DLDT: Draft Lottery Discussion Thread, 4-30-2016, 8:00pm est

[North Buffalo]

I don't think it was out of line. But I'll drop it now as it's already become an issue

fair enough just note like my goatender when im on the ice, dont f with Millbank or his D will with you.:) Edited May 4, 2016 by North Buffalo

[WildCard]

fair enough just note like my goatender when im on the ice, dont f with Millbank or his D will with you. :)

I'm not with him. I can take issue with a post without it being a personal attack

[North Buffalo]

I'm not ###### with him. I can take issue with a post without it being a personal attack

nope just stay away you can insist your right but im still giving you a xross check.... For being too close ... Fair warning.

[BagBoy]

Roy was closer than Brodeur, but still not really close. Frankly, I don't think Brodeur even belongs in the same sentence.

 

I've had this conversation about Brodeur here before so I'll just say my spiel and get out of the way.  

 

I also believe Hasek, in his heyday, was the best goalie ever.  I have in fact screamed this at the top of my lungs at a Carolina game (and that was a fun moment, believe me!).  However, I think Brodeur had a better career.  He won 3 cups.  He played 70 games a year for 20 years.  He has about 120 shutouts, which is a full season and a half of no goals.  And MOST importantly, he changed the game.  He was so incredibly effective with the puck that he in effect became a 3rd defenseman.  The league changed the rules because of him to limit where goalies can play the puck.  

 

There is more to analysis than statistics alone.

[WildCard]

nope just stay away you can insist your right but im still giving you a xross check.... For being too close ... Fair warning.

So I, or anyone else, is allowed to take issue with anything he posts, without you getting upset. 

Edited May 4, 2016 by WildCard

[qwksndmonster]

So I, or anyone else, is allowed to take issue with anything he posts, without you getting upset.

Dude. Let it go. You were getting on Millbank for posting an innocuous fact about Marner winning some award.

[WildCard]

Dude. Let it go. You were getting on Millbank for posting an innocuous fact about Marner winning some award.

Alright

[JujuFish]

Roy was closer than Brodeur, but still not really close. Frankly, I don't think Brodeur even belongs in the same sentence.

 

It was a rookie Brodeur that Hasek's 70-save shutout came against.  120 combined shots in that game, 1 goal.  Insane.

[3putt]

he played around the same time and for about as along as Gilbert, i believe.

 

without looking, i'd guess they had about the same number of goals and that #11 would've had significantly more assists.

 

gilbert = elite. but not generational. 

 

/ducks

I once sat with Mario at charity fundraiser and asked him who he emulated growing up?  I expected to hear Beliveau, LaFleur Howe.  He said he and every other kid wanted to be Gilbert Perreault.  "He made the game look so easy."

[LTS]

Did you, do you think that the professed "hope" was genuine? Sincere? Or maybe something else? Like maybe it was meant to absurd, intentionally ridiculous. The sort of thing that can be cathartic without needing to be taken literally.

 

This conversation happened similarly when discussing Brad Marchand and similar things were said and I hardly believed they were absurd or intentionally ridiculous. 

 

I guess absurd would be hoping for something that does not routinely happen in hockey like knee injuries, etc.

 

I completely understand why people do it... just making a plea to rise above it.  I'm not overly concerned if they do it...  it's all good.

[nfreeman]

I once sat with Mario at charity fundraiser and asked him who he emulated growing up?  I expected to hear Beliveau, LaFleur Howe.  He said he and every other kid wanted to be Gilbert Perreault.  "He made the game look so easy."

 

Outstanding.

[That Aud Smell]

This conversation happened similarly when discussing Brad Marchand and similar things were said and I hardly believed they were absurd or intentionally ridiculous. 

 

Fair.

 

In this instance, it was clear to me that TrueBlue was venting, hyperbolizing, clowning around, and such.

 

I think it's only in very rare instances that people genuinely mean what they say when they're wishing ill fortune (or worse) to befall a hated rival. To quote Buffalo's own Ani DiFranco: "It's a metaphor, if you know what I mean." :35 mark -- my favourite part of one of my favourites of hers:

 

 

Guy who played drums on that album (and others (Andrew Stochenski?)) was/is really terrific.

 

I once sat with Mario at charity fundraiser and asked him who he emulated growing up?  I expected to hear Beliveau, LaFleur Howe.  He said he and every other kid wanted to be Gilbert Perreault.  "He made the game look so easy."

 

I remember hearing that about/from #66. True, that.

[LGR4GM]

Matthews asked advice from Eichel about surviving in the NHL

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/auston-matthews-world-championship-toronto-maple-leafs-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel/

 

The Buffalo Sabres star told his onetime teammate on the U.S. National Under-18 squad the NHL is faster, more physical, and a bigger grind than, say, the 36 games Matthews played in the Swiss League this past season.

“He definitely stressed recovering and eating right and keeping your body in good condition to get through those 82 games,” Matthews told the radio station.

 

One thing I think that Matthew loving leaf fans are forgetting is that going from playing 36 games to playing 82 will definitely be very difficult for Matthews in his first year. I would expect about 47points from him, sometime in January he will get run down a bit.  Also this is the same reason why a 45 game season from McDavid is a joke, the NHL is a war of consistency and attrition. 

Edited May 5, 2016 by LGR4GM

[Derrico]

Matthews asked advice from Eichel about surviving in the NHL

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/auston-matthews-world-championship-toronto-maple-leafs-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel/

 

 

One thing I think that Matthew loving leaf fans are forgetting is that going from playing 36 games to playing 82 will definitely be very difficult for Matthews in his first year. I would expect about 47points from him, sometime in January he will get run down a bit.  Also this is the same reason why a 45 game season from McDavid is a joke, the NHL is a war of consistency and attrition. 

I was so tired of my leaf loving brother bragging about Mathews that I told him I will bet him he won't score as many points as Jack did in his rookie year.  He was too afraid to bet.  Said too much risk that Mathews could get hurt and that's the only reason.  Ya, ok.  I'm guessing 40 to 45 points from Mathews next year.

[Taro T]

I was so tired of my leaf loving brother bragging about Mathews that I told him I will bet him he won't score as many points as Jack did in his rookie year.  He was too afraid to bet.  Said too much risk that Mathews could get hurt and that's the only reason.  Ya, ok.  I'm guessing 40 to 45 points from Mathews next year.

Tough bet to make. Had Eichel gotten credit for all the assists he MIGHT/ COULD have received on actual Sabres goals that were scored, he'd've had at least 5 more points, and probably 10 more. If Matthews receives credit for those sort of assists, it'll likely be close to a wash.

[qwksndmonster]

I was so tired of my leaf loving brother bragging about Mathews that I told him I will bet him he won't score as many points as Jack did in his rookie year. He was too afraid to bet. Said too much risk that Mathews could get hurt and that's the only reason. Ya, ok. I'm guessing 40 to 45 points from Mathews next year.

Go points per game in the bet then, with a 30 game minimum for the dirty Leaf.

[LGR4GM]

I was so tired of my leaf loving brother bragging about Mathews that I told him I will bet him he won't score as many points as Jack did in his rookie year.  He was too afraid to bet.  Said too much risk that Mathews could get hurt and that's the only reason.  Ya, ok.  I'm guessing 40 to 45 points from Mathews next year.

It's a risky bet either way. Judging how well Matthews will do in the NHL is difficult. He could drop in the upper 40's or he could drop 60points. Kids very talented and I don't have enough knowledge of his swiss league to know where it stacks up. 

Edited May 5, 2016 by LGR4GM

[Thorny]

Tough bet to make. Had Eichel gotten credit for all the assists he MIGHT/ COULD have received on actual Sabres goals that were scored, he'd've had at least 5 more points, and probably 10 more. If Matthews receives credit for those sort of assists, it'll likely be close to a wash.

 

So everything being equal, Eichel ends up with more points rookie season! Make the bet, Derrico! :)

[LGR4GM]

I guess the best I can do to put the NLA into perspective is bring up Pierre marc-Bouchard.  He played for the wild for years and his best season was 63pts and his most goals was 20.  He lead the NLA last year in PPG with 1.37 to Matthews 1.28

 

Now Matthews scored more goals than Pierre but that is the level of talent you are looking at.  Do with that what you will. 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/league.php?season=2015&leagueid=NLA&sort=&leagueteam=&nation=&name=&order=PPG

[Derrico]

Didn't someone have a formula that converted a player's points from one league and uses it to estimate their NHL points?  I believe Jack's worked out to 54 points based on that formula.  The Swiss league isn't a typical developmental league so maybe that formula only worked for CHL or NCAA?

[LGR4GM]

Didn't someone have a formula that converted a player's points from one league and uses it to estimate their NHL points?  I believe Jack's worked out to 54 points based on that formula.  The Swiss league isn't a typical developmental league so maybe that formula only worked for CHL or NCAA?

Euro leagues are much harder for it because fewer prospects come from there.  I think the SHL is the only league that has a conversion. Rakish I feel like might know. 

[TrueBlueGED]

I've had this conversation about Brodeur here before so I'll just say my spiel and get out of the way.

 

I also believe Hasek, in his heyday, was the best goalie ever. I have in fact screamed this at the top of my lungs at a Carolina game (and that was a fun moment, believe me!). However, I think Brodeur had a better career. He won 3 cups. He played 70 games a year for 20 years. He has about 120 shutouts, which is a full season and a half of no goals. And MOST importantly, he changed the game. He was so incredibly effective with the puck that he in effect became a 3rd defenseman. The league changed the rules because of him to limit where goalies can play the puck.

 

There is more to analysis than statistics alone.

Brodeur had a better career if and only if you credit him with team accomplishments. He spent his prime with a much more well run franchise and the team/coach that invented the trap. How many fewer shutouts do you think he's have in Hasek's shoes? How many of those 3 Cups vanish?

 

More to analaysis than statistics indeed ;)

[Thorny]

Didn't someone have a formula that converted a player's points from one league and uses it to estimate their NHL points?  I believe Jack's worked out to 54 points based on that formula.  The Swiss league isn't a typical developmental league so maybe that formula only worked for CHL or NCAA?

 

I can't find the post, but someone posted a bit ago that Matthews NHLe or whatever it's called converts to something in the 40s, for his NHL rookie season. Jack's was higher, and put up 2 points more than his predicted NHLe, getting to 56. 

[Derrico]

So I found this site which has the estimated conversions.  Obviously these things are just best guesses.  But it provides the conversion from the Swiss League to NHL to be 0.44.

 

Therefore Mathews scored 46 points in 36 games or 1.2778 pts/gm.  That's extrapolated to 104.7778 points over an 82 game Swiss season.

 

104.7778 x 0.44 factor = 46.1 points over 82 game NHL season.

 

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

[LGR4GM]

I could seem him getting 46, wouldn't surprise me at all. i could see him getting what Jack did too. Much more than that though would shock me.