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Buffalo Bills 2015


Taro T

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Despite what watching the Bills will make you think, good QBs aren't extinct.

 

My point wasn't the existence of good QBs, it was the existence of available good QBs. If a QB is even below to average, teams give him $15mil per to stick around (see: Dalton, Andy) rather than face the alternative of trying to find even an equivalent player.

 

Criticize Whaley for not addressing the offensive line more, criticize him for not throwing a dart in the mid-late rounds of the draft, but this idea that he's failed because he didn't just go get a good QB is absurd.

 

 

You obviously haven't been paying attention to the state of quarterbacking around the league, they may not be extinct but they are definitely on the endangered species list.

 

Seriously. Ryan Tannehill is getting paid like a franchise player because he has accomplished the commendable feat of being better than terrible. 

Pretty sure that's doable. The entire band can't have croaked already. ;)

 

I'm just gonna be honest: I have no idea what this means :lol:

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You obviously haven't been paying attention to the state of quarterbacking around the league, they may not be extinct but they are definitely on the endangered species list.

Obviously. :p

Seriously. Ryan Tannehill is getting paid like a franchise player because he has accomplished the commendable feat of being better than terrible.

I know we want to hate him because he's the Fins QB but:

 

4,035 yards (11th)

27 TDs (12th)

12 INTs (tied for 4th fewest over 500 attempts)

66.4 completion % (7th best among QBs with at least 300 attempts)

 

Mike Wallace was his best receiver

 

 

He would make us a Super Bowl contender. He's my MVP sleeper.

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My point wasn't the existence of good QBs, it was the existence of available good QBs. If a QB is even below to average, teams give him $15mil per to stick around (see: Dalton, Andy) rather than face the alternative of trying to find even an equivalent player.

 

Criticize Whaley for not addressing the offensive line more, criticize him for not throwing a dart in the mid-late rounds of the draft, but this idea that he's failed because he didn't just go get a good QB is absurd.

 

 

 

 

Seriously. Ryan Tannehill is getting paid like a franchise player because he has accomplished the commendable feat of being better than terrible. 

 

I'm just gonna be honest: I have no idea what this means :lol:

Early '70's band. Bang a Gong, Jeepster, 20th Century Boy were their biggest hits.

 

Lead guitarist and lead singer Marc Bolan died causing the band to break up. Figured the band members couldn't all be dead, but apparently many are.

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Obviously. :P

 

I know we want to hate him because he's the Fins QB but:

 

4,035 yards (11th)

27 TDs (12th)

12 INTs (tied for 4th fewest over 500 attempts)

66.4 completion % (7th best among QBs with at least 300 attempts)

 

Mike Wallace was his best receiver

 

 

He would make us a Super Bowl contender. He's my MVP sleeper.

 

Tannehill is the walking definition of an average QB. In addition to your stats, he was 28th in the league in YPA and 16th in QBR. He tears up bad defenses and craps the bed against the good ones. 

 

Team    Def DVOA     Tannehill's QBR

NE         12th              34.8

Buf         2nd               30.7

KC         19th              23.3

OAK       26th              93.9

GB         16th              66.6

CHI        28th              95.2

JAX        20th              38.2

SD         25th               93.9

DET       3rd                45.5

BUF       2nd                43.4

DEN       4th                89.6

NYJ        21st              37.3

BAL        8th                34.2

NE          12th              55.9

MIN         23rd             81.3

NYJ         21st              29.9

 

He had one single great game against a top-end defense (Denver) and the rest were below average games to downright miserable games (QBR in the 30s-40s is Brian Hoyer and Kyle Orton territory) agains even above average defenses. Is he a lot better than what we have? Yes, of course, which is why he got paid. But MVP candidate? I'll have what you're having.

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Tannehill is the walking definition of an average QB. In addition to your stats, he was 28th in the league in YPA and 16th in QBR. He tears up bad defenses and craps the bed against the good ones.

 

Team Def DVOA Tannehill's QBR

NE 12th 34.8

Buf 2nd 30.7

KC 19th 23.3

OAK 26th 93.9

GB 16th 66.6

CHI 28th 95.2

JAX 20th 38.2

SD 25th 93.9

DET 3rd 45.5

BUF 2nd 43.4

DEN 4th 89.6

NYJ 21st 37.3

BAL 8th 34.2

NE 12th 55.9

MIN 23rd 81.3

NYJ 21st 29.9

 

He had one single great game against a top-end defense (Denver) and the rest were below average games to downright miserable games (QBR in the 30s-40s is Brian Hoyer and Kyle Orton territory) agains even above average defenses. Is he a lot better than what we have? Yes, of course, which is why he got paid. But MVP candidate? I'll have what you're having.

You mean QBs are better against bad defenses? Sheesh. That's shocking.

 

Overall, fair point made. I just think Tannehill gets a lot of because he's good not great and we have been terrible at the position for ages.

I would welcome him here. A guy I wouldn't? Andy Dalton. Eternally mediocre at best and getting paid like he's a franchise QB. I would rather have nothing than be crippled by hardly something.

 

On MVP candidacy: I think he could be a candidate if he takes a step up and the defense improves the way it should. Cameron is a better receiving threat than Clay was and he has some better options at WR. They should be a playoff team.

Edited by Hoss
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I know we want to hate him because he's the Fins QB but:

 

4,035 yards (11th)

27 TDs (12th)

12 INTs (tied for 4th fewest over 500 attempts)

66.4 completion % (7th best among QBs with at least 300 attempts)

 

Mike Wallace was his best receiver

 

 

He would make us a Super Bowl contender. He's my MVP sleeper.

 

Inconsistent baselines here. He's tied for 13th in interceptions of all quarterbacks who started so middle of the pack. Like you said, 12th in TDs so outside of the top third and 11th in yards so not bad. At the same time, his ypa is low, showing an inefficiency and needing extra attempts to obtain those yards. EDIT* Forgot to look at comp % as well. It's high, so it shows a tendency for shorter passes when putting it side by side to ypa* Of all the quarterbacks who had 3,500 yards or more (14 quarterbacks), only Jay Cutler had a lower ypa.

 

Overall, I think Tannehill is an above average quarterback who would make Buffalo an instant Super Bowl contender with the pieces we have. Is he worth 77 mil over 4 years? Maybe not, but it's the price you pay in order to avoid the QB situation the Bills or Browns have been in.

Edited by TheDominator
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Inconsistent baselines here. He's tied for 13th in interceptions of all quarterbacks who started so middle of the pack. Like you said, 12th in TDs so outside of the top third and 11th in yards so not bad. At the same time, his ypa is low, showing an inefficiency and needing extra attempts to obtain those yards. EDIT* Forgot to look at comp % as well. It's high, so it shows a tendency for shorter passes when putting it side by side to ypa* Of all the quarterbacks who had 3,500 yards or more (14 quarterbacks), only Jay Cutler had a lower ypa.

 

Overall, I think Tannehill is an above average quarterback who would make Buffalo an instant Super Bowl contender with the pieces we have. Is he worth 77 mil over 4 years? Maybe not, but it's the price you pay in order to avoid the QB situation the Bills or Browns have been in.

Not inconsistent. It makes sense to have a higher number of attempts because it's unfair to lump him in with guys who have half or even a third of the attempts on INTs.

 

A better way of putting it: 8th in the NFL in attempts per interception.

Edited by Hoss
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Not inconsistent. It makes sense to have a higher number of attempts because it's unfair to lump him in with guys who have half or even a third of the attempts on INTs.

 

Why? If someone has half of the attempts but more interceptions then they have a higher INT rate which is good for Tannehill

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Why? If someone has half of the attempts but more interceptions then they have a higher INT rate which is good for Tannehill

Not really. It wouldn't bump him up the list. If somebody has one less INT on three hundred less attempts then it only hurts him. An unfair setup.

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Not really. It wouldn't bump him up the list. If somebody has one less INT on three hundred less attempts then it only hurts him. An unfair setup.

 

I was looking at it from most interceptions to least which admittedly was upside-down. Ok yeah when going from least interceptions to most 500 passing attempts was a good baseline to use. 

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It would be for Whaley. This team shouldn't have excuses to lose unless the pieces just don't fit which is on the GM. However, if he gets an extension done for Dareus and the team is set up well going into next offseason to add a QB I could see them saying "one more year." Regardless of what happens the GM should be focusing on just two things: re-signing big names (Dareus, Bradham, Gilmore, maybe Glenn) and finding a QB).

 

 

I'm not touching Brandon stuff because I believe he has rock-solid job security. That and I don't know enough about his job.

 

Good answer. 

 

Are they accountable? Sure. Should Whaley be fired? Not yet. He had 1 chance to draft a QB in a draft that didn't produce jack you-know-what at the position. And can anyone blame him for not taking a QB with our first pick last year after seeing EJ only play 10 games? It's easy to answer that question now with hindsight. And I'm no EJ apologetic either, I look forward to next year's QB class and hope there are a few quality quarterback prospects to draft in the first round no matter the outcome this season. But just because Whaley is 0-1 at drafting quarterbacks doesn't mean he should be packing his bags. And 9-7 is a very real possibility this season simply based on the quarterback situation. Pulling the chord on a GM too soon is worse than doing so with a HC. I've seen enough good moves from Whaley to believe he deserves more time.

You really need to get off the Brandon thing. As far as Whaley goes, what QB did he miss the boat on this year? It's not like Rivers was traded to another team. I'd hold Whaley much more accountable if the OL is garbage again because there were missed opportunities there. But if we're disappointing because of bad QB play I honestly don't know what he could have done differently.

 

I admit that Brandon is here to stay.  That doesn't mean that I agree with that decision.  But you are right that speculating about him getting canned is pointless.

 

In response to the "what was Whaley supposed to do?" refrain:  this is his THIRD offseason as GM.  He hasn't brought in a single QB capable of playing at a better-than-third-worst-in-the-NFL level.  He hasn't drafted any with a high pick.  Alex Smith changed teams and Jay Cutler was on the block.  He needed to do something. 

 

 

 

Full statement:

 

Assistant State Attorney Robert C. Elmore announced today that the Office of William "Bill" Eddins, State Attorney for the First Judicial Circuit of Florida, has dismissed the charges of misdemeanor Battery in the cases against Aaron A. Kromer and Zachery A. Kromer.

 

Charges were dismissed at the request of the parents of the two minor children who were the alleged victims in the two cases. The parents of the two alleged victims and the third minor witness stated that any injuries sustained by the alleged victims were minor and required no medical treatment, and that they desired that the lives of their children not be further disrupted, as an amicable resolution of the matter had been reached between all concerned. A copy of the hand written request to drop charges is attached with the names of the minor children redacted.

 

 

If charges vs Aaron Kroner are dropped, #Bills are expected to suspend him without pay at start of season. He would still work camp.

 

 

I'm guessing the "amicable resolution" cost ol' Aaron about $100K

 

 

 

 

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Good answer.

 

 

I admit that Brandon is here to stay. That doesn't mean that I agree with that decision. But you are right that speculating about him getting canned is pointless.

 

In response to the "what was Whaley supposed to do?" refrain: this is his THIRD offseason as GM. He hasn't brought in a single QB capable of playing at a better-than-third-worst-in-the-NFL level. He hasn't drafted any with a high pick. Alex Smith changed teams and Jay Cutler was on the block. He needed to do something.

 

 

 

I'm guessing the "amicable resolution" cost ol' Aaron about $100K

 

Whaley was named GM two months after Alex Smith was traded. The fact that Cutler is still a Bear given the climate of NFL quarterbacking should be your answer. The only quarterback drafted during Whaley's tenure that they had a shot at that may be a true NFL QB is Bridgewater.

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Here's a question for the Brandon/Whaley defenders:  if the Bills go 9-7 or 8-8 (or worse) this year, miss the playoffs and get bottom-5 QB play, are Brandon/Whaley accountable?  Would that be a fireable offense for Whaley?

 

Whaley, yes.  As you say above, there is no excuse for failing to bring even an average QB to the team in three seasons.

 

Right now, I'm hoping that Orton just didn't want to go to training camp again and that he signs in a few weeks.  I've just about given up on Manuel, given what Wawrow wrote.

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Whaley, yes.  As you say above, there is no excuse for failing to bring even an average QB to the team in three seasons.

 

Right now, I'm hoping that Orton just didn't want to go to training camp again and that he signs in a few weeks.  I've just about given up on Manuel, given what Wawrow wrote.

Why.. You don't like a qb that hops when he throws?

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As much as it pains me, I'm not sure how Whaley can be blamed for the QB situation. As someone asked, what could be have done differently?

 

Maybe not move up on Watkins? And then what?

 

Viable options at QB are far and few between. Who in the league has a QB situation that doesn't stink? It's less than half of the league, I think.

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You mean QBs are better against bad defenses? Sheesh. That's shocking.

 

Overall, fair point made. I just think Tannehill gets a lot of ###### because he's good not great and we have been terrible at the position for ages.

I would welcome him here. A guy I wouldn't? Andy Dalton. Eternally mediocre at best and getting paid like he's a franchise QB. I would rather have nothing than be crippled by hardly something.

 

On MVP candidacy: I think he could be a candidate if he takes a step up and the defense improves the way it should. Cameron is a better receiving threat than Clay was and he has some better options at WR. They should be a playoff team.

 

If you prefer, I could highlight his absolute turd bombs against bad defenses next time :nana:

 

Tannehill doesn't get dumped on because we're far worse off at the position, he gets dumped on because every time he plays us he...takes a dump, and that's the extent most fans see of him.

 

Whaley was named GM two months after Alex Smith was traded. The fact that Cutler is still a Bear given the climate of NFL quarterbacking should be your answer. The only quarterback drafted during Whaley's tenure that they had a shot at that may be a true NFL QB is Bridgewater.

 

And let's not pretend Alex Smith is anything special anyway. Two years ago when KC has a great season (and lost in the playoffs) he was 19th in the league in QBR. Last year when KC was disappointing...he was 19th in QBR. Would I take him over what we have? Of course. But I'd also be looking for something better each and every offseason he was here. He's basically the Roy/Connolly of QBs, and we all know how they got run out of town for not being good enough.

 

Fun stat: the year KC went 11-5 with Smith, he was only 4 spots above Manuel (who was a rookie) in QBR. May as well have just kept Fitzpatrick.

 

Whaley, yes.  As you say above, there is no excuse for failing to bring even an average QB to the team in three seasons.

 

Right now, I'm hoping that Orton just didn't want to go to training camp again and that he signs in a few weeks.  I've just about given up on Manuel, given what Wawrow wrote.

 

QBs you could consider average who have changed teams since Whaley took over: Smith, Foles, Fitzpatrick (there's some irony). The end.

 

And before you or anyone else brings up Bradford, I give you his QBR ranks since entering the league: 25th, 30th, 17th, injured, injured. 

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And to say Whaley had three off seasons is also incorrect. He was promoted to GM mid May 2013 after free agency and draft where over.

He was a part of free agency and it was known (at least internally) that he was getting the promotion. He has admitted that he had a large influence on the EJ and other picks. Was at the forefront in free agency. He's had three offseasons.

Edited by Hoss
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