Sabres Prospects 2016-17

[Guest]

Freeman, I actually like Lehner, but I think we overpaid for him and have said if he becomes our starter and leads us to the playoff no one will complain about a 1st for him. I just like playing Devil's Advocate to Dudacek and he likes to do it to me.

[Crusader1969]

Do you mean the first rd pick he wasted on a goalie that can't stop a breakaway or an odd man rush and who has been mostly outplayed by two career backups that we got for next to nothing? ;) Do you mean that goalie? Do you mean the pick that he could have used on top D prospects Jacob Larsson or Noah Juulsen or top G prospect Samsonov? Just asking.

.

Way too early grade this trade. Give it another 3-4 years. At this point none of those prospects have done a thing in the NHL and Lehner has been better than either of those two backups.

[nfreeman]

Freeman, I actually like Lehner, but I think we overpaid for him and have said if he becomes our starter and leads us to the playoff no one will complain about a 1st for him. I just like playing Devil's Advocate to Dudacek and he likes to do it to me.

 

Your perspective is certainly reasonable, although the opposing view is also reasonable IMHO.  I was more reacting to Robvy's assertions as to what #21 in 2015 would've yielded.  In any case I think your ongoing discussion with dudacek is good hockey talk, as are Robvy's posts. 

[Winston]

OHL coaches voted on some best-in-category skills. Pu recognized for his skating ability and his faceoff ability.

 

http://ontariohockeyleague.com/article/ohl-announces-2016-17-coaches-poll-winners

[Robviously]

Whoa. 

 

The #21 pick overall almost never makes the NHL before serving another 2 years in juniors, plus at least a year or 2 in the A.

 

And the #21 pick overall very often becomes a marginal NHL player/washout.  In particular:

 

2008 -- Anton Gustafsson © -- played 1 game in AHL and returned to Sweden

2009 -- John Moore (D) -- became a full-time NHLer in 2013-14; now low-scoring #4 defenseman on NJ

2010 -- Riley Sheahan © -- last year -- 25 pts in 81 games

2011 -- Stefan Noesen (RW) -- 33 NHL games since being drafted

2012 -- Mark Jankowski © -- 1 NHL game since being drafted

2013 -- Frederik Gauthier © -- 28 NHL games since being drafted

2014 -- Robby Fabbri © -- 66 pts in 123 NHL games -- so far he's the only solid player

2015 -- Sabres traded pick for Lehner -- Ottawa drafted Colin White © -- still in college -- too early to tell.

That's true, but every draft is different.  The 2015 draft was completely stacked with great prospects, with a few that are already full-time NHLers in 2016-2017.  And all signs point to the 2017 draft being the opposite.

 

I think just about everyone on this board felt the 2015 draft was loaded with talent going in and that there were late 1st round guys that could help a ton (guys a lot of us were reading about leading up to the draft because, seriously, what else was there to do during the Tank?).  If you look at who was drafted 21st overall and after that year, there are a bunch of super strong prospects and their ETA is all 2017-2018 (if not already).

 

We traded that pick and two years later Lehner gets a big "I for Incomplete" grade and probably a bridge deal this summer to give us more time to figure out if we even want him as a no.1.  I'd much rather have another stud defenseman on par with Guhle on the way next year.

[nfreeman]

That's true, but every draft is different.  The 2015 draft was completely stacked with great prospects, with a few that are already full-time NHLers in 2016-2017.  And all signs point to the 2017 draft being the opposite.

 

 

This is fair, but I think you'd need to identify a few of these prospects and provide some specifics as to why they'd be superior assets to Lehner if you want to really make this point.

[Robviously]

This is fair, but I think you'd need to identify a few of these prospects and provide some specifics as to why they'd be superior assets to Lehner if you want to really make this point.

I named a few in my first post earlier today on this.

 

Aho, Carlo, and Beauvillier are already helping their NHL teams this season and making an impact as 19 year olds.  Larsson and Carlsson are big LHD that can skate and exactly what we're trying to figure out how to trade for seemingly all season.  (Larsson would be in the NHL already except that he's with Anaheim and they're already stacked on defense.)

 

And the key point is that none of this is hindsight.  Everyone knew the 2015 draft was stacked leading up to it.  It would have been a good draft to hold onto some picks and have extra -- especially since those players would be the same age as our franchise player.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Robviously

[Guest]

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-prospect-brendan-guhle-ready-nhl-duty/

 

FYI: Is Brendan Guhle ready?

 

After reading the article, it seems like he will be given every chance to make the team.  He has nothing left to prove in Jrs and we are desperate for his speed.

Edited March 17, 2017 by yse325

[Drunkard]

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-prospect-brendan-guhle-ready-nhl-duty/

 

FYI: Is Brendan Guhle ready?

 

After reading the article, it seems like he will be given every chance to make the team.  He has nothing left to prove in Jrs and we are desperate for his speed.

 

Not sure if he'll be ready or not but he's about to officially age out of juniors. He turns 20 this summer and will be eligibile to go to Rochester if he doesn't make the Sabres.

[Derrico]

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-prospect-brendan-guhle-ready-nhl-duty/

 

FYI: Is Brendan Guhle ready?

 

After reading the article, it seems like he will be given every chance to make the team.  He has nothing left to prove in Jrs and we are desperate for his speed.

Great article.  Thanks for sharing.  He's the exact type of Dman this team needs.

[Eleven]

Freeman, I actually like Lehner, but I think we overpaid for him and have said if he becomes our starter and leads us to the playoff no one will complain about a 1st for him. I just like playing Devil's Advocate to Dudacek and he likes to do it to me.

 

They paid the going rate.

[North Buffalo]

They paid the going rate.

Debatable... and is the going rate worth it... guess time will tell???

[Eleven]

Debatable... and is the going rate worth it... guess time will tell???

 

It's ten picks higher than what the Sabres were able to get for Biron.

[North Buffalo]

It's ten picks higher than what the Sabres were able to get for Biron.

Market has changed since then and Sabres had Chad... just saying in that draft not sure it was wisest decision. In a vacuum sure... overpaid given the market imo and opportunity cost.

PS Lehner argument has been beaten enough. like the guy's attitude and hope he keeps developing ie figures out how to stop puck in shootout and over left shoulder snipes. so all water under bridge hope he turns out well despite cost.

Edited March 17, 2017 by North Buffalo

[dudacek]

They clearly paid the going rate for an emerging young goalie. I posted all the comparables a few weeks back and am not going to repeat the process. But from Anders Lindback in 2012 to Freddy Andersen last summer, the Lehner price was absolutely in the ballpark.

 

Feel free to debate whether it was worth paying that price for Lehner - who was outstanding again last night to no comment from the naysayers - but that absolutely was the going rate.

Edited March 17, 2017 by dudacek

[Trettioåtta]

They clearly paid the going rate for an emerging young goalie. I posted all the comparables a few weeks back and am not going to repeat the process. But from Anders Lindback in 2012 to Freddy Andersen last summer, the Lehner price was absolutely in the ballpark.

 

Feel free to debate whether it was worth paying that price for Lehner - who was outstanding again last night to no comment from the naysayers - but that absolutely was the going rate.

 

Plus we got Legwand. Not that he added much, but that's like a 3rd/4th rounder coming back to us.

[tom webster]

not only has Lehner been outstanding, he has done it while playing behind the worst defense in the league(not my words)

[DarthEbriate]

Plus we got Legwand. Not that he added much, but that's like a 3rd/4th rounder coming back to us.

It's not intended as a knock on Grant, and Legwand's only memorable contribution on offense last season was the 3/4 rink bouncing shortie goal...  (although, didn't he have a suspicious amount of breakaways last year -- not that he scored, but he had them?)  .... but,

 

In hindsight, having Leggy on the PK this year -- and as our savvy 4th center -- just for one more transition year... might be the difference between where we're at and the playoffs. At least, until we dropped 10 of 12. But I don't think our PK is 30th with Legwand on it. The counterargument is of course, if Legwand is here, the Rodrigues isn't gaining NHL experience on the 4th and the PK.

 

It's a prospects thread...  let's go, Rodrigues!

[Guest]

They clearly paid the going rate for an emerging young goalie. I posted all the comparables a few weeks back and am not going to repeat the process. But from Anders Lindback in 2012 to Freddy Andersen last summer, the Lehner price was absolutely in the ballpark.

 

Feel free to debate whether it was worth paying that price for Lehner - who was outstanding again last night to no comment from the naysayers - but that absolutely was the going rate.

no it wasn't.  You mentioned among other things that guys like Rask were drafted in the first and I showed that Rask was acquired by Bos for virtually nothing.  Furthermore, people are forgetting that Ott had to dump one goalie, Lehner already had concussion and injury issues and we gave them cap relief by taking Legwand off their hands saving them $3 mill.  So in a buyers market we overpaid for an injured unproven player.  It has worked out this season.  No question Lehner has been greatly improved besides the discussed continuing flaws and that if he stays healthy and continues to improve no one will question the price paid, but that doesn't change the over payment.

 

What prospects?

Edited March 17, 2017 by yse325

[dudacek]

You're trolling or deliberately blind.

 

There are countless examples of goalies with Lehner's pedigree going for mid- to late- firsts, high seconds, or multiple seconds.

The fact the Leafs vastly overrated Andrew Raycroft is irrelevant to the fact that they drafted Rask in the bottom third of the first round.

Again, you cherry pick one instance and ignore the body of evidence.

 

The Oilers were prepared to give Ottawa the 33rd pick. We beat it. Going rate.

Bet the Oilers wish we hadn't, considering they ended up swapping that pick, plus number 16 for Griffin Reinhart.

Bad trade, but the going rate for a projected (mistakenly) first pairing defenceman.

[North Buffalo]

To be fair I wasnt in favor of the Lehner deal and jury is still out thou admittedly he is growing on me. Mostly just frustrated Sabres didnt aquire enough D talent to make the playoffs this year and at this rate are again gonna finish in the bottom 5.

[Guest]

You're trolling or deliberately blind.

 

There are countless examples of goalies with Lehner's pedigree going for mid- to late- firsts, high seconds, or multiple seconds.

The fact the Leafs vastly overrated Andrew Raycroft is irrelevant to the fact that they drafted Rask in the bottom third of the first round.

Again, you cherry pick one instance and ignore the body of evidence.

 

The Oilers were prepared to give Ottawa the 33rd pick. We beat it. Going rate.

Bet the Oilers wish we hadn't, considering they ended up swapping that pick, plus number 16 for Griffin Reinhart.

Bad trade, but the going rate for a projected (mistakenly) first pairing defenceman.

The difference in value between the 33rd pick and 21st is night and day.  I've showed you this chart before, http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up, but it illustrates the difference very well.  To move up in a draft from 33 to 21 would take at least the 40th pick.  (So 33 + 40 to get 21).  They are not even close to the same value.  Where Rask was drafted by Toronto is meaningless, he doesn't play for them.  To compare apples to apples, we need to look at what other teams paid for their up and coming goalies.  Boston paid virtually nothing for Rask.  In 2015 we paid with the 21st overall pick in a very deep draft while Talbot when to Edm for picks 57, 79 and 184, and Jones went to SJ for the 29th pick in 2016 and a unsigned 5th rd drafted college player.

 

In addition Lehner had the worst gga and save % in the NHL of the 3 players and was injured when acquired.

 

Using the above referenced chart lets compare the 3 trades on points

1) Lehner for the 21st picks = 21.5 pts

2) Talbot for 57, 79 and 184 =  4 + 1.8 + .12 = 5.92 pts (or about the 49th pick in the draft - a mid 2nd rd pick)

3) All Star Martin Jones for the 29th pick (2016) and a former 133rd pick (.27 pts) = 15.27 pts (but should discount for the added year).  However, regardless of the year, to move up from 29 to 21 would cost around the 46th pick in the draft (a mid 2nd rd pick)

 

Just crunching the numbers and comparing deals done the same time for similar players we overpaid and compared to Talbot we really overpaid and it's not even close.  Lehner was worth at the most the 33rd pick Edm offered.

 

Also to illustrate how accurate this chart is lets look at the Asplund aspect of the Pysyk trade.

We received the 33rd pick (12.5pts) for the 38th (9.9 pts) and 89th picks (1.2 pts).  9.9 + 1.2 = 11.1 (or around the 35th pick on the chart).  Pretty accurate I'd say.  

Edited March 17, 2017 by yse325

[Trettioåtta]

The difference in value between the 33rd pick and 21st is night and day.  I've showed you this chart before, http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up, but it illustrates the difference very well.  To move up in a draft from 33 to 21 would take at least the 40th pick.  (So 33 + 40 to get 21).  They are not even close to the same value.  Where Rask was drafted is meaningless.  To compare apples to apples, we need to look at what other teams paid for their up and coming goalies.  Boston paid virtually nothing for Rask.  In 2015 we paid with the 21st overall pick in a very deep draft while Talbot when to Edm for picks 57, 79 and 184, and Jones went to SJ for the 29th pick in 2016 and a unsigned 5th rd drafted college player.

 

In addition Lehner had the worst gga and save % in the NHL of the 3 players and was injured when acquired.

 

Using the above referenced chart lets compare the 3 trades on points

1) Lehner for the 21st picks = 21.5 pts

2) Talbot for 57, 79 and 184 =  4 + 1.8 + .12 = 5.92 pts (or about the 49th pick in the draft)

3) All Star Martin Jones for the 29th pick (2016) and a former 133rd pick (.27 pts) = 15.27 pts (but should discount for the added year).  However, regardless of the year, to move up from 29 to 21 would cost around the 46th pick in the draft.

 

Just crunching the numbers and comparing deals done the same time for similar players we overpaid and compared to Talbot we really overpaid and it's not even close.  Lehner was worth at the most the 33rd pick Edm offered.

 

Also to illustrate how accurate this chart is lets look at the Asplund aspect of the Pysyk trade.

We received the 33rd pick (12.5pts) for the 38th (9.9 pts) and 89th picks (1.2 pts).  9.9 + 1.2 = 11.1 (or around the 35th pick on the chart).  Pretty accurate I'd say.  

 

Andersson was the 30th last year and roughly 50th this year. Pretty similar value (especially as he has slightly worse stats).

Edited March 17, 2017 by ThirtyEight

[Guest]

Andersson was the 30th last year and roughly 50th this year. Pretty similar value (especially as he has slightly worse stats).

 

Andersson was a much more accomplished goalie when acquired with over 125 appearance and both GGA and Save % superior to Lehner's.

 

However the 30th pick is worth 14.2 pts plus the 50th pick (5.8 pts if in the same year) = 20 pts.  At least this is close to what we overpaid for Lehner.

[dudacek]

Cherry picking.

Again.