my original post: in the past decade, promising young goalies have been acquired for anywhere from the ninth pick overall (Corey Schneider) to picks in the 40s like Carter Hart last year. Lehner and Legwand for 21 fall in that window.

 

It's just like you cherry pick that Murray was an idiot for the price he paid in the Brayden McNabb deal while conveniently forgetting about what the Kings got in the deal.

Last I checked, the Kings have two struggling prospects unlikely to ever make the NHL, and a mediocre defenceman struggling to stay in the lineup. We have an unproven winger with NHL upside and a lacklustre 4th-line fighter. Was this really such a horrible trade?

Edited March 17, 2017 by dudacek

[WildCard]

dudacek coming with the fire.

[tom webster]

You cherry picked by hand waving away the Rask pick by saying it doesn't matter. He was a promising young goalie and that was the price the Leafs paid.

You cherry picked by ignoring the fact the Capitals paid a very similar price for Samsonov that same year.

You cherry picked by using a made-up formula as a fact to make it seem like a pick in the bottom third of the first is somehow always better than two in the second.

You cherry picked by suggesting a 27-year-old minor league soon-to-be UFA with one hot NHL stretch should have the same value as a touted 23-year-old 2nd-rounder still under team control.

You cherry picked by neglecting to mention that the 29th pick was an absolute best case scenario for the Sharks in the Jones deal. When they made the trade they were picking 15th.

You cherry pick Legwand as a negative in the Lehner trade when he was a decent 4th line centre and a good influence on the kids and we didn't need the cap space.

You cherry picked by ignoring the gist of both this and my original post: in the past decade, promising young goalies have been acquired for anywhere from the ninth pick overall (Corey Schneider) to picks in the 40s like Carter Hart last year. Lehner and Legwand for 21 fall in that window.

 

It's just like you cherry pick that Murray was an idiot for the price he paid in the Brayden McNabb deal.

Last I checked, the Kings have two struggling prospects unlikely to ever make the NHL, and a mediocre defenceman struggling to stay in the lineup. We have an unproven winger with NHL upside and a lacklustre 4th-line fighter. Was this really such a horrible trade?

And another realization of why I just don't post here much anymore

[dudacek]

And another realization of why I just don't post here much anymore

???

[TrueBlueGED]

dudacek coming with the fire.

One does not simply...belittle Robin Lehner in the presence of Dudacek.

 

*contemplates ordering kevlar before posting some advanced metrics where Lehner is quite meh*

[Robviously]

One does not simply...belittle Robin Lehner in the presence of Dudacek.

 

*contemplates ordering kevlar before posting some advanced metrics where Lehner is quite meh*

:ph34r:

[Guest]

Since when does draft position and trade value after being drafted ever equate?  Malcom Subban was drafted 24th in 2012.  Do you think Boston could get a 1st for him now?  I doubt it.  They may give him up for nothing in expansion. 

Montour was drafted 55th, do you think Ana would take the 55th pick this year for him?  Of course not they'd want a high 1st at the least, but probably want a solid young top 6 forward.  We are talking trade value!

 

Toronto drafted Rask with the 21st pick in 2005.  Then they traded him for Andrew Roycroft.  

Just because Lehner was drafted for a 2nd rd pick and Martin Jones wasn't drafted doesn't mean they aren't worth a similar amount during June of 2015.  How about now? Do you think SJ would trade us Jones for Lehner right now in an even swap?  

 

I assume you were talking about Talbot, except you don't have your facts rights.  He was hot playing for an injured Hank in 2014-15, but also was the backup in 2013-14 and put up a 1.64 gga and 941 save % in 21 games.  Obviously not in the minors and pretty much  had equal experience in the NHL when traded as both Jones and Lehner.  The only thing that you mentioned that does add to Lehner's value was the extra year on his contract.  However, the cap hit for all three goalies for the last 2 seasons has been similar with somewhat Lehner less, but we will be paying more then the 3 for 9 bridge deal SJ signed Jones for and likely more then the 3 for 12.5 Talbot re-signed for.  

 

However we are also not talking about a decade of goalie trades.  We were talking about GMTM overpaying for Lehner in the market place of 2015.  However your own theory shows how varied the returns are; the 9th over pick for Schneider to a 57th for Talbot.  These are night and day differences in value.  It like comparing the 2014 2nd pick we gave back to LA in the McNabb deal to Nick Ehlers who was drafted 9th in that 2014 draft.    Was Lehner value somewhere in that range; Sure, but that is a huge range and the truth is in 2015 his value was a lot closer to the pick 57 to then the 9th overall.

 

You are forgetting that I like Lehner, but just because I like the guy and think with the right coaching he has a bright future doesn't change the fact that GMTM overpaid in 2015 to get him.  I have also stated a millions times that if he leads us to the playoffs no one will care what we paid for him.  However if I'm evaluating the quality of GMTM's work as GM it is important to determine if GMTM continues to over pay to get players in trades or free agency.  

Edited March 17, 2017 by yse325

[dudacek]

One does not simply...belittle Robin Lehner in the presence of Dudacek.

*contemplates ordering kevlar before posting some advanced metrics where Lehner is quite meh*

I don't know yet if Lehner is our goalie and I said explicitly that you can make a good argument that Lehner wasn't worth that deal.

Time will tell.

 

What I said was the trade was in the ballpark for what teams give up for goalies of Lehner's ilk - touted but unproven young guys who they believe could be poised to emerge. Murray needed a lawnmower. At worst, he chose to buy the one he liked for $400 instead of waiting a few months to get a similar one on sale for $375, or buy a lower-reviewed model for $300. People act like he bought a used $300 model for $800.

 

It's the myth that Murray massively overpaid that needs to die.

Edited March 17, 2017 by dudacek

[North Buffalo]

I don't know yet if Lehner is our goalie and I said explicitly that you can make a good argument that Lehner wasn't worth that deal.

Time will tell.

What I said was the trade was in the ballpark for what teams give up for goalies of Lehner's ilk - touted but unproven young guys who they believe could be poised to emerge. Murray needed a lawnmower. At worst, he chose to buy the one he liked for $400 instead of waiting a few months to get a similar one on sale for $375, or buy a lower-reviewed model for $300. People act like he bought a used $300 model for $800.

It's the myth that Murray massively overpaid that needs to die.

The myth isnt going to die because of the talent available in last years draft class. Just saying, if it was this years draft class id be fine with trade but last year had too much talent to give up that pick.

[Robviously]

I don't know yet if Lehner is our goalie and I said explicitly that you can make a good argument that Lehner wasn't worth that deal.

Time will tell.

 

What I said was the trade was in the ballpark for what teams give up for goalies of Lehner's ilk - touted but unproven young guys who they believe could be poised to emerge. Murray needed a lawnmower. At worst, he chose to buy the one he liked for $400 instead of waiting a few months to get a similar one on sale for $375, or buy a lower-reviewed model for $300. People act like he bought a used $300 model for $800.

 

It's the myth that Murray massively overpaid that needs to die.

If you're including the word "massively" it's tough to dispute you.  But he did overpay and he did goof because there are already a few players taken right after that pick that teams would never trade us for Lehner -- and they're players we could use right now.

 

Also, if the price was the price because of a bidding war, that's not a good reason to make a trade.  If the Oilers drove the price too high by offering the 33rd pick, we should have just walked away.  Teams regret winning bidding wars as often as they are happy they won them.

 

Lehner's fine.  He's not terrible, but he's not so special that he's a critical part of the team moving forward.  He'll get a bridge deal and the team will take another 2-3 years to see if he's really their guy for a Cup run someday.

[Sabre fan]

I read somewhere were such a small percentage of players drafted ever pan out...there have been so many first round busts and while the Sabres have had their share, so has every other team so he fact is that while drafting players high is all good, it means nothing overall...the truth is no one knows for sure but GMTM's drafting thus far has been pretty darn good. Funny how some teams (see Anaheim) seem to be able to find good young players while always drafting higher up in the standings (detroit were able to find good draft picks year after year while drafting way up every year). I do think Lerner is actually very good and once we get a new coach that allows a system that goes by the new NHL's model that a good defense is a good offense and lerner starts to see far less action and shots as we control the puck more he will excel even more

[Guest]

Here is the recent version of a series of article written and updated by TSN's Scott Cullen over the last 5-6 years on the performance of draft picks. http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

 

He focuses on how many guys make the NHL for at least 100 games and what their impact is on a scale of 1-10. Top 6 forwards and top 4 D get a 7-10 on the scale.

 

It's a great read and really helpful in understanding the difference in value of a draft pick, such as 21 vs 57.

[dudacek]

It's a great read and really helpful in understanding the difference in value of a draft pick, such as 21 vs 57.

And after you've finally grasped the difficult concept that 21st is actually quite a bit better than 57th - it's hard, but you'll get there - you can take this look at the price teams have paid for young goalies and judge how far out of whack the Lehner trade was.

 

http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/24622-robin-lehner-the-man-the-myth/?hl=bernier

Edited March 18, 2017 by dudacek

[Guest]

And after you've finally grasped the difficult concept that 21st is actually quite a bit better than 57th - it's hard, but you'll get there - you can take this look at the price teams have paid for young goalies and judge how far out of whack the Lehner trade was.http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/24622-robin-lehner-the-man-the-myth/?hl=bernier

Huh? I'm not not the one trying to equate a trade from 2005 to one in 2015. I'm not the one who thinks that a range of 9th overall to 57th overall is relatively the same thing. History shows that the 21st we gave up was of significantly more value then the 57th Edm gave for Talbot or the 29th in 2016 that SJ gave for Jones for three goalies that were of equalish value based on age, experience and performance. These are the only comparables that matter since that was the trade market that existed when Lehner was acquired and it's pretty clear that GMTM overpaid, while shrewder and more experienced GM's got similar (or better) quality for less. Looking at the three goalies, one can easily make an argument that we spent the most and got the worst of the three goalies, despite Lehners improvement.

 

If you want to argue that a GM should look at history to get a general idea of what he should offer to acquire an up and coming goalie, ok I can accept that argument to a limited extent. However, the GM must factor in the quality of the goalies available and number of teams looking for the goalies in that year in making an offer.i Some years we have buyers markets and sometimes sellers markets. Sometimes you have excellent players available and sometimes you don't.

[Crusader1969]

If you're including the word "massively" it's tough to dispute you.  But he did overpay and he did goof because there are already a few players taken right after that pick that teams would never trade us for Lehner -- and they're players we could use right now.

 

Also, if the price was the price because of a bidding war, that's not a good reason to make a trade.  If the Oilers drove the price too high by offering the 33rd pick, we should have just walked away.  Teams regret winning bidding wars as often as they are happy they won them.

 

Lehner's fine.  He's not terrible, but he's not so special that he's a critical part of the team moving forward.  He'll get a bridge deal and the team will take another 2-3 years to see if he's really their guy for a Cup run someday.

Who are these players we could use right now?

[Robviously]

Who are these players we could use right now?

Read my post at the top of this page.

[Guest]

Johansson signed to ATO. What does this mean to the Sabres and to our ability to sign Petersen? Does this show Murray is worried about losing Ullmark? Can Johansson return to Sweden next year?

 

My gut reaction is that Murray is simply getting a free up close look at how much (or how little) Johannson has developed. Might as well take a look because the Sabres could be in need of some goaltending depth next season and its not like the Amerks are fighting for a playoff spot.

 

The worst case scenario is that Nillson goes elsewhere, Petersen returns to school or goes FA, and Ullmark gets taken in expansion. Then all we have left is Lehner in Buffalo and Kasdorf under contract or control. In this scenario Johansson becomes our top G prospect and signing him to his ELC becomes important for depth.

 

However, I don't think it really changes anything. As this is only an ATO, there is no obligation to have him in NA next season and isn't a reflection on our ability to sign Petersen. I might feel differently if we had signed him to his ELC, but this move is no different then playing a kid from Jrs once his season ends.

[Robviously]

https://twitter.com/SabresProspects/status/845403692014678017

 

RHD Anthony Florentino (2 SOG) sees his collegiate career end as Providence falls to Harvard 3-0. Florentino 2016-17: 30GP 9-7-16. #Sabres

 

[dudacek]

Personally I am more interested in Harvards Malone than florentino

[Guest]

Got to love those Nichols kids!

[JJFIVEOH]

Huh? I'm not not the one trying to equate a trade from 2005 to one in 2015. I'm not the one who thinks that a range of 9th overall to 57th overall is relatively the same thing. History shows that the 21st we gave up was of significantly more value then the 57th Edm gave for Talbot or the 29th in 2016 that SJ gave for Jones for three goalies that were of equalish value based on age, experience and performance. These are the only comparables that matter since that was the trade market that existed when Lehner was acquired and it's pretty clear that GMTM overpaid, while shrewder and more experienced GM's got similar (or better) quality for less. Looking at the three goalies, one can easily make an argument that we spent the most and got the worst of the three goalies, despite Lehners improvement.

 

If you want to argue that a GM should look at history to get a general idea of what he should offer to acquire an up and coming goalie, ok I can accept that argument to a limited extent. However, the GM must factor in the quality of the goalies available and number of teams looking for the goalies in that year in making an offer.i Some years we have buyers markets and sometimes sellers markets. Sometimes you have excellent players available and sometimes you don't.

 

Jesus Christ dude, you're relentless. 

 

You do know that Talbot is four years older than Lehner................ right? That's not "equalish".

[Norcal]

https://twitter.com/playerstribune/status/845676299150643201Sign em up Timmy.

[3putt]

Petersen with an assist on the Irish' tying goal. Tape to tape to the winger at the Gophers blue line. 2 to 2 start of third.

[Winston]

ND- UMass Lowell on ESPNU right now if anyone wants to catch Cal.. 1-1 over midway through the second currently.